wren Posted June 17, 2009 Report Share Posted June 17, 2009 @ dooferdog Who's that bloke in your avatar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted June 17, 2009 Report Share Posted June 17, 2009 His screen name is Monkey from a quality show of the same name. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monkey_(TV_series) @ dooferdog Who's that bloke in your avatar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted June 17, 2009 Report Share Posted June 17, 2009 His screen name is Monkey from a quality show of the same name. Thanks. I'd never heard of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nicejim Posted June 18, 2009 Report Share Posted June 18, 2009 The nature of Monkey was...IRREPRESSIBLE! From: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5iUMWy4hqAg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted June 18, 2009 Report Share Posted June 18, 2009 As for the price of gold i was earlier responding to the idea the USD was about to become worthless which seems pretty unlikely to me for the reasons i pointed out. Probably by early 2010 some kind of bottom will be in place for US housing. Meanwhile the financial crisis is spreading into the real economy around the world and all currencies are going to suffer i would imagine. There are actually relatively very few USD in the world. The rest are USD which are owed to other people. Since people are paying what they owe back and some are losing what is owed the relative amount of money that people think of as USD is declining and the real amount is not really rising dispite the actions of central banks. Therefore the USD could rise because the USD is the real thing that backs most of what people imagine is the USD, which is in fact commercial bank money denominated in USD. Very counter intuitive but it reflects the realities of banking. For myself, I do not think the US dollar will become worthless but worth less, perhaps a devaluation of around 50% from current levels. Also, this does not mean the dollar can not spike to higher levels which I think is quite likely. About the value of cash in regards to US dollars [as opposed to debt instruments such as US treasuries] here is my opinion on another post. http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=112780 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sylvester Posted June 18, 2009 Report Share Posted June 18, 2009 The nature of Monkey was...IRREPRESSIBLE! From: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5iUMWy4hqAg Ah fantastic memories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted June 18, 2009 Report Share Posted June 18, 2009 Capital is between a rock and a hard place here. Best to go into the hardest asset of gold. maybe not just yet. The drop in Oil shares and Food shares may be telling us something / see: "whiff of deflation" thread Are we going to see wage cuts spread out around the world ?? It seems to be starting in the US and in Hong Kong, but isnt showing in the UK yet. Alternatively, are we going to see severe Stagflation, and rising inflation hit the UK first ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliveandkicking Posted June 18, 2009 Report Share Posted June 18, 2009 maybe not just yet. The drop in Oil shares and Food shares may be telling us something / see: "whiff of deflation" thread Are we going to see wage cuts spread out around the world ?? It seems to be starting in the US and in Hong Kong, but isnt showing in the UK yet. Alternatively, are we going to see severe Stagflation, and rising inflation hit the UK first ? How are wages going to rise to enable higher prices to result in buying? Less buying means less demand means less money to pay higher wages. If people see inflation there has to be a mechanism for it. If money is not spent there can be none of this 'inflation is always a monetary phenonema' thing to drive prices higher. Will the government buy all products of all firms in all of the world? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorSolar Posted June 18, 2009 Report Share Posted June 18, 2009 How are wages going to rise to enable higher prices to result in buying? Less buying means less demand means less money to pay higher wages. If people see inflation there has to be a mechanism for it. If money is not spent there can be none of this 'inflation is always a monetary phenonema' thing to drive prices higher. Will the government buy all products of all firms in all of the world? If your currency collapses relative to the nations you import goods from you get high inflation (by that i mean cost of goods goes up). This happens regardless of the fact that people are spending less, wages cut and high unemployment. Just look at Iceland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted June 18, 2009 Report Share Posted June 18, 2009 If your currency collapses relative to the nations you import goods from you get high inflation (by that i mean cost of goods goes up). This happens regardless of the fact that people are spending less, wages cut and high unemployment. Just look at Iceland. Yes, it would not be the "cost-push" inflation of the seventies where prices inflated due to a wage/price spiral [and obviously not demand-pull inflation] but more of what has been referred to as "shop" inflation where commodities and consumables become more expensive due to a depreciating currency. At a macro level this could be referred to as a hyper-deflation where downward pressure is not only put on asset prices but also on the unit of currency [due to floating on the international stage]. Given the cross currents involved here for prices, prices would become deceptive if they remained central to any analysis. However, demand destruction could conceivably restrain inflation in prices. And no hyper-inflationary psychology could develop if prices did not quickly inflate. With money becoming less abundant, people will want to hoard it, even if the real value is eroding. This erosion of value could be measured only perhaps against stronger currencies. Edited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliveandkicking Posted June 18, 2009 Report Share Posted June 18, 2009 If your currency collapses relative to the nations you import goods from you get high inflation (by that i mean cost of goods goes up). This happens regardless of the fact that people are spending less, wages cut and high unemployment. Just look at Iceland. Fair enuf we can observe Iceland. The government which took control of some of the main banks who were exposed to foreign currency in turn got large loans from the IMF and other local nations. Meanwhile the currency which had been in trouble for years was in more trouble. If people owned gold in Iceland and they now have debts are they going to keep the gold or are they going to use the gold to pay down their debts and enable them to import food and essential goods? What about in the USA? If your main assets are your properties and they have collapsed in value and the bank wants you to sell some securities or sell something to reduce your debt overall will you keep your expensive gold or sell your cheap assets? So fresh fruit and vegetables and quality luxury proteins get expensive.........do you buy them or buy what is cheaper? Who here does their own food shopping? Who here observed their mum carefully selecting the cheapest foods and getting the product with the best price to weight advantage and then found that with a busy life they are unable themselves to do what mum did and they simply zoom into the shops and then out again as quickly as possible? But now they take a bit longer? They look at the receipts and wonder where the hell the money is all going? Chicken for example is 2.25 euro per kilo in the local supermarket. ,potato 0.69 Salmon 12, cheese 9.7. NZ roasting lamb, 5.39 cheap sausages 5. Obviously i am going to personally eat more chicken and potato meals - and like it. Presumably the Icelanders are going to be enjoying fish and seal and whale with potatos? For example the biggest wine market for french wine is the UK. How are French wine farmers getting on? Last i heard not so good. Is French wine cheaper? If your family had vineyards for generations are you going to sell the vineyards 'cheaply' or sell some other assets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nicejim Posted June 18, 2009 Report Share Posted June 18, 2009 Gold in the media again. Bullionvault.com interview on Motley fool: http://www.fool.co.uk/money-talk/gold-to-h...ounce-3342.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted June 18, 2009 Report Share Posted June 18, 2009 Russia Makes the First Call for the Monetization of Gold June 17, 2009 Russia is proposing the inclusion of the ruble, yuan and gold as a part of a revised basket of currencies to form the valuation of the IMF’s special drawing rights seen as the coming new alternative global reserve currency, reported AP. At a summit meeting yesterday, Russia and China challenged the reserve currency status of the dollar with two initiatives, while at the same time professing their support for the greenback in which both countries have huge bond holdings. <snip snip> That gold should be included in SDRs is a new proposal, and likely to be seen among Arabs and investors around the world as a further reason to buy gold at present prices. All the studies into the monetization of gold have concluded that the value of the precious metal would soar under such a scenario because of its relatively tight supply. It would therefore seem logical for anybody planning to buy a few ounces or 100 tons of the precious metal to buy before prices start to really escalate. For gold it would seem the only way for prices is up as it becomes part of the world’s fight back against inflation and devaluation of the US dollar. http://seekingalpha.com/article/143662-rus...ization-of-gold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gatesy Posted June 19, 2009 Report Share Posted June 19, 2009 You think gold has 'topped' then? Er, no. What I was trying to point out was that I don't think gold has topped. I was comparing the current situation in the 'mass market' for gold (such as I don't think really exists) with the property market at it's top, not the gold market's top. ie. At the top of the property market the media and papers were flooded with organisations (builders, estate agents etc) selling to the market (cashing in), not buying from the market. A second wave of smart investors (and I would classify the gold party organisers buying up gold from willing punters as such, if not as early smart money) has appeared to buy up gold as they obviously think it's value will rise. I do think this is a clear sign of market development. When there is a flood of gold sellers, selling to the willing mass punters, not from them, as with property at the height, then that to me may be a sign of an impending top. Hope that's sort of clear, as it's been rather a long week , again and these forums are not the easiest place to articulate your thoughts at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted June 19, 2009 Author Report Share Posted June 19, 2009 Jim Sinclair seems to think that the next move will be a big one up. Ignore the noise (also the one on here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted June 20, 2009 Report Share Posted June 20, 2009 It's a simple choice. Do you want tally sticks or gold/silver? The Secret History of Government Debt One of the biggest lies in history is the idea that government debt is a “safe haven.” Today we’re going to revisit one of The Sovereign Society’s favorite “hidden histories” for the real scoop… It was one of the greatest heists in history. The scene? London, 1660. The perpetrator? King Charles the II...of England. The loot? All the gold he could con out of the country's goldsmiths, bankers and businessmen in a lifetime. The tool? A stick. A Tally Stick. ... Which was a real shame for him…because it bound him to the laws of Christendom. And Christianity at the time still forbade lending or borrowing with 'usury' (interest). So he had trouble in terms of "living like a king" and financing several failing wars against various neighbors. Instead he turned to the trusted tally...and the keen idea of selling his (government) tallies (debt) at a discount. That way, he could allow his lenders to profit without charging interest...it's the basis for government debt being sold at a discount today. And he could issue advance tallies for 'emergency spending'...an idea that proved all too tempting. He sold the tallies collected by his Excheqeur (tax collector) from the country's Sheriffs, essentially trading future tax receipts to the country's goldsmiths (bankers) for quick cash. The tallies were receipts for taxes to be paid later in the year...and this is a crucial part of the story. http://www.sovereignsociety.com/2009Archiv...59/Default.aspx In case you don't know, the tally sticks: So with the stroke of a pen, the King simply declared those debts illegal and ceased payment. It is – as they say – good to be the king. With that single stroke he stole a huge amount of the country's gold - having already spent it - and forced the young economy to fall flat on its face. The King's various creditors ended up on 'the short end of the stick' (again, this is the source of that expression) and all credit in the country evaporated pretty much overnight. But Wait 'til you Hear What Happened to the Sticks... The sticks were still in use for over a century afterward...the Bank of England even had some on their books when they opened in 1694. But in 1834, Parliament ordered all the sticks be destroyed and the system finally retired. The men at the furnace were happy to comply...and so too - apparently - were the sticks themselves. The fire overwhelmed the Parliament building's basement furnace and burnt the building to the ground. Gold doesn't burn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliveandkicking Posted June 20, 2009 Report Share Posted June 20, 2009 Jim Sinclair seems to think that the next move will be a big one up. Ignore the noise (also the one on here). If your case is so good it will speak for itself or does it only work when talked up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted June 20, 2009 Report Share Posted June 20, 2009 In case you don't know, the tally sticks: Gold doesn't burn. Haha. I'd heard about tally sticks but didn't know they burnt down the parliament building. The wrath of the (money) gods. "The short end of the stick" makes sense now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted June 20, 2009 Report Share Posted June 20, 2009 If your case is so good it will speak for itself or does it only work when talked up? The 'case' (as you put it) speaks for itself. Have you looked at the ten year gold chart recently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted June 20, 2009 Report Share Posted June 20, 2009 More on the inverse head and shoulders in gold by Frank Barbera on 1st hour FS NewsTeam He seems to confirm that the inverse head and shoulders is valid, he has been talking about it in his newsletter for the last three weeks. He has made me realise I was looking for it to complete too soon. He thinks we could pull back to $860-$870 over the next few weeks, with the right shoulder becoming more defined. What are others thoughts on this inverse head and shoulders, as when I pointed it out it was discounted as it not at the end of a downtrend, but formed during an uptrend. I still feel it could happen at any time over the next month, better to be in it than miss it. http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2009-0620-1.mp3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted June 20, 2009 Report Share Posted June 20, 2009 More on the inverse head and shoulders in gold by Frank Barbera on 1st hour FS NewsTeam He seems to confirm that the inverse head and shoulders is valid, he has been talking about it in his newsletter for the last three weeks. He has made me realise I was looking for it to complete too soon. He thinks we could pull back to $860-$870 over the next few weeks, with the right shoulder becoming more defined. What are others thoughts on this inverse head and shoulders, as when I pointed it out it was discounted as it not at the end of a downtrend, but formed during an uptrend. I still feel it could happen at any time over the next month, better to be in it than miss it. http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2009-0620-1.mp3 What is "it"? That gold goes through $1000? Barbera thinks the stock market could test the lows at the end of this year... this would be a good time for gold to go to 1200 or so. Morgan is more in this camp also. But then I might be biased due to wanting to buy over the summer. Or alternatively, if the market continues to alternate between deflation and inflation scares, it would be quite possible for gold to 1200 on inflation fear to in turn go to 900 on another bout of deflation fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorSolar Posted June 20, 2009 Report Share Posted June 20, 2009 If your case is so good it will speak for itself or does it only work when talked up? Goodness me its all getting rather "handbags at dawn" round here isn't it Great to have opposing views from folks who are clearly passionate though. Did the grudge bet over silver get set up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted June 20, 2009 Author Report Share Posted June 20, 2009 If your case is so good it will speak for itself or does it only work when talked up? It will. But every now and then people come along and write a whole (and lengthy) bunch of nonsense. One has to counter this somewhat, but not too much, because some of them get paid by the number of responses they get to their drivel (that's at least what I heard). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted June 20, 2009 Report Share Posted June 20, 2009 It will. But every now and then people come along and write a whole (and lengthy) bunch of nonsense. One has to counter this somewhat, but not too much, because some of them get paid by the number of responses they get to their drivel (that's at least what I heard). You made it to CA yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
headmelter Posted June 20, 2009 Report Share Posted June 20, 2009 The tallies were receipts for taxes to be paid later in the year...and this is a crucial part of the story. http://www.sovereignsociety.com/2009Archiv...59/Default.aspx In case you don't know, the tally sticks: QUOTE So with the stroke of a pen, the King simply declared those debts illegal and ceased payment. It is – as they say – good to be the king. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hwAiotTksDA...feature=related Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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