Gatesy Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 This move (so far) has been fairly predictable in TA terms and has really been a matter of patience. I'll be interested to see if I'm still so rational when a spanner gets thrown in the works. I have a feeling I'll need to dig out my biggest set of steel balls for the next few day's trading. I am watching with interest with regard to Alf Field's thoughts from an EW perspective. His pointers suggest we are in Large wave III which will see gold rise from c.$850 up to $1578 with no more than a 7 or 8% correction at any time. So if you believe in this sort of analysis you could look at the correction of the last couple of days at c.%4 and allow for another 4% margin of error to place new longs. ie. From $989 on Tuesday you could consider a maximum drop to go to $910. Unlikely in my opinion at this stage . I think shallower corrections of around %4.5 are more likely ( thus we could hit $945 within 2 or 3 days) in validating "minor waves" as part of "small wave" ( if you get me....). Of course AF did fudge his analysis a fair bit IMO to account for the long meandering of May 06 to Aug 07, but I think EW has the potential to pan out better in a stronger rallying move of the like which we;ve seen in recent weeks. Could all be bunkum of course ! Edit: G&S moving higher as I type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexreeve Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 I asked recently about adding to core physical and am intending to do so, if it does dip below $950 where is the next support as i don't know whether to split my capital and hold off or go 'all in'. Total amount between £10-£15k opinions appreciated I doubt it'll go lower than 940 today, find out shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexreeve Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 3.34pm and gold begins its daily plunge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexreeve Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 3.34pm and gold begins its daily plunge or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
headmelter Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 3.34pm and gold begins its daily plunge No. PPT must have day off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 But I also think tomorrow may break the pattern from the last two days (so be careful whoever was planning to trade that). PPT may take a day off, as they'll have spent quite a lot the last 2 days. I hope this was heeded, and no-one on this bb lost on a short today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 I hope this was heeded, and no-one on this bb lost on a short today You're having a good run bigtbigt! I've also "lucked in" today as I forgot I had some buy orders around 955 ... they went and triggered. I wasn't so lucky with my Bullionvault account though. I set up some cash to transfer earlier this week. One lot on Tuesday, another on Weds. I thought the first transfer would've completed yesterday but it hadn't. I checked this morning at 9.30am ... nothing. And then I get an email at 11am (when I was offline / offsite) to say that BOTH transfers had arrived. Only now am I online (from a train) but I've missed that lovely little buying op window. Grrr... I think BV have some human intervention in their cash handling process which causes this strange effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 You're having a good run bigtbigt! ...Probably luck! ...but despite finding I'm 'basically' right 3/4 of the time - I do not day trade because one tends to get cocky, place bigger and bigger bets, and then one bet goes spectacularly wrong! Been there, done that ...So with gold I INVEST with a time frame of months/years. Whereas with stocks I do kinda trade but with a time frame of weeks/months. Typically clearing 15% after tax per year. ...but this 'success' could all go tits up at any stage! ...especially with today's manipulated markets. I've also "lucked in" today as I forgot I had some buy orders around 955 ... they went and triggered. I wasn't so lucky with my Bullionvault account though. I set up some cash to transfer earlier this week. One lot on Tuesday, another on Weds. I thought the first transfer would've completed yesterday but it hadn't. I checked this morning at 9.30am ... nothing. And then I get an email at 11am (when I was offline / offsite) to say that BOTH transfers had arrived. Only now am I online (from a train) but I've missed that lovely little buying op window. Grrr... I think BV have some human intervention in their cash handling process which causes this strange effect. That's a bummer! But win one loose one, not so bad I also just missed out ...on yesterdays market bottom. Sat there with finger on trigger at mid-day, but instead decided to place a buy limit (still pending) on several markets 1.5% down on where things were at the time. Then the US went and pulled things up and not down. Never mind. No money lost - the first rule of investing!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
headmelter Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 Powder still dry Were's the PPT when you're expecting them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
headmelter Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 PPT back from coffee break? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 PPT back from coffee break? Down to 959.40. The cartel came in late today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
headmelter Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 Down to 959.40. The cartel came in late today. I'm hoping they do overtime today, then go on their summer holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 Massive swing in sentiment going on right now. SM's up. Yen down. Swissie down. G&S down. Panic over people, the world is going to be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 I'm hoping they do overtime today, then go on their summer holidays. 955.20 This is a good smackdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 955.20 This is a good smackdown. It is indeed. Oil just broke down through $130 and that fall in gold was brutal, particularly given the rise which preceeded it. Well we're back in the low $950 buy zone again, but this time there's an element of fear in the air. As I said earlier, time for balls of steel and buys of gold (and silver). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 I have a feeling we're not going to see much more sub $950. I'm tempted to go mostly in with this smackdown (only got cash to the account last Saturday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
headmelter Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 955.20 This is a good smackdown. Trigger finger twitchy. :wacko: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 I have a feeling we're not going to see much more sub $950. I'm tempted to go mostly in with this smackdown (only got cash to the account last Saturday). I've taken additional longs in silver. Seems to have overreacted yet again to the downside. Tomorrow will be important, if they can't smack gold down below $950 by market close then we'll be on the launchpad for next week. The only thing that concerns me is the volume on that move, it must have been big to smash the buying strength which went into the rise to $978. The volatility today has been quite astounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 I just used half my remaining cash in the account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
headmelter Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 The Three steps to heaven? Step 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
headmelter Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 Step 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
headmelter Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 Step 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 954.40 It's still dropping, although slowly now. Will they bother any more today? Maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panas Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 Could somebody who is a chartist here tell me if that's a Head and Shoulders on the Dollar daily chart? Dollar vs ? oh...i'm not a good chartist btw but i'd imagine you would need something to compare it against USDX? Yes, I meant the USDX daily chart. Is it a possible h & sh formation developing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 954.40 It's still dropping, although slowly now. Will they bother any more today? Maybe not. Where's the buying though? I would've expected to see at least a small push up. We got one in Silver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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