G0ldfinger Posted March 19, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 19, 2008 There are a lot of reasons why the market tanked today. I know, I know, gold tanked massively more, but keep in mind how tiny the market is. The plunge of the DJIA is the bigger event today. Gloomberg headlines: * Merrill Sues XL Capital Assurance to Force Guarantee of $3 Billion of CDOs * Three-Month Bill Rates Plunge to Lowest Level Since 1958 on Credit Concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted March 19, 2008 Report Share Posted March 19, 2008 I was just about to buy more silver thru GoldMoney but realised they chuck a buck on the price of an ounce. I mean, spot rate was $18.86 and they wanted $19.96 Considering I was gonna pick up a tousand ounces, that's $900 or £450 . . . no way Jose I don't remember them being so pricey when I bought silver thru them initially. Anyone know any other way to buy silver . . . apart from an ETF ? I have written down: Silver = 5.25% for <£6k, 4.99% for more. Better than a lot of places. I've heard of 18% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pluto Posted March 19, 2008 Report Share Posted March 19, 2008 I have written down: Silver = 5.25% for <£6k, 4.99% for more. I suspect the Gold sell off is due to T-bill yields sinking. This could be because the bond market does not believe the Feds action are going to result in more inflation. Ben's fight right now is to get inflation going, if not the bond and gold markets could be signaling an impending crash in the equity markets. Either way, cash under the mattress and gold in your possession are your only safe bets. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EIRX&...&q=l&c= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted March 19, 2008 Report Share Posted March 19, 2008 IG Index has raised margin requirements on Banks and Commodities Now the cynic in me feels this might be a directive from up above to reduce the number of people shorting the banks but I guess it could be own to their explanation and the increased volatility we are seeing. City index has done the same. I think this will only increase as the months go on, all part of the deleveraging process, same thing that is happening to mortgages. It stinks really, the little guy, regardless of solvency, is denied access to funds while the less-than-solvent big guys get infinite pots of cash to play with. All, of course, funded by the little guy's taxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 NEARLY THERE ... "support near $930" : update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 I suspect the Gold sell off is due to T-bill yields sinking. This could be because the bond market does not believe the Feds action are going to result in more inflation. Ben's fight right now is to get inflation going, if not the bond and gold markets could be signaling an impending crash in the equity markets. Either way, cash under the mattress and gold in your possession are your only safe bets. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EIRX&...&q=l&c= If this is true, then Bernanke badly miscalculated that last cut. As you say, the markets will simply fold if they think the Fed can't whip up an inflationary storm. What other reason is there to invest in equities at the moment? There's no more growth to be wrung out of the system, so there's no such thing as value investing available in any sector. It's deflation or inflation. Death or glory. There is nothing to support any middle ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narco Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 I suspect the Gold sell off is due to T-bill yields sinking. This could be because the bond market does not believe the Feds action are going to result in more inflation. Ben's fight right now is to get inflation going, if not the bond and gold markets could be signaling an impending crash in the equity markets. Either way, cash under the mattress and gold in your possession are your only safe bets. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EIRX&...&q=l&c= I think many investors believe that the fed have run out of bullets. They'll be proven wrong soon enough when they start physically buying anything that remotely looks like toxic paper. Keep buying gold, especially on corrections. Cash under the matress is fine... But only in the short term. I wish I followed this advice the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 NEARLY THERE ... "support near $930" : update Bubb, I notice the monster volume on this move. Did it lighten up significantly below $950, or was there heavy selling right up to the NY close? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 Bubb, I notice the monster volume on this move. Did it lighten up significantly below $950, or was there heavy selling right up to the NY close? you are right. The really huge vollume was in early going (as stops got hit?) the big volume is worrying me. that's why I think it is an A wave, with a B up to come, followed by a C, which should be accompanied by lighter volume If volume contines strong, and it breaks $930, watch out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pluto Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 I think many investors believe that the fed have run out of bullets. They'll be proven wrong soon enough when they start physically buying anything that remotely looks like toxic paper. Keep buying gold, especially on corrections. Cash under the matress is fine... But only in the short term. I wish I followed this advice the other day. I agree, deflation in not an option for the Fed. However, the bond market are going under the assumption that the TAF, TSLF, and the PDCF aren't going to solve the solvency problem, and indeed the Fed are running out of options. The slashing of interest rates this week by 1% should have seen the gold and bond yields go higher, when infact the opposite happened. Targeting interest rates doesn't seem to do anything anymore as mortgage rates in the US are now higher than before the rate cuts started. We need to keep an eye on the bond markets in the coming days. If bond yields continue to decline and gold corrects further I would say we in for a CRASH of the equity markets. Time to take out some puts me thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pluto Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 If this is true, then Bernanke badly miscalculated that last cut. As you say, the markets will simply fold if they think the Fed can't whip up an inflationary storm. What other reason is there to invest in equities at the moment? There's no more growth to be wrung out of the system, so there's no such thing as value investing available in any sector. It's deflation or inflation. Death or glory. There is nothing to support any middle ground. The equity markets are being supported by Fed actions and not company fundamentals. That is why bubblevision talk about the Fed all day and what they are going to do next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 you are right. the huge volume is worrying me. that's why I think it is an A wave, with a B up to come, followed by a C, which should be accompanied by lighter volume If volume contines strong, and it breaks $930, watch out! Thanks Bubb, pretty much my thought on it as well. I hopped out of RGLD by the way, just below $31. The dividend announcement held it up, and it was just too much of a gift to refuse when I looked at gold, which was crashing through support levels like a cannon ball. I'm on standby to get back in once I'm more certain of gold's direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narco Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 Aye. Think i'll just sit this one out on the sidelines. You're probably right that gold may also pull back untill we have firmer indication of how the fed is going to provide even further liquidity. They could still take rates down to zero. We're teetering on an equity crash for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pluto Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 Aye. Think i'll just sit this one out on the sidelines. You're probably right that gold may also pull back untill we have firmer indication of how the fed is going to provide even further liquidity. They could still take rates down to zero. We're teetering on an equity crash for sure. ZIRP as the Japs had doesn't necessary provide more inflation. This was about liquidity, but has now turned into a solvency problem, which I think the bond market is sniffing. If the bond market is right we are in for one humdinger of a crash. Stay in Gold and cash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 20, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 $100 down in two days. Not too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 20, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 Is this some central bank action we're seeing here? Kicking it in the back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 $100 down in two days. Not too bad. Yep, gold's tickling $930 now. It's not looking especially good at the moment. I can see us retracing back to $945 tomorrow before an attempt to smash lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narco Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 $100 down in two days. Not too bad. I think Pluto is right.. Possibly something serious in the next few days. Possibly a major bank run type of event leading to a serious 1929 / 1987 stock market collapse? Something is up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 Is this some central bank action we're seeing here? Kicking it in the back? Just our asian friends playing the trend probably. They think it's a fairly safe bet that we'll see a push lower in NY tomorrow, so they don't think they have much to lose by joining the shorts for a day or so. Of course, a holiday weekend, coupled with quadruple witching, can throw up all sorts of weird results, so they could get burned pretty badly. I won't trade at all tomorrow, I've had bad experiences around holiday periods in the market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 20, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 Alright, then. $919. I can't believe I will possibly be able to buy in the $800s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 Bloody hell, they just took out $920. Something must be happening to have caused that kind of move. Either way, confidence is shot to pieces, so I think a test of $900 is very likely now. This is the way the best corrections happen, short and sharp, no hanging around for weeks like in 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 Is this some central bank action we're seeing here? Kicking it in the back? Any news about IMF gold sales? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pluto Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 I think Pluto is right.. Possibly something serious in the next few days. Possibly a major bank run type of event leading to a serious 1929 / 1987 stock market collapse? Something is up. There is flight to treasuries, which has caused the 3m yield to dive, the commodity market is selling off, the equity market is selling off, an internet poster caused sterling to lose 250bps and HBOS to dive 20%. All this after 1% cut in rates and one of the largest investment banks being gifted to JPM. No something is up and we need to keep an eye on all markets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 20, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 ... Of course, a holiday weekend, coupled with quadruple witching, can throw up all sorts of weird results, so they could get burned pretty badly. I won't trade at all tomorrow, I've had bad experiences around holiday periods in the market. If I have the funds tomorrow, I'll definitely buy some gold and silver coins. The larger part I will have to transfer to GM and BV, so, it will take me longer to buy more, i.e. I will average in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 ZIRP as the Japs had doesn't necessary provide more inflation. This was about liquidity, but has now turned into a solvency problem, which I think the bond market is sniffing. If the bond market is right we are in for one humdinger of a crash. Stay in Gold and cash. Or if you like risk, go short on financials, builders and retailers in the recently resurrected DOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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