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... I must confess, I am curious as to why some posters seem obsessed with trying to dissuade others from buying PMs. Generally it is in the interests of central banks to take this position not ordinary people......Hmmm.....

People fear what they don't know, don't understand. Most people don't own/know gold, and they certainly don't understand it. They also don't understand paper money, but at least they own it and use it (without any questions asked!) every day.

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Interesting comments from JT, which reflect comments made a few months ago by Nouriel Roubini, saying we have now seen the worst of the recession, which at the time struck me as odd. Perhaps this is the calm before the inflationary storm...

 

The stock market is not rising because the economy is doing well, the stock market is rising because the central bank is on the path towards hyperinflation. Earlier this year I was saying that the dollar is heading for hyperinflation and that the writing would be on the wall by the end of this year, 1st quarter of the next year at the absolute latest. The fact that the stock market is rising, is a clear sign of a hyperinflationary path.

 

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Interesting comments from JT, which reflect comments made a few months ago by Nouriel Roubini, saying we have now seen the worst of the recession, which at the time struck me as odd. Perhaps this is the calm before the storm...

imo the stock market is rising because of a weak dollar leaving the more discerning of traders mystified. I wonder though if continued weakness in the real economy will overwhelm the stock market at some point. If stocks and commodities then sell off, the dollar will rise. I doubt very much the dollar demise will happen overnight, or go smoothly in one direction.... but do think it will decline severely in the end.

 

Also, a new dollar carry trade, where investors are borrowing cheap and buying overseas [shorting the dollar, going long on other currencies], is having an impact on the dollar. imo this is a very risky trade. Of course, this has been promoted by the monetary authorities through QE and inflation expectations as they want a lower dollar.

 

But there is a danger here, as the adage says "be careful what you wish for". If the dollar went too low, and if the treasury market was in turn threatened... the Fed could likely engineer/ encourage a reversal in the market in order to salvage treasuries and the dollar. The dollar would then spike savagely. A black swan real possibility.

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Interesting comments from JT, which reflect comments made a few months ago by Nouriel Roubini, saying we have now seen the worst of the recession,

 

Does he mean we move from recess to depress?

 

If not, why not??

 

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Is goldline.co.uk reliable? They are offering some good prices on their sovereigns at the moment. Previously were much more expensive than CID.

 

CID may ba a few quid cheaper, but if you want to buy sovereigns and britannias, for example, goldline has a much better choice. Also you are buying from a long established U.K. dealer, which is the country's biggest refiner of PM's, you can store gold with them, as well as being able buy and sell in person, which you can not do with CID.

 

IMO the advantages of having an established buying/trading relationship with Baird & Co and supporting a U.K. company outweighs CID's slightly lower prices.

 

Also I would highly recommended you have a listen to the Commodity Watch Radio podcast, which Tony Baird is interviewed by Dominic Frisby. It will give you an indication of Tony Baird's knowledge of the gold and silver market and his high standards of integrity.

 

http://www.minesite.com/webcasts/commodity_watch_radio.html

 

The podcast is entitled - A Healthy Dose Of Reality? Tony Baird Of Baird And Co - 19th November 2008

 

Which is also currently number 24 on the list in pod bean window on the above web page.

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I don't think he's ever changed his long term view that things are getting worse, irrespective of what shape the recovery takes. However, I'm starting to wonder if he was drawing the distinction between a nominal recovery and a `real` recovery. If the stock market doesn't fold in the next 2-3 weeks, my inflationary expectations are going to go through the roof. Didn't Swervin Mervin say inflation would be volatile over the next 6 months?

 

It certainly makes me wonder what they know and they hope I don't...

 

Does he mean we move from recess to depress?

 

If not, why not??

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Didn't Swervin Mervin say inflation would be volatile over the next 6 months?

He knows that 2.5% price inflation is baked in the cake with the VAT rise on 1st January, for a start.

 

 

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The same is happening with the ^FTSE, so this isn't just a dollar event. IMO the rise in PM's is not seasonal trading, I've been having similar thoughts for the last couple of months, so I'm curious what's driving seemingly `all markets` higher on weak volume?

 

imo the stock market is rising because of a weak dollar leaving the more discerning of traders mystified. I wonder though if continued weakness in the real economy will overwhelm the stock market at some point. If stocks and commodities then sell off, the dollar will rise. I doubt very much the dollar demise will happen overnight, or go smoothly in one direction.... but do think it will decline severely in the end.

 

Also, a new dollar carry trade, where investors are borrowing cheap and buying overseas [shorting the dollar, going long on other currencies], is having an impact on the dollar. imo this is a very risky trade. Of course, this has been promoted by the monetary authorities through QE and inflation expectations as they want a lower dollar.

 

But there is a danger here, as the adage says "be careful what you wish for". If the dollar went too low, and if the treasury market was in turn threatened... the Fed could likely engineer/ encourage a reversal in the market in order to salvage treasuries and the dollar. The dollar would then spike savagely. A black swan real possibility.

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Stewart Thompson, Graceland Updates, on 321gold:

 

Stewart Thompson on 321gold

 

24. Should a new crew of fundsters begin adding a major short position into price weakness below 1000, the gold market would be absolutely primed for a possible near-vertical moonshot towards gold $1200, particularly should a dollar crisis event occur, like Jim Rogers is predicting. The current new longs being added this week in the COMEX market are very likely being done with paper profits margin from longs put on last week. If you buy 1 gold contract at 950, and it goes to 1020, you have a $7000 profit. The banksters will then let you use that $7000 to buy another contract or even two. Then may also offer you a loan to buy even more, if you are a fundster. The fundsters feel fantastic right now with thousands of such longs, but they are playing with fire. The fundsters believe they can get out quickly if gold starts to decline. The problem is this a game of musical chairs. And the bankers own the hall. There is no way in a billion years the bankers are going to be so willing to take the other side of the fundsters' trades on the buy side if they all hit the exit button at the same time. Let me ask you this: Who is going to buy the fundsters' positions when they hit the sell button in a margin call situation? Answer: The banksters will buy, but they will offer limited size bids to ensure price goes down. The very size of the gold market now, it's exponential growth in the past 3 weeks, means we have entered the new era of price volatility, and like an over-shaken bottle of coca cola, it's turning explosive!
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This is different: a full page advert on gold in todays Metro (free giveaway London) paper

 

- this time they are offering to sell you gold (not buy it off you). Usual gold bug arguments quoted - big % gains over recent years etc, losses in stock exchanges.

 

thumbnmail.png

 

to be balanced by Alphaville markets live

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/09/16...6/markets-live/

 

- reference to darker recesses of bulletin boards, paranoid gold bugs in tib foil hats who are quids in who can use their gold bars to club Zombies when the world ends :D

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CID may ba a few quid cheaper, but if you want to buy sovereigns and britannias, for example, goldline has a much better choice. Also you are buying from a long established U.K. dealer, which is the country's biggest refiner of PM's, you can store gold with them, as well as being able buy and sell in person, which you can not do with CID.

 

IMO the advantages of having an established buying/trading relationship with Baird & Co and supporting a U.K. company outweighs CID's slightly lower prices.

 

Also I would highly recommended you have a listen to the Commodity Watch Radio podcast, which Tony Baird is interviewed by Dominic Frisby. It will give you an indication of Tony Baird's knowledge of the gold and silver market and his high standards of integrity.

 

http://www.minesite.com/webcasts/commodity_watch_radio.html

 

The podcast is entitled - A Healthy Dose Of Reality? Tony Baird Of Baird And Co - 19th November 2008

 

Which is also currently number 24 on the list in pod bean window on the above web page.

 

Im sure Bairds are a great PM company. Their free forecasts are great BTW. The website is awful though, a messy layout. CID have a great website and online ordering is a easy, as is payment if you do it online. They ought to pull their finger out and get images of all the products on the website, as I have been put off buying things as I dont know what they look like. Bairds are slightly cheaper on some things. They also have various platinum and paladium items.

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just checking the difference between cid and bairds on price

 

and the cheapest sov I can find is£143 (cid) against £159 (bairds)

 

thats quite a difference especially when buying a few at a time

 

11 sovs and some change for the same price as 10

 

I usually buy from my bank in Germany (Sparkasse )

 

who are usually cheaper than either those 2

 

but recently they have become more expensive than cid

 

Its worth shopping around imo

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People fear what they don't know, don't understand. Most people don't own/know gold, and they certainly don't understand it. They also don't understand paper money, but at least they own it and use it (without any questions asked!) every day.

 

Yes thats very true. I've had a little in the past(edit:gold that is :lol: ) without realising why!

 

Still unsure and would never be so presumptous to say I fully understand now, for I don't, but thanks to people here, I acquired a further appetite from a feeling of self preservation and I do feel a little safer.

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Is goldline.co.uk reliable? They are offering some good prices on their sovereigns at the moment. Previously were much more expensive than CID.

Yes, They are great. Also look at http://www.hattongardenmetals.com/gold-coins.aspx

 

...

The website is awful though, a messy layout.

...

[You are right] You shouldn't let the website put your off. Ordering is quick and easy

 

...

I usually buy from my bank in Germany (Sparkasse )

...

Its worth shopping around imo

Have you used these guys? http://www.proaurum.de/

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CID may ba a few quid cheaper, but if you want to buy sovereigns and britannias, for example, goldline has a much better choice. Also you are buying from a long established U.K. dealer, which is the country's biggest refiner of PM's, you can store gold with them, as well as being able buy and sell in person, which you can not do with CID.

 

IMO the advantages of having an established buying/trading relationship with Baird & Co and supporting a U.K. company outweighs CID's slightly lower prices.

 

Also I would highly recommended you have a listen to the Commodity Watch Radio podcast, which Tony Baird is interviewed by Dominic Frisby. It will give you an indication of Tony Baird's knowledge of the gold and silver market and his high standards of integrity.

 

http://www.minesite.com/webcasts/commodity_watch_radio.html

 

The podcast is entitled - A Healthy Dose Of Reality? Tony Baird Of Baird And Co - 19th November 2008

 

Which is also currently number 24 on the list in pod bean window on the above web page.

 

Thanks everyone for the advice. Britainnias were actually cheaper on goldline.co.uk than CID over the last couple of days.

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I'm actually swapping some paper gold for physical (my first).

 

Views: small bars (20g, 50g) or coins?

 

If coins: sovereigns or krugers?

 

(UK Citizen, pay CGT)

 

I did that early this year, with some GM gold. It was before GM offered small bars. I bought Krugerrands with it. It was all that was available at the time in the quantity I was looking for.

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