GOLD

[ologhai]

Yes, this will be a great indicator of the public mania phase.

 

I think these types of competitions are highly likely - gold captures the public's imagination like little else. And if people get into that "Its price always goes up" mindset the marketing effect will be double. I remember when I was a child - mid 1980's - the UK confectioner Cadbury's ran a competition hiding 10 or so solid gold eggs in the UK countryside, with each location a solution to a riddle (you had to eat XX chocolate bars to get the riddle book). This was so successful that people went treasure hunting in all sorts of places and the National Trust was complaining of criminal damage to UK heritage sites.

 

I don't quite follow the thinking on this. When Cadbury ran this competition, it was a couple of years or so after gold had crashed. Was the public in a gold mania at the time?

 

My feeling at the time was that it was just a bandwagon project on the part of Cadbury in the wake of Kit Williams' tremendous success with Masquerade. In other words, Cadbury were keen to make a few quid on the treasure-hunt craze that Kit Williams kicked off. I don't know how these two competitions could be linked to any public feelings specifically about gold or its value?

 

[ologhai]

Oh... POG on the way up this (UK) morning.

 

I wonder if we'll have a repeat of yesterday -- UK puts the price up, US batters it down?

[bitbigt]

Oh... POG on the way up this (UK) morning.

I wonder if we'll have a repeat of yesterday -- UK puts the price up, US batters it down?

 

...probably (see my posts from yesterday for why).

 

But the balance of forces was only slightly downwards during the overall US session, so I'm hoping/guessing we'll NOT see another major pullback in the next week or two. ...and perhaps just the opposite if the dollar starts to weaken from here.

[El Dali]

I am still awaiting my SPX-1450-ish target, before shorting

 

The chart target looks almost too good ... update

 

 

Nice recent action in PMs. Which charts do you guys use to look at intra-day volume?

[ologhai]

I dunno, those gold traders in the US... No subtlety!

 

It's either sudden surges or dramatic drops -- nothing in between!

[bitbigt]

I dunno, those gold traders in the US... No subtlety!

It's either sudden surges or dramatic drops -- nothing in between!

 

"No subtlety" - that's because they're American, not because they're traders

 

Seems I was right - USD weakening, and so gold going up. I think this will continue over next few weeks.

 

I still expect CBs to try to fight this increasing PoG later in the week (Fridays are their favorite time), but buying momentum is growing, and so they may have a hard time keeping a lid on this.

 

So whereas I debated earlier whether the big run up in PoG will start now or wait until the autumn - on balance I'm now leaning towards the view that what we're seeing now (i.e., the rise since 850) is actually the start of this big run up. Of course, 1000 will be a struggle this summer, but that will yield. ...IMHO

 

[warpig]

Whilst I know we will suffer further corrections I am now confident this one at least has finished, $922.42 not too shabby. What bad news has provoked this uptrend?

[Gatesy]

Whilst I know we will suffer further corrections I am now confident this one at least has finished, $922.42 not too shabby. What bad news has provoked this uptrend?

Seems infaltion has something to do with it......and falling equties (at last)

 

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2060108...&refer=home

[dietcolaaddict]

I don't quite follow the thinking on this. When Cadbury ran this competition, it was a couple of years or so after gold had crashed. Was the public in a gold mania at the time?

Ologhai Jones and notanewmember, I take your points. Perhaps the public do not share the same fascination with gold than I have, they are mearly motivated by the monetary value of a competition prize. Still I like the old photos which get my memory going....

 

Gold has got out of the right side of bed this morning.....lets hope this holds for the rest of the week. Todays upward move is in gold and silver, Pt and Pd are not continuing their recent climb.

[Pixel8r]

Nice recent action in PMs. Which charts do you guys use to look at intra-day volume?

 

I use this; http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/gold.php

 

If you click on the blue option button, that appears when you hover over the graph then click the check box marked osc.

 

There is also one for silver, with volume. http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/silver.php

[electroweak]

nice action in silver..

 

[Bobsta]

nice action in silver..

 

I really didn't want that to happen so quickly. I intended to build a bigger position than I have now in silver and in fact had some buy orders in place at $16.45. They're pretty redundant now. I'm now struggling to work out whether buying in now is suicide or a last chance.

 

 

[dopamine]

I really didn't want that to happen so quickly. I intended to build a bigger position than I have now in silver and in fact had some buy orders in place at $16.45. They're pretty redundant now. I'm now struggling to work out whether buying in now is suicide or a last chance.

 

Snap - wanted to buy at around about 16 but didn't have time to ring my broker. Will now wait to see if it holds over 17 for a few days - strong support at around 17 was what preceded the last big breakout if I remember rightly. We've nearly had a 'dollar day' today - first for quite a while, so am always anxious about buying around one of these little spikes.

[Steve Netwriter]

Last call to board gold train at under $1000

John Embry

http://www.sprott.com/pdf/investorsdigest/digest.pdf

 

Recommended by Jim.

 

[Gatesy]

I really didn't want that to happen so quickly. I intended to build a bigger position than I have now in silver and in fact had some buy orders in place at $16.45. They're pretty redundant now. I'm now struggling to work out whether buying in now is suicide or a last chance.

Ditto ! Can;t decide whether to kick myself for bottom fishing or whether to go with "the trends your friend" ! Easy saying these things in hindsight .

[G0ldfinger]

Ditto ! Can;t decide whether to kick myself for bottom fishing or whether to go with "the trends your friend" ! Easy saying these things in hindsight .

I would have bought several times below $900, but in the end I couldn't since I am fully invested already and can not save more at the moment due to higher outgo. It will be annoying if later this year the price will be way above $1,000 and I'll have less outgo and will be able to buy again. Oh well, that's life. Good thing is, that I did a lot of buying last year. So, I can't complain really.

 

EDIT: With WTI crude oil at $129, gold could be at $1,900 without being more expensive than historical average since 1946.

[G0ldfinger]

Nice one by cgnao:

 

Want To Know When It All Blows Up?

 

When the securities (light blue) component of the FED assets gets to zero, it's armageddon.

 

It went down from $800bn to $500bn in a few months, and every new wave down is getting bigger....

 

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=77450

[Atoning Unifex]

Nice one by cgnao:

yes that was good, the rate they are burning through there "reserves" is shocking.

 

 

[Steve Netwriter]

Nice on GF. Off to read more on that.....

 

----------------

 

From the excitement of $1030 to the 'gloom' of $850. Already gold has passed the 38% up from the bottom level, and is on its way to the 50% level.

 

 

 

[Steve Netwriter]

You may find some of this surprising:

 

$62 Billion More Reasons for Optimism

http://www.cumber.com/commentary.aspx?file....asp&n=l_mc

 

The Fed’s Term Auction Facility (TAF) is more than it seems when one considers the impact of its counterparts operated by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the dollar swap arrangements that are involved. In plain language it works like this.

 

Banks, for example, which are members of the Eurosystem through the European Central Bank (ECB), put up collateral in accordance with the ECB rules. The collateral is denominated in euros, has a 17% “haircut,” and is posted at the national central bank of the particular country. The 17% is intended to cover any foreign exchange (FX) risk and any counterparty risk if there is a default.

 

The Eurosystem banks then borrow in dollars under the TAF rules. Let me be redundant, drawing some parallels with the US, and try to simplify and clarify this complex arrangement. These banks are headquartered in Europe, and are NOT, therefore, members of the Federal Reserve System; they are in the Eurosystem. They are using euro paper NOT dollar paper to secure their loans. BUT the loans are in dollars and the terms are the same as those used by the US banks who are borrowing under the Fed’s TAF. The collateral is policed by the national central banks in Europe, just as the US banks are policed by one of the twelve regional Federal Reserve banks here in the US.

 

Where does the ECB or SNB get the dollars to lend to its banks?

.

.

.

 

The ECB and SNB use of TAF may help explain the weakness of the dollar. On this one we are speculating but here is our logic. The European borrowing banks are borrowing dollars, hence they are short dollars. The Eurosystem TAF is increasing the supply of dollars and banks are deploying them profitably at a spread. In so doing they are bidding up the price of dollar assets and narrowing the credit spreads. But remember, the source of the transaction is a short sale (borrowing) of dollars whose supply has now increased relative to euros. Short sales drive down a price. Hence the euro gains an upside bias and the dollar a downside bias in the foreign exchange markets (FX) as these ECB and SNB TAF auctions are expanded.

 

Will this reverse? Yes, it must. At some point in time the ECB, SNB, and our Fed and other central banks will stop expanding the use of new tools like the TAF. After they are satisfied that credit markets will normalize, we expect them to begin a gradual withdrawal of these arrangements and attempt to restore the system to normalcy. That withdrawal action will entail covering the dollar short (paying off the loan), which equates with buying dollars and selling euros.

 

Will that strengthen the dollar? We believe the answer must be yes. Furthermore, we have a previous reference to this type of transaction. In 2005 we saw the dollar strengthen because of a one-time change in the US tax code. Under that repatriation event US companies borrowed euros (a short position) and used the euros to buy dollars and repatriate them to the US. After the tax holiday law expired, the market then reversed and the euro strengthened, as we know. When the TAF finally reaches its peak level, the market will begin to anticipate the cessation of global TAF enlargement and will focus on its subsequent reversal. That expectation will appear in the FX markets at once and will be exhibited as a stronger dollar and weaker euro. We may be seeing the first signs of that expectation in the FX market right now.

 

Our outlook.

 

We are fully invested worldwide in equities using exchange-traded funds. We have sold our US treasury positions down to the bare minimal core requirements. We are participating in the narrowing of credit spreads by positioning in longer-duration spread products of investment-grade only. We are not buying any junk. In the Muni market we are very opportunistic, as this sector is still dysfunctional and is therefore providing extraordinarily high returns on tax-free municipal bonds

 

We will hold these strategies as long as we see the expansion of the Fed’s tools applied for the purpose of restoring the financial system to more normal functionality. When and if we see the Fed reaching a level of cessation of expansion of the tools, we will be proactive in reallocating assets.

 

But that is then and this is now. For now this activity is very bullish for equities, and it supports our notion that the US slowdown will be shallower and shorter than it would otherwise have been, had the Fed not become aggressively proactive last December and continued that pro-activity to present.

[drbubb]

Here are some charts that drive me towards buying Junior Gold shares

 

Gold-to-Oil : looking very cheap again (ie. Gold is cheap relative to oil)

At only 7 barrels, Gold is cheap versus WTI Crude

 

CDNX-to-Gold : Looks like it is ready for a very serious rally from the bottom

(I liked yesterday's strong action in CDNX, while SPX and DJIA were down big.)

 

As I have said elsewhere, CDNX is usually a good proxy for Junior mining shares,

but some of the recent jump may have been driven by the junior Oil & Gas shares in CDNX

 

Have you notice the bullish move in RGLD, one of my favorites ... update

Stronger than Gold (GLD), stronger than gold majors (GDX)

 

Some would say "it's been a long wait", but along the way, I have traded in and out many times (buying below $30,

selling near $32), making money each time. The charts have helped enormously, but my confidence in RGLD,

and in the bull market in Gold have been an essential part of the successful trading in this stock.

(BTW, I am now sell some calls I bought when the stock was $28, and holding onto the longer term part of

my investment in RGLD calls and RGLD stock.)

[Steve Netwriter]

OK own up, who just bought a pallets worth of gold ?

 

I was just thinking how unnatural these flat sections look. And then within a few second it jumped up.

 

923.4. Doing nicely

 

[Mr Pipples]

OK own up, who just bought a pallets worth of gold ?

 

I was just thinking how unnatural these flat sections look. And then within a few second it jumped up.

 

923.4. Doing nicely

 

The pound spiked down against the euro at the same time too: http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GBPEUR=X

[azazel]

Are we going to see a correction in oil prices and if so will gold fall also? Or will investors take their profits from oil before the correction and then invest in gold pushing the gold price up?

[drbubb]

THE BIGGEST ISSUE of our time...?

 

Carfree Living consists of several parts: (i am adding to this list, as more points become apparent.)

=========

+ Own no car, or one "heavily parked"

+ Avoiding the need to seek scarce fuel for car, in times of rationing

+ A rich and varied "street life" within walking distance (& maybe schools too)

+ Effective public transport to get to work, school (if needed), and "play" (cultural and leisure activities)

 

Compare to living in the "stranded suburbs" when the oil prices hits $250 on its way to $500, and so:

 

A CRITICAL POINT:

Don't even think about buying a home in the "stranded suburbs", unless the price differential is so big,

you can sustain a move in oil prices to $500 or higher, and you can also bear future rationing.

 

check out the thread on Carfree living/ Demand Destruction:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=3197