drbubb Posted January 5, 2007 Report Share Posted January 5, 2007 $800 is nothing... Jim Turk thinks it is going to 10x that. GOLD chart ... update “Gold is going to $8000 an ounce and silver $400! And it’s going there quicker than you think!” so says James Turk in the latest edition of Commodity Watch Radio. James Turk. The programme also features interviews with "Dr Bubb", as he outlines five rules of investing ; and the CEOs of three mining companies Gold Resource Corporation, Wits Gold and Kazakh Gold. http://www.minesite.com/webcasts/commodity_watch_radio.html . UPDATED - with cycles = = = IF THERE is anything to these bullish forecasts, This early Jan.2007 slide may be setting us up for a GREAT BUYING opportunity. Let's discuss it. The Old Nov-Dec Gold thread : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=1091 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted January 5, 2007 Report Share Posted January 5, 2007 The next two years will be absolutely giant for gold. You will make money you never dreamed of making. This is what betting parlance calls the lock – the-can’t-lose bet. The two biggest recipients will be gold and silver shares and numismatic coins, following by silver numismatics, and gold and silver bullion and bullion coins. Share multiples will go ballistic - $850 and $25 will be broken in 2007 and we may well see $1,700 and $100. http://news.goldseek.com/InternationalFore.../1167850347.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted January 5, 2007 Report Share Posted January 5, 2007 But http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1167840180.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubble Pricker Posted January 5, 2007 Report Share Posted January 5, 2007 http://news.goldseek.com/InternationalFore.../1167850347.php[/url] Statements like these make the whole article look rather ridiculous: The recovery in real estate from 2001 through 2005 didn’t happen by chance. It wasn’t part of a recovery cycle. It was planned and executed by the Federal Reserve. [...]We see as an excellent possibility that George W. Bush will be assassinated by the Illuminati [...] It is inconceivable Brown is in line for Tony Blair’s job as P.M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 5, 2007 Author Report Share Posted January 5, 2007 GOLD: THIS AREA, right near $600 is my target. It could go further, but I am buying calls on gold shares here, because there may well be support at $600. I am pretty close to fully invested, without any gearing (other than my SPX puts) SPX: May still break convincingly below that trendline, and close lower, before the day is out TLT: Strangely, has fallen sharply from the better opening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 6, 2007 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2007 TIME TO START SHIFTING...? Out of precious metals into energy? Maybe. See charts and comments: WTI-to-Oil Cross market intelligence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diogenes Posted January 6, 2007 Report Share Posted January 6, 2007 http://www.cfr.org/publication/12346/ This is interesting. The FT usually trashes gold but this article, written by an author from the Council on Foriegn Relations, was published there yesterday. Hopefully a trial balloon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted January 6, 2007 Report Share Posted January 6, 2007 Statements like these make the whole article look rather ridiculous: He also advises keeping guns at home, just in case ... Nevertheless, he seems to make money and his subscribers do too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 6, 2007 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2007 "Is this interpretation correct?", Frizzers asked (on advfn), as he posted this chart: xx-may i post here-xx (it is possible- but i think you want to look at volumes also) GLD chart ... update ....that big volume on the fall, does not support the interpretation that the C-wave is done yet GDX, gold shares ... update ...GDX doesnt look much better, but at least yesterday's candle was white. i reckon GLD and GDX will go up and fill the gap down, and may then retest the lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silverharp Posted January 8, 2007 Report Share Posted January 8, 2007 A couple of writers who use EW seem to be suggesting $550 as a possible target for jan, before rising from that point. Interesting that Puplava reckons that there will be a deflation scare in the first 1/2 of the year which would hammer commodities and gold. Does anyone out there ho uses EW concur that there is "C" correction on going or close at hand and that 550-570 is a reasonable number? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 9, 2007 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2007 An E-wave chart from a private bank very similar to my own count, but i reckon it needs to retest the recent low, and maybe go a touch under $600. so we may not be there just yet. as you may know, i think oil looks attractive relative gold, so i am looking for coal and oil service stock opportunities just now. = = Their Comment: The sharp sell off by Comex Gold over the past three trading sessions provides the potential for a more bullish scenario than previously considered. The rally from the 4th October 2006 low shows a completed five pattern which has now been followed by a 3 wave correction (ABC). It has possibly completed wave c of wave 2 now that it is in the typical 50% to 62% retracement zone ($598.93 to $609.75). In this event wave 3 should take the Gold price to a minimum of $753.87 if not higher. There is a barrier to overcome at 697 which is where wave 3 is equal to wave 1 and is the 78.6% retracement from the May 2006 high to the October 2006 low. Only two consecutive daily lower closes below 583.52 would negate this potentially bullish scenario! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harvipark Posted January 19, 2007 Report Share Posted January 19, 2007 Bullish article on Gold from Moneyweek http://www.moneyweek.com/file/24067/gold-r...ning-point.html also http://www.moneyweek.com/file/24291/why-yo...-your-gold.html (Subscription required for this one) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooki Posted January 20, 2007 Report Share Posted January 20, 2007 Found this article written today, on LewRockwell.com - a bit of useful history for any novice investors here: The Federal War on Gold by Jacob G Hornberger. An excellent account of the rise of paper money in the US, starting with Abraham Lincoln's legal tender law in 1862, whereby loans that, in the past were required to be paid back in gold/silver coin, could now be repaid in promissory notes. The apparent reason for this was to inflate away the war debt accumulated during the American Civil War. It also includes a good explanation of Roosevelt's Executive Order 6102 of 1933 which prohibited the “hoarding” of gold by U.S. citizens. Americans were required to turn their gold holdings over to the federal government at the prevailing price of $20.67 per ounce. The legality of this was taken to the supreme court and in an act of breathtaking cynicism: The gold-clause cases did reach the Supreme Court. Unfortunately, a majority of the Court declared the nullification of the gold clauses in private contracts to be a constitutional exercise of the president’s power. While it declared the nullification of gold clauses in government notes to be unconstitutional, the Court also held, in a twisted form of logic, that the holders of government debt had suffered no damage because gold was then illegal to own anyway.ie: payment of debts to private individuals could not be covered by payment in gold, but the governments could force it's debts to be paid in gold. The author's bottom line is: Is there a possibility, however, that federal officials could confiscate gold again and make it illegal to own it? You bet your bottom gold dollar there is. For one thing, the Trading with the Enemy Act is still on the books and is still being used as the basis for presidential decrees. For another, ever since the Roosevelt administration, federal officials, assisted by the Federal Reserve, have never desisted from issuing ever-growing quantities of paper money, an inflationary process that has ravaged people’s savings. Finally, federal officials hate gold because its rising price in the face of inflation provides a public and an easily readable market message to the citizenry that government officials are destroying the currency. Can't say I know enough about this to say whether this is paranoia or realism - any comments? TLM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 21, 2007 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2007 I missed posting this here... I'm bullish and close to fully invested in gold shares (and some other resource plays.) A jump thru $640 or so will get us out the triangle area, and into a possible sharp move upwards to $700 & higher. That sharp upwards move may have started on friday- but friday moves can be suspicious. But this move in gold to $700, $800 or whatever, which may last some months, is something to sell into- not in a hurry, not immediately, but once the market gets excited, and the papers are full of bullish headlines about gold (like they were last May.) if oil lags gold, and oil shares get cheaper in relation to oil, then: I will probably be looking to redeploy capital from a screaming-upwards gold share market into a quieter oil market- but we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harvipark Posted January 23, 2007 Report Share Posted January 23, 2007 I missed posting this here... I'm bullish and close to fully invested in gold shares (and some other resource plays.) A jump thru $640 or so will get us out the triangle area, and into a possible sharp move upwards to $700 & higher. That sharp upwards move may have started on friday- but friday moves can be suspicious. But this move in gold to $700, $800 or whatever, which may last some months, is something to sell into- not in a hurry, not immediately, but once the market gets excited, and the papers are full of bullish headlines about gold (like they were last May.) if oil lags gold, and oil shares get cheaper in relation to oil, then: I will probably be looking to redeploy capital from a screaming-upwards gold share market into a quieter oil market- but we shall see Gold looking very strong and we have moved through $640. Now at $645 Ciould this be the start of the next leg up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 24, 2007 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2007 Updated Elliott wave interpretation - which is very bullish: Price Patterns - The price pattern being played out by Gold since the May 06 highs is that of a symmetrical triangle, which usually breaks in favour of the preceding trend which in this case is higher. Conclusion - Gold is looking very bullish as it is about to break out of the symmetrical triangle pattern, with other supporting analysis suggesting this to be imminent. The up trend is likely to carry gold beyond the previous high set in May 06, upwards and onwards towards to 847 and eventually to over 900, targeting 920 this year ! Buy Trigger - The two key buy triggers for Gold are 636 and 658. With gold at 636, it is on the verge of confirming a break of the first trigger. The best position would be a rolling spot contract. Or longer term investors can hold gold directly at bullionvault.com Target - A break above 658 would target 847. source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article243.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chas and dave Posted January 25, 2007 Report Share Posted January 25, 2007 Hopefully this is of longer term interest to gold nutters. http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=1183 The Daily Resource 1/24/07: By Doug Hornig January 24, 2007 'From a Monday press release put out by metals dealer Blanchard and Co.: “After months of inquiries and a hotly debated, in-depth position paper by its economic research unit, Blanchard and Company has learned that the International Monetary Fund has adopted a landmark accounting change to the way Central Banks account for their gold loans, giving this sector of the commodities market more transparency than it has ever had, the precious metals market leader announced today. “ ‘This is a huge step forward for the precious metals market and a major victory for the gold market investor,’ said Blanchard Chairman and CEO Donald W. Doyle, Jr. ‘Not since the Washington Agreement on gold in 1999 and the legalization of gold ownership for Chinese citizens in 2004 has there been such an important event in the advancement of the gold market.’ -- -- GATA’s Bill Murphy, writing on LemetropoléCafe.com, was quick to react: “Without a doubt, should the central banks reveal the amount of gold they have loaned out, this will rock the gold market like nothing else in its history. IMO the price could double in a very short period of time, as market participants begin to understand THE GOLD IS GONE. Now, we wait and see if this comes to pass.” ########## then a coupe ofpdfs rom IMF discussing this during 2006 Title: Issues Paper (RESTEG) #11, Treatment of Gold Swaps and Gold Deposits (Loans), Prepared by Hidetoshi Takeda, April 2006 - Reserve Assets Technical Expert Group (RESTEG) undefined III. POSSIBLE TREATMENTS 13. The new Manual should include a clearer description of the treatments of gold swaps and gold deposits/loans by introducing relevant text already available in the Guidelines. 14. Regarding the statistical treatment of gold swaps, its treatment should be consistent with that of other reverse transactions, as presented in paragraph 7 above. Thus, swapped gold should be excluded from both reserve assets and IIP (demonetization). This is a logical consequence, and overstating of reserve assets can be avoided. On the other hand, this results in a decrease in the financial assets of the monetary authorities.15. Regarding the statistical treatment of gold deposits/loans, keeping the status quo is suggested. That is, if the deposited/loaned gold is available upon demand to the monetary authorities, it can be included in reserve assets as monetary gold (paragraph 99 of the Guidelines). However, if the gold is not available upon demand, it should be removed from reserve assets, and also from IIP (demonetization). Then http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/bop/pdf/resout11.pdf IMF COMMITTEE ON BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS RESERVE ASSETS TECHNICAL EXPERT GROUP (RESTEG) ___________________________________________________________________________ OUTCOME PAPER (RESTEG) # 11 TREATMENT OF GOLD SWAPS AND GOLD DEPOSITS (LOANS) Prepared by Hidetoshi Takeda, IMF Statistics Department July 2006 The views expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) only, and the presence of it, or of links to it, on the IMF website does not imply that the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management endorses or shares the views expressed in the papers. 2 RESERVE ASSETS TECHNICAL EXPERT GROUP (RESTEG) OUTCOME PAPER (RESTEG) #11 (1) Topic: Treatment of Gold Swaps and Gold Deposits (2) Issues: See RESTEG Issues Paper #11 (3) Outcome of the Discussions: (i) RESTEG agreed to include a clearer description of the treatment of gold swaps and gold deposits/loans drawing as appropriate on the relevant text in the Guidelines. (ii) RESTEG considered that the statistical treatment of gold swaps and gold deposits needed to be addressed from the viewpoint of whether allocated or unallocated gold was involved. (iii) For instance, one member noted that treatment of gold deposits set out in paragraphs 98 and 99 of the Guidelines needed to be reviewed, as treatments differ depending on whether unallocated gold and allocated gold is involved. (iv) RESTEG agreed that the statistical treatment of gold deposits/loans of allocated gold should be status quo. That is, if the deposited/loaned gold is available upon demand to the monetary authorities, it can be included in reserve assets as monetary gold (paragraph 99 of the Guidelines). However, if the gold is not available upon demand, it should be removed from reserve assets, and also from IIP (demonetization). (v) The meeting was informed that gold swaps primarily involve unallocated gold. (4) Rejected Alternatives: None. (5) Actions: It was agreed that the secretariat would investigate further. The work would include appropriate bilateral discussions to discover practices on gold swaps and deposits/loans among central banks, especially those via unallocated gold, and prepare proposals on their statistical treatments for RESTEG discussion through correspondence prior to IMF Committee on Balance of Payments Statistics (BOPCOM) meeting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 25, 2007 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2007 thnx for that. a big step, perhaps. let's see what the market impact is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubble Pricker Posted January 25, 2007 Report Share Posted January 25, 2007 gold looks like it's in breakout mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 25, 2007 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2007 looks like money is pouring into gold from all currencies, as gold breaks out above $650 let's see if some of these laggards juniors (including some tax plays) will start to move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harvipark Posted January 25, 2007 Report Share Posted January 25, 2007 $652 as i type Has this now broken through a resistance point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chas and dave Posted January 25, 2007 Report Share Posted January 25, 2007 GOLDEN CHINA RESOURCES CORP responding well down another 4.17% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubble Pricker Posted January 25, 2007 Report Share Posted January 25, 2007 of course one of my holdings. I don't know how you do it Bubb, my gold juniors are all disappointing, with CGT the only exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 26, 2007 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2007 someone has suggested Avocet... chart the Weekly chart looks excellent! Cud be a good buy here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malco Posted January 31, 2007 Report Share Posted January 31, 2007 This might be the beginning of another run in gold. What especially interests me is that the oil price has fallen but the gold price has gone up just the same. Any ideas on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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