InSilverWeTrust Posted July 8, 2009 Report Share Posted July 8, 2009 When you've got the likes of Celente, Faber, Schiff, Rogers and Chapman etc all calling Gold/Silver the place to be, how the hell haven't we seen a big physical call or big money hit the market yet? With such a relatively small amount of silver above ground, and with it's very high industral demand each yr, surely it's only a matter of time until someone decides to pull off a Hunt brothers moment. He who owns the Gold/Silver makes the rules. My Q is...who owns the Silver? C'mon hands up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted July 8, 2009 Report Share Posted July 8, 2009 I think I have most of it. My Q is...who owns the Silver? C'mon hands up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted July 8, 2009 Author Report Share Posted July 8, 2009 Houses in gold update. Nothing goes down in a straight line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted July 8, 2009 Report Share Posted July 8, 2009 Nope, don't think so, unless you're talking about something other than gold on it's way down. It'll go down, but it will come back up and perhaps quite quickly. With the pog coming down, it's giving China another chance to buy more gold with their dollar reserves, quite ironic really. Gold is on its way to $870 now. You should be asking what will happen if that breaks. $800, and even $700 are possible. I think some folks here may be in serious denial about what is going on now ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Posted July 8, 2009 Report Share Posted July 8, 2009 I know what will happen: I will buy more. Hope you dont mind the question G0ldfinger: you have been into gold for years with the price lower than it is now. I had assumed you would have reached your satuaration %. Why havent you? Are you trading gold rather than buying and holding/have you been profit taking? What % NAV in gold are you aiming for? Where will you leave the rest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 8, 2009 Report Share Posted July 8, 2009 "Yesterday I started nibbling on Gold etfs. / Gold is on its way to $870 now." ??? I do appreciate your sharings, Dr B - but I'm often a bit muddled by your game plan. Why? I said "nibbling" ! My plan is to buy on the way down, as it falls. So I will increase my position as it goes lower. I bought maybe 2-3% of my target spending so far. As open buy orders got hit. I plan to spend about 1/3 in July, 1/3 in August, 1/3 when the charts look right. It might take me to about 1,000 ounces or more If I knew exactly where it would fall to, and turn, then I would simply wait. But I'm not that smart. Having said that, a further fall looks "highly likely" If I had a 100% position on now, I would downsize to 50-75% on the break of that trend, since a drop to $870, or lower now looks "highly likely." I always said that I would wait until July (at least), and target GLD-$85. If we hit the target this month, i want to have at least 50% invested by month-end, more if "everything looks right." Is that clear enough? (A genuine question) I do find it worrying, that so many are complacent here, and see this is a mere temporary dip, a chance to buy. Is the whole gold bug market (Sinclair et al) thinking like that? I would prefer to hear more worries, if I am going to put big money into the metal. HOW DO I ASSESS FEAR-OF-FALLS in Gold?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted July 9, 2009 Author Report Share Posted July 9, 2009 Hope you dont mind the question G0ldfinger: you have been into gold for years with the price lower than it is now. I had assumed you would have reached your satuaration %. Why havent you? Are you trading gold rather than buying and holding/have you been profit taking? What % NAV in gold are you aiming for? Where will you leave the rest? I buy and hold. I am not satured because my retirement is way too far off, i.e. only a small amount of my (assumed) lifetime income is in PMs so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InSilverWeTrust Posted July 9, 2009 Report Share Posted July 9, 2009 Very clear! 1,000oz...wow...plenty of fondling there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 9, 2009 Report Share Posted July 9, 2009 A project for today's research: How to measure FEAR in the gold market ? Here's a post from the Gold etf research thread GLD CALL WATCH page ====== "Yesterday I started nibbling on Gold etfs." -------------------------------------------------- : Prices updated below at GLD-$89.27 /Gold-$909 I bought back some of the short side of my "Bull Spread" on GLD: + GLD $ 90 Calls : OQAAL / $11.20 - $11.50 - GLD $100 Calls : OQAAV / $ 8.10 - $ 8.30 / spread: $3.15 (originally Bought the Bull spread at over $3.00, to have a position that would make money if Gold suddenly ran up.) I also have buy orders in place on lower strike Calls for March 2010. Like these: GVDCW : Call (GVD) SPDR Gold Mar'10 $75c / $15.90 - $16.30 (iv: $14.27, tv: $ 1.83) GVDGR : Call (GVD) SPDR Gold Mar'10 $70c / $19.10 - $19.40 (iv: $19.27, tv: $ 0.00) !! OQAAW : Call (GVD) SPDR Gold Jan'11 $75c / $19.00 - $19.50 (iv: $14.27, tv: $ 4.98) OQAAR : Call (GVD) SPDR Gold Jan'11 $70c / $22.60 - $22.90 (iv: $19.27, tv: $ 3.48) OQAAH : Call (GVD) SPDR Gold Jan'11 $60c / $30.80 - $31.30 (iv: $29.27, tv: $ 0.78) Why buy Gold when you can buy a March 2010 call at zero intrinsic value?? At $19.30, a 1,000 oz. hedge* would cost me a mere $19.30 x 100 x 100 x ($90.90/89.27) :: $196,524 I will certainly hold some of my Gold position thru GLD calls. *( Would THAT do it for you, GF? ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted July 9, 2009 Report Share Posted July 9, 2009 Maybe he's wishing the price down as he begins to make his move. Over on the silver thread there seem to be a few of us doing the same with silver. Good point. Which is also saying not many here are too concerned about the short term moves in gold/silver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted July 9, 2009 Report Share Posted July 9, 2009 When you've got the likes of Celente, Faber, Schiff, Rogers and Chapman etc all calling Gold/Silver the place to be, how the hell haven't we seen a big physical call or big money hit the market yet? I'm starting to wonder if he's a little nuts. They are all hyper-inflationists. How long will it take before the theory of hyper-inflation is considered falsified/discredited? We should be buying gold/silver as a currency not a commodity/ [hyper] inflation hedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 9, 2009 Report Share Posted July 9, 2009 "When you've got the likes of Celente, Faber, Schiff, Rogers and Chapman etc all calling Gold/Silver the place to be, how the hell haven't we seen a big physical call or big money hit the market yet?" They are all hyper-inflationists. How long will it take before the theory of hyper-inflation is considered falsified? It's not only that they are all saying the same thing. The problem is the mainstream media are carrying their forecasts, and not laughing them off! When they start ridiculing Gold bugs (again!) then I will know it is time to buy Gold Larry Pesavento and Tom Obrien would love to see Gold fall to $875 around July 22nd: Larry Pesavento interviews : http://www.tfnn.com/interview_archives.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted July 9, 2009 Report Share Posted July 9, 2009 It's not only that they are all saying the same thing. The problem is the mainstream media are carrying their forecasts, and not laughing them off! When they start ridiculing Gold bugs (again!) then I will know it is time to buy Gold The fact that so many are calling for hyper-inflation, financial gurus and the mass media alike, makes the market susceptible to an inflation scare in the near future. Whereas psychology, perceptions and ideology will drive inflation scares, reality will drive the countering deflation scares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 9, 2009 Report Share Posted July 9, 2009 The fact that so many are calling for hyper-inflation, financial gurus and the mass media alike, makes the market susceptible to an inflation scare in the near future. ?? It's a "bi-polar market" IMHO. We have seen the swing to inflation fears, and are now in the midst of a swing back towards deflation fears. You can see it clearly in the Gold-to-TLT ratio: Maybe Larry P is right and the deflation swing will finish around July 22nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted July 9, 2009 Report Share Posted July 9, 2009 ?? It's a "bi-polar market" IMHO. The mass of investors might be "bi-polar". But surely this only refers to the confused perceptions of investors. The question remains about reality. Is deflation or inflation taking hold in the real economy? And accordingly which will eventually win out in the minds of investors? Perceptions eventually conform to reality. We have seen the swing to inflation fears, and are now in the midst of a swing back towards deflation fears.I agree. You can see it clearly in the Gold-to-TLT ratio: xxx Maybe Larry P is right and the deflation swing will finish around July 22nd The date by Larry P is interesting. I think we could see another inflation scare soonish. Perhaps there is not much legs in the present deflation swing and it would not take a lot for the previous inflation scare to re-ignite. Prechter and others are also looking for a further swing to the upside before we get a real deflation scare after the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Member100 Posted July 9, 2009 Report Share Posted July 9, 2009 They are all hyper-inflationists. How long will it take before the theory of hyper-inflation is considered falsified/discredited? Haha. Just went is seems to be most "discredited", and people have sold their Gold, the metal may takeoff like a rocket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted July 9, 2009 Report Share Posted July 9, 2009 Haha. Just went is seems to be most "discredited", and people have sold their Gold, the metal may takeoff like a rocket Yep, read signature. Not a very good theory if it played out that way... hyper-inflation that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 9, 2009 Report Share Posted July 9, 2009 HOW DO I ASSESS FEAR-OF-FALLS in Gold?? This is a good chart This first chart plots GLD’s holdings since its birth on November 18th, 2004. I like to compare GLD’s gold bullion held in trust with the performance of the price of gold, slaved to the right axis. Not only is multiplying its initial holdings by 94.3x as of mid-October utterly remarkable, but the way these gold holdings have grown is fascinating. They have been far more stable than even GLD’s most optimistic proponents, including me, originally expected at launch. While GLD’s holdings have indeed contracted modestly from time to time, its strategic growth trajectory has been tremendously impressive. GLD’s gold has climbed in a somewhat stair-stepped fashion. Of course when gold is surging in a powerful upleg, interest in gold investment is high and GLD grows rapidly. But provocatively, even when gold is not surging, GLD still tends to grow moderately on balance. When gold powered from around $750 in October 2007 to just over $1000 in mid-March, it is no surprise GLD’s holdings were growing. Everyone, especially non-contrarian mainstreamers, loves a hot investment. GLD’s holdings grew to an all-time high of 664 metric tons. But gold cracked on a Fed rate cut surprise (75bp instead of the 100bp expected) in mid-March and plunged 15.3% by early May. Did this spook GLD owners? Darned right it did! Check out the sharp drop in GLD’s holdings over this period. /see: http://seekingalpha.com/article/106213-hap...-four-years-out I am looking for an up-to-date chart that allows me to compare the "gold Bullion held" by GLD with the Gold price Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted July 9, 2009 Author Report Share Posted July 9, 2009 ... At $19.30, a 1,000 oz. hedge* would cost me a mere $19.30 x 100 x 100 x ($90.90/89.27) :: $196,524 I will certainly hold some of my Gold position thru GLD calls. *( Would THAT do it for you, GF? ) Bubb, I am on Jim Sinclair's and cg's side regarding derivatives. So, I wouldn't do it. But I understand that in theory this loks like a good thing to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 9, 2009 Report Share Posted July 9, 2009 HOW DO I ASSESS FEAR-OF-FALLS in Gold?? Some way to go to the next low ? /see Charts :: http://www.buythebottom.com/cot_charts/gold.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marmite Posted July 9, 2009 Report Share Posted July 9, 2009 Did anyone watch "Supersave Me" on BBC2 last night ? BBC promoting gold as an investment ??? Should we be worried ??? I cant explain it but I am feeling a lot more twitchy this summer than last. I think it might be all this "green shoots " talk, which I really dont buy but stll I keep questioning my views. Maybe I just need a holiday Is it a buying opertunity today in £ ?? Or will it be better to wait til August, I wonder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted July 9, 2009 Report Share Posted July 9, 2009 Did anyone watch "Supersave Me" on BBC2 last night ? BBC promoting gold as an investment ??? Should we be worried ??? ... I saw it. The show pretty much ramped everything. Stocks, property, cash, cars & gold. I was disappointed in Merynn. I was expecting her to offer a view on the investments but she didn’t really say anything negative about anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted July 9, 2009 Author Report Share Posted July 9, 2009 ... I was disappointed in Merynn. I was expecting her to offer a view on the investments but she didn’t really say anything negative about anything. Maybe she is confused. Whipsawing wipes everyone out who has no strong believes due to proper research. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted July 9, 2009 Report Share Posted July 9, 2009 I think she was just happy to be earning money as a presenter tbh. If you haven't seen it, Skip forward to 13:00 to watch the investor looking at gold (He is also a long term property investor) http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00ln...9_Supersave_Me/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted July 9, 2009 Report Share Posted July 9, 2009 Some snazzy new U.S. dollar note designs on this page: http://taoeconomics.com/content/coming-soo...l-reserve-notes Wisely no one-dollar note appears in that series. That series appears in this 4th July design competition: http://richardsmith.posterous.com/july-4th...-dollar-redeign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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