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On the Wings of Gold: GF's GAMBLING & COMMODITIES Thread


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Well, that's what I did back in December. So far I have lost over 30% on my levered NatGas. :)

 

 

It's on the floor, nobody wants it. Seems like an obvious choice, but it's still 'falling knife' territory for the moment, so leverage would be an absolute no-no for me.

 

Can anyone point me in the direction of some beaten up producers? The charts on the majors like Devon and Southwestern don't exactly give much of a risk/reward incentive and the US natural Gas Fund is, to be frank, an abomination I wouldn't touch with a barge pole.

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Nat gas...

 

Does your holding have negative carry? Wouldnt mind finding one i can buy and forget about? (Hopefully not forever though...)

I am in a double levered ETC. The recent move down in price and the contango issue hit me hard. I did my research on it, so it's not exactly surprising that I am losing, but I do think prices will go up somewhen. :rolleyes:

 

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My $300-oil call has now doubled in value since January when I bought it (according to my broker's statement).

 

I couldn't know the Arab Revoution would start and spread like this. But all these options seemed dirt cheap back then considering the risks, like peak oil and geopolitical.

 

Obviously, such an out-of-the-money option can be all over the place. Should it ever fall back to where I bought it within a year or so, I'll stock up on it. :) Maturity is Nov 2016 - come on!

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I am in a double levered ETC. The recent move down in price and the contango issue hit me hard. I did my research on it, so it's not exactly surprising that I am losing, but I do think prices will go up somewhen.

 

The other side of this nuclear debacle could be the leg-up Nat gas has been looking for?

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The other side of this nuclear debacle could be the leg-up Nat gas has been looking for?

We'll see. I am not too optimistic for NatGas.

 

I think oil will do OK.

 

The uranium miners have crashed a little, but it could have been worse. Then, there might be more to come with the three reactor cores melting.

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There's blood in the uranium miners' streets, to say it with Rothschild.

 

Only had one myself and managed to evasive action, somewhere down the line there looks a big buying opportunity coming to me. Just a case of not wanting to catch a falling knife though.

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DER SPIEGEL announces the end of the nuclear age.

 

That makes me super bullish on uranium stocks.

 

Because, who knows, it might be the start of the real nuclear age. Where there is no alternative, but to improve this technology.

 

titel.jpg

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I will double my Hathor Exploration holdings soon -- at half price.

Done that a few days ago.

 

Next time I will add to Strathmore. They're still going down, so maybe end of this week or early next week I might take the plunge.

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DOUBLE POST

 

$124 Brent.

 

Don't let the banksters trick you out of your hard-earned hedge.

 

Over the past few days, while new price records have been set in the spot market, some of my 2016 call options have gone down in price. That's what the banksters would try to do: make you believe your hedge doesn't work. These guys are desperate. They sold far out of the money options for super cheap, and now these options move more and more towards the money, with all the fundamentals lined up for it too.

 

Don't be fooled.

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I have now said good-bye to the NatGas double-levered widowmaker :) (at a 25% loss, but it had been worse!), and will re-allocate that money into uranium juniors within short time. As for timing, NatGas has recovered a little recently, and might do more so in the future, but I just think that the value in uranium miners is much better at this time.

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Bought "Carbon Sciences" (efficient NatGas to Petrol tech startup; see recent FSN interview).

 

I was the first client ever(!) to buy this share from my broker, and this is a huge European brokerage. The early bird catches the worm, I suppose. :)

 

Will buy more Pinetree at the next opportunity. Share prices very beaten down.

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DOUBLE POST (sort of)

 

Endeavour Mining Co:

 

I am considering buying a few shares. Studying this here at the moment: http://www.endeavourmining.com/i/pdf/Presentations/EDV-2011-Q2-PPT.pdf

 

Why did they have such a hard time to recover from the 2008 plunge? Most miners I know have fared much better in terms of stock price.

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Bought some GORO. Next most likely Yamana.

 

Thanks everyone for the input. Marceau you're right with the management issues and dilution. It is like a minefield out there. That's why I appreciate analysts like John Doody, Brent Cook, but also our very own Frizzers to see through the fog. Anyway, that's most likely also why I will stick with mid Tier producers and won't go too risky. Although, I just bought Gold Resource Corp. (GORO), but given that Doody and Frizzers recommend them, I thought I could risk it. :) After all, they are obviously producing.

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The gold & silver mining shares look ludicrously undervalued to me. I will buy more while this continues. In fact, shares are the only thing I have been buying recently.

 

My oil hedge is in place and stays there for good. The value has fallen, but it is an insurance, so if disaster does not strike, I shall lose my premium. However, I believe that disaster will strike big time before November 2016 when my options will expire.

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There are alot of BUYS here, GF.

 

What and when do you sell to finance the purchases?

Or do you juts have a big cash inflow to invest?

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Hey GF thinking back to when you first posted about buying miners was if myy memory serves me well around Oct 2008 so that would have been good timing, congrats.

Out of interest, may I ask what you bought back then ?

 

Am wondering if time will show your latest actions to have decent timing when the short term time span is extended to a medium term horizon.

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