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Guest Dramatic Exit

Gold Commercial Short Positions Hit All Time High, As Gold Spike Protection Team Keeps Very Busy

 

In addition to the EUR data in today's CFTC Commitment of Traders report, another data point that caught our eye is the record exposure in outright commercial shorts in gold: this week they hit an all time high of 450,950. It appears that last week the desire to suppress any gold breakouts was at historic highs, even as net commercial exposure hit a 2010 low of -282.6, just slightly higher than that seen in the second week of January. If even with this massive onslaught to keep gold low by the LBMA, the precious metal managed to nearly hit $1,250 today, what will happen to gold when the 450k commercial positions are forced to cover?

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I saved the horror of the drop as I have decided to whenever I see a nice smackdown.

 

gold-smackdown.jpg

 

Most technical traders say that once a pattern in a stock has become widely recognised it invalidates the pattern as people anticipate and thus destroy that action or something along those lines. And yet we see this pattern time and time again. Now I am no conspiracy theorist but wtf is going on! Surely even the most hardened skeptic must see something isn't right here?

 

Retail bullion being cleaned out and yet spot price getting smacked down?

 

Demand outstripping supply = lower prices :blink:

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CGNAOs call of £900/toz for this leg up is looking a lot more likely suddenly.

 

cg is fundamental he knows collapse will happen soon and suddenly but not when.

 

An economic arrangement can continue for quite some time after it becomes untenable, through sheer inertia. But at some point a tide of broken promises and invalidated assumptions sweeps it all out to sea. Demitri Orlov

 

 

Could it be that gold is facing resistance at 1000 euros like it did at $1000?

 

I expect so, the Euro remains important

 

I saved the horror of the drop as I have decided to whenever I see a nice smackdown.

Obviously those here will know the demand is hellishly strong for "consumer" physical.

Most dealers are either out of small silver/gold products or have dwindling stocks.

 

 

Ominously:

COMEX gold open interest rises to all-time high

 

 

gold-smackdown.jpg

 

This sort of graph does not not worry me at all - it has happened so many times before, i would have thought the professional traders must feel the same

 

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The Tom O'brien's gold top call interview can be seen here:

 

http://www.tfnn.com/cnbc.php

 

He thinks we are headed to $1075

 

He also thinks "the dollar is the best fiat currency out there"

 

I'm not trading this but will be buying with both hands should we hit his target.

 

Time will tell but personally I think the crash of 2008 is still very raw for those who were long gold at the time and they are very jittery about going through a repeat of that. That wall of worry is still massively in the gold communities mind. Fair play but I'm more in the Hoye/Skarika/Sinclair camp and can just as easily see us hitting fresh highs.

 

 

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okay. been travelling for a few weeks and last time I checked GM, gold was around £750/oz.

 

Just got an awful shock -- £846 -- ?! wtf?

 

It's not like I have been living under a rock. I have noted the recent price rises in $$. Seeing this ££ just now though. . . whoa. It really does crystallise just how badly the pound is doing.

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The Tom O'brien's gold top call interview can be seen here:

 

http://www.tfnn.com/cnbc.php

 

He thinks we are headed to $1075

 

He also thinks "the dollar is the best fiat currency out there"

 

I'm not trading this but will be buying with both hands should we hit his target.

 

Time will tell but personally I think the crash of 2008 is still very raw for those who were long gold at the time and they are very jittery about going through a repeat of that. That wall of worry is still massively in the gold communities mind. Fair play but I'm more in the Hoye/Skarika/Sinclair camp and can just as easily see us hitting fresh highs.

Could even go to 3 digits, but I don't think I'll bother selling any gold as my main aim is to accumulate gold.

 

The alternative is to have a decent dollar hedge. I've kept a good dollar position, and will buy both gold and silver on deleveraging. Gold to continue accumulating, and silver to trade back to dollars on its recovery.

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Every time I buy gold I think that I am a fool to buy at the top but then I remember that is really a currency not just a commodity.

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According to my spreadsheet, the ratio peaked on 20-Feb-09. The 200DMA was £502.42 and the PoG was (PM Fix) £690.35 -- a ratio of 1.374 or so. (I actually sold on 19-Feb when the ratio was 1.365.)

 

I get sterling gold data from 24hgold.com

 

http://www.24hgold.com/english/interactive...lecom=valelivre

 

However, it only provides 200dma as a line on a chart and does not give a figure for 200dma which is therefore open to error from reading the chart and trying to estimate the 200dma.

 

Ologhai,

 

Where do you get your sterling gold 200dma figures from?

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'Wow' is all I can add to that graph, certainly puts it in perspective. Goldfinger, that will have to be one of your regulars also...

Nice chart. Now we would only have to understand what it shows.

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And yet we see this pattern time and time again. Now I am no conspiracy theorist but wtf is going on! Surely even the most hardened skeptic must see something isn't right here?

Why don't you have a look at the Approximity Charts that prove the whole Spiel: they describe what you lose on average over 20 days when you hold gold from London AM to PM. :) And that while prices increased many 100%.

 

Gold_USD_AMPM.png

Gold_USD_AMPM.png

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An economic arrangement can continue for quite some time after it becomes untenable, through sheer inertia. But at some point a tide of broken promises and invalidated assumptions sweeps it all out to sea. Demitri Orlov

Very nicely put.

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Just amusing myself at CoinInvestDirect and notice the 1/20th of oz coins currently selling for just over £50. Anyone have one of these? They must be incy-wincy! I'd be scared of losing down the back of the sofa. Are they too small ever to be realistically used as coinage?

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I've just followed your link to you-know-where and reminded myself why I don't go there anymore. If a post made today has 3 pages of comments already how can you ever expect to learn anything - there is just so much noise and activity!

 

I like it here. Nice and calm...

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Oh dear... the level of skepticism and frankly ignorance about gold shows we have quite some ways to go till we reach anything close to a bubble.

 

Now that we are holding solidly above $1000 I wonder if Paul Hill at moneyweek now thinks we are not in a bubble? :lol:

 

Turkey of the week: victim of the gold bubble

 

the gold price has failed to consolidate above the $1,000 an ounce barrier – a sure-fire sign that prices are way out of kilter with fundamentals

 

RGLD tipped a sell at 40 now trading at 50 oh dear....

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For amusement only.

 

Anyone remember the insufferable Hamish McTavish on HPC? - He now lords it on MSE.

 

Here is his view on PM's in response to question about his portfolio,

(from a thread he started saying that garlic was a better investment than gold).

Just scroll to the last sentence for a classic Hamish dismissal of the subject.

 

I don't really gamble on commodities. Blue chip equities, cash and property for me. But then my investment horizon is decades, not a few months. I'll take the odd punt on something that looks undervalued from time to time, in any category, but I'm more a buy and hold investor.

 

We do have small amounts of physical gold and silver, a few ounces of gold and a couple of large bars of silver, bought a decade ago when we lived overseas. The two bars of silver are currently used as paperweights on our desks at home.

 

The gold is in a safety deposit box and will be given to our nephews and neices when they graduate from Uni. Only worth a grand or two for each of them, but something they'll probably appreciate.

 

But they are novelty items.

 

Useful only for mildly distracting chat at dinner parties, much like our art or persian rugs. Nice enough, but not particularly valuable, nor anything worth evaluating on a regular basis other than for insurance purposes.

 

If the SHTF I'd be stocking up on ammo and salt..... Useful things.

 

And physical shiny metal is not really an especially credible part of a portfolio, for the reasons I outlined earlier. A very minor hedge against, well, being invaded by gold bugs or something, perhaps. But no more than that.

 

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showth...9375&page=2

 

 

 

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For amusement only.

 

Anyone remember the insufferable Hamish McTavish on HPC? - He now lords it on MSE.

 

Here is his view on PM's in response to question about his portfolio,

(from a thread he started saying that garlic was a better investment than gold).

Just scroll to the last sentence for a classic Hamish dismissal of the subject.

 

 

 

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showth...9375&page=2

 

A fool is a fool but I do worry about people who are naive about economics but are concerned about the future being influenced by articles like this.

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A fool is a fool but I do worry about people who are naive about economics but are concerned about the future being influenced by articles like this.

Yep which is why folks like yourself and many others on here are doing such a great job opening folks eyes. Keep up the good work folks.

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Yep which is why folks like yourself and many others on here are doing such a great job opening folks eyes. Keep up the good work folks.

 

 

I think there is a good balance here - some very knowledgeable posters, some 'ordinary' people that have taken an interest in economics due to their own personal circumstances (HPC etc). I think a newbie spending time on GEI would not go too far wrong.

 

It is not too cosy here however - for example many take umbrage with some of my views about modern history and private banking/ Rothschilds - but when everyone starts agreeing, it is time to look elsewhere.

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Nice chart. Now we would only have to understand what it shows.

 

Indeed, the scales involved are a bit of a mystery. This is a better chart that illustrates the point more clearly:

 

DR%204_0.jpg

 

 

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+2^10

 

Don't change your approach DoctorSolar, you're doing the right thing!

 

The risks just look way too great for my tastes regardless of what the technicals are saying.

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CGNAOs call of £900/toz for this leg up is looking a lot more likely suddenly.

Already well over 900GBP for physical.

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It's happening now... why anyone would trade this is beyond me.

 

Put your charts away. No chart is going tell you what is about to happen. The fear in streets will become intense.

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Just amusing myself at CoinInvestDirect and notice the 1/20th of oz coins currently selling for just over £50. Anyone have one of these? They must be incy-wincy! I'd be scared of losing down the back of the sofa. Are they too small ever to be realistically used as coinage?

 

IMO unless things get really messed up Gold is never going to be used as Coinage at ground level (public) again.

 

Now, a paper/digital currency backed by a percentage of Gold/Silver is a much different story (for a time at least). Maybe not so much silver, it's uses in our hi-tec world are far too important for it to just sit around. I think silvers true value as a precious metal is about to be realised.

 

This is what TPTB are good at...they make the rules. The current money system crashes...they make the rules for the next one.

 

The rest, as they say, is history!

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