romans holiday Posted July 1, 2009 Report Share Posted July 1, 2009 I recall a cwr podcast from earlier this year where you were considering advising a friend to buy gold with his 15k GBP savings. You mentioned that usually this wasnt a good idea when gold was breaking to new highs in GBP but that the future of the UK/Sterling were so bleak that it made sense in this case. Does this advice still hold in your opinion? Or has new information shaped your view to something different. Also with regard to your recent moneyweek article would you really seek the exit in gold if we got below £500? I was pretty surprised at that. I had imagined £450-500 gold would be a buy with both hands situation. Thanks for the great work. Cheers http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/why-i...llar-14924.aspx Just read the article you were referring to [above]. I think too much is being made of the previous spike in gold and the supposed present down trend as measured by the pound. Gold did not first spike so much against the pound as the pound first weakened against gold... and then bounced back to its former strength. This happened concurrently in many other currencies. I remember finally convincing my brother in law to buy gold with kiwi dollars. Unfortunately, he bought when the kiwi was at 50 [against the US, now it has bounced back to 65]. He bought for $2000 an ounce and now it is at around $1500 an ounce.... oh well, he is wealthy without debt and it is his "insurance". My point is that the spike and subsequent decline should be considered a currency anomaly that was caused by the period of forced liquidation [though we could see another such "anomaly" if we see the safety trade again]. There is no trend down, rather the anomaly has returned to normal. Such volatile currencies can not provide a proper frame of reference. It is best perhaps to look at the dollar price of gold if you are looking for a trend. And then it would be best to buy dollars now [agree with CC here] if you are planning to buy gold in the future on a dip. Swapping some pounds for dollars looks like a good trade to me. Looking at the dollar price of gold, I think many are being far too bearish here. Gold is performing well and has been above 900 for quite a period of time. Notice the 200mda is moving up. imo QE and currency concerns have put a floor under it at around 900. That said, I do not think we will see it break above 1000 for some time yet and will rather see it remain relatively stable and tracking sideways between 900 and 1000. imo the best policy is to accumulate a good position in gold and consider it a currency. Though we might see no fireworks this year, at some time it could well go parabolic as the dollar finally weakens. This would be the catalyst to set off a self-reinforcing parabolic process where investors may rush into gold in the attempt to preserve capital. Personally, if I did not have a solid position already built, I would be buying gold now. As I do already have a good position, I feel I can afford to wait in dollars for now just in case a bargain buy comes along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aardvark Posted July 1, 2009 Report Share Posted July 1, 2009 Nice to see some gold commentry priced in GBP for a change, on seeking alpha... http://seekingalpha.com/article/146209-gol...-remains-intact can't really argue with this: 'All that needs to happen for gold to start rallying in sterling terms is for the pound to start falling against the dollar. Given the state of the UK economy, this really isn’t that difficult to imagine.' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fexx Posted July 1, 2009 Report Share Posted July 1, 2009 Hmm. Too much bullish sentiment about still. Great, I thought I was the only one left. http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=115281 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinecu Posted July 1, 2009 Report Share Posted July 1, 2009 Nice analysis here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/146132-no-...cle_lb_articles This chart features the gold to the UDN ratio. The latter is the symbol for PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund, which moves in the exact opposite direction of the USD Index. Since the USD Index is a weighted average of the dollar's currency exchange rates with world's most important currencies, we may use the gold:UDN ratio to estimate the value of gold prices in "other currencies". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted July 1, 2009 Report Share Posted July 1, 2009 Hmm. Too much bullish sentiment about still. http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....ost&p=92510 The inflationists expected POG to go parabolic. The deflationists expected it to collapse. Neither happened, instead POG has been hitting all time highs in most currencies and remaining strong in the strongest of currencies. The reason being is that gold is increasingly being perceived by the market as performing one of the basic functions of money; that of being a store of value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted July 1, 2009 Report Share Posted July 1, 2009 Feels like something different is happening today; pound down + gold/silver up by a greater % than pound down. This feels like the reverse of what's been going on for the last few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted July 1, 2009 Report Share Posted July 1, 2009 Don’t Be Fooled By Gold’s Tired Look By: Rick Ackerman http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1246428000.php Gold futures eased lower yesterday, apparently too tired for the time being to continue treading water. The Comex August contract settled at 927.40, down a little more than one percent on the day. If you’re a long-term investor looking to do some bargain-hunting, however, we’d advise waiting for even better prices, since it looks as though the futures could fall to as low as 899.00 over the next 6-8 days. That would be a back-up-the-truck buying opportunity as far as we’re concerned, since the downside in bullion seems limited for now. The 899.00 target is a “Hidden Pivot” support, and it appears capable of engendering a tradable bounce. Although that number is not yet a lead-pipe cinch to be reached over the near term, it would become an odds-on bet following a two-day close beneath a less important “hidden” support at 924.00. For the record, the absolute worst we could see over the next month or so would be a test of late April’s lows near 882. I like Rick, another gold-buying deflationist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted July 1, 2009 Report Share Posted July 1, 2009 I recall a cwr podcast from earlier this year where you were considering advising a friend to buy gold with his 15k GBP savings. You mentioned that usually this wasnt a good idea when gold was breaking to new highs in GBP but that the future of the UK/Sterling were so bleak that it made sense in this case. Does this advice still hold in your opinion? Or has new information shaped your view to something different. Also with regard to your recent moneyweek article would you really seek the exit in gold if we got below £500? I was pretty surprised at that. I had imagined £450-500 gold would be a buy with both hands situation. Thanks for the great work. Cheers I see £450 as a key level of support and if that is broken I would consider the exit. If it holds it may mark a buy. I think everyone one should own some gold if they don't have any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWIW Posted July 1, 2009 Report Share Posted July 1, 2009 Some more observations...and some pre-flight checks... Candlesticks - check Cup & handle - check Bounce off lower median line - check Highest close in 14 days - check Closes over 38.2% Fib retracement - check Some concerns... Friday is a holiday in US, so tomorrow ppt will probably pull us back down a bit; may be a great time to get some more gold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jinbal Posted July 1, 2009 Report Share Posted July 1, 2009 Some more observations...and some pre-flight checks... Candlesticks - check Cup & handle - check Bounce off lower median line - check Highest close in 14 days - check Closes over 38.2% Fib retracement - check Some concerns... Friday is a holiday in US, so tomorrow ppt will probably pull us back down a bit; may be a great time to get some more gold? thats not a Bullish Engulfing IMO. - the low needs to be below the previous days low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FishingwithJesse Posted July 1, 2009 Report Share Posted July 1, 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FishingwithJesse Posted July 1, 2009 Report Share Posted July 1, 2009 PRICE OBJECT = $71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FishingwithJesse Posted July 1, 2009 Report Share Posted July 1, 2009 PRICE OBJECT = $1240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWIW Posted July 1, 2009 Report Share Posted July 1, 2009 thats not a Bullish Engulfing IMO. - the low needs to be below the previous days low Well 4 out of 5 aint bad....well after having a closer look, yesterday's close was 926.30, today's open was 926. So there you have it 'technically' I am right! So it is 5 out of 5! The fisherman's also just posted some lovely TA...cheers jesse - I thought I was the only one on here who liked pnf charts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinecu Posted July 1, 2009 Report Share Posted July 1, 2009 Well 4 out of 5 aint bad....well after having a closer look, yesterday's close was 926.30, today's open was 926. So there you have it 'technically' I am right! So it is 5 out of 5! The fisherman's also just posted some lovely TA...cheers jesse - I thought I was the only one on here who liked pnf charts! Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Compounded Posted July 1, 2009 Report Share Posted July 1, 2009 I think everyone one should own some gold if they don't have any. +1 Some more observations...and some pre-flight checks... Candlesticks - check Cup & handle - check Bounce off lower median line - check Highest close in 14 days - check Closes over 38.2% Fib retracement - check Means big smackdown is probably due soon if you think the market is manipulated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 2, 2009 Report Share Posted July 2, 2009 +1 Means big smackdown is probably due soon if you think the market is manipulated. The drop in Oil may overwhelm those little bullish indications Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FishingwithJesse Posted July 2, 2009 Report Share Posted July 2, 2009 ya gotta learn to play it right. You got to know when to hold em, know when to fold em, Know when to walk away and know when to run. Don't forget : LAW OF CAUSE AND EFFECT ! "BIG CAUSE = BIG EFFECT" GOLD : $1240 USD = $71 FOLKS, Again, "TRUST YOURSELF " Have a Good weekend ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted July 2, 2009 Report Share Posted July 2, 2009 There’s a video at the link below with Blackrock Gold & General plus some more data from BullionVault http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/persona...of-bullion.html Gold investors add 43pc to holdings of bullion … BullionVault, which says it looks after more gold than many of the world’s central banks, reported 43pc growth in its clients’ physical holdings of the metal in the first half to more than 18 tonnes or $553m worth. … EDITED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWIW Posted July 2, 2009 Report Share Posted July 2, 2009 ya gotta learn to play it right. You got to know when to hold em, know when to fold em, Know when to walk away and know when to run. Don't forget : LAW OF CAUSE AND EFFECT ! "BIG CAUSE = BIG EFFECT" GOLD : $1240 USD = $71 FOLKS, Again, "TRUST YOURSELF " Have a Good weekend ! Well said Jesse! Wanted to get your thoughts on this picture: I think she will go down to at least 89.66... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 3, 2009 Report Share Posted July 3, 2009 I'm not the one who usually starts the new month's thread. But it is JULY - so here goes... Last month's thread ends here: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....6774&st=400 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 3, 2009 Report Share Posted July 3, 2009 I'm not the one who usually starts the new month's thread. But it is JULY - so here goes... New thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=7032 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 3, 2009 Report Share Posted July 3, 2009 From the Old thread Well said Jesse! Wanted to get your thoughts on this picture: I think she will go down to at least 89.66... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 3, 2009 Report Share Posted July 3, 2009 GOLD /GLD : Break or Bounce ? I'm betting: Break, So Gold can follow Oil lower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted July 3, 2009 Report Share Posted July 3, 2009 The following page has a nice little video (6 or 7 minutes) which summarizes in simple terms the essence of the Crisis of Credit (tech bust, subprime mortgages etc.). It doesn't really belong in this thread but anyway. http://www.tavex.fi/index.php?main=239&newsID=201 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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