drbubb

The bounce was impressive. But can Gold really put in a bottom at $1130?* BTW, one day's rally does not make a bottom *on a second look, you can draw trendlines like this: But they are not wholely convincing

Have I missed something ? =

Small and medium flats continue to sell like hotcakes - The Standard Type A (under 431sf) and Type B (431-752sf) have made up 76 per cent of flats sold up to August 31st Overall price index: +5.9% Type A flats : + 6.9% Type B flats : + 5.8% Developers now plan to up 10,000 flats on the market in Q4. And A&B flats are estimated to account for 58% of flats sold. Some are saying the newly-weds have been major buyers of small flats, and the census dept recorded 55,300 marriages last year, so demand is expected to remain high from those planning to wed. And meanwhile, and estimate 100,000 couples who married in the last 5 years have still not bought a flat. Flats prices are not expected to fall because of the cost structure. Where Land costs may be a minimum of $4,000 psf, construction costs are rising, so developers will need $10,000 - $20,000 psf to make a reasonable profit.

Q3-Colliers data, "the Knowledge", just out: (Will Makati's outperformance continue thanks to City Gate, etc. in the Qtrs to come?) PRICE SUMMARY - at Q3-2014 vs Q4-2012, 2013: 3 BEDROOM CONDOMINIUM UNIT ------------------ : -3Q-2013- : %frm.'13: -4Q-2012- : -4Q-2013- : % increase Location ------ : PHP / SQm: from 2013: PHP / SQm : PHP / SQm : yr-on-yr MAKATI -CBD : p- 142,750: + 05.81 % : p- 117,950 : p- 134,908 : +14.38% ROCKWELL-- : p- 146,750: + 05.75 % : p- 125,720 : p- 138,768 : +10.38% BGC/ TheFort : p- 139,000: + 05.49 % : p- 118,690 : p- 131,760 : +11.01% === Capital values appreciate faster than rents Residential capital value growth in premium locations accelerated due to rising land values. Values in the Makati CBD range between PHP98,000 and 187,500 per sq m, appreciating by 3.4% from the previous quarter. Rockwell experienced a similar increase, at 3.6% to PHP146,500 per sq m. Average values in Fort Bonifacio amounted to PHP139,000 per sq m, growing by 3.0% QoQ. Colliers expects capital values to grow faster than rents, between 5.0 and 7.0%, by next year as the current land values will cause adjustments in the values. === Manufacturing, real estate lead economic expansion The Philippine economy relied on a strong manufacturing sector to grow by 6.4% YoY in 2Q 2014. The real estate sector was also identified as a vital contributor, expanding by 8.9%, while exports sustained its double digit growth for the second straight quarter. In addition, domestic consumption remained strong despite higher inflation rates. To avoid any overheating, the government, through the Central Bank, has identified key measures to be implemented in the next six to nine months. Office Five office buildings were delivered this quarter, 80% of which are located in Quezon City. By year end, an additional 200,000 sq m of office space will be delivered, meeting the forecast supply of 480,000 sq m. Real estate developers are optimistic, with close to 1 million sq m of office space slated for delivery in the next two years. Meanwhile, overall vacancy in the Makati CBD declined due to sustained strong office demand. As a result, office rents across all grades increased 2 - 3% this quarter. Residential Two new projects were completed in 3Q2014, adding in 1,297 units to inventory. An average of 9,000 units will be delivered in the next three years, with the majority of the units located in the Makati CBD, Fort Bonifacio, and Ortigas Center. Residential vacancy in the Makati CBD decreased drastically due to strong take-up across all grades and unit types. Despite high occupancy in the area, rental rates grew modestly in the period. == >MORE: http://www.colliers.com/-/media/Files/Marketing%20Reports/Knowledge_Q3_2014.pdf

A HOLOGRAPHIC CONCEPT OF REALITY by Dr. Richard Alan Miller The organization of any biological system is established by a complex electrodynamic field which is, in part, determined by its atomic physiochemical components and which, in part, determines the behavior and orientation of these components. The holographic model of reality emerging from this principle may provide a scientific explanation of psychoenergetic phenomena. The pattern or organization of any biological system is established by a complex electrodynamic field, which is in part determined by its atomic physiochemical components and which in part determines the behavior and orientation of those components. This field is electrical in the physical sense, and by its properties it relates the entities of the biological system in a characteristic pattern and is itself in part a result of the existence of those entities. It determines and is determined by the components. More than establishing pattern it must maintain pattern in the midst of physiochemical flux; therefore it must regulate and control living things. It must be the mechanism, the outcome of whose activity is wholeness, organization and continuity. The electrodynamic field then, is comparable to the entelecy of Driesh, the embryonic field of Spehmann, and the biological field of Weiss. -Burr and Northrop, 1935 Since the dawn of time there have been two conflicting explanations for the nature and structure of the world in which we live. Those can be most simply stated as the field and the particle... CONTINUES: > http://aetherforce.com/a-holographic-concept-of-reality-by-dr-richard-alan-miller/

First hopeful early moves in a long time... =

GOLD : Uncertainties in New-Low-Land GBS.L / etf for Gold ... update : GLD I suppose the obvious support now is about $100 x 10.40 = $1,040

The following prediction of a "sustained Rally" may be right... Or this could be just "topping Talk" which will bring in the last buying surge Meanwhile... I am impressed by things like the strength of the Philippines economy - and how they have brought down Debt . Falling oil prices: A boon to the Philippine economy Philippine Star-2 Nov 2014 Oil prices have dropped by more than 25 percent since June on the back of weak global oil demand, a supply glut from North America and a ... . . This could help the Peso, relative to the USD . USDPHP / USD in Phil.Pesos ... 2-yrs : 5-yrs : All-Data / 10-d ... But while the govt. has controlled its debt, Philippines corporations are borrowing more; Debt-Hungry Philippine Firms Exposed as Markets FalterBloomberg-16 Oct 2014 Philippine corporate exposure to foreign debt climbed to 26 percent of total ... expansion in the Philippines to remain strong in 2014 and 2015. . Debt spree exposes Philippine firms as world outlook dims Chicago Tribune-17 Oct 2014 By year-end, Philippine companies would take as long as a record four years to repay debt using operating earnings, said Xavier Jean, the ...

Comment regarding the proposed MTR from Manila: "...still not final because the government are still in talks with Ayala..." Reaction: I suppose the Philippines govt will want Ayala to pay what it thinks is "their fair share" of the capital cost. Many Ayala properties and projects would benefit from a new underground on the proposed route. Getting the purchase of the Jaka Building complete, makes this (virtually) inevitable now, I suppose.

/ I'm reviving this old thread for the "Thinking Caps" section - Who will it be in 2014 ? / The Winners: PERSON Of The Year (2013) #1 : Pope Francis, The People's Pope #2 : Edward Snowden, the Dark Prophet #3 : Edith Windsor, the Unlikely Activist #4 : Bashar Assad, the Lethal Tyrant #5 : Ted Cruz, the Barn Burner (2012) #1 : Obama, the Choice (in the election) #2 : Malala Yousafzai #3 : Tim Cook #4 : Mohamed Morsi #5 : Fabiola Gianotti (2011) #1 : The Protester #2 : William McRaven, the Admiral #3 : Ai Weiwei, the Dissident #4 : Paul Ryan, the Prophet #5 : Kate Middleton, the Princess (2010) #1 : Mark Zuckerberg #2 : The Tea Party #3 : Julian Assange #4 : Hamid Karsai #5 : The Chilean Miners

Silver awaits a sign of an upturn - could come anytime RATIO ( SLV-to-TLT ) on Log scale Awaiting the usual "V" Bottom, I suppose

Bump ! I am going to repost this old thread to the Thinking Caps section

Point taken. But the drop in SILVER from $48, to near $16, is 2/3rds

A Map showing a Subway proposal (red markers seem to be stations) "There is only 1 subway proposal under PPP. Map of the potential subway line is shown below. This is the subway JICA is currently completing feasiblity studies on." > MORE: http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1443736&page=35 Close-up of Area surrounding City Gate

"Forget me not" - a magazine article about Alzheimers patients in Chiang Mai, in today's Sunday-SCMP European Alzheimer patients and their Chiang Mai care homes Luxury facilities in Chiang Mai are taking in Western Alzheimer's sufferers whose families cannot find or afford, adequate care at home (by Carol Isoux) + Care provided in Faham, near CM: Baan Kamlangchay care home + Founder was Swiss: Martin Woodtli (2003), who saw his own parents suffer in Switzerland + Has taken in more than 100 patients in 10 years + Patients accommodation is scattered, spread across a working village + In Thai culture, they take good care of elderly people + Thailand is like the world's Florida, with people from: British, French, American, and Japanese pensioners Care Resort : another home, opened by a Brit, Peter Brown, for healthy seniors (Care Resort is for those where only one partner has Alzheimers) Vivo Bene Village, is a 5-star 400 million baht (HK$95 million) resort These last two have provided 400 jobs for locals

/ Put on your Thinking Caps ! / : http://tinyurl.com/Thinking-Caps It has been a while since I put much focus on thoughtful threads and longer commentary on GEI. I few people have asked me: What happened to those articles you used to write? Well, I think they got a bit lost in the General Discussion (GD) section, so I am going to experiment with something new ! I have renamed the General Discussion forum to : "General News & Commentary", and created a new forum called: "Thoughtful Discussion". I hope people will visit it at: http://tinyurl.com/Thinking-Caps I also invite and encourage people to participate in the discussions there. Right now, this new forum is at the bottom of "Worldview Forums" section, but as participation grows, I will make it more visible. (Beyond these Big Picture thoughts, there's also a more open-minded Alternative discussion Forum in the Acore section.) Example follows, a post from: CRASHING into a Brighter Future: Out with Old, In with New = =

2,000+ "cheap" flats to be sold before year-end ... But you cannot buy one (unless you are part of HK's "sandwich class") Prices --- : $2 -3 Million for most of them Discount : About 30% below market There are caps on income and wealth levels of buyers. It will be interesting to see if such a large sale has any impact on "free" market prices.

Twisted Logic? Neal DeGrasse Tyson explains why we stopped going to the Moon, And tries to explain away the evidence that the Moon Landing videos were faked Joe Rogan Experience #310 - Neil Degrasse Tyson = = We stopped our space adventures to the moon because "we no longer had the Russians in competition"

GOLD BREAKS $1180-85 ! : : Silver broke $16.00 : : x 10/13-9.am : Rmb3,884 /6.136 = $ 633.0 / 35.274 = $17.94 -$17.39= prm-$0.55 10/31-6.pm : Rmb3,545 /6.140 = $ 577.4 / 35.274 = $16.37 -$15.99= prm-$0.38 ================== U.S. Stock Futures S&P +22.50 / +1.13% Level 2,011.00 Fair Value 1,988.67 Difference 22.33Data as of 6:14am ET =======

RAM BIOGRAPHY in Hour Two Ravenstar's Witching Hour Richard Alan Miller Oct 19, 2014 Hour One https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-NgfzX5_9Q Hour Two: - dr RAM does a biography sketch here = https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrsN6qGD7vM =

It looks ugly now. Every new low seems to bring a sharp drop. No signs of buying appetite, despite the growing potential for a squeeze in Shanghai

Ayala seals Jaka Tower buyout - Manila Standard Today Sep 28, 2014 - Property developer Ayala Land Inc. has closed the deal to acquire the unfinished Jaka Tower, a long-time eyesore in the Makati central business district and owned by the family of Senator Juan Ponce Enrile. Ayala Land president Bernard Vincent Dy told the Manila Standard the company completed the acquisition after conducting a due diligence on the said property. Dy did not disclose the terms of the deal, including the acquisition cost because of a non-disclosure agreement. Dy said Ayala Land would not tear down the existing Jaka Tower and would just continue erecting the structure, as the tower was still structurally sound despite being abandoned for more than 15 years now. “Based on our due diligence we don’t need to demolish the existing building,” Dy said. Jaka Tower was originally designed to be a 49-story office skyscraper by architectural firm Hellmuth, Obata and Kassabaum. It was supposed to be the first high-rise project of Enrile’s and then fledging Jaka Property Group. Construction started in 1996 and was scheduled for completion by 1999. However, the project was halted when construction reached the 21st floor amid the 1997 Asian financial crisis, which affected many other property developers. Dy said the newly-acquired property would be a part of the P65-billion redevelopment plan of Ayala Land within the Makati CBD. Ayala Land said it was redeveloping three huge blocks of property at the corner of Ayala Avenue and Buendia Avenue, to be called City Gate. The first development of City Gate will be Ayala Land’s pioneering stacked mixed-use tower located at the Amorsolo Parking lot. == > http://manilastandardtoday.com/2014/09/28/ayala-seals-jaka-tower-buyout/

Your chart shows a break of the triple bottom - And I think it is looking pretty likely now, since 4X bottoms are very rare. Also, the "new" low in Silver does not bode well for Gold

Citigate is the the right of Center / As it looks now: The Makati North area, is the young and creative hub of the city. This strip is home to universities, museums and theaters, art galleries and studios, BPO offices, and ad agencies. Here, the many forms of creative expression reign supreme, and the vibrant urban culture trickles up to the hip and cool corporate startups and the new generation of educational institutions. In this section, find an artists’ corner, exhibit schedules, and street events. == > http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1699729&page=3 Upcoming projects and city redevelopment plan in Makati by Ayala Land Inc. Oct 7, 2014 Ayala Land is also looking to open its version of the Bonifacio High Street in Circuit Makati, to be called Circuit Lane, by April 2015 Ayala - Alveo's Take-ups on various projects as of Aug.2014: - per Presentation : http://ir.ayalaland.com.ph/uploads/files/ALI%20Operating%20Statistics%201H%202014%2011Aug2014.pdf

Ayala Land Launches Citygate (the new name for the Makati North development) September 8, 2014 "Makati remains and will always remain as Ayala Land's top priority..." Ayala Land, Inc. (ALI) launches City Gate another flagship mixed-use development in the Makati Central Business District. Once completed, City Gate will cover a land area of three blocks with a total of 2.2 hectares. The first development of City Gate will be ALI’s pioneering stacked mixed-use tower located in the Amorsolo Parking lot. It will vertically combine retail on the first three levels with two office buildings above and finally a Seda Suites Hotel on top of one of the office buildings. The project will have a total of 120k square meters of Gross Floor Area (“GFA”) consisting of 53k square meters of GFA intended for Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) firms; 28k square meters intended for traditional headquarter-type offices; 25k square meters, or 312 keys, for the Seda Suites Hotel and 14k square meters for the mall. One of the key features of City Gate will be the open and green civic space located at the landing point of Makati’s elevated pedestrian walkway. The 2,600 square meter civic space will be a point of convergence where nearby residents, office workers and mall-goers can relax and unwind. City Gate’s prime address is strategically located along Ayala Avenue making it highly accessible to major thoroughfares such as Sen. Gil Puyat Avenue. Similar to other ALI developments, it will be pedestrian friendly as it will be connected to Ayala Center and the rest of the Central Business District through Makati’s elevated pedestrian walkway. Ayala Land will be investing a total of P7B in City Gate and is expected to generate 10,000 jobs. == > http://www.ayalaland.com.ph/ayala-land-launches-citygate/ JAKA Building / October 5th, 2014, #149 : EJTAlveoLand JAKA Tower was already purchased by Ayala and will be part of the Makati North. They will construct a triple A Office building soon. ... image below w/o MTR note Citigate / October 27th, 2014, 11:30 AM #161 boy.turista Ayala is strategically developing this area in time for a subway station to be located here. == > http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1699729&page=8 City Gate, on the other hand, is envisioned as the city's gateway and creative hub to cater to the young crowd. City Gate is located where Ayala Avenue meets Buendia and spans three blocks from the Convergys building to Aegis People Support Center. The new development will house office buildings, retail space, a 2,600-sqm civic space, and a 312-room Seda Hotel. The hotel, which will also offer serviced apartments, is expected to open either late 2018 or early 2019 and will create around 180 jobs. It is the first hotel to rise in the area. Aside from Seda, four new hotels are expected to rise in Makati in the next five to six years, including the new Mandarin Hotel that is expected to open in 2020. == > http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/business/08/14/14/ayala-land-adds-p65-b-makati-redevelopment Ayala Land doubles wager on Makati's future as premier PH city MANILA – Ayala Land Inc (ALI) is hiking its investment for the redevelopment of Makati City, considered the “crown jewel” of the Ayala Group’s real estate company. --- SNIPPED --- This is on top of the P60-billion investment Ayala Land announced in 2012 to develop six nodes in the city comprising the McKinley Exchange, the transport hub; Ayala Center, the lifestyle cosmopolitan hub; Makati Central Business District, the premiere business hub of the country; Ayala Triangle Gardens; the urban oasis; CityGate, the young and creative hub; and Circuit Makati, the entertainment hub. == > http://business.inquirer.net/176675/ali-adds-p65b-in-outlay-for-makati-expansion