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The Message from Friday

 

Gold soared $50 this past Friday. It began the day at $748 and was trading at $800 when the day ended.

 

It is rare for gold to achieve such a huge one-day gain. In fact, I checked my records for the past twenty years and found only one other instance when gold climbed $50 or more in a day. Interestingly, the other occurrence was on September 17, 2008, barely two months ago. That rally also took gold back above $800.

 

That these two rallies - unique and rare in their magnitude - occurred so near to one another is significant. Is there a message from these two events? Yes, indeed!

 

Gold itself is telling us two things. First, there is an enormous short position in gold. Huge rallies occur for a reason, and short covering is always a factor. In order to limit their losses, shorts will bid up the market in a desperate attempt to cover their position. The rule of thumb is straightforward - the bigger the short position, then the bigger the rally.

 

Second, and more importantly, these huge rallies are signaling that gold under $800 is too cheap. A higher price is needed to bring supply and demand back into balance.

 

There is other, more than ample evidence to support this same conclusion. The demand for physical metal remains strong.

 

For example, Eric Lemaire of 24hGold.com has prepared two new pages which offer details on the premiums being charged on eBay for coins and small bars. Both the page for gold and the one for silver show that premiums remain well above historical norms, indicating that coins and small bars remain in short supply.

 

http://www.24hgold.com/english/buy_sell_go...ns.aspx?co_id=0

http://www.24hgold.com/english/buy_sell_si...ns.aspx?co_id=0

 

Friday's trading action adds to the growing body of evidence that the correction in gold that began after making a new record high in March above $1020 is ending. The low in gold in all likelihood is probably in place. The $700 level has been tested and re-tested, and the huge rallies launched from prices below $800 mean that other attempts to take gold into the $700s will be met with good demand.

 

I remain in the inflation camp, but even those who are expecting deflation like gold here. See for example what Mish has to say:

 

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...-gold-here.html

 

Gold remains in a bull market, and so does silver. National currencies are in a bear market. Get ready for the next leg in the precious metal's ongoing bull market.

 

Published by GoldMoney

Copyright © 2008. All rights reserved.

Edited by James Turk, alert@goldmoney.com

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Can you buy bars or coins? :rolleyes:

 

But I think I will wait for it to really hit the bottom first. :rolleyes:

Still haven't bought any Palladium over her. Rhodium, yeah, I would like to have some too. But maybe these kind of things (Rhodium etc.) have to be ordered from industry suppliers. Prices might be much higher than spot in this case,

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Wow... POG through 820. I did not expect to see such an explosive move so soon. I wonder if some big players in the market are getting nervous with all the news about Detroit and now Citibank, and are starting to click onto the fact that the bailout is turning into a runaway train. Another stimulus package is in the pipeline and rumoured to be near 750 billion. :o

 

The goose looks cooked.

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I don't know much about platinum and rhodium but here's an article from August talking of the complexities and difficulties of these markets. I quote from near the end.

This is a cautionary tale for small investors. If you think that someone has worked out a way for the little guy to make a play in a rare thinly traded minor metal such as rhodium please keep in mind that there is a credible story that a Fortune 500 end user of rhodium crashed and burned. This by convincing itself that trading one commodity is just like trading another so that any member of the finance staff is up to the job managed to lose as much as a billion dollars of the shareholder’s money because he and his management were way over their heads. An analogous situation actually is well known to have occurred in 2001-2 when panicked and inexperienced buyers at Ford and Toyota convinced by sophisticated advisors from a New York-based financial institution that palladium was going to go to $3,000 an ounce entered into take-or-pay agreements for several years forward that obligated them to pay $500-700 an ounce for palladium that never again went over $300 an ounce during the lives of their agreements. Those deals cost Ford and Toyota each over $1 billion in write downs.

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=45541

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I don't know much about platinum and rhodium but here's a recent article talking of the complexities and difficulties of these markets.

 

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=45541

I see these metals as a riskier buy as they will rely on the commodity bull kicking back in [which I think it may very well do once/if China bounces back]. I would only buy semi-precious or industrial metals if they were dirt cheap and with money I could go without for quite a while. You will not find a more conservative investor than me. Actually, I think the whole model of "investment" is being called into question by current events.

 

I see the good old days of 20% returns well and truly over. Now it is about return of capital, and preserving it... in order to buy assets once they have returned to a realistic value.

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Gold and silver have risen strongly last friday and today, and yet the PPT has NOT smacked them down ...why?

 

I suspect the US government may be getting worried about how strong the dollar has become, as this [a] destroys their chance of boosting exports, and pushes them towards the big scary deflation monster!

 

So they've probably decide to let gold tell its story for a while, which will tend to lower confidence in the USD and weaken it down to more acceptable levels.

 

It's kinda like drilling a little hole in the dam to reduce the water pressure. But the fools obviously haven't watched enough disaster movies - since they'd then know that their small hole soon becomes a big hole, then a total collapse of the dam!

 

...all good for PoG, of course :)

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GoldMoney Alert - 23 November 2008

 

The Message from Friday

 

Gold soared $50 this past Friday. It began the day at $748 and was trading at $800 when the day ended.

 

It is rare for gold to achieve such a huge one-day gain. In fact, I checked my records for the past twenty years and found only one other instance when gold climbed $50 or more in a day. Interestingly, the other occurrence was on September 17, 2008, barely two months ago. That rally also took gold back above $800.

 

That these two rallies - unique and rare in their magnitude - occurred so near to one another is significant. Is there a message from these two events? Yes, indeed!

 

http://www.goldmoney.com/en/commentary/2008-11-23.html

 

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Gold and silver have risen strongly last friday and today, and yet the PPT has NOT smacked them down ...why?

 

PPT has and is braking gold & silver. Massively. You have no idea what would have happened if they hadn't.

 

Anyway, it won't work for much longer.

 

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PPT has and is braking gold & silver. Massively. You have no idea what would have happened if they hadn't.

 

How do you think they are braking gold & silver? I am interested as to the methods that you think they would use to control price. I understand that they would create supply to rebalance demand, but surely they will be running out of supply soon.

 

Anyway, it won't work for much longer.

 

Glad about that :lol:

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So what will be the effect on the December COMEX contracts at this new price? Does the higher price make it more likely there will be a default or does the higher price indicate that shorts were covering their positions?

 

Or have I been caught with my shorts down 'cos I haven't a clue what I'm talking about?

 

In theory, those long on the COMEX are more likely to request delivery if the price is too low rather than the opposite. The old adage is, "there's only one cure for low prices and that's more low prices."

 

Therefore, should the price rise from these lows, the less likely that they'll be a default on the COMEX or at least that's what I've been told. To be honest, these big daily rises make me somewaht nervous as it could be a prelude to further manipulation once the heat is off the Cartel for a while i.e. until March 2009.

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massive yaaaawn

 

ffs join gata or do due dilligence

 

u know better than to be a PATHETIC troll pixie

 

You asked me to put you on "ignore" remember. :lol:

 

Why don't you enlighten me as to the answer to my question, rather than call me a troll, which blatantly I am not. I guess you sort of have in amongst the insults, by mentioning Gata.

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In theory, those long on the COMEX are more likely to request delivery if the price is too low rather than the opposite. The old adage is, "there's only one cure for low prices and that's more low prices."

 

Therefore, should the price rise from these lows, the less likely that they'll be a default on the COMEX or at least that's what I've been told. To be honest, these big daily rises make me somewaht nervous as it could be a prelude to further manipulation once the heat is off the Cartel for a while i.e. until March 2009.

 

Dungberg seems to think there will be a sell off

 

The rise on friday is most likely shorts covering cuz of Thanksgiving. If there are no fireworks on Wednesday or friday there is going to be a lot of people scratching their heads

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