drbubb Posted September 1, 2023 Author Report Share Posted September 1, 2023 SELLING WINDOW AHEAD? QQQ Below: 2023: I have been waiting for this Seasonal opportuniity. At the beginning of 2023 I said: "STOCKS: BULLISH Set-up for 2023.." (SPX: 3,999, now 12.7% higher at 4,508. Ytd, QQQ is up 42.1% from 266 to 378.) Along the way, I resisted - rightly, it turns out - the temptation to get Bearish. Because I thought stocks could hold uo until late AUG. We are now in the Timeframe where it could make sense to Sell. Ideally, the QQQ might continue to Rally to 400 or so. Current level is 378. So that would be perhaps 6% higher. It may not get that far, so STAY ALERT NOW. (Given that PSEI is well off its 2023 high of 7,138, Fri's close of 6,181 was -13.5% off that level. It may make sense to hedge PSEI with QQQ or SPY puts since the downside in the US indices appears much bigger in a global stock market slide, if we see that.) - from a post on my Viber market chat, 9.1.2023 VIX at 13.50 : 2023: 10d: VIX at 13.50 suggests the level of complacency is very high. And you will see level like that when SPX is putting in a Top IWM / Russell-2000 vs. SPX, TLT/ Bonds ... 2000: 2009: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 3, 2023 Author Report Share Posted September 3, 2023 F/T CYCLICAL INDICATOR - Identifying Highs (H). Next in Jan'24? F/Y w/VIX: VIX-etc: '23: 10d: (VIX: 13.75, FAZ: 11.37, TZA: 19.87 at 2.23.24) 13.09 ( 12.73 to 34.88): R-22.15 pts, 1.6%, 9.6.23 F-T: FZA: 17.71 (15.14 to 31.74), TZA: 25.07 (21.98 to 47.87) SPX: 9.01.23: 4,516 (R: 3,492 to 4,607: +1,115 pts); 92% == LOOKING BACK - from prior page... The melt-up is underway. Gold & silver poised for some catch-up. My 2021 targets are gold $2500, silver $45-$50, GDX $60, GDXJ $100, SIL $75 & SILJ $35. Big upside ahead." > https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian : DanPopescu: MacroAlf: Kobeissi: Updated: Gold:$1980, GLD:$184 (/10.76), UGL:$64, AGQ:$27, SLV:$21, GDX:$30.6 ETC: STOCKS: BULLISH Set-up for 2023. update: SPX: 3,999 (12 mo: 3,492-4,665) EARLY 2023 SET-UP: "Bullish set-up now for US stocks: Possible Reverse Head-and-Shoulders, with downtrend about to break. Bearish sentiment, with BIG CASH on the sidelines" - Comment, at 1.13.23 === Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 3, 2023 Author Report Share Posted September 3, 2023 PSEI may be have made a Cyclical Low (about 6,142) Compare: SPX: 4,516, UKX: 7,465 1.65x, PSEI: 6,181 1.37x PSEC-to SPX ratio: 6,181 / 4,516 =r-1.37x - New Low! "My Bearish friends may Not agree with this assessment, but I think it is possible that we have seen an important Cyclical LOW in PSEI this past week near 6,150 ( a little below the "about 6,200" support level, that I had identified.). A break of the trend line I show above may still happen. But if we get a good rally from here, it may bring a multi-week or eve multi-month Rally. Possibly driven by slow inflation, and some decline in US and PHL interest rates." - From my Markets Chat on Viber Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 3, 2023 Author Report Share Posted September 3, 2023 ANOTHER VIEW: Philippine Stocks Wipe Out $20 Billion in Value as Growth Slows > https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-01/philippine-stocks-wipe-out-20-billion-in-value-as-growth-slows#xj4y7vzkg (from Viber chat): Every start of the year, and I believe without fail, local stock analysts have habitually forecasted new PSEI record highs. And yet in early 2018, my forecast was a “multi-year bear market” for PSEI (see screen shot below). And true enough, since that forecast, PSEI peaked and never made any new record highs. On the contrary, it had proceeded to more lows from the high of February 2018. That was in line with the rolling over from a bullish global picture (which started in 1982) into a more challenging environment leading to a bearish 2020 globally as COVID gripped the world starting Nov. 2019. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 7, 2023 Author Report Share Posted September 7, 2023 SHOCKING: a $2 Trillion deficit. Ruinous to the US economy and markets probably. RECESSION Ahead? THIS is a good interview. Steph says so much of value in relatively few words - a Must Listen : Stephanie Pomboy: The Fed ‘Manufactured Data’ Ignores The Buried American Workers https://rumble.com/v3fd482-stephanie-pomboy-the-fed-manufactured-data-ignores-the-buried-american-work.html She says: "We are at a Turning point, about to Tip over into Recession." "Big Question is : Why does the Fed rely on flawed data?" "The cure for ALL of this, is to go back to the policies of Trump... High inflation for over regulation at rising oil.." Is NOT EASY to fix, with Biden's policies in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 8, 2023 Author Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 Ideal SELLING WINDOW? Might have to wait until Jan. This trader points out that the average Season pattern shows: "Weakness from late Sept. into mid Oct, then a strong rally into year end" Bad News For Bears? Market Technicals are Very Bullish / Sven Henrich He does have one crash scenario he discusses at 59min "Corrective case" is for a pullback in Sep-Oct to SPX-4200 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 17, 2023 Author Report Share Posted September 17, 2023 BEAR WEDGE. "70% probability of a slide". Gareth Soloway: This Market Is On The ‘Verge Of Breaking Out’ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qQOiBYon1U Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 17, 2023 Author Report Share Posted September 17, 2023 SPX : 4,450, -54.78, -1.22%. Could easily fall to mid-line, or 4300+ support, or maybe 4,200. This could be the week the correction becomes more apparent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 21, 2023 Author Report Share Posted September 21, 2023 KILL RATIO : Hit 48-50x "Peaking Zone"? Last: 4,402 / 93.09 = R-47.29x SPX: 4402 == Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 3, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 3, 2023 GLD: last: 169.65 ($1,824) - 1.80, -1.05% "GLD / Gold has broken one "support" MA after another. Now it is deeply oversold and down to /near an important one, the 987d/ 200week MA." "THE RSI shows how over sold Gold is" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 3, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 3, 2023 SPY: Last: 421.59 -5.72. -1.34%, DayL: 420.18. VIX: 19.78. H: 20.48 I redrew the SPY chart. Not as satisfying, since the channel breaks on the Upside. But the 420 level is obviously important. That is also the approx. Level of the 200d MA (419.2?, rising less than 0.2 per day) SPY vs PSEI PSEC/ SPX ratio: 11/06: 6,078/4,366 =1.39x- UKX (7,418) 10/03: 6,306/4,229 =1.49x-vs 1.37 Low above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 4, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2023 Long Bond may be at/ near the very long term bottom TLT /Treasuries, Long Term : 85.06. (R: 84.885 to 109.68), TYX: 49.37, 4.94%, (R: 34.13 to 49.50) === Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted November 7, 2023 Report Share Posted November 7, 2023 Update: Gold: $1,965 / GLD: 181.50 = Ratio 10.82 (2000/ 10.82= $184.84) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted November 7, 2023 Report Share Posted November 7, 2023 Switch Lanes? To PSEI? PSEI is now "too cheap" relative to SPX it seems. So switch from SPX to PSEI maybe/ Also BSP has done a good job of protecting the PHP SPY vs PSEI PSEC/ SPX ratio: 11/06: 6,078/4,366 =1.39x- UKX (7,418) 10/03: 6,306/4,229 =1.49x-vs 1.37 Low above Edited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 SPX vs. IWM (169.11)/4415.=3.83%. UKX (7,361), Psei (6,162 139.6%) RATIO: PSEI (6,162) / SPX (4,415)= 139.6% Jeremy GRANTHAM : Doesn’t expect the bottom to be in until there is a major price capitulation and stocks become a toxic asset in most investors’ minds. Once that happens, when truly bargain prices abound but no one wants to jump back into stocks, THAT will be the time to hold your nose & buy. ... Crediting the work of John Hussman, Grantham calculates the stock market is at nosebleed levels of over-valuation. He can easily make the case why the market should correct by 50% or more from here, though that isn’t his base case prediction. But he’s waiting for the S&P to drop below 3,000 before he starts getting interesting in buying anything. If it falls below 2,000, he’ll be buying aggressively. ( US ) Housing is a dead man walking at this point. It’s all about math. Prices will come down with these higher rates, and we can see that already happening in countries with shorter duration mortgages than the US (e.g., Scandinavia, the UK). Grantham calculates this housing market bubble reached higher extremes than the 2007 one…and is concurrent with a vastly higher stock market bubble than ever before in history. He sees the Russell 2000 (IWM) as the most vulnerable part of the US stock market. It has a high density of “zombie” companies, 40% of the stocks in the index don’t have positive earnings, the debt/equity ratio of this index is far worse than the S&P or the NASDAQ, and the total debt levels are at record highs. Its performance has been pretty disappointing over the past 5 years, showing it is already in trouble — it’s down 18% over its high from a year and a half ago, despite inflation being a lot higher. > https://adamtaggart.substack.com/p/waitwhat-adam-left-wealthion?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted November 12, 2023 Report Share Posted November 12, 2023 MORE - Q&A for Grantham Where should investors consider putting their money now? Grantham sees the biggest value right now in stock markets outside of the US. They have underperformed the US stock market for a good while (and certainly now). Japan and the U.K./Europe look very affordable right now. ... He sees more risk and volatility in developing markets though those, too, look “investable” to him at current prices. If you had to hold one of these assets — gold, bitcoin or cash— for the next 10 years, which would you choose? Gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted December 10, 2023 Report Share Posted December 10, 2023 JAN 2024 TARGET : SPY: $480-500, Last: $460.20 at 12/08/23 ATM Puts: Jan'25: $25.00, $480p Now: 31.54 / Apr'24: $12.50, $480p Now: 23.08., $460: 12.37 VIX:. last: 12.35 / Calc., Vol. (12.5%) x $480 x 40%): 24.00, 3mos.20%: 12.00 IWM, Last: 186.80, Target; $210, +/- $10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted December 20, 2023 Report Share Posted December 20, 2023 PSEI vs UKX, etc: 6545 / 7638 = 85.7%. / tlt-$98.89, r66.2, HSI (16,678) == Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 The next move in TLT may be the major driver for what happens to global stock indices Chart / TLT (94.82 -1.70) : UKX (7,452, r-78.6x), PSEI (6,573, r-69.3x) / TLT (94.82) : UKX (7,452, r-78.6x), PSEI (6,573, r-69.3x) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 US stocks REALLY CLOSE to SPY-$480 Target .. High so far was Monday ($478.60) JAN 2024 TARGET HIT! : from $460.20 on 12/08/23 ATM Put strike: Target: 12.08: 01.16: ==== $480?: $460: $475: Jan'25 480P: $25.00, 31.54: 24.65: Apr'24 480P: $12.50, 23.08: 12.12: ==== $460P: ???? $12.37: $6.10: ========== VIX : xx.xx: 14.57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted February 13 Report Share Posted February 13 I suggested a TOP is coming... on 02.04.24 This happened... 10d: IWM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted February 18 Report Share Posted February 18 SPY-vs-HSI: 499.51, 16,340=3.06% (1% @2/'19), Psei-6873, UKX-7712 2/15/19: 277.37 / 27,901 = 0.99% RATIO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted February 20 Report Share Posted February 20 GOLD CFTC data supports Rally potential : Highest Price yet, for good set-up GLD/ Gold. Fri. 2.17.24: Last: $186.34 = $2,015 (10.81x) GOLD % corrections, getting smaller and smaller : 03.08.22: $193.30 > 11.03.22: $150.57: $43, -22.1% 05.04.23: $191.36 > 10.05.23: $168.30: $23, -12.0% 12.28.23: $192.89 > 02.13.24: $183.78: $ 9., - 4.7% ====== HK Gold / HK2840: Last: HK$1,462 +2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted February 24 Report Share Posted February 24 A near perfect set-up for Gold, a long term Cup&Handle. But the breakout is not confirmed until Gold clear $2,070. After $2,070, Wadsworth sees "Many hundreds of Dollars of price rise" in Gold. Gold shares are also super cheap, but typically outperform fro short periods like a year or so. GDX ($26.66) /Gold stocks, vs. UGL ($61.28) and RGLD ($107); FNV ($108); GLD ($188.62) Time : v.UGL: GLD, pct.: GDX, pct. : GDXJ, pct.: JNUG, pct. : Rgld, Mult.: 02.23: 61.28: 188.6, 3.1x: 26.66, 43.5% 32.32, 53%: 24.05, 39%: 106.8, 1.74x Ye’23: 63.87: 191.2, 3.0x: 31.01, 48.6% 37.91, 59%: 33.89, 53%: 121.0, 1.89x Ye’22: 55.27: 169.6, 3.1x: 28.66, 51.9% 35.65, 65%: 36.17, 65%: 112.7, 2.04x Ye’21: 59.81: 171.0, 2.9x: 32.03, 53.6%: 41.93, 70%: 64.13, 1.07x 105.2 1.76x Ye’20 68.20: 178.4, 2.6x: 36.02, 52.8%: 54.24, 80%: 120.6, 1.77x 106.4 1.56x ==== GDX-etc, since 2020: 26.66/ 61.28= 43.5% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted February 24 Report Share Posted February 24 GLD -10d: 6mo: $188.62 GLD: 6mo: GDX : 6mo: $26.66 GDX.v.UGL >mid'15: oct'17: GDX-$26.66 /UGL-$61.28= 43.5% /TLT-$93.9= 28.4% GDX.v.GLD >mid'15: oct'17: GDX-$26.66 /GLD-$188.6= 14.1% /TLT-$93.9= 28.4% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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