electroweak Posted October 2, 2008 Report Share Posted October 2, 2008 From Jim Sinclair: Dear Extend Family, Unless the LIBOR rate drops sharply we are facing a planetary financial crisis next week. For God's sake protect yourself. Gold and gold related items will be the only true storehouses of wealth. The bailout bill is powerless to reverse what is now happening. This is a modern day Weimar happening right before our eyes. Respectfully yours, Jim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ret45 Posted October 2, 2008 Report Share Posted October 2, 2008 JS added this note.... Posted On: Thursday, October 02, 2008, 12:09:00 PM EST Protecting Your Financial Self - An Addition Author: Jim Sinclair Dear CIGAs, I have no doubt that $1650 will come. My concern is not that it will not happen, but that I am much too conservative in my long-term price objective since 2000. If major banks can be torn apart how can we have faith in the small local institutions that hold most of your ready cash? When I said “This is IT,” it is not something that I take lightly. Never in 49 years in finance have I seen a set of circumstances so challenging to the man in the street. What I am getting at is a simple question. Are you prepared? You have heard us talk repeatedly on removing financial intermediaries between you and your assets, but the time has come for us to recommend going one step further: Hold enough cash at your household to last you a month or two. It may be largely unnecessary for the majority, but what do you have to lose? If your bank should fail this will save you a lot of grief in the short term. If they do not, you still have all your cash that can easily be deposited back into your account. Regards, Jim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted October 2, 2008 Report Share Posted October 2, 2008 BBC have been running stories on gold today today. On radio2, after Jeremy Vines show on the two o'clock news, there was a short interview with Sandra Conway, manager of ATS. Click link below and forward to 2:00.00 after the northern cock story http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00dpq6j/ Radio4 also had some stories on PM at 17.55 approx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted October 2, 2008 Report Share Posted October 2, 2008 From Jim Sinclair: QUOTE Dear Extend Family, Unless the LIBOR rate drops sharply we are facing a planetary financial crisis next week. For God's sake protect yourself.... Guys and Gals.... Its not the deflationary scare, its not the 700B bale out about to be passed, it's just plain old fear driving all the moves today The extreme language and scare tactics being used by Paulson and Bernanke are creating a self-fulfilling prohecy: everyone has now got the idea of a global economic catastrophe in their head, and are starting to wonder if the 700B will be enough to save the day. Hence... - oil falling as speculators withdraw into cash, and as world expects a slowdown - stock markets tanked today as people rush to cash - gold sold to service margin calls - gold juniors being sold off as part of a massive exodus from risky small stocks - people pulling their overseas investments back home into USD, so strengthening that currency (think of this as the death throws!) The Paulson Plan was always a desperate and inflationary solution, but it had the advantage of being a proactive move and therefore psychologiaclly reassuring. But that one advantage has been lost by the delay and watering down of the bill (if it even passes). Now the sh$t really begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armchair Posted October 2, 2008 Report Share Posted October 2, 2008 BBC have been running stories on gold today today. On radio2, after Jeremy Vines show on the two o'clock news, there was a short interview with Sandra Conway, manager of ATS. Click link below and forward to 2:00.00 after the northern cock story http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00dpq6j/ Radio4 also had some stories on PM at 17.55 approx. Guy from Bullion Vault was also interviewed on the Chris Evans thing on Radio 2 this evening. The PM one had someone from the world gold council I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted October 2, 2008 Report Share Posted October 2, 2008 Perth mint website appears to be down to me.. www.perthmint.com.au EDIT: back up again now... (phew!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted October 2, 2008 Report Share Posted October 2, 2008 hey guys, check out this chart, very intersting stuff: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wanderer Posted October 2, 2008 Report Share Posted October 2, 2008 Hi all, Interesting action on gold today - and a big move down in the DOW. I have a sense (as set out by Robert Peston http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/ ) that the Dow is being sold out of fear but that Gold is being sold as certain investors try to free up funds to meet payments on CDS due as a result of Lehmans inc etc (due, apparently, in the next few weeks) - in much the same way as Lehmans itself was rumoured to have dumped a big position in gold before its' own demise. If the reports about rapidly increasing 'little guy' demand for gold etc. are true then presumably each of these waves involves gold being transferred from big investors (and possibly central banks if they have joined in the selling) to the 'little guy'. I'm thinking of it as pressure building up inside a tube. My current speculation is that at some point the pressure will give, gold will rise big time, bigger investors won't want to sell any more of the gold they retain and the price will shoot up. A 'trigger' (e.g. congressional failure to ratify the plan etc.) may initiate this, or it may happen of its own accord. The little guy will see the action, connect it to recent reports he's begun to hear in the mainstream media (thank you Radio 4 today, thank you Guardian) and seek to join in (too late as often usual). Until this point/in the meantime, choppiness will continue and my resolve will be tested!! (Do you see Rhodium today?!) I'm tempted to try and trade the ups and downs but fear that I'll make a hash of it is keeping me from doing so. Coming back to a previous theme, I'm still interested by the relation between 'events' and 'charts'. We all seem to agree that 'events' e.g. congress fail to ratify the bailout earlier this week, have a big impact on shares. But many here have put forward convincing chart-derived analysis - how do the two relate, since charts cannot, of course, predict 'events'....? W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwizzie Posted October 2, 2008 Report Share Posted October 2, 2008 I like the fact the price is showing some respect to the fib level. Could be good support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted October 2, 2008 Report Share Posted October 2, 2008 Guy from Bullion Vault was also interviewed on the Chris Evans thing on Radio 2 this evening. The PM one had someone from the world gold council I think. Do you remmeber what time Paul tustain, BV was on? I don't fancy having to listen to Evans to find it as he winds me up! There was various gold ramping on the news channels tonight too. This is no coincidence. Why are they all ramping gold? Seems contradictory to the repeated statements about how safe savers money is in the banks. I think that they will stimulate lots of gold buying by the public and then banks and hedge funds will be selling heaps of gold to cover their losses, causing the price of gold to tank. This will teach the sheep to trust their banks not gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dispassion Posted October 2, 2008 Report Share Posted October 2, 2008 today's gold: Good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisP Posted October 2, 2008 Report Share Posted October 2, 2008 another bad day for the junior mining shares....could this be a bottom (again)?....does this signal the start of the next up leg for the mining shares?....blah blah blah.... Face it guys. Your better of burning your notes to keep warm this winter. (note to self: be prepared for an almighty sh*t cart load of abuse if the mining stocks rally) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted October 2, 2008 Report Share Posted October 2, 2008 I'm tempted to try and trade the ups and downs but fear that I'll make a hash of it is keeping me from doing so. i don't recommend this, trading is a profession, if you want to trade you would need to learn first, like if you would go to school to become a doctor or layer .... Coming back to a previous theme, I'm still interested by the relation between 'events' and 'charts'. We all seem to agree that 'events' e.g. congress fail to ratify the bailout earlier this week, have a big impact on shares. But many here have put forward convincing chart-derived analysis - how do the two relate, since charts cannot, of course, predict 'events'....? W you will be surprised, but this has very little relationship, if it has any relationship at all. for example , at 9/11 , the dow went down but not because of the attack, but because it was completing a correction cycle. and then after few weeks it went up again. check out the documentary film on this site about how news & market cycles relate : http://www.socionomics.net/films/history/default.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dispassion Posted October 2, 2008 Report Share Posted October 2, 2008 another bad day for the junior mining shares....could this be a bottom (again)?....does this signal the start of the next up leg for the mining shares?....blah blah blah.... Face it guys. Your better of burning your notes to keep warm this winter. (note to self: be prepared for an almighty sh*t cart load of abuse if the mining stocks rally) Bear in mind that stocks trade as an integral of expected future profits and gold mining profits are intrinsically linked to the price of gold. The HUI's trading at about 0.32 of the price of gold, a multi year low and a 40 percent discount on the stable ratio over the last few years. This either means that gold mining stocks are very cheap or the gold bull is over, which one do you reckon it is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisP Posted October 2, 2008 Report Share Posted October 2, 2008 Bear in mind that stocks trade as an integral of expected future profits and gold mining profits are intrinsically linked to the price of gold. The HUI's trading at about 0.32 of the price of gold, a multi year low and a 40 percent discount on the stable price over the last few years. This either means that gold mining stocks are very cheap or the gold bull is over, which one do you reckon it is? I don't doubt that but surely owning the bullion is more sensible in a bear market like this one than hoping someone will see value is these miners who have escalating operating costs and difficulties obtaining funding? Seriously, does anyone here have the honesty to post their losses (in percentage terms) buying in to these juniors at each "bottom"? For disclosure: i'm 80+% down on Tyhee and 96% down on Northern Lion - the only two i still own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted October 2, 2008 Report Share Posted October 2, 2008 Adrian Ash from Bullion Vault on Chris Evans radio2. Quite a good listen http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00dpr3b/ forward to 27.30 mins into the program. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dispassion Posted October 2, 2008 Report Share Posted October 2, 2008 I don't doubt that but surely owning the bullion is more sensible in a bear market like this one than hoping someone will see value is these miners who have escalating operating costs and difficulties obtaining funding? Seriously, does anyone here have the honesty to post their losses (in percentage terms) buying in to these juniors at each "bottom"? For disclosure: i'm 80+% down on Tyhee and 96% down on Northern Lion - the only two i still own. I'm interested in reading anything that you've found regarding the part in bold. I've just done a quick search and found only very bullish articles on gold miners: http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2008...-greatness.aspx http://www.reuters.com/article/mergersNews...227298320081002 http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/bailout-b...old/2008/10/02/ This one's interesting: http://www.stockhouse.com/Columnists/2008/...nvestment-cycle In the long term: We have changed our long-term opinion of the precious metals markets. Our technical indicators now show possible long-term tops in gold and silver were put in place March 2008. Highs that are achieved in gold and silver over the next two years may well be identified as “bear market rally” highs. Prior to this, we were confident that new, all-time highs would be made in gold and silver and that mining shares would not top until January 2010 to April 2012. We are no longer confident about the metals (unless they break above the old highs by the time you get this… ha ha…. gold is at $909 as I write!), but our opinions are unchanged on the mining shares most likely topping timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisP Posted October 2, 2008 Report Share Posted October 2, 2008 yup, there are loads of bullish articles. Now look at the stock prices. Someone isn't convinced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catflap Posted October 2, 2008 Report Share Posted October 2, 2008 Gold now cheaper than it was 28 years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted October 2, 2008 Report Share Posted October 2, 2008 When I said I thought we would see $820 again, I didn't mean on the back of the Senate vote I meant the House of Representatives vote. I would be very surprised if the bill was not passed this time based on media perception, where does this leave the POG... $785? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HPCsoYESTERDAY Posted October 2, 2008 Report Share Posted October 2, 2008 yup, there are loads of bullish articles. Now look at the stock prices. Someone isn't convinced. I am listening to schiff at the mo and he tackles this via a couple of questions from buyers of his funds http://www.europac.net/media/PeterSchiff_10-01-2008.mp3 now in fairness they are talking about utility companies but I think the same answers would apply. fwiw, I don't have juniors so I respect your pov given the performance of the 2 you still own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nicejim Posted October 2, 2008 Report Share Posted October 2, 2008 At some point today Coin Invest Direct removed the pre-2008 Krugerrand from their listing. Sold out? Disclosure: 27% down on Black Rock Gold & General. I'm far too busy with the day job to hold any gold shares individually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted October 2, 2008 Report Share Posted October 2, 2008 Gold Rockets Past $5,000 in Heavy Trading Jan. 21, 2012 (AP) For the fifteenth straight day, the price of Gold rose on record-setting volume, reaching a milestone few believed possible just a few short years ago. Roaring inflation and a fading US dollar, combined with the continuing stress and uncertainty of World War III, pushed gold past the psychological barrier of $5,000 (to gold bugs, the "Big Nickel"), to close at $5,108 per ounce. Gold is now up an astonishing 66% since December 31, matching its percentage ascent of January 1980. "It was another peak day," proclaimed an exhausted trader on the floor of the NYSE, whose daily order flow, he said, included hardly any gold stocks as recently as a year ago. "The orders for mining stocks and the Gold ETFs are pouring in so fast and in such large volume that the computers needed help from us humans on the trading floor." Floor traders had been widely considered obsolete in 2008. The excitement is thick and palpable in this bastion of capitalism, as each trader tries to scream louder than the next. Goaded by the fear of being left behind, gold buyers keep pouring in, and the price continues rocketing upward. "This is a once in a lifetime opportunity," shouted an ecstatic floor broker, who admitted he had been slipping in orders for his own account. Meanwhile, outside the exchange, worried-looking buyers formed long lines at coin shops around the city. Already swamped with orders, the shops became financial refugee centers when a rumor ignited that Congress was considering confiscating gold, something that hasn't happened since 1933 under President Roosevelt. The rumor gained strength from last year's imposition of exchange controls. Supposedly needed for national security reasons, they gave rise to the "northern gaucho," a term used to describe Americans who risk jail time to slip dollars across the border into Canada. More violence was reported in the coin shop lines again today. In Manhattan, one incident was so serious that a life-flight helicopter had to be called in when a women stabbed a man who reportedly had cut into the line and then tried to enter the shop without a ticket. E-tickets for coin shop entry are now required by a city ordinance, something many consider very Orwellian. Some bullion shops have gone a step further and placed armed guards at entrances, who are reportedly none too polite when frisking customers for weapons. While most are stunned by the yellow metal's price trajectory, the rise in gold stocks has been even more dizzying. In spite of the tremendous gains they have had in the past year, the influx of new, first-time buyers has not slowed. Given the small number of real Gold and silver companies, the buying pressure is, as one gold bug noted, "equivalent to pushing the flow of Niagara Falls through a garden hose." As seemingly every investor has learned by now, gold stocks are leveraged to the price of gold. While the metal is up five-fold in the last three and a half years, many stocks are up ten- and even twenty-fold. But it is the Canadian juniors that have shown the greatest leverage; a few of the better-managed companies have given shareholders returns of 50-to-1 or better. "Our recommended Canadian stocks are up an average of 1,000% over the past three years," said well-known speculator Doug Casey, speaking to a reporter with the good luck to find him in a hotel elevator. "However, our better performers have returned 5,000% to date. Our biggest winner closed today at $101 per share; we first recommended it at 87 cents. "Adjusted for inflation, gold is just now reaching its 1980 top," explained Casey. "This is something we've been expecting for years." But joy for some is regret for others – especially those who sold in 2008, when the metal lost 23%. "I panicked during the sell-off that summer," lamented an investor. "I went another direction with my money, and I can't tell you how many times I've regretted it. I sold most of my gold stocks for a big loss that year. But what I really lost was all the future profits I threw away." Scares from a fleeting rise in the Dollar and a whiff of deflation convinced much of the public to dump gold and gold shares back then. And yet, as Doug Casey commented, "That was the buying opportunity of a lifetime and the last time the train stopped at a station with a 3-digit gold number." The buying is not expected to stop anytime soon. Time magazine just announced that its lead story in its upcoming issue will be a chronicle of the gold bull market that started in 2001, with a front-cover picture of a gold bull stampeding outside a derelict NYSE building. With the widespread bullish sentiment for gold, it came as a surprise when someone in the elevator jokingly asked Doug Casey if he was considering selling. Mr. Casey gave no answer but got out at the next floor and explained that he needed to put something together for his subscribers... Doug Casey, 30 Sep '08 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted October 2, 2008 Report Share Posted October 2, 2008 Will we get platinum at the same price as gold? If so would it be a good switch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narco Posted October 2, 2008 Report Share Posted October 2, 2008 Will we get platinum at the same price as gold? If so would it be a good switch? Possibly but nothing really stands out to indicate where we currently are historically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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