Bubble Pricker's Trading diary

[Bubble Pricker]

I have had some good humoured private banter with Dr. Bubb about our opposing views on where the stock market is headed.

 

So that we all have actual facts, I will post all my index trading activity here, with actual profits and losses taken, so that there is no more argument over who was right and who is wrong and who makes money in the longer term. I will only post trades here, not nebulous statements such as "we may get a bounce", "I have gone long", "later in the year the market will be lower" etc. etc. So the numbers can speak for themselves.

 

To log my trades, I am using a fictional account that will have up to 10 NASDAQ-100 futures contracts open at any one time. I will record points gained/lost on the index. To make it realistic, I will subtract 2 big points per trade (not per contract) from the gain/loss when a trade is closed, to account for slippage and commissions. This is a very generous allowance and far exceeds real life commision and slippage. When closing positions partially, I will calculate the realised profit from the first opened trade (FIFO) and adjust the average cost of the remaining contracts accordingly.

 

So let's catch up on where I am on current trades:

 

Prior to 07 June 2010: no position

 

07 June 2010: Bought 2 June10 at 1802.00 - Open exposure: long 2 at average 1802.00

10 June 2010: Bought 2 June10 at 1826.50 - Open exposure: long 4 at average 1814.25

14 June 2010: Sold 3 June10 at 1847.75 to roll - Realised Profit 110.75 points (2 points deducted for cost)

14 June 2010: Bought 3 Sep10 at 1846.50 to roll

15 June 2010: Sold 1 June10 at 1882.50 - Realised Profit: 54.00 points (2 points deducted for cost)

15 June 2010: Open exposure: long 3 Sep10 at average 1846.50

17 June 2010: Bought 1 Sep10 at 1905 - Open exposure: long 4 at average 1861.125

 

Running total realised profit/loss: +164.75 points

 

I am not posting running unrealised loss/profit, as I do not want to update this post every day. You can work out the running unrealised loss/profit by taking the last posted Open Exposure and work it against the current level of the NASDAQ-100

 

The above list will be updated whenever I post new trading activity.

[drbubb]

I have had some good humoured private banter with Dr. Bubb about our opposing views on where the stock market is headed.

Prior to 07 June 2010: no position

Thanks, BP.

Regular readers here, will know that I covered shorts on/near the lows, was net long for some time in late May/ early June.

That I took profits on those longs last week, and started adding shorts late in the week.

 

I am expecting a near term top in the market, perhaps an important one.

 

Today, stocks should open higher, but I do not expect a lasting rally

 

[Bubble Pricker]

Regular readers here, will know that I covered shorts on/near the lows, was net long for some time in late May/ early June.

That I took profits on those longs last week, and started adding shorts late in the week.

 

Just to be clear, "no position before June 9" means no positions immediately before June 9. Of course I had positions before June 9 and I could brag about how many points I made on the NASDAQ-100 between January 2010 and April 2010 (unlike those trying to short the market), but that is not the point of this blog, which will look at trades from hereon.

[drbubb]

For the record, here's what happened on Monday:

 

 

SPX : 1,113.20 Change: -4.31 / Percent Change: -0.39%

Open: 1,122.79 High: 1,131.23 Low: 1,108.24

 

This could be a turn.

The Bears will want to see: a continuing slide with escalating volume.

 

Look what happened to Apple:

AAPL: 270.17 Change: -3.904 / Percent Change: -1.45%

Open: 277.69 High: 279.01 Low: 268.73 / Volume: 27,731,779

 

QQQ was down -0.86%

[Bubble Pricker]

Yes thanks. As my OP states, this blog is about trades in the NASDAQ-100, so not quite sure how the SPX chart is relevant.

And if you look at the current open exposure, I still have unreliased profits of about 40 points times 4 = 160 points (as of yesterday's close).

 

 

[drbubb]

Yes thanks. As my OP states, this blog is about trades in the NASDAQ-100, so not quite sure how the SPX chart is relevant.

Oh Dear!

 

[Bubble Pricker]

For the record, here's what happened on Monday:

This could be a turn.

 

This is the sort of wholly statement you will never hear from me. In this thread you will see only trades and a rising level of total cumulative p/l.

 

I continue net long with 4 open contracts in my fictional portfolio of up to 10 contracts on the NASDAQ-100. The reason is simple: the upwards trend remains intact. I do not know if it will continue or be broken. If it is broken, I will close the longs, if not not they will continue.

[drbubb]

This is the sort of wholly statement you will never hear from me. In this thread you will see only trades and a rising level of total cumulative p/l.

 

I continue net long with 4 open contracts in my fictional portfolio of up to 10 contracts on the NASDAQ-100. The reason is simple: the upwards trend remains intact. I do not know if it will continue or be broken. If it is broken, I will close the longs, if not not they will continue.

Hmm.

"Upwards trend intact" - If you saw the profits in my shorts, you may not agree.

What time frame are you using?

 

[drbubb]

50% in a day - Howzat ?

 

I bought TZA - 100x Jul.$5 calls at under $1.50 yesterday, they are worth about $2.25 today.

This was a little add-on to a bigger short position

 

You might find that your "uptrend" fades pretty soon

[GTG]

Are you both using fictional money?

[drbubb]

Are you both using fictional money?

 

I'm not.

I sold options for over $xx,000* yesterday, and still remain very short,

with over ?x that amount still in Puts on SPY, QQQQ. Calls on: SDS, BGZ, QID, and TZA

This is an important part of my livelihood

 

*Hint: My remaining options are worth more than the average US house

[Bubble Pricker]

Are you both using fictional money?

 

I'm trading real money, but not necessarily in the size of the fictional portfolio here.

[Bubble Pricker]

50% in a day - Howzat ?

 

Have you taken into account all the other times since January 2010 when you bought puts and the market just kept going up?

 

It's easy to make a single profit and boast about it. All I can see from your trading blog is that you almost constantly announce that a "turn" is around the corner, and most of the tome it does not come and the market just continues its previous direction.

[Bubble Pricker]

23 June 2010: Bought 1 Sep10 at 1853 - Open exposure: long 5 at average 1859.5

 

Running total realised profit/loss: +164.75 points

[littledavesab]

Hey Bubble. Have you checked the Loz n Belly podcast - it might suit your way of thinking

 

They recognise the risks ( I think) but are less bearish than many on here.

 

http://loznbelly.blogspot.com/

 

[drbubb]

Have you taken into account all the other times since January 2010 when you bought puts and the market just kept going up?

 

It's easy to make a single profit and boast about it. All I can see from your trading blog is that you almost constantly announce that a "turn" is around the corner, and most of the tome it does not come and the market just continues its previous direction.

 

I have swung from long to short several times in the last few months, and made money each time.

 

In fact, have downsized a very large position by approximately half in the last two days,

realising a very nice profit. I am expecting a low on Friday or Monday, and then a bounce into July.

 

Will it go to "new highs" near SPX-1200? I do not think so.

Meantime, If the market collapses Friday or Monday, I will book even more profit.

And if we see a rally, I expect to be building shorts again, near SPX-1150.

 

Will I go long Friday/Monday (for a brief trade into July?)

It depends on volume and how the charts look.

[Bubble Pricker]

I have swung from long to short several times in the last few months, and made money each time.

 

You have not made a profit each time. You were bearish throughout February and March and you publicly declared that you had bought puts. What happened to those? Did you sell them at a loss? Did they expire worthless? Why don't you post all your trades, losers and winners, like I do, and then we can see.

[Bubble Pricker]

Update:

 

I have slightly amended the method of calculating realised profits/losses. Rather than using FIFO, I will calculate the realised profit/loss from the last average price. The average price for any remaining open positions will then just be carried forward rather than adjusted. This is less complicated and makes the trading sequence easier to read. It does not change the end result.

 

07 June 2010: Bought 2 June10 at 1802.00 - Open exposure: long 2 at average 1802.00

10 June 2010: Bought 2 June10 at 1826.50 - Open exposure: long 4 at average 1814.25

14 June 2010: Sold 3 June10 at 1847.75 to roll - Realised Profit 98.5 points (2 points deducted for cost)

14 June 2010: Bought 3 Sep10 at 1846.50 to roll

15 June 2010: Sold 1 June10 at 1882.50 - Realised Profit: 66.25 points (2 points deducted for cost)

15 June 2010: Running total realised profit/loss: +164.75 points

15 June 2010: Open exposure: long 3 Sep10 at average 1846.50

17 June 2010: Bought 1 Sep10 at 1905.00 - Open exposure: long 4 at average 1861.125

24 June 2010: Bought 1 Sep10 at 1853.00 - Open exposure: long 5 at average 1859.50

24 June 2010: Sold 3 Sep10 at 1846.50 - Realised Loss: -41 points (2 points deducted for costs)

24 June 2010: Running total realised profit/loss: +123.75 points

24 June 2010: Open exposure: long 2 Sep10 at average 1859.50

29 June 2010: Sold 2 Sep10 at 1777.00 - Realised Loss: -167 points (2 points deducted for costs)

29 June 2010: Running total realised profit/loss: -43.25 points

29 June 2010: Open exposure: nil

06 July 2010: Sold 1 Sep10 at 1734.25 - Open exposure: short 1 at average 1734.25

07 July 2010: Sold 2 Sep10 at 1731.50 - Open exposure: short 3 at average 1732.42

 

Running total realised profit/loss: -43.25 points

 

 

I got caught out on 29th June with 2 remaining long positions when the market went into a swift downturn. The remaining 2 long positions were stopped to limit losses. Unfortunately this has resulted in giving away all previous profits in June from the upswing, and actually moving into overall realised loss territory. This happenes to traders and one needs to put these things behind and move on.

 

I am now short with three contracts from an average of 1732.416666666.

 

 

 

 

[romans holiday]

I think it is a good point that if you are going to make public some of your trades, you should make public all of your trades. The temptation, which faces everyone, is to put a spin on things, or put things in the best possible light. The impression can be given to others that trading is relatively easy and profitable... you just need to know what you're doing. The reality is more that even the knowledgeable traders nearly get it wrong as often as they get it right.

[drbubb]

You have not made a profit each time. You were bearish throughout February and March and you publicly declared that you had bought puts. What happened to those? Did you sell them at a loss? Did they expire worthless? Why don't you post all your trades, losers and winners, like I do, and then we can see.

I dont make a profit every time this year, since I do so many trades.

 

But I have been very consistently profitable since March, and just look at my postings on this thread, or the titles given at the beginning of each month's DrBubb's Diary, and you will get a sense of my record. (I have to say that the last half of 2009 was not a time of my best stock market calls, but 2010 seems back on form so far):

 

HITS, Historical record

====

Jun.10 : xxx posts / x,xxx hits : A June slide in stocks & oil, could drag Gold lower

May.10 : 259 posts / 12,726 hits : The gap between Gold & stocks is closing, & may reverse

Apr.10 : 110 posts / 7,133 hits : Gold may be set for another run; stocks vulnerable

Mar.10 : 176 posts / 9,930 hits : Ready now / or very soon for a bigger fall?

Feb.10 : 171 posts / 7,967 hits : Chopping around, to "build cause" for a bigger fall? (started late)

Jan.10 : 256 posts / 12,737 hits : Tired market, may rollover after initial blip up

Dec.09 : 234 posts / 10,406 hits : Gold has outrun stocks, can rallies survive into '10?

Nov.09 : 546 posts / 20,407 hits : Bigger slides in Stocks and Gold dead ahead?

Oct.09 : 452 posts / 18,383 hits : Deflationary downswing? But only if the USD rallies

Sep.09 : 251 posts / 11,772 hits : The Deflationary downswing has started, look out below

Aug.09 : 228 posts / 11,980 hits : Wonderful time to short stocks? And Buy Gold soon?

July.09 : 187 posts // 9,605 hits : Starting with more cash, + more shorts thru options

Jun.09 : 143 posts // 6,553 hits : Starting with high cash levels, + shorts thru options

May.09 : 140 posts / 6,452 hits : Starting with high cash levels, + shorts thru options

Apr.09 : 116 posts / 5,216 hits : Starting with mucho cash, awaiting another up move

Mar.09 : 278 posts / 9,175 hits : Rallying back from Feb. / DB Portfolio Up 30%+

[drbubb]

I think it is a good point that if you are going to make public some of your trades, you should make public all of your trades.

There's not enough space on GEI, and I dont have the time...

 

[Perishabull]

Have you taken into account all the other times since January 2010 when you bought puts and the market just kept going up?

 

It's easy to make a single profit and boast about it. All I can see from your trading blog is that you almost constantly announce that a "turn" is around the corner, and most of the tome it does not come and the market just continues its previous direction.

 

 

Hi BP, thanks for this diary. Can I make a suggestion? To demonstrate profitability through your trading activities is interesting, however, what I and perhaps others might find more interesting is if you were to elaborate on your decision making process and reasoning behind the trades that you select. Also, I remember you purchased 4 October 2009 sugar futures contracts way back when.

 

Bubble Pricker

 

Jan 14 2008, 02:45 PM

 

I have just bought 4 contracts Oct 09 Sugar#11 @ $13.20.

 

Perhaps I missed it but I don't recall your posting the closure of that trade, just curious.

 

Thanks

[jerpy]

I think it is a good point that if you are going to make public some of your trades, you should make public all of your trades. The temptation, which faces everyone, is to put a spin on things, or put things in the best possible light. The impression can be given to others that trading is relatively easy and profitable... you just need to know what you're doing. The reality is more that even the knowledgeable traders nearly get it wrong as often as they get it right.

 

Thats what I like about Robbie Burns blog, but I notice its called a public portfolio and bet he doesn't publish all his trades?

 

Anyway, you can easily judge a poster when he's got it wrong. Remember asking Dr B about a stock he'd flagged up that went the wrong way, he must have missed my question as didn't get a reply But I didn't look to castigate him, since anyone who is big enough to publish trades should be given their due even if they are wrong, as others can always learn from their mistake.

 

B.P, Dr.B and quite a few others trade in a manner outside my comfort zone, so it's interesting to read all points of view, without knocking each other's trading decisions.

 

Riggers

b.t.w not having a go at your post either.

[drbubb]

I may move the Blog-Journals to another section.

Please comment / here: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....showtopic=10777

 

If you don't want the move, and a majority with Blogs also do not want it,

I will very happily leave things as is.

 

The idea was to make it easier to get to the Blog-Journals, and to increase visibility