drbubb

I WILL KEEP DOING my warning thing... On DrB's Diary Careful. If we get a major market turn in a week or so, We may see a big run in other stocks (Tech, for example), at the expense of Gold & gold stocks. Many here on GEI are not expecting this, and they may get hammered. The inability of Gold to hold its gains yesterday, could be a warning of what's ahead Here, and on a new thread I do see postings like this here and elsewhere. The thinking that a big surge inflation will be good for property owners is just plain wrong. The problem is that if inflation surges so will interest rates, and that will kill most of the profit potential. The real profits wiull come AFTER the inflation surge, when rates start coming down. You need to run the numbers carefully, and think thru the steps clearly to see what I mean. Unfortunately, most people are not doing that. Perhaps I should start a thread on this critical concept.

some possible levels on the way down ... UPDATE

Shiller: House Prices Still Way Too High Henry Blodget|Feb. 23, 2009, 12:17 PM|6 Professor Robert Shiller stopped by TechTicker last week. Video above. Key points below. * House prices are still only halfway back down to fair value. * Prices don't usually stop at fair value. * Obama's plan won't turn house prices around. And here's the housing chart worth 1000 words, which is based on Prof. Shiller's data: http://www.businessinsider.com/shiller-hou...too-high-2009-2

"I don't see any problem with trading personally. As long as you keep yourself covered with a hefty core position. We are pretty much on this forum all in agreement that gold is going much much higher in the long term" UNQUOTE Let me disagree here with anyone who thinks GOLD MUST KEEP GOING UP. If you failed to lighten up in that rally to the $1,000 Double Top, you may soon regret it. I dont read this thread everyday, but there's seem to be too much agreement here. You are all in danger of getting caught by GROUP THINK. Try to keep an open mind, and check out other parts of this website, like DrB's Diary from time-to-time

Just Out - WORST EVER Figures : -18.5% y-o-y ==more== December Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Fall 18.5% From Year Ago By Timothy R. Homan and Courtney Schlisserman Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Home prices in 20 U.S. cities declined 18.5 percent in December from a year earlier, the fastest drop on record, as foreclosures climbed and sales sank. The decrease in the S&P/Case-Shiller index was more than forecast and followed an 18.2 percent drop in November. The gauge has fallen every month since January 2007, and year-over- year records began in 2001. Record foreclosures are contributing to declining property values and household wealth, crippling the consumer spending that makes up about 70 percent of the economy. The Obama administration has pledged to spend $275 billion to help stabilize the housing market, including $75 billion to bring down mortgage rates and encourage loan modifications. “Falling home prices are prompting potential homebuyers to wait for an even better purchase price,” Steven Wood, president of Insight Economics LLC in Danville, California, said before the report. “Housing’s contribution to economic growth will be significantly negative again” in the first three months of 2009, he said. Economists forecast the 20-city index would fall 18.3 percent from a year earlier, according to the median of 28 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from declines of 17.4 percent to 19 percent. Compared with a year earlier, all areas in the 20-city survey showed a decrease in prices in December, led by a 34 percent drop in Phoenix, a 33 percent slide in Las Vegas and a 31 percent decline in San Francisco. Quarterly Figures S&P/Case-Shiller also released quarterly figures for home prices nationally. That measure showed an 18.2 percent drop in the three months through December from the same period in 2007, compared with a 16.6 percent year-over-year decline in last year’s third quarter. “The broad downturn in the residential real estate market continues,” David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P, said in a statement. “There are very few, if any, pockets of turnaround that one can see in the data.” Consumer confidence this month probably sank to a record low as more Americans become concerned about job losses, economists say the Conference Board’s sentiment index will show today at 10 a.m. Robert Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC and a professor at Yale University, and Karl Case, an economics professor at Wellesley College, created the home-price index based on research from the 1980s. The 20-city index is down 27 percent from its 2006 peak. Monthly Change Home prices decreased 2.5 percent in December from the prior month, exceeding the November decrease of 2.3 percent, the report showed. /more: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

Nuclear power is on the verge of a remarkable comeback. It’s been three decades since an American utility ordered a nuclear plant, but 35 new reactors are now in the planning stage. No-nukes politics has become a distant memory. The most powerful change agents have been the surge in US electricity demand – forecast to grow another 30% by 2030 – and the threat of global warming. Atomic reactors produce no carbon emissions, so energy analysts, politicians and even some environmentalists have embraced them as a clean power source for a wired world, an alternative to fossil fuels that can generate electricity when the sun isn’t shining and the wind isn’t blowing. The specter of a carbon-pricing scheme to address climate change has transformed nuclear economics. And those 35 new plants would barely replace the existing plants scheduled for decommissioning before 2030. America’s existing nuclear plants already prevent the release of nearly as much carbon as America’s passenger cars actually release every year. But the first new plant won’t come on line before 2016. The nuclear industry ran at a record 92% capacity last year, virtually trouble-free. One industry poll found that new reactors are supported by most Americans, including four-fifths of those who live near one. France has 104 varieties of cheese but only one standard reactor, while the US has one cheese but 104 different nuclear-power cartel, uniting America with strong allies Canada and Australia so as to better negotiate with OPEC

Where have you been, Man. ?

POTENTIAL DISASTER? - this makes Neowave's 1-2 weeks of right times seem optinistic Here is what we wrote in that November 7th, 2008 newsletter: "The only other time over the past 85 years when the Dow closed more than four consecutive days below the envelope [ 34.7% below its two year moving average] occurred in the time zone between 1931 and 1933 and if the market begins to make a series of consistent closes below the 34.7% envelope below the moving average, we believe such closes would be the precursor to tragic economic times for this country. If, on the other hand, the Dow can remain above that lower envelope , it would be an optimistic sign that an era such as the 1930s might well be avoided. We will let the markets tell us what the actual prognosis is for the economy." After that newsletter was written on November 7th of last year, the Dow made another excursion below the extreme envelope . It occurred for three consecutive trading days on November 19-21. Once again the Dow scrambled back above that extreme envelope, and in just over two weeks managed to rally over 18% on a closing basis. A reprieve had been gained once again. Fast forward to today. Today, February 20th, 2009, the Dow closed below the extreme envelope for the fourth consecutive day. On Monday, it would need to rally almost 6% on a closing basis in order to move back above the extreme envelope . A failure to do so could well be telling us what extreme economic conditions we are about to face. The December newsletter from last year showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average on a front-page chart accompanied by what we called a 10 year support line. That potentially crucial support was labeled by us as 7385 on the Dow ± a few hundred points. Since January 1998, every price decline of the Dow has held at that level. On at least seven separate monthly occasions, prices moved down to that support level and held. On November 21st, 2008, the Dow registered its lowest intraday price of the year, a reading of 7,449.38, within 0.9% of that decade-long support level. Today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 7,365.67 with an intraday print low of 7,249.47. The lowest extreme intraday low of that group of lows occurred in October 2002 at a reading of 7,197.49. What all this is leading up to is trying to explain what a very, very crucial level the market closed at this week. A convincing break of the 10 year support line would be disastrous for the market. The failure of the market to dramatically rally back above the extreme envelope discussed above within the next one or two trading days could be equally disastrous. As if all that were not enough, a subscriber reminded us today that we are in the Puetz window for a market crash. For newer subscribers we will simply note that Steve Puetz did extensive research on market crashes and found that what he called the eight greatest crashes in financial history all occurred within a few weeks of a lunar eclipse and within six weeks of a solar eclipse. A solar eclipse occurred at the end of January and a lunar eclipse occurred on February 9th. As most subscribers know, our line in the sand was what we called the hidden support level on the S&P 500 which was clinging by its fingernails at yesterday's close. Those fingernails appeared to give way today and it is but one more reason to anticipate a very negative resolution. (that's from Peter Eliades)

Thanks. But it is rather similar to the one being used now - basically, tried to match it For the Credit Crunch site ??? .... .

Peter Schiff is less of an authority on timing and trading than Nealy is - for me anyway. Glenn doesnt get everything right, but I am interested in his point of view. I am recommending lightening upon gold and gold shares, and raising cash for a possible big opportunity in general stocks in a week or two. If SPX soars from early March, it will probably suck money out of the Gold and PM stocks market. In fact, the weakness in silver stocks over the past few days makes me happy that I did some profit taking there recently.

Investment demand has been feeding on itself. And nothing moves in a straight line, so I continue to recommend lightening up. The fading of some gold shares is another warning sign for Gold

I do take him seriously. His track record is superb. He was top Gold timer in 2008. And this is one (of several) reasons I have been lightening up on Gold shares. A drop from a double top to $500 cannot be ruled out. And we are in the right season for a high in Gold, whatever the bulls have been saying.

The ensuing rally was : SMALLER and more compact, than I had expected The day BEFORE the Jan.7th, 2009 top, Neely emailed this: "NEoWave structure, unfortunately, tells me the worst is just about to begin. Within less than two months (it could be as soon as a few weeks or even less), the S&P should embark on one of its most violent, scary declines in market history. Wave structure currently suggests a 50% decline (from current levels) is possible in 1-2 months! The markets are not prepared for this; the world is not prepared for this, but we will have to deal with it. The only way this will not occur is if the cash S&P is able to exceed 1006 before breaking last year's low. If 1006 is exceeded, then the future is not clear and I will have no opinion for a while. As long as 1006 is not exceeded, the outlook is dire. As most of you know, I turned officially bearish on the U.S. stock market in mid January 2008. From that point forward, the S&P moved almost exactly as expected all year. Unlike the last 12 months, the next 12 months will be the most treacherous we've ever seen. The only good news I have to report is that, after the big drop, the bear market will be over; but, by then, no one will believe me and the majority of the public will no longer be interested in the stock market. Mutual fund redemptions will reach historic levels - within 1-2 years, financial business and radio shows will start to go off the air and the public's disgust with Wall Street will be so high that a pandemic of law suits will breakout. I do not like being the purveyor of bad news, but wave structure tells me 2008 was just the warm-up for what's coming.' Thank goodness, his "1-2 month period" will be over in about 10 days - 2 weeks

His gold call does not look brilliant. I want to check and see if he has recanted Guess what? I found this: Glenn Neely was recently named the #1 Gold Timer (last 12 months) in the December 8, 2008, edition of Timer Digest. In addition, Timer Digest ranked Glenn in the Top 5 S&P Timers for the last 6 months of 2008 (6/08 to 12/08). Join me in congratulating Glenn on this superb accomplishment, particularly considering the historic volatility of recent markets. In an interview with Ike Iossif, Glenn discusses his outlook on Gold and his expectations for a long-term deflationary environment: http://www.neowave.com/company-nov2008interview.asp

I am playing about with an Elliott Wave count Half of the SPX peak of 1561.8 is SPX-780.9 Monday's close was: SPX-770.05 Change: -8.89 Half of the SPX peak of 1561.8 is SPX-780.9 Monday's close was: SPX-743.33. About 5% below the "half" level. I am certainly hoping the stock market hang "hang in" near these levels, else we may see a much more serious breakdown (to SPX-600 or whatever) Other points: 1997 Low was: 737.65 (4/11/1997) / Nov. 2008: 752.44 (11/20/2008) The Intraday low on 11/21/2008 : 741.02, but closed at 800.03 +6.3% ==OTHER COMPARISONS=== Index= 4/11/97 : 11/20/08 : 02/23/09 ===== ====== : ====== : ====== SPX.... : 737.65 : .. 752.44 : .. 743.33 INDU.. : 6391.7 : 7552.29 : . 7114.78 nasdaq 1206.9 : 1316.12 : . 1387.72 SOXX : 273.08 : .. 171.32 : .. 189.11 XAU... : 100.72 : .. $70.08 : .. 128.33 OSXX : $72.80 : .. 105.41 : .. 112.07

My own charts: I think we are very near a reversal in both (possibly even before early March target) chart ... 4years : 10years : update == == EWI's charts http://www.elliottwave.com/features/default.aspx?cat=mw

REMEMBER WHEN all those immigrants into the UK were going to keep property rising? UK Poles return home "Friendly team of hard-working Polish builders. Call Jacob", read the flyers that were regularly dropped through the letter boxes of a British suburban town As the country slides deeper into recession, the building trade contracts and the pound plummets against the zloty, there is little reason for many of the estimated 700,000 Poles who flocked to Britain after their country joined the EU in 2004 to remain. The builders and plumbers have packed up their trowels and spanners and are heading east now that the main purpose for moving to the Britain – making money to send back home – has been taken away. There is, however, another inconspicuous contingent that is departing British shores. They are the educated, middle-class Poles who have decided that Britain is no longer a land of opportunity and it is time to return to the country of Copernicus and Pope John Paul II. Teachers, hotel managers, vets and bankers are all among the 200,000 Poles who have gone home in the past year, according to the Federation of Poles in Great Britain. "I think more people will come back if they lose their jobs in the UK or are offered well-paid jobs in Poland," said Andrzej Rynkovski, a market research analyst in Warsaw who returned two months ago. Mr Rynkovski, who has a degree in finance and banking from the Warsaw School of Economics, spent three "enjoyable" years in England working for AC Nielsen, mostly at Tesco's headquarters in Cheshunt, Hertfordshire. "I doubled my pay when I moved to England," he said. "But the pound has fallen from seven zlotys to four, so it's not so good if you want to send money back to Poland." Britain might be struggling with recession, but the Polish economy has performed well since it joined the EU, helped by billions of pounds in EU grants for roads and other big infrastructure projects. The credit crunch has not had anything like the impact it had in the United Kingdom because Poland's mortgage market is still young and banks have not handed out loans as recklessly as their British counterparts. /more: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/...eturn-home.html

Notice any simularities? As I have explained before, I created the logo like that, and left it like that because: + I was vaguely aware of Harrison, and heard he had a 2008 peak in his forecast + I thought that if the market didnt crack in 2004/5, that that meant the peak then was only a 3rd wave, that a 4th wave sideways, and 5th wave up were due, + A 5th wave would push UK property prices to a dangerous level, and would be followed by a very sharp selloff. I kept my Logo on the other site, but not here because I wanted to move on. But the forecast it contained is worth recalling == == == (Done later): Instead of: "I got my foot on the housing ladder" Say: "I stepped into the housing precipice, hoping it would be a bungy-jump." . The real situation of UK Housing Jumpers .... - .... Some saw it coming, got out Poll on : STR, has it worked? Poll: After the "Housing Ladder" (on HPC)

Time to reconsider GEI"s mission? More about education perhaps?

More logo possibilities #1/ .. #2/ .. #Old ..

(from the GEI Conference call this Wed. thread): To be discussed then ...? Gold uber alles - Is it the "only remaining Safe Haven" ? Banks (BKX) have stayed weak, as money has fled them, seeking a Safe Haven. Here's Gold (GLD) vs. TBonds and Yen ... 6-mos.update : YTD-Since Jan.1 US T-Bonds (TLT) and the Yen (FXY) are tailing off, while Gold (GLD) stays strong. The favoring of Gold is even more pronounced since the beginning of the year.

I still like buying GLD and maybe GBS.L and of course Gold shares I am studying the products of our new advertiser on GEI: http://www.PreciousMetalsClub.com (see button at top) & new thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=5873

I still like buying GLD and maybe GBS.L and of course Gold shares I am studying the products of our new advertiser on GEI: http://www.PreciousMetalsClub.com (see button at top) & new thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=5873

London Luxury-Homes Prices Have Second-Biggest Drop on Record The average value of homes costing more than 1 million pounds ($1.4 million) in London’s most expensive neighborhoods fell 3.7 percent from a month earlier, Knight Frank LLP said in an e-mailed statement today. In the past 12 months, prices have slumped 21 percent, the biggest annualized drop recorded by Knight Frank. “The sudden restriction of mortgage finance” was the main cause of the market’s decline last year, Liam Bailey, head of residential research at London-based Knight Frank, said in the statement. “This factor is continuing to cause problems for the housing market and the wider economy.” == He should say: "The sudden return of mortgage lenders to sanity..." was the main cause of the market’s decline last year ====== Meantime... COMPLACENCY RULES OKAY on the SP (SanityPoor) website: Two new surveys have indicated that house prices are still dropping. The latest Nationwide figures out a couple of days ago have revealed a price fall of 1.3 per cent from December to January, taking the average price to £150,501. Over the last year the decline has been 16.6 per cent An investor could consider buying at the bottom of the market. In my humble opinion as a stock trader, that’s a mistake. No one knows when the bottom is, so stock traders and many property experts that I know simply adopt the following strategy: Buy on the way down and the way up. You will catch the bottom anyway and some bargains along the way. If you try and time the bottom, you (and me) will get it wrong. I went to see Vanish Patel speak at the Berkshire Property meet and he has been investing since 2001. He made his property work when prices were going up (year on year), now he is still buying. Vanish is going to be a very rich man. Mark I'Anson Property UNQUOTE What a great name: Vanish Patel. I reckon that rather than getting rich, Mr.Patel's wealth is bound to vanish

TOO MANY GOLD BULLS - be very careful now! I have seen polls where 90%+ of the people polled were bullish on gold. From my Feb. diary: Dash for cash - Why? People have become too bullish on gold. Something like 90% of people polled were saying that Gold was a "Buy." Here's a question: If you thought gold was headed higher to $1,000 or $1,500, would you wait for the market to run up to buy it, or would you have bought already. If those who are planning to buy gold have bought already, who is going to do the buying to lift it higher? This may be a problem for the gold market from here. I am still long gold shares (quite a few of them in fact), so if Gold runs higher, I will make money. But I have been lightening up everyday in a "dash for cash"