wren Posted June 20, 2009 Report Share Posted June 20, 2009 Just a reminder about what the history says gold does during periods of deflation (whatever happened to Magpie? ). Adrian Ash of BV has just published a gold article with this interesting table of the historical performance of gold and silver. As you see gold solidly does well in deflations (silver's performance is a bit mixed): Here's the article (I haven't read the whole article yet): http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/ash061709.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliveandkicking Posted June 20, 2009 Report Share Posted June 20, 2009 It will. But every now and then people come along and write a whole (and lengthy) bunch of nonsense. One has to counter this somewhat, but not too much, because some of them get paid by the number of responses they get to their drivel (that's at least what I heard). Yes i heard that people talk their book and have websites to promote their positions too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorSolar Posted June 20, 2009 Report Share Posted June 20, 2009 Yes i heard that people talk their book and have websites to promote their positions too. Excuse me for interrupting your cat fight But did you ever get that silver grudge bet set up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HPCsoYESTERDAY Posted June 20, 2009 Report Share Posted June 20, 2009 Excuse me for interrupting your cat fight But did you ever get that silver grudge bet set up? it was me who offered the grudge bet and a&k bottled it declined proceeds to chariteeee an' all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorSolar Posted June 20, 2009 Report Share Posted June 20, 2009 it was me who offered the grudge bet and a&k bottled it declined proceeds to chariteeee an' all Aw that's a pity. I eat my own cooking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliveandkicking Posted June 20, 2009 Report Share Posted June 20, 2009 it was me who offered the grudge bet and a&k bottled it declined proceeds to chariteeee an' all It was you who decided there was a grudge match to be settled because of your feelings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HPCsoYESTERDAY Posted June 20, 2009 Report Share Posted June 20, 2009 It was you who decided there was a grudge match to be settled because of your feelings. bit of fun a&k, bit of fun 'tis all in fact, I owe you thanks for prompting me to re-evaluate my position and build in the contingency of buying ridiculously cheap silver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted June 20, 2009 Report Share Posted June 20, 2009 It will. But every now and then people come along and write a whole (and lengthy) bunch of nonsense. One has to counter this somewhat, but not too much, because some of them get paid by the number of responses they get to their drivel (that's at least what I heard). I thought for a minute we were back on Jon Nadler :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted June 20, 2009 Report Share Posted June 20, 2009 That's quite a confusing matrix, draw your own conclusions... When I have some time I will try to plot the rate of deflation/inflation against this, it could be quite telling. I feel there is something missing from this matrix. Just a reminder about what the history says gold does during periods of deflation (whatever happened to Magpie? ). Adrian Ash of BV has just published a gold article with this interesting table of the historical performance of gold and silver. As you see gold solidly does well in deflations (silver's performance is a bit mixed): Here's the article (I haven't read the whole article yet): http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/ash061709.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
id5 Posted June 21, 2009 Report Share Posted June 21, 2009 Just a reminder about what the history says gold does during periods of deflation (whatever happened to Magpie? ). Adrian Ash of BV has just published a gold article with this interesting table of the historical performance of gold and silver. As you see gold solidly does well in deflations (silver's performance is a bit mixed): ... Here's the article (I haven't read the whole article yet): http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/ash061709.html An interesting dataset where its graphical form shows the separation between gold and silver coinciding with the Industrial Revolution in the 1800's and the leap in the value of gold during the Great Depression. The last few entries shows that silver and gold flipped as the world tried to get out of the Great Depression by suppressing the value of gold. Does this chart show that the root of the present monetary problems can be traced back to the Industrial Revolution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Pipples Posted June 21, 2009 Report Share Posted June 21, 2009 Got this mailed through today: The Analysis of Sentiment Suggests that PMs Are Likely to Shine Once Again - http://sunshineprofits.com/commentary/20-jun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted June 21, 2009 Report Share Posted June 21, 2009 Got this mailed through today: The Analysis of Sentiment Suggests that PMs Are Likely to Shine Once Again - http://sunshineprofits.com/commentary/20-jun Thanks for posting this the gold miners bullish percent index looks like a very useful tool for timing trades in gold miners, i didn't know it existed. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPG...id=p47852853571 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliveandkicking Posted June 21, 2009 Report Share Posted June 21, 2009 http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/ash061709.html interesting table. The article show this data is using the British pound to compare to gold and shows 241% rise in gold relative to the british pound from 1920 to 1933. From Wiki: As had happened after previous major wars, the UK was returned to the gold standard in 1925, by a somewhat reluctant Winston Churchill. Although a higher gold price and significant inflation had followed the wartime suspension, Churchill followed tradition by resuming conversion payments at the pre-war gold price. For five years prior to 1925 the gold price was managed downward to the pre-war level, causing deflation throughout those countries of the British Empire and Commonwealth using the Pound Sterling. But the rise in demand for gold for conversion payments that followed the similar European resumptions from 1925 to 1928 meant a further rise in demand for gold relative to goods and therefore the need for a lower price of goods because of the fixed rate of conversion from money to goods. In order to attract gold, Britain needed to increase the value of investing in their domestic assets. They needed to increase the demand for the pound. By doing this, Britain attracted gold from the stronger US, which decreased the US money supply as well as depressed Britain’s own economy. Because of these price declines and predictable depressionary effects, the British government finally abandoned the standard September 21, 1931. Sweden abandoned the gold standard in October 1931 if britain chose to increase the value of the pound to get back on the gold standard and then had to continue doing this dispite the collapse in British prices, golds proven record in deflationary periods seems a flawed idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
id5 Posted June 21, 2009 Report Share Posted June 21, 2009 An interesting dataset where its graphical form shows the separation between gold and silver coinciding with the Industrial Revolution in the 1800's and the leap in the value of gold during the Great Depression. The last few entries shows that silver and gold flipped as the world tried to get out of the Great Depression by suppressing the value of gold. Does this chart show that the root of the present monetary problems can be traced back to the Industrial Revolution? ... I have just dug out some dat I have on the value of gold and silver from 1900 and I now think that the dataset from the article from Gold Eagle that Wren pointed to in his post is wrong. Here is the price of gold and silver in GBP from 1900. 1 GBP worth of gold has the same buying power as 1 GBP woth of silver and the value lines don't cross so why do the purchasing power of the metals cross in the Gold Eagle article? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliveandkicking Posted June 21, 2009 Report Share Posted June 21, 2009 why do the purchasing power of the metals cross in the Gold Eagle article? I dont think they do. The graphed version of the table is showing relative changes? The purchasing power of gold did not fall as shown at the end of the graph it just increased more slowly whereas silver increased much more rapidly. From 1920 to 1979 the table shows the purchasing power of gold increased 283 times Silver increased 268 times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
id5 Posted June 21, 2009 Report Share Posted June 21, 2009 I dont think they do. The graphed version of the table is showing relative changes? The purchasing power of gold did not fall as shown at the end of the graph it just increased more slowly whereas silver increased much more rapidly. From 1920 to 1979 the table shows the purchasing power of gold increased 283 times Silver increased 268 times When the two consecutive periods are joined, you can see the relative growth but data gives the impression that it would have been advantageous to swap silver for gold to gain greater purchasing power from 1934 to 1979, where in reality from the graph of detail that I produced it shows that this was not really the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted June 22, 2009 Report Share Posted June 22, 2009 "See Whitey Run" By the Max Keiser Chiefs Mixed by The Herb Whisperer Whitey is doing a runner Whitey is doing a runner Whitey racked up 250 trillion dollars worth of debts and now is trying to run away http://whitey.cf.huffingtonpost.com/ :D :D :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aardvark Posted June 22, 2009 Report Share Posted June 22, 2009 curious time of day for drop..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinecu Posted June 22, 2009 Report Share Posted June 22, 2009 curious time of day for drop..... Strange indeed... ten bucks down to $923 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nicejim Posted June 22, 2009 Report Share Posted June 22, 2009 http://whitey.cf.huffingtonpost.com/ :D :D :D Very cool. Max often mentions Refco but I'd never looked into it until today. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refco Prior to its collapse in October, 2005, the firm had over $4 billion in approximately 200,000 customer accounts, and it was the largest broker on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The firm's balance sheet at the time of the collapse showed about $75 billion in assets and a roughly equal amount in liabilities. Though these filings have since been disowned by the company, they are probably roughly accurate in showing the firm's level of leverage. Refco became a public company on August 11, 2005 with the sale of 26.5 million shares to the public at $22. Leverage up, fake the accounts, round up the sheep, steal the wealth and let it go BOOM! A model Wall Street enterprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWIW Posted June 22, 2009 Report Share Posted June 22, 2009 I am still observing the Gold Cup & Handle formation as I believe this week will be a key week for gold. I am looking at 3 key peices of information: 1) 916 act as resistance and support in past - will 916 area hold? 2) 38.2% Fib level is very close to 916 level (If you draw the fib disregarding the shadows then it is bang on) 3) 100 day simple moving average is very close and may act as support. Anybody like to discuss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted June 22, 2009 Report Share Posted June 22, 2009 I am still observing the Gold Cup & Handle formation as I believe this week will be a key week for gold. I am looking at 3 key peices of information: 1) 916 act as resistance and support in past - will 916 area hold? 2) 38.2% Fib level is very close to 916 level (If you draw the fib disregarding the shadows then it is bang on) 3) 100 day simple moving average is very close and may act as support. Anybody like to discuss? I am sticking with 900 support. I would be surprised to see pog go too far below this due mostly to investor concerns over currency weakness. My outlook for the summer is after a brief period of dollar strength, we may see the dollar weaken again which would see everything up. After the summer could be interesting with a complete reversal due to deterioration in the economy and perhaps a full on deflation scare. I liked Frank Barbera's take that gold may go lower here... then reverse to go to somewhere around 1200 or so. I would add to that it may reverse once again to possibly back below 1000 [nothing sacrosanct about that number] on the back of a deflation trade at the end of summer. Prechter is expecting the same sort of trade to Barbera in the stock markets. Interesting times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexreeve Posted June 22, 2009 Report Share Posted June 22, 2009 I am still observing the Gold Cup & Handle formation as I believe this week will be a key week for gold. I am looking at 3 key peices of information: 1) 916 act as resistance and support in past - will 916 area hold? 2) 38.2% Fib level is very close to 916 level (If you draw the fib disregarding the shadows then it is bang on) 3) 100 day simple moving average is very close and may act as support. Anybody like to discuss? http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1245132000.php We’d projected a drop in the August contract to 925.50 per ounce to begin with, and yesterday that target was very nearly reached on a low of 926.50. We were buyers there, but we’d buy even more if our target gives way and August Gold eases down to the next “Hidden Pivot,” $918. $918 August Gold would put the spot price pretty close to $916 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWIW Posted June 22, 2009 Report Share Posted June 22, 2009 http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1245132000.php $918 August Gold would put the spot price pretty close to $916 918.41 is the exact level of my 38.2 fib (using shadows as per picture)... As my forex book keeps telling me, these are area's of support and not exact entry targets! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWIW Posted June 22, 2009 Report Share Posted June 22, 2009 Thought I'd put on my TA hat for the monthly gold chart. Something really interesting lept out at me in this chart. Can you see the 12 month SMA is acting as resistance and then support? The fact it also looks to have flat lined could be a conspiracy theory post in itself, but let's not go there (yet). It also coincides nicely with a 61.8% fib... Also, I drew 2 Median Lines, one from 2004 and one at the same angle for credit crunch era (2008). Can you see the ascending triangle with the 100% fib level? If my daily 916 doesn't hold, then my monthly 904.55 will be where the fight happens, and if that does not hold then 880 will be where wars break out. I don't know or really care how much gold will go to; I only care that when I buy my physical the spot price is the lowest. Is there anyone out there who has a different opinion? I am open for alternative views or even views that support me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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