G0ldfinger Posted September 9, 2008 Author Report Share Posted September 9, 2008 An accelerating selloff. Do they know what they are doing? They're trying to help the US. Everyone does. That's why the final realization that it won't work will be so painful. Imagine that chart reversing the trend seomtime soon. The impact on price would be amazing. EDIT: So they sold something like 240 tonnes since 2004. It's actually not that much altogether. But this does not account for indvidual banks? Or does it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted September 9, 2008 Author Report Share Posted September 9, 2008 Do they have an official reason for reducing their gold reserves? Useless asset, blahblah, no-interest, blahblah, diversification, blahblah, always goes down in value, blahblah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted September 9, 2008 Report Share Posted September 9, 2008 No. It is where monetization accelerates I also wonder whether the history of Northern Rock might not reapeat itself... That group is now doing everything it can (raising interest rates, offering smaller percentage loans, etc) to decrease the number of mortages it backs. This is because it wants to lower its obligations and claw back cash to increase is reserves. Everyone except those with really bad credit rating are moving on to other lenders. But moving on to another lender won't be such an easy option shou8ld F+F start acting like NR, since F+F are behind over half of all US mortgages. So could this mean that the bale out is actually going to depress rather than stimulate the US housing market over the next few years? ...hmmmmm Deflationary then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted September 9, 2008 Report Share Posted September 9, 2008 I've already invested all the money I'd intended to on gold and silver, and it amounts to between 10 and 15% of my proverbial life savings. I think it's fairly unlikely that I'll be putting any more (or perhaps much more) into it. Shame really as I'd've been better off all round spending my 10 to 15% now rather than over the last few months. I guess this highlights that, when it comes to the alleged long-term bull in gold and silver, I lack conviction, and I'm still just a wishy-washy 'neither'... OJ, what currency are you in? Are you confident with it? If not, why not think of gold and silver as alternative currencies. Then you could split your "worth" between say four currencies; two natural and then two..... not so natural. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted September 9, 2008 Report Share Posted September 9, 2008 $680 -- Are you really sure that you wouldn't run around like a headless chicken, quoting Prechter and Mish (and RB) all the time, screaming you're only going to hold Dollars from now on? Well, if gold did happen to go to that price, I would not be confident that the dollar would not sink at a later date against gold. Therefore would definitely not buy dollars with my gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted September 9, 2008 Report Share Posted September 9, 2008 Fundamentally no. $680 -- Are you really sure that you wouldn't run around like a headless chicken, quoting Prechter and Mish (and RB) all the time, screaming you're only going to hold Dollars from now on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted September 9, 2008 Report Share Posted September 9, 2008 Deflationary then? I'm sure you're joking and winding me up. Nice one But just in case you're not. ...what I mentioned would imply: - increased money supply, so inflation in the cost of living - deflation in asset prices (which has no direct impact on money supply or the cost of living) Basic history (adapted from http://parcontre.blogspot.com/ ): - The last decade has entailed a massive money supply increase - that caused things that respond quickly to achieve bubble prices (especially house prices) - but things that respond slowly (e.g., cost of living items) are still yet to fully inflate to match the extra money in the system - Recently, borrowers and lenders have realised they've overdone it, hence the emerging global slowdown as they move back to a more sensible credit environment - this does not imply a reduced money supply, quite the opposite as bale outs like F+F pump up the system even further - but it does mean that things that overinflated previously will fall substantially to a fairer value (e.g. houses) - whilst things they are still lagging behind (e.g., cost of living items) are still inflating, and that rate will even increase due the still increasing money supply - Another way the overall net inflation must express itself is as a fall in currency values relative to 'standards' [such as cost of living items, or PMs] Other interesting conclusions - inflation measures (e.g. CPI, RPI) are based on things that are still playing catch up, so they are dramatically understating the real net inflation rate we're all suffering (ask any housewife if you want this confirmed) - all the new money being pumped in to keep falling asset (e.g. house) prices up will not work, as money is smart and does NOT move into things that are falling in price - instead the new money will move to inflate some new bubbles, probably in things still playing catch up (so providing another boost to the inflation rate for cost of living items) PM and tin hat time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted September 9, 2008 Report Share Posted September 9, 2008 Al discusses market intervention with Ed Steer of Casey Research. 30th Aug 2008 http://www.kereport.com/audio/0906-02.mp3 "This market we are looking at now is a complete financial economic and monetary hallucination. You cannot believe anything you see. If they let this one implode it's going to make the 1930s look like a mild recession. If they let it go it's going to crash. If they prop it up it's going to be even worse. One way or another it's going to be an inflationary depression, and there's no way out of that. I would buy as much physical gold & silver as you can. It's either death by a thousand cuts or death by one swift thrust. The whole Western financial and economic system is done for, and if you are not scared to death there's something wrong with you. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted September 9, 2008 Report Share Posted September 9, 2008 The Weekend Special for Saturday September 6th, 2008 Al talks with David Morgan about the current gold and silver markets. Part 1: http://www.kereport.com/WeekendSpecial/WS090608-1.mp3 Part 2: http://www.kereport.com/WeekendSpecial/WS090608-2.mp3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted September 9, 2008 Report Share Posted September 9, 2008 I'm sure you're joking and winding me up. Nice one - Another way the overall net inflation must express itself is as a fall in currency values relative to 'standards' [such as cost of living items, or PMs] PM and tin hat time Yes, I see a fall in currency value [good choice of words] on the horizon. Deflationary for the value of the dollar and inflationary for prices. Of course this will affect all prices [even assets] which may end up extremely volatile and range bound. I imagine it will be very hard for investors to find meaningful trends in asset prices as the deflation of these prices may be negated by a weakening currency [opposing inflationary force]. Gonna keep my eyes on value and ratios. Edited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted September 9, 2008 Report Share Posted September 9, 2008 I find the Sprott reports to be very good: http://www.sprott.com/pdf/marketsataglance/MAAG.pdf We believe the bizarre action in the markets during July and August does not portend of a new trend. In our opinion, oil, gold, and other real assets shall remain in a bull market and the faux-rally in financials will die the death of a thousand cuts. We believe the visible hand (and not so visible hand) are everywhere trying to phony up the markets. Apparently there is too much at stake to let the free markets decide. But logic, and history, dictates that decide they ultimately will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dietcolaaddict Posted September 9, 2008 Report Share Posted September 9, 2008 $790 low now being re-tested! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
headmelter Posted September 9, 2008 Report Share Posted September 9, 2008 $790 low now being re-tested! broken....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIGA Posted September 9, 2008 Report Share Posted September 9, 2008 broken....... I feel broken battered and bruised. I am holding strong and can't wait for the US elections to be over. It is possible and likely next year we will look back and realise over the last 2 months and for the next 1 or 2 gold and silver had been in the sale of the century. I have SOME dry powder but am finding it very difficullt to buy emotionally - i am just holding for now. I have made a concious decsion to let go of some of the dry stuff next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sossij Posted September 9, 2008 Report Share Posted September 9, 2008 I feel broken battered and bruised. I am holding strong and can't wait for the US elections to be over. It is possible and likely next year we will look back and realise over the last 2 months and for the next 1 or 2 gold and silver had been in the sale of the century. I have SOME dry powder but am finding it very difficullt to buy emotionally - i am just holding for now. I have made a concious decsion to let go of some of the dry stuff next week. I'm buying this afternoon, just waiting to see how far this dip is going to go. Cheap gold everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HPCsoYESTERDAY Posted September 9, 2008 Report Share Posted September 9, 2008 Euro approaching $1.4 level again. Whilst the $ smacks the euro, gold will fall it seems. Gold still well above £400/oz and look what a 1ozcoin gets on ebay: http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/1oz-Fine-Gold-Kruger...1QQcmdZViewItem why worry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sossij Posted September 9, 2008 Report Share Posted September 9, 2008 Euro approaching $1.4 level again. Whilst the $ smacks the euro, gold will fall it seems. Gold still well above £400/oz and look what a 1ozcoin gets on ebay: http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/1oz-Fine-Gold-Kruger...1QQcmdZViewItem why worry? I'm not - nice buying dip this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ares Posted September 9, 2008 Report Share Posted September 9, 2008 [/url] Looks like the $775-$780 is crucial level break that and maybe we test the old may 06 high I have taken a little trade on the double long ETF here (DGP) with a tight stop. UPDATE: Looks like we touched the 777 level again, and bounced who knows could just be a retest before a rally. Though with the utter carnage in the PM stocks I can't say I really feel like things are going to turn around very quick, here hoping I am a good contrarian indicator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tl8177 Posted September 9, 2008 Report Share Posted September 9, 2008 Just bought more GM gold, so take cover for a late afternoon smackdown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sossij Posted September 9, 2008 Report Share Posted September 9, 2008 Just bought more GM gold, so take cover for a late afternoon smackdown Likewise, only on BV. Couldn't be bothered waiting around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted September 9, 2008 Report Share Posted September 9, 2008 Looks like the $775-$780 is crucial level break that and maybe we test the old may 06 high UPDATE: Looks like we touched the 777 level again, and bounced who knows could just be a retest before a rally. I listened to Friday's Financial Sense podcast on the way into London this morning (which I thoroughly recommend, BTW). I can't remember which guest mentioned it, but $775 was cited as an important level. Break below it and it signals the market is ignoring intervention and taking a short-term deflationary view (potentially until around year end). Go above it and take $850, and the intervention is being priced in and the market has realised we're in inflationary mode. I'm watching from the sidelines and staying clear of Silver for now - this is going to be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisP Posted September 9, 2008 Report Share Posted September 9, 2008 friggin' hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 9, 2008 Report Share Posted September 9, 2008 TIME to buy oil, maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted September 9, 2008 Report Share Posted September 9, 2008 Likewise, only on BV. Couldn't be bothered waiting around And me - just topped up in Sterling ...wish GBP it hadn't weakened so much recently though Breakeven now at £7.30 ($12.90 given current exchange) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PricedOutNative Posted September 9, 2008 Report Share Posted September 9, 2008 Commodities down; it’s DEFLATION! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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