UK House prices: News & Views

[G0ldfinger]

Incredibly sad story.

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/200...ng-repossession

I squatted my repossessed home

...

Without a home, I couldn't work, and considered myself finished. I'm a big man, but I cried every day.

...

The house had not been sold. Our creditors needed to sell the place for far more than its ever-decreasing value, so it wasn't worth their while. I visited one day, stood outside and peered in at the empty rooms. Our ducks, which I'd once fed daily, came running across the lawn. I broke down right there, my head resting against the window.

...

[G0ldfinger]

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/pro...icle5818185.ece

Lloyds counts cost of HBOS takeover and property slump as 500,000 customers slip into negative equity

...

The number of mortgage-holders borrowing from Lloyds Banking Group that are trapped in negative equity surged last year to half a million, the group, which is 43 per cent owned by the taxpayer, revealed yesterday.

We own this cr@p. I don't want to!

[headmelter]

Incredibly sad story.

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/200...ng-repossession

 

 

Sorry GF I don't see this as incredibly sad at all. He omits to say what his financial difficulties were, but 're-negotiated' his mortgage payments. (mewed?) Despite, at one point, being a millionaire.

 

But millionaire to homeless smacks of either greed or stupidity.

[ziknik]

Incredibly sad story.

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/200...ng-repossession

Meanwhile the family business, a talent scouting agency and production company, went from strength to strength. At one point, I was a millionaire. But a few years ago, I encountered some financial difficulties, so renegotiated my mortgage repayments.

 

I have no sympathy for him.

 

He’d had the property for 30 and not managed to pay off his mortgage despite being a millionaire.

 

What does ‘renegotiated my mortgage repayments’ mean?

Does it mean ‘MEW’d over a million pounds to prop up a failed business’?

 

The guy was more than 60 years old at this point. Did he not think about the risks?

 

Anyway, how much money could a talent scouting business possibly need? I’m guessing he didn’t spend the money investing in essential equipment.

 

He probably went touring schools telling girls they can be models. Pervert

 

( )

 

From: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NUqSyaLvt8

[G0ldfinger]

... I have no sympathy for him. ...

I feel sympathy and I think it is sad, but it's more the kind of sadness a professor feels when failing a student. It's sad, but necessary, otherwise the whole system becomes defunct.

[G0ldfinger]

It's very important to let HBoS go bust. As I said in the post above, the system otherwise becomes defunct.

 

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/pro...icle5818185.ece

A year ago HBOS was still offering 125 per cent loan-to-value deals via its Birmingham Midshires brand. There were more than 220 deals available two years ago that loaned up to 100 per cent of a property’s value on the market. There are only ten such deals available now, according to Money-facts.co.uk, the financial website.

[THEBIGMAN]

Exceptionally good post at HPC (really!), but scary in a cgnao way...

 

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...p;#entry1702261

 

[drbubb]

Exceptionally good post at HPC (really!), but scary in a cgnao way...

 

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...p;#entry1702261

 

A popular bit of fear-mongering IMHO

 

The standard arguements with derivatives used pre-crisis was that the actual outstanding amounts involved pale in comparison to the headline figure because many are hedged and each contract is two sided. The problem of course was that the issue of counter party default risk was completely ignored.

 

(in response, I posted this rebuttal):

Actually, you have this backwards.

 

The risk amounts for OTC derivative are massively OVER-COUNTED

as I have revealed in two articles - and my arguments have not been refuted.

 

1/

"Fighting the Fear" - Preventing a meltdown in OTC Derivatives

Moneyweek article / credit risk on OTC swaps :

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/stock...-to-us-all.aspx

 

2/

There's a longer and more-detailed version, here :

http://financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2008/0605.html

 

I know that people would rather see a huge consipricy here. But in the long run, the truth will serve you better.

[Concrete Jungle]

Feb 2008 Halifax figure is -2.3%

"The average UK house price declined by 2.3% in February

 

BBC Report

House prices 'dip a further 2.3%

 

Surprise surprise rents still falling

'Rents down' amid flooded market

 

Has anyone checked into singing pig to see how our friends over there are getting on?

[G0ldfinger]

Seems we're going back to norm here.

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1985/UK_H...ces_in_USD.html

[lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)]

are they following a book or something

 

how to bankrupt a country in 10 easy steps (a new dummies guide book - authored by GB)

 

save the banks and housebuilders or save the country/currency - the choice was made a long time ago

 

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...efer=realestate

 

U.K. Seeking Ways to ‘Stabilize’ Housing Market, Beckett Says

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By Mark Deen

 

March 18 (Bloomberg) -- The U.K. government is seeking new ways to prop up the housing market as a recession and a reduction in bank lending pushes down prices.

 

“We are always looking at what more we can do to restore stability to the housing market,” Housing Minister Margaret Beckett will say today, according to a text of the remarks released by her office.

 

Rising unemployment, rationing of loans by banks and the deepening credit crisis have intensified a slump in the property market. House prices across the U.K. fell 11.5 percent in January, reaching an average of 195,724 pounds ($274,620), the Department for Communities and Local Government said yesterday.

 

Beckett will today meet one of the first people to benefit from Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s plan to help first-time buyers.

 

Under the “Home Buy Direct” program, developed in 2007 when U.K. property prices were still soaring, buyers can purchase a home for as little as 70 percent of the market price with the help of an equity loan funded by the government and participating developers. The loan is provided without a fee for the first five years and can be used as a deposit.

 

“We know buyers are finding it difficult to enter the market at the moment, and Home Buy Direct is part of a range of actions we have taken to support people aspiring to buy a place of their own, and to help house builders facing tougher times,” Beckett will say.

 

[G0ldfinger]

We have seen nothing yet. Especially when interest rates will go two digits in a few years time the sky will be falling.

 

http://property.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life...icle5948641.ece

Homeowners who couldn’t sell their properties – at least at the price they would have fetched when the market was still booming – but were still determined to move, decided to let them out instead. Once the market recovered, so their logic went, they would put them back on sale.

 

Twelve months later, this strategy is beginning to look deeply flawed. Not only has the sales market not recovered, rents, too, are beginning to crumble. For many, the only consolation is that the interest rate on their mortgage has fallen. These accidental landlords are beginning to look increasingly like anxious landlords.

Let's wait and see how much consolation these flexible rate mortgages really are.

[G0ldfinger]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

ING Asks Employees to Return 2008 Bonuses Pending New Policy

 

By Martijn van der Starre

 

March 23 (Bloomberg) -- ING Groep NV, the first Dutch bank to tap a government rescue package, asked its “top 200” employees and their teams to return last year’s bonuses. The bank also deferred 2009 variable cash compensation for all workers until a new policy is established next year.

Gazing into my crystal ball, I predict lower house prices.

[dietcolaaddict]

I bet they don't do a follow up article on this 'lucky' couple................

 

http://www.metro.co.uk/news/article.html?C...p;in_page_id=34

 

Couple celebrate 1p-a-month mortgage

 

Sinking interest rates have left one couple paying just 1p a month in mortgage repayments on their £400,000 London home, it emerged today.

 

Ben Cameron and his pregnant wife Nicola have seen their monthly bill slashed by £1,500 as the Bank of England repeatedly cut the base rate in recent months.

 

Their exceptional payments come as the result of signing a two-year-tracker deal back in 2007 which guaranteed their repayments would be 1.01 per cent below the base rate.

 

And as interest rates have tumbled, so have the payments on their four-bedroom Victorian home in Hampton – with the fact that they are even 1p only down to a computer glitch.

 

The mortgage is a Cheltenham & Gloucester interest-only deal, with rates which observers suggest another 10,000 home-owners currently enjoy.

 

Mr Cameron, a 37-year-old estate agent, told the Evening Standard: 'We feel incredibly lucky - we almost didn't go for it.

 

'It was only the third broker we approached who flagged up this deal. We look at our mortgage statements now and they look ridiculous, it's fantastic.'

 

He added that the mortgage provider was unable to process a monthly payment of zero, hence their 1p charge.

 

'Cheltenham & Gloucester sent us a letter saying their admin system couldn't cope and they'd charge us a nominal rate of 0.001 per cent, then refund us,' he said.

 

'We pay them 24p and they pay us back 23p - it seems very silly.'

 

Nicola Cameron, 28, is expecting the couple's first child in June.

 

So in summary:

- £400,000 house to be worth half that soon

- Interest only means no repayment mechanism

- Just wait till they end up on SVR in a year or so

[ziknik]

...

Sinking interest rates have left one couple paying just 1p a month in mortgage repayments on their £400,000 London home, it emerged today.

...

 

£400 grand for a 2-up-2-down terrace! Wow, the housing bubble still manages to surprise me.

 

What’s the average salary in ‘Hampton’?

 

[dietcolaaddict]

Here's some ammunition for the "Might as well buy now, my (sterling) savings are earning no interest" brigade.

 

Shame it wasn't published on April fool's day to make them think twice.

 

Evening Standard

2 April 2009

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/art...ices/article.do

 

House prices rose for the first time in 16 months during March as buyers continued to return to the market, figures showed.

 

The cost of a home in the UK increased by 0.9% during the month, pushing average values back up above the £150,000 threshold to £150,946, according to Nationwide.

 

The surprise increase also led to a reduction in the annual rate at which house prices are falling, with this easing from a record 17.6% in February to 15.7% in March.

 

But the group cautioned against reading too much into the monthly price rise, saying that it was "far too soon" to see it as evidence that the trough in the market had been reached.

 

Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide's chief economist, said: "The Bank of England has already taken strong measures to ease the tensions in economic and financial markets by cutting rates and commencing quantitative easing. However it will take time for these to work through into the housing market before we can expect a sustained recovery in house prices."

 

The figures add to the recent positive news on the housing market, coming just days after the Bank of England said the number of mortgages approved for house purchase jumped by 19% during February.

 

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors also said that interest from potential buyers rose for the fourth month in a row during February, while property intelligence group Hometrack reported a slowing in the rate of house price falls during March alongside a rise in sales.

 

Economists have greeted the recent run of good news cautiously, warning that, although the housing market may have turned a corner, a sustained recovery in prices was still likely to be some way off with the economy in recession and unemployment rising.

 

Ms Earley said: "It is still too soon to say that this will be the beginning of sustained house price rises and a reflection of a wholesale return of confidence to the market."

 

She added that the current upturn in activity was likely to reflect the return of buyers who had delayed purchasing a home during the worst of the financial turbulence at the end of last year.

[Paddles]

Here's some ammunition for the "Might as well buy now, my (sterling) savings are earning no interest" brigade.

 

Shame it wasn't published on April fool's day to make them think twice.

 

Evening Standard

2 April 2009

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/art...ices/article.do

 

The Evening Standard is a truly hateful rag. I remember occasionally reading a discarded copy (I'd never pay for it) during the years of the last crash and seeing all the pages upon pages of adverts featuring an artist's impression of the utopia that would be the latest nasty development to be sold to suckers out in Zone 27b ("Only 55 minutes from St. Pancras!" - well so is bloody Charles De Gaul Airport). All pictures of happy couples eating at al fresco cafes and mothers pushing buggies and the sun is always shining.

 

In the meantime, prices slid for nigh on 6 years, interest rates were eye-watering and many people in previously "essential" jobs were laid off.

 

In the block of 8 flats where I lived, 2 were repossessed and one handed the keys back and skipped out the country because he'd become sick with worry about owing £20k more than the current value of the place. [edit: and to put it in context, those repos happened in 1993 and 1994, so at least 2 years after the prices started to fall, i.e. winter 2009 in the current crash]

 

And all through that time the Standard were posting headlines like today's; "House prices rise at last".

 

The worst thing is, if I hadn't seen it last time, I might have been a sucker this time. Who knows?

[G0ldfinger]

... The worst thing is, if I hadn't seen it last time, I might have been a sucker this time. Who knows?

Good to have you here to tell the truth.

[marceau]

The worst thing is, if I hadn't seen it last time, I might have been a sucker this time. Who knows?

 

 

Look on the bright side, this bounce will expose a whole new raft of suckers and idiots who you can now choose to never trust with business (or anything else for that matter) again.

 

Anyone too dull to see this coming is certainly too inept to deal with me in any professional capacity (unless I'm actively exploiting their stupidity). The silver lining is that you can finally spot genuinely productive and valuable individuals and organisations, rather than the usual sophist or apparatchik (definately the word of the year - thanks Hannan) leeches who have managed to hide poor performance for so long.

 

Once this is eventually over, finding good business and investment will be a piece of cake - they will be the only ones left standing.

 

Nothing Brown-turn, Geithner or anyone else can do will change this. It looks like they may be able to buy a couple more years of plate-spinning at the expense of raising those plates to ever-more precarious heights. Fine - it just gives me more time to position myself for the inevitably hideous end game - roll on the rate rises.

 

EDIT:

 

As an aside, one of my rules for investing in gold was to stop when real positive interest rates returned (ie - above the real rate of inflation). I get the feeling that may now only be a couple of years away. It would be interesting to see some discussion on here of how to play forthcoming events. There will be a moment to switch out of gold (I know some on here won't like this, but I have no intention of becoming a gold-plated martyr), I have my ideas on how to do it, but would like to hear from others.

[lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)]

EDIT:

 

As an aside, one of my rules for investing in gold was to stop when real positive interest rates returned (ie - above the real rate of inflation). I get the feeling that may now only be a couple of years away. It would be interesting to see some discussion on here of how to play forthcoming events. There will be a moment to switch out of gold (I know some on here won't like this, but I have no intention of becoming a gold-plated martyr), I have my ideas on how to do it, but would like to hear from others.

as well as the above

 

I'm watching the dow/gold ratio also when it gets near 2 i will start selling some

 

and a passing glance at the gold/house price ratio re Goldfinger - i think it could bottom at about 50oz

 

ps i will always own some Gold and Silver - just not as great a percentage as i own now

[InternationalRockSuperstar]

and a passing glance at the gold/house price ratio re Goldfinger - i think it could bottom at about 50oz

 

yes, I think 50oz or less for the average house, 100oz or less for a nice one.

 

probably less because in previous recessions the rents have had an artificial bottom due to 'social/welfare' rent. this time round the gov't won't be able to afford this.

 

house values will fall back to pre-welfare-state levels.

[dietcolaaddict]

The Evening Standard is a truly hateful rag. I remember occasionally reading a discarded copy (I'd never pay for it) during the years of the last crash and seeing all the pages upon pages of adverts featuring an artist's impression of the utopia that would be the latest nasty development to be sold to suckers out in Zone 27b ("Only 55 minutes from St. Pancras!" - well so is bloody Charles De Gaul Airport). All pictures of happy couples eating at al fresco cafes and mothers pushing buggies and the sun is always shining.

I agree but The Evening Standard has an influence on public sentiment, for sure. Every street and railway station vendor, with their red, rusty, portable sales counter thingy, had one of those fake-handwritten banners yesterday proclaiming to Londoners : "House prices rise at last". There are still plenty of suckers, provided they can raise a deposit, who will walk into this 2009 bull-trap.

 

Here's the latest house prices graph (from HPC stalwart Little Professor). The rate of house price decline looks to have peaked now in my eyes, and further falls will, in my opinion, result from a pattern of 2 months of falls, one month of gains etc. Month-upon-month of falls may be over and instead we may have a sort of two-steps-forward-one-step-back type of price decline for the next year or two ot three until we get to the bottom.

 

I guess a bottom may only occur once The Evening Standard no longer dare print "House prices rise at last" banners.

 

 

 

[dietcolaaddict]

I forgot to attach the graph

 

Just to say I am also a firm believer in Goldfinger's 'sub-100 oz' target for a low in UK houses.

It could fall well below that, depending on the unintended consequences of HMG's monetary policies.

[G0ldfinger]

yes, I think 50oz or less for the average house, 100oz or less for a nice one.

 

probably less because in previous recessions the rents have had an artificial bottom due to 'social/welfare' rent. this time round the gov't won't be able to afford this.

 

house values will fall back to pre-welfare-state levels.

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1968/UK_H...es_in_Gold.html

[G0ldfinger]

The BTL margin call bell is ringing loud.

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/cdc24a48-2078-11...144feabdc0.html

Borrowers forced to pay down buy-to-let loans

 

By Sharlene Goff

 

Published: April 3 2009 19:10 | Last updated: April 3 2009 19:10

 

Lenders are now forcing professional buy-to-let investors to inject large cash sums into their mortgages, as sharp falls in house prices have eroded the equity in their properties.

EDIT: This is it for BTL IMO. This is the death knell. The end is now approaching rapidly.