drbubb

"I ran to the arms of one Dr.Bubb for advice & solace, only to be told I was a 'lazy investor' !!" Joking? Or is there a little problem there somewhere about something I don't understand?

Do you find chatboards useful too... ? Journeymen to Virtuosos ... using Bulletin Boards (Here's an excerpt from a Review of the book written by: Alistair Blair): ...You could learn a lot from this dazzling dozen and Guy Thomas (himself a private investor on a par with his subjects) sets out the lessons very clearly. And lesson number one is small caps. All but one of the dazzling dozen focus wholly or significantly on small caps (the twelfth is a day-trader of the FTSE350). You should not need to read this book to learn what smallcaps have to offer, starting out with the fact that they are overlooked by institutions. Nevertheless, you will find the comprehensive reprise of their investment virtues spread through this book a valuable master class. Lesson number two is hard work and professionalism. These people all take their investments very, very seriously. Most of them get up early to read the market news, then spend up to 14 hours studying their existing investments and looking for potential new ones. And most of them do not need to do this. They do it because they enjoy it, revelling not in their wealth (many live modestly – another vital contributor to "free capital", although one runs a 70 foot yacht), but in their ability to generate wealth. They do this in very different ways. Two have each made over 30,000 bulletin board posts (often a means of gaining knowledge as well as displaying it). A couple keenly attend company meetings, call directors on the phone (we are in the realm of investors who routinely own several per cent of the - small - companies in which they invest) and go to great lengths to obtain quality scuttlebutt. Most read annual reports very carefully but some only casually. Eight of the 12 are what Guy Thomas calls "surveyors" - that is, their starting point is the company, its balance sheet and its prospects, but two are "geographers" who identify attractive secular trends before they look for the shares most likely to be swept forward by these trends. Half have very focused portfolios with fewer than ten main holdings. Only two have over 50 holdings. Guy Thomas has interesting views about how many shares you should hold - see his "gems vs flower bulbs" posting at guythomas.org.uk/blog. Six have a typical holding period which runs to years. Two often hold shares for only a few weeks. However on one key aspect of investing they are all in agreement: they barely use leverage. Although ten of the 12 investors are not identified (the other two are well known), a central virtue of the book is that it sketches in the career and personal character of each subject. This helps the reader understand the diverse investing styles and encouragingly illustrates how the investors progressed from journeymen to virtuosos

Que?

Yes. That's the problem with Democratic socialism. Those who can vote support those who promise them a better living standard - at someone else's expense. And unfortunately, you are sitting in a place, where you are that "someone else", and those who get hit by the unfairness of it, aren't yet strong enough to end the theft.

THE SEASONAL RALLY is now running out of steam BACK-up DATA GPC - DATA bank: / WHAT HAS HAPPENED since 2009: Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Hometrack %/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx When?: 18th? - 18-20th : - 25 - 30th chg / -28th ? : Next mo.on 8th? 2009 J. : : 213,570 : 386,653 : 158,200 - 1.0% / 150,501 159,818 163,945 163,966 : £155,159 : = n / a : 137.6% F : : 216,163 : 387,988 : 157,000 - 0.8% / 147,746 160,327 160,104 159,208 : £153,477 :- 1.08% :140.8% : LOW M : : 218,081 : 398,867 : 156,100* -0.6% / 150,946 157,326 157,622 157,066 : £154,066 :+0.38% :141.6% A : : 222,077 : 387,161 : 155,600* -0.3% / 151,861 154,716 154,663 157,156 : £154,508 :+0.29% :143.7% M : : 227,441 : 397,646 : 155,600*+0.0% / 154,016 158,565 159,111 160,869 : £157,442 :+1.90% :144.5% J. : : 226,436 : 397,140 : 155,650 +X.X% / 156,442 157,713 158,445 158,807 : £157,624 :+0.12% :143.7% Jl : : 227,864 : 402,761 : 155,650 +X.X% / 158,871 159,623 159,749 160,686 : £159,778 :+1.37% :142.6% A : : 222,762 : 387,265 : 155,806 +0.1% / 160,224 160,973 160,947 161,930 : £161,077 :+0.81% :138.3% S : : 223,996 : 390,768 : 156,118 +0.2% / 161,816 163,533 163,487 164,854 : £163,335 :+1.40% :137.1% O : : 230,184 : 416,157 : 156,430 +0.2% / 162,038 165,528 165,349 165,430 : £163,734 :+2.44% :140.6% : RM HIGH N : : 226,440 : 403,069 : 156,743 +0.2% / 162,764 167,664 167,451 165,617 : £164,191 :+0.28% :137.9% D : : 221,463 : 398,426 : 156,900*+0.1% / 162,103 169,042 168,763 167,260 : £164,681 :+0.30% :134.5% Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Hometrack %/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx 2010 J. : : 222,261 : 407,731 : 156,116 - 0.5% / 163,481 169,777 169,484 165,514 : £164,497 :- 0.11% :135.1% : HFsa HIGH F : : 229,398 : 427,987 : 156,584 +0.3% / 161,320 166,857 166,703 165,997 : £163,659 :- 0.51% :140.2% M : : 229,614 : 417,461 : 157,054 +0.3% / 164,519 168,521 168,433 167,808 : £166,164 :+1.53% :138.2% A : : 235,512 : 421,822 : 157,368 +0.2% / 167,802 168,202 168,212 170,772 : £169,287 :+1.88% :139.1% : H&N HIGH M : : 237,134 : 420,203 : 157,682 +0.2% / 169,162 167,570 167,287 169,204 : £169,183 :- 0.06% :140.2% J. : : 237,767 : 429,597 : 158,700*+0.1% / 170,111 166,203 166,351 166,395 : £168,253 :- 0.55% :140.5% Jl : : 236,332 : 422,248 : 158,500 - 0.1% / 169,347 167,425 167,536 168,331 : £168,839 :+0.35% :140.0% A. : : 232,241 : 405,058 : 158,200 - 0.3% / 166,507 = n/a = 168,124 168,889 : £167,698 :- 0.68% :138.5% S. : : 229,767 : 399,019 : 157,600*-0.4% / 166,757 = n/a = 161,974 163,639 : £165,198 :- 1.49% :139.1% O : : 236,849 : 418,778 : 156,200* 0.9% / 164,279 = n/a = 164,949 165,275 : £164,777 :- 0.25% :143.7% : Hi Delus. N : : 229,379 : 417,279 : 155,575 - 0.4% / 163,133 = n/a = 164,708 163,268 : £163,201 :- 0.96% :140.5% : D : : 222,410 : 408,248 : 155,100 - 0.3% / 162,249 = n/a = 162,435 161,498 : £161,874 :- 0.81% :137.4% : 2011 J. : : 223,122 : 413,259 : 154,300 - 0.5% / 161,211 = n/a = 164,173 161,470 : £161,341 :- 0.33% :138.3% : F. : : 230,030 : 430,680 : 154,000 - 0.2% / 161,183 = n/a = 162,657 161,680 : £161,432 :+ 0.06% :142.5% : M : : 231,790 : 424,307 : 153,850 - 0.1% / 164,751 = n/a = 162,912 162,151 : £163,451 :+ 1.25% :141.8% : A : : 235,822 : 431,013 : 153,850 +0.0% / 165,609 = n/a = ===================================== mom : + 1.7% : + 1.6% : Est.DI: 144.3% / + 0.52% : = n/a = : +0.16% : +0.29% : + 1.25%

Those caps on Housing Benefits need to be screwed down into place.

I should have looked more closely. It is "flow" - ie new lending per quarter. I reckon that loans outstanding will be coming down, but not so fast as they used to, because of the large number of interest only loans. To get at "stock", ie loans outstanding, it would be necessary to start with prior loans, the add new lending and subtract loans repaid.

He realises his fund is wildly overpriced. He is smart enough to see that he can sell down, and use the proceeds to buy Gold and Silver. That allows him to cash a real profit and still stay long "precious" if he wants to.

Is he trying to say that after decades they are both trading at new highs? Someone who shorted at $50 in 1980, could have covered at $4, and generated enough from interest on the profits to be laughing at $100 A JOKE, is it?

Interesting. That will trigger some selling. Professional Put sellers will sell the Puts, and Delta-hedge by shorting some silver - 50% or so if puts are at-the-money

I posted there. An excerpt: "If total outstanding debt, then the debt amount may just need to move sideways for another 1-3 years, and the market may be closer to a low than I had thought."

Great chart. Now here's a dumb question: Is this "stock" or "flow"- ie total Outstanding or volume over a year? If total outstanding debt, then the debt amount may just need to move sideways for another 1-3 years, and the market may be closer to a low than I had thought.

It is beginning to look more like a possible double top. Though volume has been weak, it rally off a nice support level, so it may keep going.

Ask questions in the Fringe section, if you like. Still only a large few handfuls of our members have a serious interest in these topics. But I reckon that interest will grow as people keep watching, and stay aware At the moment: the $50 Silver price attracts 10x the traffic as the NWO sock puppet in the White House

Even better, if you buy one in the USA: LOWER than 1987 ! /source: http://www.PricedInGold.com Whose crazy now? : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=14721

Here's a Link to the BDEV-chart I see what you mean. It is now at a good level to form that Right Shoulder. If it begins to slide there is some decent support around 100p, but it is fragmented now, and less intense. The latest rally from 100-110p has come with minimal volume. This doesn't look like the base for e big bll market too me. BDEV needs more volume.

What sort of psychology buys HK property? (from today's SCMP): A survey on global housing affordability*, published by Demographia International in January, ranked Hong Kong last among 325 urban markets. The territory's median house price was 11.4 times Hong Kong's gross annual median household income. By comparison, New York ranked 68th in affordability, with prices at 6.1 times median income. Atlanta was ranked most affordable; the median home price was 2.3 times income. Honh Kong's housing prices now are above the peak reached in 1997, just before a financial crisis hammered most of the region, Mr. Tsang noted. == == == * Of course, this measure : Median price to median income, ignores certain important facts: + HK has a very low tax, with a MAXIMUM income tax rate of 16%, + Mortgage interest rates in Hk have been amongst the lowest in the world- recently at 1-2% + HK has a superb transport system, so people "waste" little money maintaining cars, and instead put that money into housing + Many HK people work very long hours, and would rather buy a small (expensive) flat close to their workplace, than to buy a larger flat far away, + Smaller flats mean less space to fill with expensive consumer purchases, so more of their money goes directly into housing

Sure. So this is a job for regulators. The should put maximum amounts on LTV, as they do on stock margin loans. If banks want to lend more than that, as 2nd mortgage loans, they should be able, but those loans should have a much larger capital requirement (2x - 3x higher?) associated with them - the risk is genuinely higher. This alone would make such loans more expensive.

... Tips for selling overpriced property ... Want to sell your house? Give it a name If you have trouble selling your house, you should consider giving it a name rather than a number, according to a survey. Property website Globrix found that one in 14 said they would be prepared to pay more for a home just because it had a name Photo: PA By Harry Wallop, Consumer Affairs Editor 6:00AM BST 11 Apr 2011 The name "Rose Cottage", "The Lodge" or "Woodlands" conjures up images of a rural idyll and property full of character, far more than if the same house merely had a street number, according to a survey of 4,000 consumers. As much as pretty climbing flower in the front garden, or a smartly-painted front door, home buyers can be influenced even before they have visited the property, the study suggested. The survey undertaken for the property website Globrix, found that one in 14 said they would be prepared to pay more for a home just because it had a name. Even those that were not prepared to pay more said their opinion of the property would improve, with 40 per cent saying they would be more interested in viewing a property with a name. Land Registry transactional data reveals that 1.4 million of the 26 million homes in Britain have names. With the average house valued at £216,968, just an extra 1 per cent would work out as over £2,000 extra for the same property that simply had its postal address changed to a name. /more: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/houseprices/8441463/Want-to-sell-your-house-Give-it-a-name.html == == Dun Squatin'? Rose Glass Cottage The Devils Den

Telegraph: House price gloom moves up a gear Results from its March survey covering 1,000 people showed 42pc feel house prices will fall further in the months ahead and only 11pc are looking for an improvement /see: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/houseprices/8472296/House-price-gloom-moves-up-a-gear.html How many are going to be buying, when they feel so gloomy? The big gap between bids and offers should worry the bulls. It would be interesting to see the historical correlation between survey results and prices == == In May 2010, a recent highpoint for optimism about the UK housing market, just 16pc of respondents expected prices to fall in the months ahead, compared with 36pc looking for an increase. Prices nationally peaked in April - so optimism peaked with prices. Is it now bottoming? Somehow, I do not thinks so.

They are completely full of --it. That is obviously very clumsy way of trying the spin things, to make their own morality less transparent. A child should be able to see through it.

It would be quite a good thing if they could knock the more highly-geared BTL monsters on their heads. Prudent measures might involve: + A maximum LTV of 70% or 75% for all mortgage loans, but allowing some leeway for owner-occupiers, but NOT BTL + Higher interest rates for BTL loans + A higher stamp duty for anything beyond a second home (A BTL Monster seeking to acquire another property - Many cannot do it without aggressive loans from their banks) These measures would help to reduced HPI, and put homes back in the hands of owner occupiers. I think the time for warfare on this issue is fast approaching. And there may be enough votes to put the BTL brigade back into a less favored position. How realistic are they? + HK caps loans at 70% - but makes some exceptions for Owner occupiers + Some countries have done high rates for BTL loans - that was once the case in the UK + HK recently raised stamp tax for everyone, and put a special sellers tax, on those who sell within 18 months My suggestions would HELP FTBers, and slow the creation

TWO MORE QUESTIONS, Charlie - Choose one, maybe? + Has writing the book changed your own investing sytle? And, if so, how? + If you had to scrap your own way of investing, and try to copy that of one of the investors in the book, whose would that be? (Do you think that style would work well for the average private investor?)

Gold and Gold shares were cheap back in 2001 when I sold my London property to buy gold shares - when gold was below $300. It is not cheap now. It was cheap in late 2008, after a big deleveraging selloff. I also did some buying near $1300 in February this year, after a selloff. And I hope to have cash in hand to buy it next time it is cheap again. But I am focussing my research effort elsewhere now - and I suppose that makes me a contrarian here on the GEI website.