Steve Netwriter Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 Hmmm, just realised it's March. Is there a pre April sell-off for capital gains reasons ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 I wonder what you guys think about that. Got a link to the thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 Sorry, should have posted the link: http://forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/ind...0&start=900 Best to start at the top of that page. This is one good post: Re: Another question: Why is gold and silver tanking so rapidely? http://itulip.com/forums/showpost.php?p=31...mp;postcount=20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 Got a link to the thread? Oy, you turned bear ? :blink: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 Oy, you turned bear ? :blink: Nah, just found the picture yesterday and thought he looked cute. He might get steamrollered later in the year but I'm not very good at computer graphics, will have to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 I wonder what the cartel might do today in New York and London. It didn't recover much in Asian trading overnight, $936.90 now. They could go for an almighty smackdown, maybe below 900, and frighten the bejeepers out of people. Then again they might try a protracted approach of repeatedly letting it rise to $1000 then smacking down. A few weeks of that could wear people down. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 Interesting situation being lined up here. There's a lot of money on the sidelines waiting to buy at the best moment, I'm trying to think where it will be deployed for maximum gain to the big boys. I think there will be an inevitable attempt to knock the stops at $900 out within the next few days. For $900 to be breached there will probably be big volume, which in turn should send gold even lower, but on lighter volume in a repeat of the patterns we've seen over the last few days. At this point the clever shorts are likely to be getting ready for an exit, rather than risk 'a bridge too far' attempt at $850. If I were a big player, I'd want to catch the lowest price possible without allowing permanent chart damage. To do this I'd probably surrender $900, this will allow more weak longs to get knocked out and suck in dumb, overconfident shorts. I'd then wait for the volume to thin out and start to buy big, overwhelming the weak down move volume and moving the price back up. To then minimise the risk of a serious assault on the $850 support I'd place the biggest buy orders to defend the old 'angel' at $887 on the way back up. This would signal a line in the sand to the big shorts, who won't like the fact that they'd have to win a hard fought battle to even reach $850 and should then take profits. Cue a brutally fast dumb short barbecue, with the added bonus of the smaller longs jumping back in, producing a confidence building upmove which will feed itself. Et voila, chart damage avoided, big boys sat on big profits both long and short, and most importantly, little resistance to a retest of the old highs. Of course the down side is a quick 'brown trousers' session as we dip below the $887 angel, but that's where the shorts will be at their weakest, dumbest and most ready to take profits. Just a theory, but I thought I'd chuck it out there for general ridicule by my esteemed colleagues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 20, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 This is the sound of margin calls made worse by the market realising that we are in deflationary spiral. It still has a very long way to fall. Let's not forget, we're still talking $900 gold here, which the deflationistas thought was impossible. Same for $100 oil. The deflation talk in commoditities is b0ll0cks IMO. Oh, and by the way: you can't buy physical on margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Member100 Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 If it's good enough for Jim Sinclair, it's cheap enuff for me! I'm buying here: $ 928.5 - my first gold punt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 This is the sound of margin calls made worse by the market realising that we are in deflationary spiral. It still has a very long way to fall. Thanks for that adelaide. I assume you're recommending dollars then, or better still, treasuries giving returns below inflation. I hope the 6 month wait you had to endure before being able to make a 'doom for gold' post like this was worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Thyme Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 Does anyone here really believe that the Fed is done cutting rates and therefore "getting tough on inflation" ? What else is in the Fed's armoury ? I mean, they're down to 2.25% - can they really revisit Greenspan's 1% and, if so, for how long ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 Interesting situation being lined up here. There's a lot of money on the sidelines waiting to buy at the best moment, I'm trying to think where it will be deployed for maximum gain to the big boys. I think there will be an inevitable attempt to knock the stops at $900 out within the next few days. For $900 to be breached there will probably be big volume, which in turn should send gold even lower, but on lighter volume in a repeat of the patterns we've seen over the last few days. At this point the clever shorts are likely to be getting ready for an exit, rather than risk 'a bridge too far' attempt at $850. If I were a big player, I'd want to catch the lowest price possible without allowing permanent chart damage. To do this I'd probably surrender $900, this will allow more weak longs to get knocked out and suck in dumb, overconfident shorts. I'd then wait for the volume to thin out and start to buy big, overwhelming the weak down move volume and moving the price back up. To then minimise the risk of a serious assault on the $850 support I'd place the biggest buy orders to defend the old 'angel' at $887 on the way back up. This would signal a line in the sand to the big shorts, who won't like the fact that they'd have to win a hard fought battle to even reach $850 and should then take profits. Cue a brutally fast dumb short barbecue, with the added bonus of the smaller longs jumping back in, producing a confidence building upmove which will feed itself. Et voila, chart damage avoided, big boys sat on big profits both long and short, and most importantly, little resistance to a retest of the old highs. Of course the down side is a quick 'brown trousers' session as we dip below the $887 angel, but that's where the shorts will be at their weakest, dumbest and most ready to take profits. Just a theory, but I thought I'd chuck it out there for general ridicule by my esteemed colleagues. Geez it's quiet on here today ! Is everyone drowning their sorrows or suffering from the subsequent hangover ? marceau, very interesting. Thanks for that I'm looking to try and pick up a little more as near the bottom as I can Jim has been predicting $100 swings at these levels. So I guess it just takes golden balls to survive the ride Now, is the US shut for Good Friday and Easter Monday ? So Tuesday is the first day of interest ? Which makes me wonder whether the timing of this wasn't rather good. It leaves the goldbugs with a nice long weekend to feel bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 Nah, just found the picture yesterday and thought he looked cute. He might get steamrollered later in the year but I'm not very good at computer graphics, will have to see. Is it me, or have you added something to your avatar ? If so, what are you up to ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ologhai Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 Geez it's quiet on here today ! Is everyone drowning their sorrows or suffering from the subsequent hangover ? marceau, very interesting. Thanks for that I'm looking to try and pick up a little more as near the bottom as I can Probably like a lot of people, I too am being 'part of the problem' by waiting till I see firm rises in price before I spend any more money. I'm actually feeling pretty good, though. I'm finding it quite refreshing to feel in direct control of some invested money for a change (rather than just handing money over to some investment manager type character), and I'm interested to note that I don't feel distressed even now the prices have dropped/are dropping. I've handed over thousands in the past for multi-year investments (what one would have thought were fairly safe ones, too), and not even got my money back. At least if I don't get my money back over some years this time, it'll be my own doing, and, as I say, for some reason, that feels pleasantly different somehow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ologhai Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 Of course, I'm very new to this, but having watched the charts a bit over the last couple of days, I've seen that the drops in gold's price seem to have been matched quite closely to drops in silver. I don't just mean that they've both fallen, but when I notice a particular drop (or recovery) in gold's price, then check the silver chart, that silver just did the same thing. Is gold and silver activity often this closely synchronised, or are they usually more independent? Does their current apparently closely related movements indicate anything? Edited: To take the apostrophe out of 'drop's'... *blushes* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 20, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 Seems my after-Easter purchase could become very cheap. Love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ologhai Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 How can the silver price drop by nearly $2/oz., when all these reports come in saying that the dealers are sold out, or nearly out, of physical silver? This is the clearest evidence of paper short selling manipulation that I've ever seen since I started watching the silver market back in 1999, and I've seen a lot of evidence! http://www.silverstockreport.com/2008/crunch.html. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Thyme Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 There has to be some sort of central bank intervention going on in the currency markets. How the hell is the dollar gaining on the dollar after a 75bps cut ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!) Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 There has to be some sort of central bank intervention going on in the currency markets. How the hell is the dollar gaining on the dollar after a 75bps cut ? Hmm stocks overvalued, gold going down, nowhere to hide - better buy US$ then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!) Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 Hmm stocks overvalued, gold going down, nowhere to hide - better buy US$ then think i will be buying some more silver today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 Probably like a lot of people, I too am being 'part of the problem' by waiting till I see firm rises in price before I spend any more money. I'm actually feeling pretty good, though. I'm finding it quite refreshing to feel in direct control of some invested money for a change (rather than just handing money over to some investment manager type character), and I'm interested to note that I don't feel distressed even now the prices have dropped/are dropping. I've handed over thousands in the past for multi-year investments (what one would have thought were fairly safe ones, too), and not even got my money back. At least if I don't get my money back over some years this time, it'll be my own doing, and, as I say, for some reason, that feels pleasantly different somehow! I don't know whether I'm normal or odd. I'm afraid I get very upset when the price goes up. While it's not moving much, or better still dipping nicely, I have what I think of as good buying opportunities. When I see the price shoot up, I hate it. That means I have to pay more While big dips like this are not exactly nice when you've already bought, they are much more interesting, and do offer that extra good deal I remember reading an article ages ago which said "the cartel knock the price several times a year, so take the opportunity to stock up at those times". I know how you feel. That's why I've never been keen on any government run/controlled investment scheme. You have little control, and thy change the rules as they like. Gosh, it just bounced off $905 ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Pipples Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 wulfgar on GHPC has been predicting a fall for the middle of the year. I don't post much on that thread. He seems to know exactly what is going to happen, which doesn't leave much room for debate. Today he said: http://forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/ind...0&start=900 I wonder what you guys think about that. Wulfgar goes on to say: Oh my Koala's, I haven't even liquidated yet! Gold in reality is only worth about 750 USD at the moment. So recent prices have been as much 33% above true market value. Gold bugs have emerged as significant buying force and the dangerous element for the banking cartel is goldbuggery is price driven like commodity gold. However it is mainly the long arm of the central banks that have sent gold into the overpriced territory. Over the past 6 months they would have aquired a 500 ton reserve. So is this the point where they start bashing gold and send it down? Somehow I'd disinclined to see this as the point. I expect them to build an even larger reserve, so they can bash gold for a longer period of time. So I'd be expecting strong gold prices for another couple of months. What do you guys think of that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 Of course, I'm very new to this, but having watched the charts a bit over the last couple of days, I've seen that the drops in gold's price seem to have been matched quite closely to drop's in silver. I don't just mean that they've both fallen, but when I notice a particular drop (or recovery) in gold's price, then check the silver chart, that silver just did the same thing. Is gold and silver activity often this closely synchronised, or are they usually more independent? Does their current apparently closely related movements indicate anything? Hmmm, kinda suspicious ain't it Just normal market forces. Maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexreeve Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 GBP will shortly bounce and the yellow shiny stuff I can't mention is just about to be hammered. Accept the gift and get your place on the lifeboat. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...15&start=15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 http://www.silverstockreport.com/2008/crunch.html. This reminds me of an old shopkeepers joke. "I keep telling my customers, there's no demand" :lol: Brilliant link. Cheers It seems obvious to me. Th basic laws of supply and demand have been reversed. Now the demand is outstripping supply, the price must fall. Who is responsible for changing a basic economic law ? Bring me the head of the Fed :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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