GOLD

[Crashman begins]

Go to Tesco.com & look at a link on the bottom right of the page

 

Its to do with GOLD

[G0ldfinger]

Essentially, when taking the London AM Fixing as a measure, there has been no correction in gold whatsoever. We are just stagnating here, possibly moving much higher soon.

 

As for silver, the Fixing shows a 3% "correction". For silver, that's a joke. I fear we will move much higher very soon.

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since2010/Gold_USD.html

[G0ldfinger]

Oil seems very inexpensive here and could easily double. On average, it has been 30% more expensive than now, and that was without peak oil around the corner.

 

[Perishabull]

The problem with this chart is it's linear [i have to say I'm surprised you're still using linear charts]. If gold was to continue strengthening at around say 20% a year that chart would soon look parabolic.

 

 

Another problem with the linear chart is it gives the appearance of more volatility than there actually really is.... not to mention giving the appearance that a good sized correction is imminent. The bullish will expect a further parabolic rise, the bearish will expect a large correction.

 

I don't want to reopen this debate however I think the issue here has been with the perhaps mis-perceived use of the word problem, or it could be the mis-use of the word problem, more likely a bit of both here. Only a fool would dispute that Pixel8r has been anything other than bang on the money with his call. Romans holiday makes a very acute point about linear versus log since viewed in linear it looks precarious whereas in log it is anything but. This is a very important point since the vast majority of those looking at charts will be looking at linear and therefore will be more prone to making judgements as to whether it is bearish or bullish. Put a log chart in front of them and all becomes clear. I find it very interesting that the same information illustrated in slightly different ways can have this effect.

[romans holiday]

I don't want to reopen this debate however I think the issue here has been with the perhaps mis-perceived use of the word problem, or it could be the mis-use of the word problem, more likely a bit of both here. Only a fool would dispute that Pixel8r has been anything other than bang on the money with his call. Romans holiday makes a very acute point about linear versus log since viewed in linear it looks precarious whereas in log it is anything but. This is a very important point since the vast majority of those looking at charts will be looking at linear and therefore will be more prone to making judgements as to whether it is bearish or bullish. Put a log chart in front of them and all becomes clear. I find it very interesting that the same information illustrated in slightly different ways can have this effect.

Thanks P, agree with everything you wrote there. This is an important and objective issue imo.

 

The log chart is crucial for the longer term view of gold. The long term trend is plain for all to see... no bubble, no sudden destruction of the dollar.... just a steady strengthening against all currencies.

 

Lets face it, gold seems a difficult buy for anyone here. This long term log provides one hell of a good objective reason to buy for those nervous about their life savings being in one particular currency.

 

Looking at the trend on the log chart, I'm starting to think gold is over stretched a little with a good chance of a correction. Since I started using the log chart [thanks Steve Netwriter] I have been consistently bullish this year even at points when there has been some bearish calls along the lines of Tom O'Brien etc. But looking at the log now, gold is starting to look due a correction.

 

 

[romans holiday]

Here is an example of how using a linear chart can give a false signal. A good year or so back when gold rose quickly to 1100 or so, it looked to me it could easily correct back to the 3 digit range on the [false] trend line:

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=151250

 

It's quite interesting to look at posts going back a year or so. I noticed this linear chart.

 

 

 

 

Notice how the use of a log chart gives quite a different picture:

 

 

 

 

It wasn't long after I became convinced of the importance of using a log chart. Through the course of this year gold has tracked closely to this long term trend, and accordingly I haven't been "bearish". Looking at the log chart now, it is starting to look over stretched.

[warpig]

Why don't you start another thread, this topic of linear/log is too disruptive and it's boring... We all know the difference and are adult enough to choose our own charting style.

[romans holiday]

Why don't you start another thread, this topic of linear/log is too disruptive and it's boring...

Oh dear. The discussion of log/ linear is disruptive/boring?? Perhaps you want to say I am disruptive/ boring I wouldn't want to bore anyone.

 

It's absolutely crucial for working out the long term trend.... but then if you think the dollar is just going to blow up tomorrow...

[Schaublin]

Log vs linear is simple enough to grasp and only needs mentioning occasionally for the benefit of newbies. You do seem to be making an inordinately long meal of it.

[warpig]

The reason you wind people up is because you keep repeating yourself. It's like you're trying to brainwash me through repetition... Honestly... we get your point, but I am entitled to my own opinion... No really I am! Can we please move on?

 

Oh dear. The discussion of log/ linear is boring??

 

It's absolutely crucial for working out the long term trend.... but then if you think the dollar is just going to blow up tomorrow....

[romans holiday]

Log vs linear is simple enough to grasp and only needs mentioning occasionally for the benefit of newbies. You do seem to be making an inordinately long meal of it.

Perhaps, but that is because I haven't written off the dollar. If one writes of the dollar, it doesn't really matter whether one uses a log or linear chart because both will just "go to the moon". If instead you give the dollar its dues, then the differnece between the charts is crucial.

 

Are there any posters here who want to see a discussion on gold going beyond the ravings of hyper-inflationists?

[romans holiday]

The reason you wind people up is because you keep repeating yourself. It's like you're trying to brainwash me through repetition... Honestly... we get your point, but I am entitled to my own opinion... No really I am! Can we please move on?

Move on? There are other posters here who were interested in discussing log/ linear. If you don't want to join in that's fine. Who's the disruptive one here?

 

It seems to me this is a discusion that those convinced of hyper-inflation don't want to have. The log chart shows that the dollar is NOT going to blow up any time soon... no parabolas there.

[Schaublin]

Perhaps, but that is because I haven't written of the dollar. If one writes of the dollar, it doesn't really matter whether one uses a log or linear chart because both will just "go to the moon". If instead you give the dollar its dues, then the differnece between the charts is crucial.

 

Are there any posters here who want to see a discussion on gold going beyond the ravings of hyper-inflationists?

 

 

I think you have written of the dollar quite a bit - especially how much you like em and how you swapped your silver for em!

 

Ok, I know that was a typo but even so, Warpig does have a valid point about repetition brainwashing - thing is though, I still, after all this time on GEI, do not know your real position.

 

 

[warpig]

I'll put it in to plain English for you, you're obsessing over something I learned at the age of 14.

 

Please don't put words in my mouth.

 

Perhaps you want to say I am disruptive/ boring

 

[romans holiday]

I think you have written of the dollar quite a bit - especially how much you like em and how you swapped your silver for em!

 

Ok, I know that was a typo but even so, Warpig does have a valid point about repetition brainwashing - thing is though, I still, after all this time on GEI do not know your real position.

It's not that difficult. An internationalized version of Exter's triangle. I'll explain it again [or would that be repetitive ] on the next deflation scare in the markets.

[Schaublin]

It's not that difficult. An internationalized version of Exter's triangle. I'll explain it again [or would that be repetitive ] on the next deflation scare in the markets.

 

Are you sure you don't mean Roman's Bermuda Triangle?

[warpig]

It's you, but you can't see it.

 

Who's the disruptive one here?

 

[romans holiday]

It's you, but you can't see it.

You might be right. Perhaps it would be better to leave this thread to the "gold bugs"

[romans holiday]

Are you sure you don't mean Roman's Bermuda Triangle?

Nice.

[Perishabull]

What I see is this. There has been recent euphoria on this thread, it seems to be in the process of evaporating, leaving a void. Romans holiday may well be proved correct here with his dollar views and that it why I think he is the current target.

[carbon junkie]

Here is an example of how using a linear chart can give a false signal. A good year or so back when gold rose quickly to 1100 or so, it looked to me it could easily correct back to the 3 digit range on the [false] trend line:

 

It wasn't long after I became convinced of the importance of using a log chart. Through the course of this year gold has tracked closely to this long term trend, and accordingly I haven't been "bearish". Looking at the log chart now, it is starting to look over stretched.

You always used to post linear charts until me and others pulled you up on it some time ago.

 

Good to see you've taken the advice.

[romans holiday]

You always used to post linear charts until me and others pulled you up on it some time ago.

 

Good to see you've taken the advice.

Yes, excellent point. I soon saw the errors of my ways.

[romans holiday]

i'm going to make this my last post on the matter... unless that is others might want to discuss some of the points I've raised rationally. No point squabbling:

 

 

 

What I find about the main gold thread is a general lack of "context"... and a differentiation between short and long term calls on gold. A year ago when gold was at 1100, some thought, in the short term, it would correct/ consolidate back below a 1000, others thought it would blast up to 1400. In the medium/ long term near everyone [on the gold thread] was thinking it would head to 1400 and above.... myself included [i should admit that a year ago I didn't think gold would strengthen quite at the pace it has....I was labouring under the illusion of the long term trend on the linear chart.... duh].

 

And yet now a year later when gold has finally hit 1400, some think they were "right"... and presumably others were wrong. The reality is all were wrong and all were right; all were wrong in the short term because gold neither corrected to below 1000 nor did it explode up to 1400.... it tracked a middle course between these two extremes. All were right in the medium/ long term with gold finally arriving at 1400.... which was never in dispute.

 

I have to admit this lack of context to the conversation really "bugs" me.

 

Anyway, end of rant.

 

Probably the most central technical data point to my views on gold is the above blue line on the long term log chart. It denotes gold steadily strengthening against the reserve currency at around 20% a year. Gold is now continuing to correct/ consolidate as is predictable using that chart. imo it also shows the volatility of gold diminishing due no doubt to its monetization by investors and central banks.

[carbon junkie]

What I see is this. There has been recent euphoria on this thread, it seems to be in the process of evaporating, leaving a void. Romans holiday may well be proved correct here with his dollar views and that it why I think he is the current target.

The Fed stands ready to increase its quantative easing should market conditions prevail.

 

This is not 2008 NIRP and QE will see to that.

 

This is just a bit of G20 bullsh*t manipulation.

 

People are rarely targets because they might be right at some point in the future they are usually targets because they are spectacularly wrong in the present.

[carbon junkie]

Yes, excellent point. I soon saw the errors of my ways.

But have you done it gracefully?