GOLD

[kernull]

nice silver setup here

[torino]

Wrongmove,

What makes you think we do not welcome diverse opinions here?

 

Intelligent bear arguments will help "keep us on our toes"

 

I wish we had seen more of them in July.

I nailed the top on Oil, but failed to see it would extend to Gold.

 

I suppose I was blinded by my own position in Juniors

 

Thanks Dr Bubb to remind that this thread is all the more interesting when

some contrarian opinions come to excite the local crowd - if I can put it

that way .

 

I am wondering: is it possible to find an estimate of worldwide non mined gold?

 

 

 

[wrongmove]

Wrongmove,

What makes you think we do not welcome diverse opinions here?

 

Intelligent bear arguments will help "keep us on our toes"

 

I wish we had seen more of them in July.

I nailed the top on Oil, but failed to see it would extend to Gold.

 

I suppose I was blinded by my own position in Juniors

 

Hi Dr B. I certainly don't feel unwelcome here. I was just wondering if I was sometimes attempting to debate with what you might call "fundamentalists".

 

I am not a gold bear, as such, well not at $800. I just don't see any good reason why gold will suddenly reverse this trend and "shoot to the moon". I accept a manic bubble is always a possibility, but not something that can be predicted.

 

 

 

[Errol]

Hi Dr B. I certainly don't feel unwelcome here. I was just wondering if I was sometimes attempting to debate with what you might call "fundamentalists".

 

I am not a gold bear, as such, well not at $800. I just don't see any good reason why gold will suddenly reverse this trend and "shoot to the moon". I accept a manic bubble is always a possibility, but not something that can be predicted.

 

Take a look at Jim Sinclair's website at jsmineset.com for some ideas of how gold might rise.

 

Gold will be at or around $1650 (probably a lot more) by 2011.

[UpTheKhyber]

Take a look at Jim Sinclair's website at jsmineset.com for some ideas of how gold might rise.

 

Gold will be at or around $1650 (probably a lot more) by 2011.

Not exactly a moon shot though, is it...more just rising a little above (real) inflation...

Jim's prediction is thoroughly realistic, but it doesn't exactly deserve the pictures of rockets that wrongmove is questioning (quite rightly imo)

[G0ldfinger]

Hi Dr B. I certainly don't feel unwelcome here. I was just wondering if I was sometimes attempting to debate with what you might call "fundamentalists".

 

I am not a gold bear, as such, well not at $800. I just don't see any good reason why gold will suddenly reverse this trend and "shoot to the moon". I accept a manic bubble is always a possibility, but not something that can be predicted.

I see no reason why it shouldn't.

[Catflap]

A great Zeal article from last year which explains the changing relationship between gold and the dollar index from stage 1 (the first few years of the bull run) to stage 2 (where we are now):

 

http://www.zealllc.com/2007/goldusdx.htm

 

[Steve Netwriter]

Even those who have no opinions whatsoever about gold and are completely ignorant of the issues involved are non-gold bugs.

 

Why don't you call a spade a spade and use the word anti-goldbug for those that are prejudiced against natural currency?

 

Edit: I also think the term "gold bug" tends to be used loosely. As I understand it, a gold bug is someone who will always hoard gold no matter the wider economic conditions. I consider myself a gold bull.... as long as the secular bull remains.

 

I admit I use the term goldbug loosely

 

Like many on here, but not generally worldwide, I am currently a gold bull.

If a goldbug implies always holding gold, then I might stay one, but only to a small percentage, say 5%. I can see sensible reasons for maintaining that small insurance, just in case.

 

Holding none implies a 100% faith in what you have. IMO that is a questionable position.

 

Edited to add: By the way, the number of contrarian posts on this forum indicates a bottom

 

[Errol]

Not exactly a moon shot though, is it...more just rising a little above (real) inflation...

 

Precisely. Gold is a store of value. I'm not buying it as an investment.

[Chubbs]

Some earlier comments and charts have got me seriously thinking - since mid July we've seen a fall in PoG from ~$980 to 800 (19%), but thanks to the weakening £, only £490 to £450 (8%).

 

What are your thoughts for the following: short term (pre-Nov election) price of Au and oil (in $) and $/£ ratio?

 

My feeling is the fall in £/$ has been too quick, and over the next 2 months will stabilise or go to $1.65 and head back up. This is going to be a global recession, but at the moment it seems to be reported as the EU going into recession and the US already recovering. After the election I think sentiments going to change and the $ is going to return to it's downtrend, just at a similar rate to the £ (and euro), so after an adjustment we'll all head down together. Concurrently, I think gold (and oil) is going to be held down til after the election before it heads up again.

 

The question is getting the balance right - if the sterling recovery begins before the gold recovery, then there's the potential to lose 10-20% due to £/$. If the gold recovery begins before sterling then it's evens.

 

Personally, I've only lost a few % on my gold investment thanks to the falling £, and I'm very tempted to cash out for a few weeks to watch the market...

 

 

 

 

[azazel]

Some earlier comments and charts have got me seriously thinking - since mid July we've seen a fall in PoG from ~$980 to 800 (19%), but thanks to the weakening £, only £490 to £450 (8%).

 

What are your thoughts for the following: short term (pre-Nov election) price of Au and oil (in $) and $/£ ratio?

 

My feeling is the fall in £/$ has been too quick, and over the next 2 months will stabilise or go to $1.65 and head back up. This is going to be a global recession, but at the moment it seems to be reported as the EU going into recession and the US already recovering. After the election I think sentiments going to change and the $ is going to return to it's downtrend, just at a similar rate to the £ (and euro), so after an adjustment we'll all head down together. Concurrently, I think gold (and oil) is going to be held down til after the election before it heads up again.

 

The question is getting the balance right - if the sterling recovery begins before the gold recovery, then there's the potential to lose 10-20% due to £/$. If the gold recovery begins before sterling then it's evens.

 

Personally, I've only lost a few % on my gold investment thanks to the falling £, and I'm very tempted to cash out for a few weeks to watch the market...

 

This is exactly what I've been thinking. If gold plummets further and sterling recovers, it will be double trouble.

[G0ldfinger]

Interesting for the inflation/deflation debate:

 

I am currently looking into consolidating (i.e. fixing the interest rate) for my wife's US student loan. Two options:

(1) fixed amount each month.

(2) increasing amount over the lifetime (last rate is double the first rate).

 

The loan runs over 15 years. At 4% interest and given that the IR is fixed in both cases, the inflationist should take option (2). Because you hardly pay off at the beginning, and towards the end you pay with worthless inflated dollars.

 

I really pray for the guys who own these bonds. 4%!!! What's CPI or RPI again?

[qwerty]

Dr.Marc Faber latest on Bloomberg (click link r/h corner)

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=aCm5bim8vGEo

 

 

 

00:00 Thai ``political mess, '' impact on stocks

02:42 Sovereign wealth, "tightening" liquidity

04:06 Sees economy in recession, oil price

05:23 Outlook for stocks, airlines and financials

06:23 Liquidity, U.S. economy, commodities outlook

 

Running time 09:14

[DanF]

This is exactly what I've been thinking. If gold plummets further and sterling recovers, it will be double trouble.

Ive been wondering about that too, but how much of the change in £/$ is due to the falling pound and how much is due to the strengthening dollar. The more it is down to the dollar, the more I expect gold to amplify the dollars fall in gains, when it does eventually fall back. But if its more down to sterling falling, then if that strengthens us brits will have big 'paper' losses (bigger than my current losses).

I bought most of my position in January and have been buying bits and pieces since then at varying prices and am currently sitting here with a loss... wishing Id put the money in the bank, at least until now, but hope to be proved right, sooner rather than later

[G0ldfinger]

When the Dollar falls, gold most likely will go up again. And it will go up more than the Dollar falls.

[DanF]

Thats what I meant by "I expect gold to amplify the dollars fall in gains", but we wont necessarily get the same thing if sterling bounces and the dollar does nothing.

[wrongmove]

Take a look at Jim Sinclair's website at jsmineset.com for some ideas of how gold might rise.

 

Gold will be at or around $1650 (probably a lot more) by 2011.

 

IIRC, JS "guarenteed" $1200 by end of 2008? He also made predictions about the dollar which have been proved wrong. He has been calling the bottom and saying "back up the truck" since at least $900. So, in my humble opinion, just cos Jim sez it, doesn't make it so.

 

 

[Bobsta]

Thats what I meant by "I expect gold to amplify the dollars fall in gains", but we wont necessarily get the same thing if sterling bounces and the dollar does nothing.

The way I look at things, I want the pound to bounce purely because it's so depressing to see my hard-earned cash wasting away.

 

I don't intend trading gold in relation to GBP movements. My gold holdings are only a proportion of my savings and you can bet that whatever action you take it'll go the other way.

 

IMHO significant Sterling appreciation isn't on the cards for a good few months and cashing in and out of gold on that basis isn't worthwhile. If you want to trade FX then trade it - but there are far more efficient methods than paying BV/physical dealing charges.

[wrongmove]

IIRC, JS "guarenteed" $1200 by end of 2008? He also made predictions about the dollar which have been proved wrong. He has been calling the bottom and saying "back up the truck" since at least $900. So, in my humble opinion, just cos Jim sez it, doesn't make it so.

 

Posted on July 30, 2008

 

StopWorrying About The Daily Noise

 

Author: Jim Sinclair

 

Dear Extended Family,

 

Please stop your worrying.

 

Today’s market action reflects the opinion that the Fed has everything under control because they are in charge by extending the life of the Begging Bowl lending window. If read clearly, there is a possibility that this window is open to other than financial institutions. That means the system is broken and has to be artificially held up because there is no other practical solution.

 

Today’s market action is because of the President’s housing bill (actually designed by the liberals) that is going to save all the foreclosures, therein reducing home inventories and improving home prices.

 

That thesis assumes the only problem with sub-prime loans is the resetting of rates. That suggests everything is hunky dory because employment figures showed a whopping growth of 9000 jobs.

 

Today’s market action is a product of the glee in media that jobs grew at 9000 after analysts, who will never be named, predicted a 60,000 job drop. The game today is to predict dire results and then put in a better than anticipated number so all looks fine.

 

Today’s market action is in the final distillate, the euro, against which the dollar improved. It seems however to be falling somewhat from its best positions.

 

The calls I am getting today are pretty much standard operating practice.

 

This is Prechter’s and Richard's anticipated meltdown of all assets as if gold bullion holders internationally are also in Merrill and WaMu while also loaded with all kinds of derivatives. Please click here to review the Formula to see how silly that opinion is.

 

Why do people keep calling me scared to death because they read some horrible prediction from an inexperienced person who uses a used laptop to publish their blog?

 

How many metals firms have they owned?

How many exchanges have they been members of?

How much successful trading have they actually accomplished?

Did the CFTC once accuse this person and his partner of manipulating the entire world gold market?

Did the Editor of Barrons call this person a pinhead in an editorial because that person said Volcker was a class act and would succeed?

Did this person catch a top in gold and suggest at least a 15-year bear market?

Who are you listening to?

 

The financial system is broken.

Most financial agents are walking dead zombies.

Gold is going to $1200 this year.

Gold will trade at $1650 on or before 14/01/11.

The US dollar is going to .62 and thence to .52

The euro will trade at $2 or more, simply as the largest cap non-dollar on the planet.

The Asian central banks will soak up any gold the West sells.

The assumption that the West runs the East was made at the "Stupid Factory of Egocentric Xenophobia."

As a final comment, the majority of calls I received until 1am this morning starting again at 6:30am today. Are people up to their eyeballs in margin?

 

Please think twice before calling me if your problem has been reviewed to death by me.

 

If you are simply lonely, I have a soft spot in my heart for that, but not all the time.

 

Respectfully yours,

Jim

[stevecook172001]

Genuine question folks

 

given that the pound is falling againts the dollar...

 

How much has gold fallen in value in uk pounds?

 

Is it as much as seems to be the case in terms of the price of gold in dollars?

 

Or, has the fall in the price of gold in pounds been less than would at first appear in dollar terms?

[Mr. Hanky]

Howwwwdy ho!

 

This charts has me confused. It's doing a bit of a support/resistance thing and could be seen as a bit bearish (IMO), but on the other hand we may have hit a temporary low, I think the RSI could be pointing to the chance of a bullish divergence. Maybe there will be a bounce?

 

[stevecook172001]

Genuine question folks

 

given that the pound is falling againts the dollar...

 

How much has gold fallen in value in uk pounds?

 

Is it as much as seems to be the case in terms of the price of gold in dollars?

 

Or, has the fall in the price of gold in pounds been less than would at first appear in dollar terms?

I really would be very grateful for some analysis on the above folks

[Ret45]

I am still new to this and was reading through some Jim Rogers interviews today. One thing that struck me was that, while he is confident in predicting general trends, he accepts the difficulty in predicting short term blips in the market. For instance, while he is very bullish on gold, it wouldn't surprise him if gold fell steeply short term etc. He talks in terms of trends over years and seems to resign himself to the fact that the human emotion element and irrational behaviour can maintain unsustainable market postions far longer than would logically be expected.

 

It seems to me that the general population won't switch to gold gradually over time, more likely that a sudden and dramatic surge in POG will catch the attention of the mainstream media and then the talking heads in the media will explain to us all (with the benefit of hindsight) how predictable and logical the move to gold was all along.

 

 

 

 

 

[Bobsta]

nice silver setup here

British Bulls seem to agree...

 

A bullish pattern has developed and a BUY-IF alert is issued today. The task is now to confirm the validity of this bullish pattern. We will guide you through this process but the Prima Donna of this game is nobody but you. First you must do your homework. A good starting point may be to keep an eye on after-hours and futures trading to get preliminary hints about the direction of the market. Related news, events, economic data, and the world stock markets should also be closely followed prior to confirmation session.

 

There are three possible cases of confirmation. You have to follow the next session carefully to check if these cases will hold or not:

 

The market opens with an upward gap, signaling a bullish sentiment in the first case. Your benchmark will be the opening price. If the prices stay over the benchmark, go long. Any white candlestick with an upward gap is a valid confirmation criterion.

 

In the second case, the market opens at a level, equal to or below the previous day’s close. The benchmark is that closing price. If prices during the session stay over the benchmark, go long. Any white candlestick closing above the previous day’s close is the second confirmation criterion.

 

If, however, in both cases, the prices during the session start coming below the benchmark, avoid buying. Sell if you feel a definite tendency in prices to close the day below the benchmark.

 

The third case of confirmation is rarely observed. The market opens with a big downward gap suggesting a very bearish day, and the day ends with a long white candlestick, but still closing below the previous day’s close. However, such a day satisfies the third confirmation criterion and in this case the closing price of the long white candlestick will be taken as the price of confirmation.

 

If one of the three confirmation criteria is not fulfilled, or in case of a black candlestick or a doji on the confirmation day, the BUY-IF alert remains valid, however without confirmation and the three confirmation criteria are then sought in the following day. The only exception is the long black candlestick. Any long black candlestick following a BUY-IF alert makes it (the signal) void and invalid.

 

We do not suggest any new short positions given the bullish alert. The short sellers should consider covering their positions if the market confirms the BUY-IF signal. Otherwise, existing short positions should be carried.

[stevecook172001]

I am trying to work out some rough numbers in relation to my question. does anyone know what the exchange rate was between the dollar and pound on the 4th of August?