FishingwithJesse Posted July 3, 2009 Report Share Posted July 3, 2009 Well said Jesse! Wanted to get your thoughts on this picture: I think she will go down to at least 89.66... NICE CHART ! It's down trend ....LOWER HIGHT AND LOWER LOWS ! NICE AND SIMPLE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FishingwithJesse Posted July 3, 2009 Report Share Posted July 3, 2009 GOLD /GLD : Break or Bounce ? I'm betting: Break, So Gold can follow Oil lower There's a different dance to dance everyday ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FishingwithJesse Posted July 3, 2009 Report Share Posted July 3, 2009 It's all up to $USD ... nothing else matters! Just My Thought ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FishingwithJesse Posted July 3, 2009 Report Share Posted July 3, 2009 It's all up to $USD ... nothing else matters! Just My Thought ! BTY : "STOCHASTICS" is a Momentum Oscillator The momentum oscillator measures the velocity of directional price movement. Momentum always changes direction (Trend) befor price. Like DIVERGENCE .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 3, 2009 Report Share Posted July 3, 2009 It's all up to $USD ... nothing else matters! Just My Thought ! chart : http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/3300/snap3q.gif I suppose I expect the Dollar to hold, and move higher To back that up, I shall review some Currency charts: A$-FXA : GBP-FXB : C$-FXC : EUR.FXE Comments: ======== + I can see further falls in: FXA (to maybe $75), FXB (to $160, then maybe $154), FXC (to $85, and maybe I will buy there), and FXE (to maybe $137) + So many mainstream people are bearish on the Dollar. Dont you think that those who wanted to sell would have sold already? EWI says that Dollar bulls are down to something like 5-6% which is very bullish + Seasonally, I can see weak gold and gold shares into August, maybe late August Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted July 3, 2009 Report Share Posted July 3, 2009 The following page has a nice little video (6 or 7 minutes) which summarizes in simple terms the essence of the Crisis of Credit (tech bust, subprime mortgages etc.). It doesn't really belong in this thread but anyway. http://www.tavex.fi/index.php?main=239&newsID=201 Good video. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LauraB Posted July 3, 2009 Report Share Posted July 3, 2009 The following page has a nice little video (6 or 7 minutes) which summarizes in simple terms the essence of the Crisis of Credit (tech bust, subprime mortgages etc.). It doesn't really belong in this thread but anyway. http://www.tavex.fi/index.php?main=239&newsID=201 Thxs wren, for something I can understand Off topic again, but I was just imagining the UK with a non-recourse home loan scenario .... oh boy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWIW Posted July 3, 2009 Report Share Posted July 3, 2009 NICE CHART ! It's down trend ....LOWER HIGHT AND LOWER LOWS ! NICE AND SIMPLE! Simple is good - means more traders will see it and act on it! Have a good 4th July!!! I hope the PPT are on their hols! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 3, 2009 Report Share Posted July 3, 2009 Please use the other thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=7032 I am going to park this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huntergatherer Posted July 3, 2009 Report Share Posted July 3, 2009 Indian monsoon late - more bad news for the local gold market SLUGGISH DEMAND Indian monsoon late - more bad news for the local gold market While Indian demand for gold jewellery and investment products has been painfully slow this year and looks like staying that way, a number of local incentives are underway to boost the industry Author: Rhona O'Connell Posted: Friday , 03 Jul 2009 LONDON - The Indian gold market has been very sluggish so far this year as high prices and straitened economic times have taken their toll. Figures from the World Gold Council (compiled by GFMS Ltd) showed that in the first quarter of the year scrap supplies were so strong that demand for investment bars and coins net of scrap was negative, with a return to the market of 17 tonnes, while jewellery demand for the quarter stood at just 34 tonnes against a quarterly average over the previous five years of 133.5 tonnes - an effective fall of 75%. While scrap return eased during the second quarter, anecdotal evidence suggests that the past three months have not painted a pretty picture either. The Bombay Bullion Association has reported that Indian gold imports were down 50% year-on-year in the first half of this year compared with the first six months of 2008. To put this into perspective, Indian gold jewellery and investment product demand is recorded by the WGC at 713 tonnes, compared with 769 tonnes in 2007 and 710 tonnes in 2006. If these import figures can be taken as a benchmark indicator pure and simple then this suggests a shortfall of some 350-400 tonnes in demand this year, but the early figures for demand suggest that the drop may well be larger. Jewellery fabricators have been reporting intermittent business, but appear to have come to the end of the wedding season with inventory in hand. Local prices, however, have not been especially kind to the market - generally speaking Indian prices have oscillated around international price levels and although the local market has been weak, prices have not dipped to enough of a discount to stimulate exports. As result, when (if) the jewellery markets pick up in September at the end of the monsoon season and before the important festivals such as Diwali, there may well be metal already in the country and available for sale. Trouble is, we don't yet know how strong the pick-up is likely to be and the latest bad news is meteorological. The monsoon is late and is expected to be below average for the first time in four years. This is potentially significant as the strength of the monsoon is obviously vital to the quality of the harvest and this in turn dictates the amount of funds that the farming community (which constitutes more than half the Indian population) has to hand when the harvest is in. Gold has traditionally been one of the primary purchases for the Indian agrarian population (although it is now having to compete to some extent with white goods, electronics and holidays), who typically account for between 60% and 70% of Indian gold purchases. A poor harvest will undermine gold buying and crop failures have already been reported. So a poor Indian market in the year to date does not look as if it is going to show much upside later in the year either. For the longer term, a number of incentives are underway for streamlining the industry that should make it more efficient and by association may be have a knock-on positive effect on demand. The Indian Bullion Market Association has been formed that should allow for a uniform gold price across the country as opposed to the prevailing system, which can result in sizeable variations. The domestic price will be determined on the basis of the trade flowing across the electronic platform set up by the National Spot Exchange Ltd (NSEL) and set as a benchmark twice a day - although the Managing Director of NSEL has said that a wholly uniform price will not be logistically feasible until the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax, due by March 2011. At an international level, the Bombay Bullion Association has recommended that local gold traders should be allowed to import gold directly rather than having to got through agencies or banks and is also lobbying for the removal of central sales tax on gold. The NSEL is also lobbying for the government to abolish the 2% customs duty currently level of imports of doré gold that is destined for local refineries in order to boost their flow of feedstock. The local industry is fragmented and working well below capacity - although its capacity itself is also small in the context of the market overall, at between three and four tonnes per annum. Plenty of moves afoot in the country, then, including innovations from NSEL in the form of mini-contracts from eight grammes up to one kilo as of the start of July (previously the contracts were denominated in 100 grammes and one kilo) as part of the NSEL ‘s push to raise its position among the world's gold price setters. Meanwhile, the depressed level of local demand means that India may continue to face a fight with China for the position as the world's largest gold consumer. China won the first quarter this year; will it have won the second quarter? http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/minewe...1&sn=Detail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted July 4, 2009 Report Share Posted July 4, 2009 Off topic again, but I was just imagining the UK with a non-recourse home loan scenario .... oh boy! That would be really something. So many of the poor old Brits are stuck as basically debt slaves with 20 or more years largely working for the bank. I remember when I was about 15 I wondered about the total number of mortgages in the UK. I knew that some decades before (like 1950) most of the general population did not own their home. I also knew that many like my parents had "bought" a house and were paying off the mortgage. So at that time about 1980 I began to wonder whether in time most of the housing would be owned by ordinary people and why there were still so many with mortgages and not fully owning. I couldn't fathom out why. Of course, some who inherit would blow the money on booze, fast women and fast cars and probably waste the rest (RIP George Best) but most wouldn't. I still don't have a model clarified in my mind. But little did I then know the secrets of money and financial manias which are a great way to get much of the population massively in debt. And nowadays there are credit cards too. It's probably just as well that I had no understanding of the monetary and banking system otherwise I would have been tempted to become an evil bankster. Just me rambling on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorSolar Posted July 4, 2009 Report Share Posted July 4, 2009 According to Paul Hill in the latest edition of moneyweek: "Gold is in a bubble". His justification for this stance is: 1) Demand for jewellery has fallen 25% due to sky high prices 2) The german company selling gold from vending machines "smacks of taxi drivers tipping internet stocks in 1999" 3) Drought of merger and acquisition activity 4) Gold has failed to consolidate above $1000 "a surefire sign that prices are out of kilter with fundamentals" A bubble!? No one and I mean no one I personally know has ANY money allocated to a gold investment. Most would not have the first clue how to do so. Companies on TV are wanting to buy your gold not sell you it. This is not the stuff of which bubbles are made. Only time will tell but to me from here: Gold vending machine != shoe shine boy IMHO No doubt this view will be a sign there is too much bullishness around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted July 4, 2009 Report Share Posted July 4, 2009 No bubble. If one checks the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI), the green line, we'd be coming close to the top of the 1980's, then yes I would agree, it's a bubble. But not currently. If the momentum can continue, gold would be well past $2000/oz, if a 1980 event happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted July 4, 2009 Report Share Posted July 4, 2009 I don't know if anyone else has done this Larger http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_szcRIfzGg8U/Sk63...1600-h/blow.jpg We could be at the start of a parabolic rise, right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InSilverWeTrust Posted July 4, 2009 Report Share Posted July 4, 2009 Things are not as they seem! Time is running out..The dash for assets has begun (for us). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted July 4, 2009 Report Share Posted July 4, 2009 I don't know if anyone else has done this Larger http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_szcRIfzGg8U/Sk63...1600-h/blow.jpg We could be at the start of a parabolic rise, right now... I seem to remember making that point last year or before. Yes, early days, no where near the top. In fact not really even at the end of the start, more the start of the start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FishingwithJesse Posted July 4, 2009 Report Share Posted July 4, 2009 BTY : "STOCHASTICS" is a Momentum Oscillator The momentum oscillator measures the velocity of directional price movement. Momentum always changes direction (Trend) befor price. Like DIVERGENCE .. THE TAPE TELLS THE STORY !...KNOWLEDGE WILL GIVE YOU AN EDGE !! Last Updated: July 3, 2009 18:00 EDT India Joins Russia, China in Questioning U.S. Dollar Dominance By Mark Deen and Isabelle Mas July 4 (Bloomberg) -- Suresh Tendulkar, an economic adviser to Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, said he is urging the government to diversify its $264.6 billion foreign-exchange reserves and hold fewer dollars. “The major part of Indian reserves are in dollars -- that is something that’s a problem for us,” Tendulkar, chairman of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council, said in an interview yesterday in Aix-en-Provence, France, where he was attending an economic conference. Singh is preparing to join leaders from the Group of Eight industrialized nations -- the U.S., Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Italy, Canada and Russia -- at a summit in Italy next week which is due to tackle the global economy. China and Brazil will also send representative to the summit. As the talks have neared, China and Russia have stepped up calls for a rethink of how global currency reserves are composed and managed, underlining a power shift to emerging markets from the developed nations that spawned the financial crisis. “There should be a system to maintain the stability of the major reserve currencies,” Former Chinese Vice Premier Zeng Peiyan said in a speech in Beijing yesterday, highlighting China’s concerns about a global financial system dominated by the dollar. Fiscal and current-account deficits must be supervised as “your currency is likely to become my problem,” said Zeng, who is now the head of a research center under the government’s top economic planning agency. The People’s Bank of China said June 26 that the International Monetary Fund should manage more of members’ reserves. Russian Proposals Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has repeatedly called for creating a mix of regional reserve currencies as part of the drive to address the global financial crisis, while questioning the dollar’s future as a global reserve currency. Russia’s proposals for the Group of 20 major developed and developing nations summit in London in April included the creation of a supranational currency. “We will resume” talks on the supranational currency proposal at the G-8 summit in L’Aquila on July 8-10, Medvedev aide Sergei Prikhodko told reporters in Moscow yesterday. Singh adviser Tendulkar said that big dollar holders face a “prisoner’s dilemma” in terms of managing their holdings. “That’s why I’m telling them to do this,” he said. He also said that world currencies need to adjust to help unwind trade imbalances that have contributed to the global financial crisis. “The major imbalances which led to the current situation, the current account surpluses and deficits, have to be addressed,” he said. “Currency adjustment is one thing that suggests itself.” Emerging-Market Dependence For all the complaints about the dollar, emerging markets such as India remain dependent on the currency of the U.S., the world’s largest economy and a $2.5 trillion export market. The IMF said June 30 that the share of dollars in global foreign- exchange reserves increased to 65 percent in the first three months of this year, the highest since 2007. Tendulkar said that the matter needs to be taken up in international talks, and that it emphasizes the need for those talks to go beyond the traditional G-8. “They can meet if they want to,” he said. “The G-20 has a wider role, has representation of the countries that are likely to lead the recovery process.” To contact the reporters on this story: Mark Deen in Aix en Provence, France at markdeen@bloomberg.net; Isabelle Mas in Aix en Provence, France at imas2@bloomberg.net. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aR7yfqUwTb4M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 4, 2009 Report Share Posted July 4, 2009 THE TAPE TELLS THE STORY !...KNOWLEDGE WILL GIVE YOU AN EDGE !! Last Updated: July 3, 2009 18:00 EDT India Joins Russia, China in Questioning U.S. Dollar Dominance By Mark Deen and Isabelle Mas July 4 (Bloomberg) -- Suresh Tendulkar, an economic adviser to Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, said he is urging the government to diversify its $264.6 billion foreign-exchange reserves and hold fewer dollars. “The major part of Indian reserves are in dollars -- that is something that’s a problem for us,” Tendulkar, chairman of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council, said in an interview yesterday in Aix-en-Provence, France, where he was attending an economic conference. This news is already "in the price", else the $ would be moving each time we see another of these very similar stories. LET'S SEE ... if SPX and Gold fall at the same time again Gold (GLD) versus Stocks (SPY) ... update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BelfastBoy Posted July 4, 2009 Report Share Posted July 4, 2009 Of course, some who inherit would blow the money on booze, fast women and fast cars and probably waste the rest (RIP George Best) but most wouldn't. George Best also used to go Missing a lot... Miss UK, Miss Canada, Miss World. 2) The german company selling gold from vending machines "smacks of taxi drivers tipping internet stocks in 1999" I was thinking that the shoe shine boy moment will be when the boy at the car wash is telling people to buy gold. After all the preferred form of transport in 1929 was shoes. Now it is cars. Tenuous link I know. (I always wash my own car. So I will never know.) So are people giving up on the idea that the average UK house will at some point, in the next 5 years, be below 100 ounces - or that the DJIA will equal 1 ounce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted July 4, 2009 Report Share Posted July 4, 2009 So are people giving up on the idea that the average UK house will at some point, in the next 5 years, be below 100 ounces - or that the DJIA will equal 1 ounce. Not sure about the parabolic bit, but it seems perfectly sensible to me that house prices could half while gold doubles in the next few years. Due primarily to credit contraction replacing credit expansion [we have already seen inflation; credit is most definitely a monetary phenomenon]. Reflationary policies to counteract deflation in asset prices will only serve to weaken the currency... a depreciated currency will be the cause of rising gold prices not inflation. Gold remains comfortably above 900 because in the eyes of the biggest and savviest investors, post QE, it has been monetized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FishingwithJesse Posted July 4, 2009 Report Share Posted July 4, 2009 This news is already "in the price", else the $ would be moving each time we see another of these very similar stories. LET'S SEE ... if SPX and Gold fall at the same time again Gold (GLD) versus Stocks (SPY) ... update You may be right! But, "I'm Bullish on Gold, and tight Trailing stop on AAPL" As for overall risk aversion, the Foreign exchange market is dependent on equities and commodities. If they fall for whatever reason, the us dollar rate immediately gets the benefit. It may be tiresome to keep reminding, "but remember that these intermarket correlations are unreliable". They are strongest when conditions are panicky and uncertainty is high, but they tend to fall apart when one group gets a grip. Part of the current problem is that Foreign Exchange volumes have been low of late. This raises the opportunity for a single player to have undue influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FishingwithJesse Posted July 4, 2009 Report Share Posted July 4, 2009 "LAW OF CAUSE AND EFFECT" I LOVE IT! Trader Adam Hewison looks at the same pattern in a new video and comes to the same conclusions I do … From: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted July 4, 2009 Report Share Posted July 4, 2009 So are people giving up on the idea that the average UK house will at some point, in the next 5 years, be below 100 ounces - or that the DJIA will equal 1 ounce. I reckon an average UK house will go to 120 oz - very likely - 100 oz fairly likely, and lower than that possible. The dow/gold will go to 2.0 - very likely - and 1.0 possible. There's a not so outside chance that those ratios will go to extremes never seen before: like house 60 oz and doe/gold well below 1.0. We need to be patient. The big ratios are going in the direction we expect but it takes some years of patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catflap Posted July 4, 2009 Report Share Posted July 4, 2009 I just can't see the dollar going higher - the fundamentals are absolutely awful, it's very bearish technically and seasonally it's bearish from this point in the post-election cycle: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j4lch3Vsfmg http://www.seasonalcharts.com/zyklen_wahl_usdx4j.html All points to another move higher for stocks and gold IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted July 4, 2009 Report Share Posted July 4, 2009 I reckon an average UK house will go to 120 oz - very likely - 100 oz fairly likely, and lower than that possible. The dow/gold will go to 2.0 - very likely - and 1.0 possible. There's a not so outside chance that those ratios will go to extremes never seen before: like house 60 oz and doe/gold well below 1.0. We need to be patient. The big ratios are going in the direction we expect but it takes some years of patience. This is the way I think. Long-term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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