drbubb

Sounds like you are on the way towards something good now

No recovery signs House prices fell by 19.1% in the first three months of the year from the same time last year, the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller National Home Price index suggested. It also showed home prices had fallen 32.2% since peaking in the second quarter of 2006. However, it suggested that the pace of month-on-month declines had slowed. The housing index, which looks at 20 key cities, saw prices fall by 18.7% in March from the year before. These declines were slightly better than February's falls, and it was the second straight month that indexes did not post record drops. But there were still no signs that home prices had hit the bottom, said David M Blitzer, chairman of the S&P index committee. "We see no evidence that a recovery in home prices has begun," he said. /see: http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8068870.stm

How much space have you got? Any problems with the neighbors?

Depreciation of UK Houses = This point is often forgotten, and the usual house price indices obscure this issue, by taking the "average price from their loan applications", rather than specific homes, the Indices pick up an "average" home that gets upgrade and modernised with no adjustment for the price of that work - In effect, the Index is heavily spun in a bullish direction, to help and maintain confidence. Dont fall for this VI scam ! /see: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...30&start=30

I dont think this was meant for me. But just in case it was, I have set the record straight on the "Be Careful about Gold" thread: BTW, I have near record amounts of cash right now, and it is held mostly in C$ and A$. On top of that, I hold a "healthy" number of puts on stocks: US, UK, and HK If the current thin support level goes on SPX, we could see a big down week on stocks next week

RIGHT. Gambling was rife in both places. But the gamblers in the UK still think they can "beat the house"

Listening to it now. It sounds like he has a "black box computersised system" to sell, and he doesnt really want us to know what is in the black box. My own technical work, shows recent price moves have been weak, not strong, it would be interesting to REALLY know what he sees that is different. What kind of track record does he have? I read this: "Because the supply and demand imbalance that MFA determines includes the actions of the gold cartel, or anyone else attempting to manipulate the market, the predictions take into account the cartel's influence (which if it is dominant will actually determine the market direction). Market moves may be counter-intuitive with respect to currency and economic considerations etc but they are NOT counter-intuitive with respect to the prevailing supply and demand imbalance...and it is that which drives price. The key is to know what the prevailing supply and demand imbalance is and then you know what the price will do. This is what this new use of MFA achieves - it determines the prevailing supply and demand imbalance. The cartel influences the supply and demand imbalance to make the price go in the direction they want it to go in; a direction that doesn't make sense to us from macro considerations, but it is totally coherent with their interference." It doesnt tell me anything, and reads like BS from a con-artist. Gata's research and analysis is on very thin ice, and Bill Murphy has admitted this to me in a private conversation, but not in the same words. Dont get sucked in by these shysters! But also, dont reject all their work, some is worthwhile. But most is not. Dig deeper, and see if it passes your own personal "makes sense test."

Another of Bubb's occasional and sometimes- right WARNINGS... Gold may be done here - Be careful There's some "nice symmetry" for a top here http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=6677 If I am wrong, you will get a breakout soon, and it will come with fresh volume.

THERE'S NOT MUCH LIFE in this Dead Cat The recovery: weak but still alive Home economics: David smith Have the housing market’s green shoots already withered and died? The winter rise in mortgage approvals, renewed interest among potential buyers and other measures of housing activity seemed to tell of a situation in which the market was slowly beginning to regain a bit of confidence. These gentle signs of a pick-up were not, it should be said, strong enough to be consistent with an early rise in prices, though in this context it should be said that the market is distorted on both sides. Demand is weak, but so too is supply. It is possible that what economists call equilibrium, when prices are neither falling nor rising, will be achieved at a lower level of transactions this time than in the past. We are not there yet, and the question for the moment is whether the rise in activity to levels consistent with stable prices has already stalled, or worse. Last week, the British Bankers’ Association (BBA) reported that March was a weaker month for mortgage lending than expected. Mortgage approvals by the big banks, having risen for three months from a low point in November, slipped back by nearly 7%, from 28,024 in February to 26,097 in March — leaving them down by just over 25% on a year earlier. Other measures were also weaker: gross mortgage lending fell from £9.2bn to £8.9bn and net lending from £3.9bn to £3.7bn. Nationwide said prices dropped by 0.4% last month, not quite reversing March’s 0.9% rise. Some people saw this as instant confirmation that the apparent pick-up in market activity was a dead-cat bounce, smothered by rising unemployment. Was it? The BBA’s own verdict, from David Dooks, its head of statistics, was that the numbers are consistent with a gentle upward trend in lending. It is a characteristic of such uptrends that you get occasional reversals. Indeed, in contrast to the BBA, Bank of England figures on Friday showed a 4% rise in approvals in March to 39,230. /more: http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle6205992.ece

Nice chart. Seems like a robust inverse relationship. Nevertheless, Rising unemployment doesnt rule out a multi-month Dead Cat bounce. But once it is done, and fall to fresh lows will really crush optimism, and negative sentimeny will help give the market the strong negative sentimeny it needs to create a true bottom

There's normally an overshoot, as people lose confidence in property after some years of losses, and banks dump foreclosed property at distress prices, driving the market still lower. Once they begin to work they way through foreclosures, 3-4-5 years after the peak, the market bottoms at levels where it is cheaper to own than to rent. And people can use the savings as a sort of risk buffer.

Wonderful stats! I have edited the chart, to make this: A chart that should keep every UK homeowner and every UK Prime Minister awake at night ! The UK is truly bankrupt if incomes fail to rise alot, and/or we do the "normal" overshoot on the downside.

CS chart http://www.papereconomy.com/CSI.aspx

Thanks, for the tip. I wonder if we may be seeing the Turn, or at least a good sized correction starting today?

"mortgages approved for house purchases fell to 26,097 in March, down (only) 6.8% from February" the upwards rally will not come in a straight line. but perhaps it is near halfway thru after a few months of recovery in mortgages

I would say at 20% down it was perhaps approaching the beginning of Capitulation. But hope has come roaring back in this Dead Cat bounce and so we will now need to see this phase play out before the real slide comes some months from now when rates shoot up and lead to a prolonged slide into real capitualtion. The excesses of a 14 year bull market will not be corrected after a mere 18 months, and 20% drop. He should know better

'ERE WE GO, 'ere we go, 'ere we go - DEAD CAT Bounce ======== House price plunge slows as rising demand boosts sales By Daniel Thomas, Property Correspondent Published: April 27 2009 House prices fell at the lowest monthly rate for a year in April, fuelling hopes among housing experts that a bottom is being reached in the market. Prices fell by 0.3 per cent in the month, according to the national housing market survey from Hometrack, taking prices down by 10.1 per cent over the last 12 months. Hometrack said this would add to optimism among estate agents on the back of increased levels of market activity and sales during the first three months of 2009. April experienced continued growth in the number of buyers registering with agents, with applicant numbers up by 6 per cent throughout the month and by almost 32 per cent in the past three months. The increase in demand, Hometrack said, together with a move to more realistic pricing, has supported a 15 per cent rise in the number of sales in April. Sales are up by 70 per cent over the last three months, albeit from a very low base. The average time taken to sell has fallen for a third consecutive month, standing at an average of 10.4 weeks compared to a recent high of 12.3 weeks in January this year. The proportion of asking prices being achieved continued to rise, at 89.6 per cent in April compared to a January low of 88.3 per cent. Hometrack's Richard Donnell said the numbers should not be taken as grounds for too much optimism, however. Hometrack expects to see just 600,000 open market sales in 2009, about half what would be considered a normal market. Mr Donnell said that buyers of family housing and cash investors picking up bargains were behind the improved sales volumes of recent months. He asked: "Is this pick-up in activity merely a seasonal blip supported by pent-up demand, or the beginning of a more sustainable trend? The market cannot operate indefinitely with just one sub-set of active buyers. "In the rush to seek out the green shoots of recovery, the importance of first-time buyers in driving the market is often underestimated. And the fact remains that the majority remain affordability constrained and unable to access mortgage finance." According to a separate study by propertyfinder.com today, almost half of a survey of 2,345 people said prices would rise in the next year, a significant improvement in confidence. /see: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/677f29b0-32c3-11...?nclick_check=1

Junior Uranium stocks are looking pretty strong recently

EXTRA RECORD === Week==== : 35tr : prv : CCLI. : MMLI. : 18wkMA .. before /18 01/06/2008 : xxx : xxx : ??.?? : 64.98 01/13/2008 : xxx : xxx : ??.?? : 67.93 01/20/2008 : xxx : xxx : ??.?? : 68.05 01/27/2008 : xxx : xxx : ??.?? : 69.13 02/03/2008 : xxx : xxx : ??.?? : 71.08 02/10/2008 : xxx : xxx : ??.?? : 70.33 02/17/2008 : 137 : xxx : 73.81 : 71.08 : 63.41 .. 02/24/2008 : 153 : xxx : 73.28 : 70.33 : 64.15 03/02/2008 : 159 : xxx : 73.98 : 71.07 : 64.92 03/09/2008 : 186 : xxx : 73.5E : 70.5E : 65.61 03/16/2008 : 169 : 218 : 73.01 : 69.97 : 66.22 03/23/2008 : 121 : xxx : 72.79 : 69.72 : 66.78 03/30/2008 : 134 : 203 : 72.89 : 70.06 : 67.29 04/06/2008 : 146 : 193 : 73.75 : 70.91 : 67.82 04/13/2008 : 124 : xxx : 71.93 : 69.02 : 68.17 .. 1,227.11 04/20/2008 : 160e: xxx : 72.57 : 69.77 : 68.51 .. 1,233.11 04/27/2008 : 171 : xxx : 71.49 : 68.58 : 68.78 .. 1,238.04 05/04/2008 : 173 : 253 : 71.44 : 68.61 : 69.02 .. 1,242.33 / C.C. 05/11/2008 : 178 : 232 : 71.51 : 68.59 : 69.22 .. 1245.94 / $3,115 05/18/2008 : 150 : xxx : 71.86 : 69.11 : 69.40 .. 1249.20 / $3,085 05/25/2008 : 185 : 209 : 72.67 : 69.87 : 69.57 .. 1252.30 / $3,115 06/01/2008 : 170 : xxx : 72.16 : 69.26 : 69.65 .. 1253.63 / $3,127 06/07/2008 : 183 : 203 : 73.23 : 70.26 : 69.77 .. 1255.84 / $3,295 (! High in CC ?) 06/14/2008 : 171 : 211 : 71.30 : 69.61 : 69.80 .. 1256.32 / $3,154 06/21/2008 : 150e: xxx : 72.62 : 69.39 : 69.xx .. 12xx.xx / $3,030 (reflecting: 6/16 - 6/22) 06/28/2008 : 130e: xxx : 73.38 : 70.27 : 69.xx .. 12xx.xx / $3,111 07/05/2008 : 116 : xxx : 72.77 : 69.70 : 69.xx .. 12xx.xx / $3,240 07/12/2008 : 109 : 262 : 72.38 : 69.41 : 69.xx .. 12xx.xx / $3,192 07/19/2008 : 104 : 268 : 71.84 : 68.78 : 69.xx .. 12xx.xx / $3,025 07/26/2008 : 115 : 333 : 71.55 : 68.47 : 69.xx .. 12xx.xx / $3,324 08/02/2008 : 124 : 268 : 70.81 : 67.59 : 69.xx .. ==== / $3,194 (testing lows again!) 08/09/2008 : 112 : 224 : 70.46 : 67.24 : 69.09 .. 65.05 / $2,870 08/16/2008 : 107 : xxx : 70.49 : 67.31 : 68.99 .. 65.27 / $3,140 08/23/2008 : 104 : 157 : 70.13 : 66.92 : 68.83 .. 65.48 / $3,265 08/30/2008 : 123 : 212 : 69.94 : 66.86 : 68.74 .. 65.70 / $3,097 09/06/2008 : 121 : xxx : 68.93 : 65.93 : 68.59 .. 65.89 / $2,974 (testing again...) 09/15/2008 : 098 : xxx : 68.40 : 65.44 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $3,070e 09/22/2008 : 083 : xxx : 68.26 : 65.26 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $3,192 09/29/2008 : 080 : 329 : 67.52 : 64.46 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $3,160 10/06/2008 : 084 : 391 : 67.44 : 64.61 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $3,097 : Black Oct. week 10/13/2008 : 104 : xxx : 66.27 : 63.79 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $3,159 10/20/2008 : 090 : 422 : 64.64 : 62.01 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,925 10/27/2008 : 113 : xxx : 63.40 : 60.94 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,950e 11/03/2008 : 132 : xxx : 61.61 : 59.09 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,984 11/10/2008 : 157 : xxx : 59.93 : 57.94 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,642 11/17/2008 : 129 : 465 : 57.43 : 55.41 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,609 11/24/2008 : 102 : 337 : 57.00 : 55.03 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,496 12/01/2008 : xxx : xxx : 56.92 : 54.99 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,500e 12/08/2008 : xxx : xxx : 57.15 : 55.19 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,512 12/15/2008 : xxx : xxx : 56.71 : 54.77 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,541 (( LOW )) 12/22/2008 : xxx : xxx : 56.93 : 54.99 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,670e 12/29/2008 : xxx : xxx : 56.78 : 54.89 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,581 (Cal. 2009) 01/05/2009 : 191 : xxx : 57.52 : 55.75 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,649 01/12/2009 : 187 : 396 : 57.51 : 55.94 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,698 01/19/2009 : 187 : 396 : 57.99 : 56.42 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,612 01/26/2009 : ??? : 396 : 58.38 : 56.87 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,626 02/03/2009 : 056 : ??? : 58.53 : 57.02 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,612 02/10/2009 : 124 : 072 : 58.35 : 56.75 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,612 02/17/2009 : 152 : 137 : 58.70 : 57.28 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,656 02/24/2009 : 161 : 153 : 58.62 : 57.02 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,545 03/03/2009 : 175 : 159 : 59.45 : 57.78 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,732 03/10/2009 : 157 : 186 : 59.47 : 57.87 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,660e 03/17/2009 : 184 : 169 : 59.74 : 58.25 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,742 03/24/2009 : 240 : 121 : 59.43 : 57.90 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,540 03/31/2009 : 318 : 134 : 60.20 : 58.71 : xx.xx ... xx.xx / $2,595 ==== : Rise from LOW : 6.15%: 7.30% : ==== MMI x46 / CaribC 04/07/2009 : 365 : 146 : 60.10 : 58.48 : xx.xx ... $2,690 / $2,692 04/14/2009 : 327 : 124 : 60.66 : 59.20 : xx.xx ... $2,723 / $2,722 04/21/2009 : 291 : 129 : 61.50 : 60.06 : xx.xx ... $2,763 / $2,695 04/28/2009 : 258 : 171 : 62.83 : 61.29 : xx.xx ... $2,819 / $2,683 05/05/2009 : 157 : 173 : 63.08 : 61.43 : xx.xx ... $2,826 / $2,781 05/12/2009 : 239 : 178 : 64.34 : 62.48 : xx.xx ... $2,874 / $2,634 05/17/2009 : 270 : 150 : 64.30 : 62.56 : xx.xx ... $2,878 / $2,787 05/24/2009 : 242 : 185 : 64.35 : 62.72 : xx.xx ... $2,885 / $2,804 05/31/2009 : 316 : 170 : 65.49 : 63.62 : xx.xx ... $2,926 / $2,944 06/07/2009 : 320 : 183 : 65.00 : 63.18 : xx.xx ... $2,906 / $2,881 06/14/2009 : xxx : xxx : 65.82 : 64.07 : xx.xx ... $2,947 / $2,874 06/21/2009 : xxx : xxx : 67.11 : 65.49 : xx.xx ... $3,013 / $2,967 06/28/2009 : xxx : xxx : 68.42 : 66.77 : xx.xx ... $3,071 / $2,955 ==== : Rise from LOW : 20.6%: 21.9% : ==== MMI x46 / CaribC 07/05/2009 : xxx : xxx : 67.59 : 65.59 : xx.xx ... $3,071 / $2,906 07/12/2009 : xxx : xxx : 68.46 : 66.52 : xx.xx ... $3,060 / $2,948 07/19/2009 : xxx : xxx : 68.62 : 66.73 : xx.xx ... $3,070 / $2,996 07/26/2009 : xxx : xxx : 68.71 : 66.89 : xx.xx ... $3,077 / $3,043 08/02/2009 : xxx : xxx : 69.44 : 67.10 : xx.xx ... $3,087 / $3,140 08/09/2009 : xxx : xxx : 69.51 : 67.33 : xx.xx ... $3,097 / $3,088E? 08/16/2009 : xxx : xxx : 70.12 : 67.62 : xx.xx ... $3,111 / $3,206 +7.00% in a month! 08/23/2009 : xxx : xxx : 70.79 : 68.50 : xx.xx ... $3,151 / $3,084 08/30/2009 : xxx : xxx : 70.72 : 68.31 : xx.xx ... $3,142 / $3,311 09/06/2009 : xxx : xxx : 72.64 : 70.38 : xx.xx ... $3,237 / $3,250e 09/13/2009 : xxx : xxx : 72.06 : 70.07 : xx.xx ... $3,223 / $3,195 09/20/2009 : xxx : xxx : 72.18 : 70.05 : xx.xx ... $3,222 / $3,120e 09/27/2009 : xxx : xxx : 72.92 : 70.95 : xx.xx ... $3,264 / $3,278 ==== : Rise from LOW : 28.5%: 29.5% : ==== MMI x46 / CaribC WeekEnded : HangSI- SQx22: Hk12 :: CCLI : MMIdx ... MMI x46 / CaribC 10/04/2009 : 20,375 - 3,140 : 48.60 :: 72.70 : 70.81 ... $3,257 / $3,096 10/11/2009 : 21,499 - 3,226 : 51.75 :: 73.80 : 71.57 ... $3,292 / $3,257 10/18/2009 : 21,930 - 3,258 : 53.55 :: 73.37 : 71.38 ... $3,283 / $3,283 10/25/2009 : 22,590 - 3,307 : 55.30 :: 73.39 : 71.16 ... $3,273 / $3,247 11/01/2009 : 21,753 - 3,245 : 55.80 :: 73.74 : 71.30 ... $3,280 / $3,150 (Dist.$2,150?) 11/08/2009 : 21,830 - 3,250 : 56.30 :: 73.52 : 71.20 ... $3,275 / $3,161 11/15/2009 : 22,554 - 3,304 : 53.95 :: 73.91 : 71.42 ... $3,285 / $3,304 11/22/2009 : 22,456 - 3,297 : 54.20 :: 73.56 : 71.05 ... $3,xxx / $3,304 11/29/2009 : 21,135 - 3,198 : 51.70 :: 72.61 : 70.00 ... $3,220 / $3,157 12/06/2009 : 22,498 - 3,300 : 59.15 :: 73.03 : 70.87 ... $3,260 / $3,110 12/13/2009 : 21,902 - 3,256 : 57.80 :: 72.79 : 70.61 ... $3,248 / $3,293 12/20/2009 : 21,176 - 3,201 : 55.00 :: 73.08 : 70.79 ... $3,256 / $3,200e 12/27/2009 : 21,517 - 3,227 : 57.65 :: 73.23 : 70.95 ... $3,263 / $3,350 Rise from Low 89.7%: 37.7% : 151% :: 29.1%: 29.5% MMI x46 / +31.8% LOW.......... : 11,345 - 2343 : 23.00 :: 56.71 : 54.77 ... $2,519 / $2,541 01/03/2010 : 21,873 - 3,254 : 58.40 :: 74.07 : 71.77 ... $3,301 / $3,275 : $7,187 01/10/2010 : 22,297 - 3,285 : 59.25 :: 74.87 : 72.69 ... $3,344 / $3,261 : $7,437 01/17/2010 : 21,654 - 3,237 : 56.10 :: 75.08 : 72.86 ... $3,352 / $3,424 : $7,228 01/24/2010 : 20,726 - 3,167 : 51.20 :: 76.17 : 74.09 ... $3,408 / $3,283 : $7,339 01/31/2010 : 20,122 - 3,197 : 49.15 :: 76.05 : 73.55 ... $3,383 / $3,215 : $7,776 02/07/2010 : 19,665 - 3,085 : 47.55 :: 76.67 : 74.25 ... $3,416 / $3,342 : $7,765 02/14/2010 : 20,269 - 3,132 : 50.60 :: 77.03 : 74.57 ... $3,430 / $3,234 : $8,086 02/21/2010 : 19,894 - 3,103 : 48.60 :: 77.26 : 74.74 ... $3,438 / $3,249 : $8,086 02/28/2010 : 20,609 - 3,158 : 52.45 :: 77.96 : 75.65 ... $3,480 / $3,303 : $8,364 03/07/2010 : 20,788 - 3,172 : 53.95 :: 77.01 : 74.72 ... $3,437 / $3,561 : $8,163 03/14/2010 : 21,210 - 3,204 : 54.70 :: 77.24 : 74.82 ... $3,442 / $3,267 : $7,835 03/21/2010 : 21,371 - 3,216 : 56.35 :: 78.63 : 76.43 ... $3,515 / $3,376 : $8,003 03/28/2010 : 21,053 - 3,192 : 56.05 :: 78.69 : 76.25 ... $3,508 / $3,442 : $8,010 Rise from Low 85.6%: 36.4% : 144% : 38.8%: 39.2% MMI x46 / +36.6% 04/04/2010 : 21,537 - 3,229 : 54.90 :: 78.64 : 76.26 ... $3,508 / $3,460 : $8,042 04/11/2010 : 22,209 - 3,279 : 55.15 :: 78.48 : 76.11 ... $3,501 / $3,498 : $8,045 04/18/2010 : 21,865 - 3,253 : 53.10 :: 79.39 : 77.16 ... $3,549 / $3,457 : $8,313 04/25/2010 : 21,244 - 3,207 : 50.40 :: 78.77 : 76.47 ... $3,518 / $3,624 : $8,178 05/02/2010 : 21,109 - 3,196 : 49.85 :: 80.68 : 78.20 ... $3,597 / $3,479 : $8,406 05/09/2010 : 19,920 - 3,105 : 47.35 :: 79.86 : 77.42 ... $3,561 / $3,746 : $8,321 05/16/2010 : 20,145 - 3,123 : 46.55 :: 80.06 : 77.55 ... $3,567 / $3,735 : $8,313 05/23/2010 : 19,546 - 3,076 : 43.60 :: 80.32 : 77.67 ... $3,573 / $3,716 : $8,101 05/30/2010 : 19,767 - 3,093 : 46.80 :: 79.16 : 76.47 ... $3,518 / $3,533 : $8,309 06/06/2010 : 19,780 - 3,094 : 46.70 :: 79.48 : 76.88 ... $3,537 / $3,671 : $8,505 06/13/2010 : 19,872 - 3,101 : 46.60 :: 79.68 : 77.08 ... $3,xxx / $3,500 : $8,496 06/20/2010 : 20,287 - X,XXx : 46.20 :: 79.12 : 76.25 ... $3,xxx / $3,599 : $8,314 06/27/2010 : 20,691 - X,XXx : 47.65 :: 80.12 : 77.43 ... $3,xxx / $3,721 : $8,433 Rise from Low xx.x%: 36.4% : 1xx% : 07/04/2010 : 19,905 - X,xxx : 46.10 :: 80.15 : 77.33 ... $3,xxx / $3,620 : $8,117 07/11/2010 : 20,379 - X,xxx : 47.20 :: 80.90 : 78.62 ... $3,xxx / $3,711 : $8,161 07/18/2010 : 20,250 - X,xxx : 46.10 :: 81.18 : 78.65 ... $3,xxx / $3,575 : $8,595 07/25/2010 : 20,815 - X,xxx : 48.65 :: 81.88 : 79.35 ... $3,xxx / $3,777 : $8,541 08/01/2010 : 21,030 - X,xxx : 48.35 :: 82.14 : 79.73 ... $3,xxx / $3,834 : $8,431 08/08/2010 : 21,679 - X,xxx : 49.60 :: 83.51 : 81.26 ... $3,xxx / $3,698 : $8,268 08/15/2010 : 21,072 - X,xxx : 49.90 :: 83.36 : 80.86 ... $3,xxx / $3,732 : $8,496 08/22/2010 : 20,981 - X,xxx : 48.00 :: 83.57 : 81.03 ... $3,xxx / $3,809 : $8,490 08/29/2010 : 20,597 - X,xxx : 47.00 :: 83.61 : 80.87 ... $3,xxx / $3,804 : $8,529 09/05/2010 : 20,972 - X,xxx : 47.65 :: 84.54 : 81.79 ... $3,xxx / $3,856 : $8,299 09/12/2010 : 21,257 - X,xxx : 49.35 :: 84.16 : 81.30 ... $3,xxx / $3,904 : $8,327 09/19/2010 : 21,971 - X,xxx : 50.30 :: 83.99 : 81.09 ... $3,xxx / $3,873 : $8,371 09/26/2010 : 22,119 - X,xxx : 53.40 :: 85.34 : 82.32 ... $3,xxx / $3,949 : $8,622 10/03/2010 : 22,358 - X,xxx : 55.25 :: 84.85 : 81.83 ... $3,xxx / $3,925 : $8,359 10/10/2010 : 22,944 - X,xxx : 55.95 :: 85.09 : 82.25 ... $3,xxx / $3,940 : $8,640 10/17/2010 : 22,944 - X,xxx : 56.05 :: 85.13 : 82.35 ... $3,xxx / $3,915 : $8,536 10/24/2010 : 23,758 - X,xxx : 57.55 :: 85.62 : 82.88 ... $3,xxx / $3,924 : $8,682 10/31/2010 : 23,096 - X,xxx : 55.05 :: 86.87 : 84.00 ... $3,xxx / $3,955 : $8,870 11/07/2010 : 24,877 - X,xxx : 59.75 :: 87.55 : 84.62 ... $3,xxx / $3,954 : $9,029 11/14/2010 : 24,223 - X,xxx : 59.35 :: 87.41 : 84.70 ... $3,xxx / $4,002 : $9,282 11/21/2010 : 23,606 - X,xxx : 56.85 :: 88.24 : 85.62 ... $3,xxx / $4,012 : $9,225 11/28/2010 : 22,877 - X,xxx : 54.50 :: 88.58 : 86.16 ... $3,xxx / $4,096 : $9,092 12/05/2010 : 23,321 - X,xxx : 54.45 :: 89.41 : 86.75 ... $3,991 / $4,030 : $9,772 12/12/2010 : 23,163 - X,xxx : 53.15 :: 88.27 : 84.99 ... $3,xxx / $3,975 : $9,684 12/19/2010 : 22,715 - X,xxx : 52.50 :: 87.48 : 84.26 ... $3,xxx / $4,008 : $9,134 12/26/2010 : 22,834 - X,xxx : 52.85 :: 88.40 : 85.22 ... $3,xxx / $4,142 : $9,243 ======== 01/02/2011 : 23,035 - X,xxx : 53.00 :: 88.38 : 85.20 ... $3,xxx / $4,007 : $9,048 01/09/2011 : 23,687 - X,xxx : 56.35 :: 90.05 : 87.01 ... $3,xxx / $4,142 : $9,204 01/16/2011 : 24,283 - X,xxx : 55.30 :: 90.01 : 87.10 ... $3,xxx / $4,021 : $8,695 01/23/2011 : 23,877 - X,xxx : 54.70 :: 91.21 : 88.29 ... $3,xxx / $3,998 : $8,898 01/30/2011 : 23,617 - X,xxx : 54.45 :: 90.83 : 87.90 ... $3,xxx / $4,157 : $8,773 02/06/2011 : 23,909 - X,xxx : 54.90 :: 91.45 : 88.85 ... $3,xxx / $4,201 : $9,320 02/13/2011 : 22,829 - X,xxx : 49.70 :: 93.41 : 90.61 ... $3,xxx / $4,309 : $9,330 02/20/2011 : 23,595 - X,xxx : 49.95 :: 93.99 : 91.24 ... $3,xxx / $4,688 : $9,632 02/27/2011 : 23,012 - X,xxx : 47.90 :: 94.81 : 92.13 ... $3,xxx / $4,175 : $9,739 03/05/2011 : 23,122 - X,xxx : 49.65 :: 96.44 : 93.58 ... $3,xxx / $4,336 : $10,024 03/12/2011 : 23,250 - X,xxx : 48.45 :: Query: Past CCI Data :: <a href="http://202.72.14.23/p/cci/SearchHistory.aspx" target="_blank">http://202.72.14.23/p/cci/SearchHistory.aspx</a> <img src="http://img43.imageshack.us/img43/6889/xusd.png" border="0" class="linked-image" /> SUMMARY: Week Ending ========= TOP: ............... CCLI : MMI. x 46 : Est.CC / CaribC Mar.02/2008... 73.98 : 71.07 x46: $3,269 / $ N/A 2nd high: Jun.28/2008... 73.38 : 70.27 x46: $3,232 / $3,111 ($3,295- 06/07/08) LOW: Dec.15/2008... 56.71 : 54.77 x46: $2,519 / $2,541 ($2,496- 11/24/08) ==from HIGH -23.3% -22.9% == - 22.9%/ ==== ( - 24.2%) NOW: Jun.28/2009... 68.42 : 66.77 x46: $3,071 / $2,955 ==from LOW : 20.6%: 21.9%: == 21.9% / 16.3% (+ 18.4%) That's volatility ! <b>In Hong Kong, Prices fell by 23% in less than 6 months, and then rose by 22% in just over 6 months, to be just 2-4% below where they were a year before</b>

Right. We have seen the Guillotine drop (which shows the old cycle is down) Now we are experiencing the Dead Cat bounce Next, comes the "sandpaper slide" where all the bulls get taught a lesson about how hard it is to outlast a long downturn after a huge bubble run-up. It will last for some years

Shaftesbury's Strategy Shaftesbury’s strategy is very clear and focused. The Group invests only in those districts within the West End which have an enduring demand from occupiers and popularity with their customers. Our investments are all close to the unique cluster of shops, restaurants, theatres, cinemas and world class galleries, museums and historic sites, which are the essence of London’s West End. These districts all have excellent access to a wide choice of public transport both day and night. We invest in locations close to streets traditionally regarded as prime with the aim of assembling clusters of buildings or villages where we see opportunities to create rental growth. This approach allows us to benefit from active estate management across our villages, with bold projects and innovative changes of use. We have a wide range of unit sizes and uses within our portfolio which provide us with great flexibility in meeting the needs of tenants and adapting to changing conditions. An essential ingredient of this strategy is our encouragement of new trading concepts. Many of our retail and restaurant tenants are unique. At the same time well known international brands are choosing to locate their first UK stores in our villages. I == I like the transport connection, but retail is gonna get hammered hard, so be sure you have some stops in place

RIGHT on schedule, we see this... Is it time to buy property? David Budworth It's started again. At my local Indian restaurant, the other day, I overheard a conversation that went something like this. Person A: "My shares have been appalling." Person B: "Mine too. I'm thinking of selling them and investing in property." Person A: "Good idea. Property is bound to do better than shares over the next five years, don't you think?" How low can the stock market go? What will be next bubbles in world economy? Person B: "Absolutely." Nothing, it seems, can shake Britons confidence in bricks and mortar, even a near 20 per cent drop in house prices. But here are five myths about property that need to be challenged. ... Fortunately, he goes on to debunk the idea: /more: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/inv...icle6059138.ece

Right you are. No one has said this yet, so maybe I need to say it: A prominent DC bounce is an important part of the correction, because when the slide comes AFTER the bounce it kills hopes that many have, and crushes expectations that people can make money investing on the long side. Imagine how people will feel if they buy now, see a 6% rally, and then watch in horror as hopes-for-recovery are snuffed out, and prices resume their slide. The willingness to invest after that will be even lower than it is today.

Where have you been? I think that this correlation has been ablely demonstrated by me, several times. Others, like Spline have also picked up on it. /see: It may or may not happen this time, but the historical record is so amazingly strong, you should be paying attention when it happens. If we soon get a "dead cat bounce" in home prices, it will have repeated yet again. WHY does it happen? I cannot say for sure, but I believe that there are two main things are at work: + One both measures reflect sentiment towards residential property, and the change shows up in Homebuilder shares faster and more transparently than in the Property indices + People who work for the homebuilders see things changing "on the ground", and though the may not be allowed to buy shares in their own companies, they are free to buy the shares in competitor companies. So prices turn when they get a whiff of the change. I used 252 trading days (= 1 year) as a filter, to show when a move has gone far enough that a new trend is being signalled. This Moving Average works well in several markets that I trade in.