Jump to content

Recommended Posts

You encourage people to be short term traders. I think most people will not be successful at this and fail and lose their shirts. Or do you want them to follow your own lead (a certain image comes to mind...)?

 

Not at all.

I have encouraged people to take the blinders off, and not just assume that "gold is a one way bet."

The reality we have seen since 2008 is volatility - big swings.

 

If you are sure that "gold will only go up", you can stay long. But I do not take that as a certainty,

maybe just a strong likelihood. And I would not want to ride gold or gold shares through another

30%+ drop, if wee see it. But I cannot speak for everyone

 

The anti-gold shills try to trick people out of their best insurance in this ongoing global financial meltdown every time gold retreats a little. These are the real shills.

This made me laugh.

I think it is very foolish and dangerous to try to characterise those that have a different market view

as "evil" in some way. This is not the way of a smart trader or investor, who should stay open to

contrary points of view.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You articulate my own thoughts on reading about Pixel8r's new site.

 

It seems like an attempt to gather like-minded sycophants who will do little more than reinforce one another's opinion while avoiding "nasty" posts, i.e. ones that do not concur with the "gold is on an exponential trip to the moon" shade of opinion.

 

The value of GEI, imo, lies very much in the opposing views that are presented.

 

If ever it were to become a site where more or less everyone agreed, that would be the signal for me to move on.

 

I think it would be very dangerous to have a single point of view.

Great, while the market is going your way. But I think a single view will eventually get those onboard

trapped into a bad trade, riding it down, but "convinced" it will rally back at any time.

 

If you are convinced that Gold is only going to go up, why do you need a site to keep repeating that?

It seems like JS is already doing the job pretty well.

 

How many Pied pipers does gold need?

 

To call me a Pied Piper is beyond a joke. I dont have a single point of view. I have buy orders now on GLD,

and no sell orders. And I have stopped selling Gold shares, apart from one or two. I also encourage people

to think for themselves. GEI is more of a boxing match than a Pied Piper's site from what I have seen here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
TPTB on GEI get their wish & get virtually no contrarian pov.

Let's be honest here, it's just a trading site with a VI in the current government O'Bama 'go green' policy.

 

?? Who are you talking about?

GOM I think you have some strange ideas, that anyone here can see have no basis in fact.

 

I would be curious what "Vested Interest" you see here?

The only vested interest is that we are consuming scarce fossil fuels much too fast, and that the future

will look very bleak if we do not change that. So maybe we all have a vested interest in how this plays out.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
GF, I think you need to be a bit careful. There are no guarantees, not even in the Gold market.

There are no guarantees, but I don't see any better investment given my risk averseness and given my investment horizon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
There are no guarantees, but I don't see any better investment given my risk averseness and given my investment horizon.

 

Exactly GF. Like what bill bonner of daily reckonning says:

 

“Everyone seems to be jumping on the gold bandwagon,” Bill laments. “Frankly, it’s getting a little crowded…a little top-heavy. It’s making us feel, well, a little uncomfortable.

 

“Here at The Daily Reckoning we never met a crowd we wanted to join…or a line we wanted to stand in. We don’t even like being on the winning side of a football game – too much boisterous company.

 

“If this analysis is correct, gold is a one-way bet. The argument is good,” Bill concludes. “We believe it. But it bothers us that so many others do too.”

 

 

BUT comes the best part lol:

 

 

"Bill is not bothered to the point of wanting to actually SELL gold. After all, as he readily admits, ‘the argument is good.’ Nor is your California editor inclined to make a case for selling gold. Here’s the problem: Once you’ve sold the stuff, what do you do next? Buy stocks? Buy bonds? Buy vintage Coca-cola bottles?

 

And while you’re thinking about what you might buy, what do you hold in your bank account? A currency that’s depreciating faster than net worth in a divorce court?

 

So long-term gold holders are probably well advised to remain faithful to their favorite dollar substitute, and just ride through the inevitable ups and downs."

 

I will be here from time to time as I really think my time best served informing the cash noobs what to do before it is too late.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
There are no guarantees, but I don't see any better investment given my risk averseness and given my investment horizon.

 

Do you recall a guy called Paul Van Eaden?

He was a popular Gold buy until a few years ago, when he saw Gold pop thru $1,000, and he said, "gold is overvalued."

 

People got very angry and felt betrayed, when he started saying that he had a measure of gold, and at $1,000 it have

run past its valuation. Now I think he was clearly right, since gold subsequently dropped below $700, and he became

a gold buyer again.

 

I suppose his valuation is something near $1100 now, and he may have found gold overvalued again at $1200.

Blink, and its now back to near $1100.

 

What do you think about this approach?

 

This would give you the freedom to trade out of gold, and into something else (oil? natgas? uranium?) when gold

becomes overvalued relative to these alternatives, and then trade back in when it is cheap again.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This made me laugh.

I think it is very foolish and dangerous to try to characterise those that have a different market view

as "evil" in some way.

 

a very strange word to use "evil"

The only other poster I have heard use that word in reference to another poster is aliveandkicking.

 

edited

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
a very strange word to use "evil"

The only other poster I have heard use that word is aliveandkicking.

 

Here's the activity that GF described:

anti-gold shills try to trick people out of their best insurance in this ongoing global financial meltdown every time gold retreats a little. These are the real shills.

 

If he doesnt see that as "evil" (ie motivated by the desire to harm others), then how does he see it?

 

I would be happy to use another word, but GF sees to be describing people he thinks are evil.

 

I can assure you, I have no desire to harm others, except for the minor desire I have to see the Piper sputter his coffee when he checks the gold price on some mornings. That desire is no worse and no more dangerous than the PP's desire to see those who disagree with him as bear cubs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Here's the activity that GF described:

anti-gold shills try to trick people out of their best insurance in this ongoing global financial meltdown every time gold retreats a little. These are the real shills.

 

If he doesnt see that as "evil" (ie motivated by the desire to harm others), then how does he see it?

 

I have just edited my last post btw (at the same time as you were posting yours), although it doesn't reflect any real changes to what I had said.

 

I just thought it an "odd" word to use when talking to one of your administrators who appears to be questioning your motives.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I have just edited my last post btw (at the same time as you were posting yours), although it doesn't reflect any real changes to what I had said.

 

I just thought it an "odd" word to use when talking to one of your administrators who appears to be questioning your motives.

 

Okay.

I simply think that GF is overdoing it, when describing the motives and actions ofd those who might disagree with him. I am certain, he has no desire to harm investors- quite the reverse, I know his motive is to protect investors reading his posts. But I think it is a surprising failure of imagination on his part, not to see that those who are sometimes bearish on gold, might also share a desire to help others.

 

I rarely regard those that I disagree with as have a desire or willingnmess to harm others (excepting, of course: Greenspan, Brown, Krugman, and Barney Frank), who are completely happy to harm others, if it helps them to gain or maintain power. So, if I have characterised those four properly, then I might also describe them as evil. I dont see JS as evil, just as an over-enthusiastic cheerleader, for a view that he holds strongly. However, there is a risk that JS will harm others, if he gets people to follow him blindly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Okay.

I simply think that GF is overdoing it, when describing the motives and actions ofd those who might disagree with him. I am certain, he has no desire to harm investors- quite the reverse, I know his motive is to protect investors reading his posts. But I think it is a surprising failure of imagination on his part, not to see that those who are sometimes bearish on gold, might also share a desire to help others.

 

I rarely regard those that I disagree with as have a desire or willingnmess to harm others (excepting, of course: Greenspan, Brown, Krugman, and Barney Frank), who are completely happy to harm others, if it helps them to gain or maintain power. So, if I have characterised those four properly, then I might also describe them as evil. I dont see JS as evil, just as an over-enthusiastic cheerleader, for a view that he holds strongly. However, there is a risk that JS will harm others, if he gets people to follow him blindly.

 

DrBubb

 

There seems to be a pretty determined movement on this board to ridicule anyway who does not support the chosen future. I suppose if the board owner stands up he has a better chance than most. But you can see how determined the supporters can be to keep reminding you of how bad you are to require standards to be maintained here.

 

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
....But I think it is a surprising failure of imagination on his part, not to see that those who are sometimes bearish on gold, might also share a desire to help others.

...

I dont see JS as evil, just as an over-enthusiastic cheerleader, for a view that he holds strongly. However, there is a risk that JS will harm others, if he gets people to follow him blindly.

I think that most people are not made for making money by trading, which includes shorter term buying and selling of gold-related investments. To say it with JS, the world has turned into one large casino. I am not comfortable with the many people on here who just want to be gamblers in that casino. I would instead encourage them to move their money into a safe investment until the casino has burned down to the ground - which should happen in the not too distant future (it's on fire already).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I think that most people are not made for making money by trading, which includes shorter term buying and selling of gold-related investments. To say it with JS, the world has turned into one large casino. I am not comfortable with the many people on here who just want to be gamblers in that casino. I would instead encourage them to move their money into a safe investment until the casino has burned down to the ground - which should happen in the not too distant future (it's on fire already).

 

Money makes the world go around. I think the difference today is that the market is viewable in more or less real time whereas before it was only viewed by a few in major trading centres and even they could not see the other trading centres in real time.

 

So if you see an out of control casino it does not mean anything will majorly change. What is now changing though is that banks are generally more cautious about lending.

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I think that most people are not made for making money by trading, which includes shorter term buying and selling of gold-related investments. To say it with JS, the world has turned into one large casino. I am not comfortable with the many people on here who just want to be gamblers in that casino. I would instead encourage them to move their money into a safe investment until the casino has burned down to the ground - which should happen in the not too distant future (it's on fire already).

gf, if people have different tactics and strategies to you, that does not necessarily make them "gamblers in a casino".

 

More likely it just means they have different convictions. :)

 

edit: fwiw I don't think the "convictions" between people here are really that different. For myself, I also have a foot in the inflation current depreciation camp.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
gf, if people have different tactics, strategies to you, that does not necessarily make them "gamblers in the casino".

 

More likely it just means they have different convictions. :)

 

Goldfinger went to the bookie and placed a bet that the bookie would collapse. He wanted 100% guaranteed odds but he got what was given.

 

Meanwhile it appears 100% guaranteed certain that the price of gold will eventually keep on rising ever higher.

 

As will everything else.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
gf, if people have different tactics, strategies to you, that does not necessarily make them "gamblers in the casino".

 

More likely it just means they have different convictions. :)

I agree with this as no matter what you invest in and regardless of the level, even if it is the change in your pocket you are suspectable to risk. At some point, one which is obviously different from person to person, that risk becomes a gamble.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am starting to get worn down.

I am now thinking of playing a more ambitious game and trading in and out of gold as Doctor Bubb describes.

By not doing this we lose the opportunity of filling our boots on the downward waves that occur inevitably in all markets.

 

If gold is going up anyway in the long term then as long as we buy in again we won't lose our shirts.

The only way we could do worse is if we sold before the peak of any particular wave and then it never quite dipped below our selling point.

 

My problems with starting to trade is that I do not believe I have access to a method for predicting the waves that will give me an advantage over the majority of the gold traders. Therefore I suspect it would either result in a zero sum game or a series of small losses for me. If I can find a good method I might be persuaded to enjoy a gamble.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I am starting to get worn down.

I am now thinking of playing a more ambitious game and trading in and out of gold as Doctor Bubb describes.

By not doing this we lose the opportunity of filling our boots on the downward waves that occur inevitably in all markets.

 

If gold is going up anyway in the long term then as long as we buy in again we won't lose our shirts.

The only way we could do worse is if we sold before the peak of any particular wave and then it never quite dipped below our selling point.

 

My problems with starting to trade is that I do not believe I have access to a method for predicting the waves that will give me an advantage over the majority of the gold traders. Therefore I suspect it would either result in a zero sum game or a series of small losses for me. If I can find a good method I might be persuaded to enjoy a gamble.

One must never trade gold!

 

How about silver/ dollars instead? :)

 

Much more volatile... and if you get it wrong... the volatility will rescue you. plus you will always be in two cough cough decent currencies.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If I can find a good method I might be persuaded to enjoy a gamble.

If this was so easy, why couldn't you trade any market, i.e., why bother with gold? You would be retired already anyway from all the profits you have made in trading Google & Co..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Meanwhile it appears 100% guaranteed certain that the price of gold will eventually keep on rising ever higher.

 

As will everything else.

Nearly, not everything can rise - remember something has to fall.

 

I reckon the price of paper is going to rocket soon but sadly not it's value - especially with that ink on it. :lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I am starting to get worn down.

I am now thinking of playing a more ambitious game and trading in and out of gold as Doctor Bubb describes.

By not doing this we lose the opportunity of filling our boots on the downward waves that occur inevitably in all markets.

 

If gold is going up anyway in the long term then as long as we buy in again we won't lose our shirts.

The only way we could do worse is if we sold before the peak of any particular wave and then it never quite dipped below our selling point.

 

My problems with starting to trade is that I do not believe I have access to a method for predicting the waves that will give me an advantage over the majority of the gold traders. Therefore I suspect it would either result in a zero sum game or a series of small losses for me. If I can find a good method I might be persuaded to enjoy a gamble.

If you find a good method, you could be a millionaire by this time next year Rodney.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If this was so easy, why couldn't you trade any market, i.e., why bother with gold? You would be retired already anyway from all the profits you have made in trading Google & Co..

 

I am not implying that having a method would mean it is easy.

 

In fact it might be difficult and time consuming but good enough for you to make enough profit to make it worthwhile.

 

I don't see a totally polarized situation in which either you have and use a method and are a billionaire within minutes or else you lose.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For those that need a bit of cheer :rolleyes:

 

Sparky over at GIM has a interesting thread, lets see how it plays out over the next few weeks ????

 

http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread.php?t=429641

 

remember during the last two major run-ups, there was a noticeable stumble in the price in the November/December time frame. They looked like this:

 

July 2005: $420

Dec 2005: $540 (+29%)

Dec 2005: $485 (-10%)

May 2006: $730 (+51%) Total gain +74%

 

Aug 2007: $650

Nov 2007: $850 (+31%)

Dec 2007: $780 (-8%)

Mar 2008: $1030 (+32%) Total gain +58%

 

Today resembled the beginning of the same characteristic. I think a reasonable model behavior might look something like this:

 

July 2009: $900

Dec 2009: $1225 (+36%)

??Dec 2009: $1100 (-10%)

??Apr 2010: $1400 (+27%) Total gain +55%

 

I've tempered it a bit, because our seasonal summer launching point of $900 was already 25-30% above the October 2008 lows, which was not a characteristic of the previous run-ups.

 

The other competing scenario (at least in my mind) is that a drop to the $1050-$1100 range is followed by a return back to the $1225 high in early 2010, and that ends up being the peak for the year.

 

I think these two scenarios are equally likely. JMHO.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thinking of buying back into my Gold now on BV. If I do, I'll buy back the gold I sold and I'm thinking of using the profits to buy a few krugerands in Cape Town before I leave as a 'souvenir'. Anyone know any dealers in Cape Town??

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×