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PRECIOUS Decade: Metals, Stocks & the Long View


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David Hunter@DaveHcontrarian: 15hrs ago (july 14th, 2021)
"The melt-up is underway. Gold & silver poised for some catch-up.

My 2021 targets are gold $2500, silver $45-$50, GDX $60, GDXJ $100, SIL $75 & SILJ $35. Big upside ahead."

> https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian : DanPopescu :

NENNER's CYCLES of WAR and GOLD

+ Up to 1/3 of our population may die in the next war !

+ Gold cycle is up until 2027. Resistance is $2500, and then as high as $40K!

+ "Gold's short term cycle turned up this week" (yesterday, from when he said it)

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Gold's L.T. Cup & Handle : Explanations: Handle should end in top 1/3 or upper 1/2

Third of Global Population Killed in Next War Cycle – Charles Nenner

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Some good CYCLES work here, including the mining clock

Bob Thompson: The Case for the Next Leg in the Bull Market

Tom welcomes a new guest, Bob Thompson, to the program. Bob is Senior Portfolio Manager at Thompson Investment Partners of Raymond James Ltd.

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  • 3 weeks later...

INDU / DowJones Ave. ...  2019: 1yr: Ytd: 10d / Last: 30,968, R: 29,653- 36,953 ++ spy: iwm: tlt: gdx: xle:

/ Vs.18,740 Rise (100%). At: 29,653 +11,440 (61.0%), At: 29,784 (61.8%), At: 27,583 (50%), At: 25,372 (38.2%)

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INDU / Dow Jones Indu. Average ... since 1970-Mo: v2: 1985: 2000 / Last: 30,967.82, yrL: 29,653.29 to 36,952.65

1970.v2

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HUNTER is sticking to his Guns.  "Melt-up coming"

He is quiet...  "Gone to the Beach"

The Market Melt Up Will Turn To A GLOBAL BUST In 2023 | David Hunter

"Around the World, plenty of signs the Economy is LABORING"

"In the US, we may be already a recession."

"I was alone... but now everyone has adopted my view about the Crash."

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  • 4 weeks later...

"Powell may not yet understand how WEAK things are.  By Sept., he will! " 

Collapsing Economy Forces the Fed to Pivot; Higher Gold & Silver Prices | David Hunter   >

===

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

UGL has Opened up a BIG GAP to the upside of GDX... once again, like in Q2.2020

GDX ($27.22) vs. UGL ($55.72), 2x Gold .... update: Falling Ratio: 48.9%

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Ratio: GDX ($27.22) / UGL ($55.72) = 48.9%. "Normal Range" is 50-60%

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==

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  • 3 weeks later...

TNX - 10yr TBond rate: 30.35 = 3.035% .. 5yr:

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5yr:

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I think the dollar is putting in a double top & poised to roll over. The 10yr yield is also poised to rollover & head for 2%.Lower USD & rates will help propel gold,silver & miners to much higher levels. Gold to $3000,silver to $50,GDX to $65,GDXJ to $100,SIL to $75 & SILJ to 35
 
Many signs we're in recession w/economy continuing to decelerate.Composite PMIs at 45,housing rolling over fast,retail is weak,labor conditions are deteriorating.Overseas is even worse.And inflation is rolling over & likely will surprise on the downside.Fed will pause this fall.
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"BONDS: Low coming in Q2-2022?"

Prediction is Working... so far.

YTD:  TLT LOW for this year (so far) was $108.12 on 6.16.22 / Last: $113.62 +0.85

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TLT-All :

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Excellent discussion here on Debt Markets, and Fed Actions

He says: "Fed will destroy its credibility if it moves from a 2% target to 4% target"

Alfonso Peccatiello: Inflation is Destroying the Fed's Credibility

Direction ahead is NEGATIVE with a lag of several months.

The money isn't there to spend... and the Jobs market will be weak

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HARD LANDING AHEAD?
Direction ahead is NEGATIVE with a lag of several months.
The money isn't there to spend... and the Jobs market will be weak.   The FED PUT from stocks will require a bigger drop in stocks than in the past.   The way that a Fed Pivot might happen quicker would be thru a drop in Jobs and the economy.

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Nenner Cycles

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Stocks in Downtrend for months to come

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Bond Low in place

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Gold: mid-Aug Low?

Inflation Coming Down for Now - Charles Nenner

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  • 3 weeks later...

MARKETS LOOKING BAD - some comments from the US Markets Viber Chat on 2022 US Wealth destruction

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+ The odds for a 100 basis point rate hike jumped more than 20% after the consumer price index showed an increase from July. With hopes of a “Fed pivot” firmly dashed, the S&P 500 Index tumbled as much as 3.2%.
... on Tuesday, Nomura economists changed their forecast for the Fed’s September meeting from a 75 to 100 basis points, writing that “a more aggressive path of interest rate hikes will be needed to combat increasingly entrenched inflation.”
(News Excerpt)

+ it looks the only way to combat inflation is to crash the economy. (SM)

+ I think US Wealth is crashing already!  But the Biden regime's (extensive) use of borrowed printed money has meant that DEMAND DESTRUCTION is the only way left to fight inflation.  I believe that we have already seen the biggest DROP in personal wealth (in terms of Trillions lost) for Americans.  2022 has brought the biggest loss in US History: Both Bond and Stock markets have destroyed wealth this year.  Property wealth is also sliding now.. (DB)

+ yes and next is Europe ,where things are even worse ,although they don t admit it yet  (SM)

+ One wonders of Elite groups with political influence are Pushing the Fed TOO FAR, so they can create asset markets with Massive discounts, so they can redeploy their own wealth from Cash to Stocks and Property when prices are even cheaper

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REDRAWING the Long Term Bond chart

TLT / LT Treasuries: All / Last: 107.67, yrL: 106.24  (yesterday)

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CYCLICAL LOW... For Stocks and Gold in Spring 2023?

Biggest Wealth loss in History (in Trillions) has been 2023

TLT vs. SPY, QQQ ... from 2020: YTD: 107.67 (106.24), 393.10 (362.17), qqq: 293.70 (269.28)

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CYCLICAL Lows in Stocks and Gold in Spring 2023? 

Gary Savage: The Dollar Will Enter Panic Mode 

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GOOD Commentary on Gold and its connection to the "US dollar Hegemony" 

Butler expects only ONE more Big rate increase.  After that, he sees a strong rise in Gold prices.  

$50,000 gold price, how and when? - John Butler       :

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

LARRY WILLIAMS Charts - Show the Value of Trader Reports in confirming HIGHS and LOWS

"When the Commercials get Net LONG, you had better get Long Gold!"

#1: GOLD, History From ???, shows Commercial Hedgers behave at Gold Lows

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#2: GOLD, from 2016.  "almost there" at Buy sign, based on Comm'l Holdings

"Greatest long position (for Commercials) since 2019"

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#3: SILVER, from 2016 - we are already IN a Buying Window

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( Palisades Gold interview follows )

Larry Williams: Inflation Cycles have Topped for Now

SLV / Silver .... All: 5yr: 2yr: Ytd: 10d / $17.36, up xx%, from YrL, $16.19

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Just "short-covering"?  Or MORE?  SPY... 370.53 +7.15, +1.97% Vol. 110.8 Million,

SPY/ SP500 ... ALL: 10yrL: 5yr: Ytd: 10d/ 9.25.22: 370.53.  Day L: 362.60, +2.19%, Yr.L: 360.87, +2.68%

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Ytd: 10d/ 9.25.22: 370.53.  Day L: 362.60, +2.19%, Tue.L: 360.87,  Yr.L: 360.87, +2.68%

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Interesting Day!  The reversal Up from Day's L > Close was: 7.93 pts., +2.19%

I note that the LOW was almost the same as the 200wk ($359) / 987d. MA ($356).

The 200wk Moving Ave. is identified many important Lows! 10yr. chart.

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At 110M, the volume is above the usual daily average of about 75 Million.

Wed's Up Move NEEDS FOLLOW THROUGH! to be meaningful

Still hoping that SPY would hold those LOWS of Tue. Near $360.  Or even the 987d MA near $356 (rising).   But it may not.  Next step down might be to $320 - Ugh!

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David Hunter@DaveHcontrarian
22hr ago
In 2008 ex-Goldman Chair Hank Paulson wrongly listened to  Wall St & let Lehman fail & triggered the financial crisis. Now,Powell is listening to Bill Dudley,ex-Goldman economist,who is saying the market needs to go much lower to get inflation down.This will cause a global bust.      
Sep 28 - earlier Tweet:
Rarely do we see such groupthink from policymakers around the world.Usually there are counter views but now all Fed governors,other CBs,even the IMF are hyperfocused on inflation & ignoring other risks despite deflation being a greater risk.Hopefully BOE reverses the groupthink.

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The problem for Stocks is Weak Bonds!

If TLT falls <$100, Stocks will likely break Key support. YTD: 3m: 10d: qqq: 269.10 / tlt: 100.99=2.66x, spy: 363

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SPY - $360: Such a Key Level !

Charts: All: 10yr: 5yr: 3yr: Ytd: 10d / Last: $362.79 -10.41, -2.8%  dayL: 360.94, 987d.MA: $357

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All: 10yr: 5yr: 3yr: Ytd: 10d / Last: $362.79

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QQQ / Invesco QQQ Trust, is Also ON KEY SUPPORT

Charts: All: 10yr: 5yr: 3yr: Ytd: 10d / Last: $269.10 -10.66, -3.8%  dayL: 267.10, 987d.MA: $270

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x

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TLT / Tbonds etf..   ALL:

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Ratio: 360 / 100 = 3.60%. Bonds are cheaper than Stocks (SPY)

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  • 3 weeks later...

WE NEED Local communities that can TRADE with each other

REDUCE your reliance on Supply chains controlled by unreliable governments

Why the Relationship Between Debt, Gold and Real Estate is Important: Russell Gray

NO WAY are we going to get a Stock Rally from here like we got in 2020. 

Why?  Because the SMART MOVE now is to swap from (expensive) stocks to (cheap) Bonds. 

Check out the RATIO of SPX-to-TLT (recent 41.24) was exactly 3X the 13.78 ratio of the 2020 Low..  

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As Russell Gray says;  People will not access the Bond market, "they will have to sell shares"

Actually, his idea towards the end, about "recharacterizing Real Estate equity into GOLD" is fascinating and seems right.  I put a bunch of money into USD cash last year and left it there.  Moving into Gold and Silver NOW might make great sense

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10 YEARS may be Too Short... for a Long cycle Peak

PHM-vs. HGX, TLT... since Apr.2021: 2020: 2002: All: 10yr: 5yr: Ytd: 10d /

Last: $39.23, $372, $97.5

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since 2020: Apr.2021: 2002: All: 10yr: 5yr: Ytd: 10d /

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2002: All: 10yr: 5yr: Ytd: 10d /

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The US Cycle... we have only had about 10 yrs up from the 2011 low.  Normally it is about 14 years. 

Could there be a last Gasp ahead

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GOLD's BOTTOMING AREA ?

Have SLV, GDX made a Low already? ... Late October 2022 Update

UGL (2x Gold) shows... Gold and Gold stocks are challenging the Downtrend.           

UGL, vs. GDX, SLV .. 2016: Ytd: 10d : $45.69, $24.72, 54.1%), $17.74, 38.8% (gold: $1645/ gld: $153.16 =10.74)

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Since 2016:

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  • 2 weeks later...

GLD ... YTD : $164.56 = US$1.770 per ounce.  (R: 10.76 x)

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OFF A MAJOR LOW??

GLD ... Log : $165

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