GOLD

[azazel]

Tell me once you know how.

 

haha. I don't! Like I said, I'm just a fool. But spikes always seem to be followed by a fall. Except the spike starting 07/07. I was hoping you would be wiser than me and explain how you know better so I could benefit from your experience. Perhaps your experience is that trading is a fools game from your own past experience. If so teach us, explain please. What about cgnao, whats your strategy? Do you buy and hold or do you sell on the peaks and buy back on dips? See I'm just an idiot but there are new people here that need to learn before they make the mistakes I have.

 

I think it would be nice if we viewed other members as friends and helped them out by being transparent with our own experiences.

 

sorry if I'm rambling.The wife's to blame, she got me a bottle of wine!

[Errol]

I would agree that gold trading is highly dangerous. Don't do it unless you have lots of money to lose.

 

You're better off buying physical. Hold it in your own hands.

[sylvester]

Thanks S~ That's exactly the sort of thing i am looking for and very well-priced. My family are starting to get a little nervous with the odd delivery they get from time to time.... TBH makes me a little nervous also not to have my PM in a vault.

 

I think I shall go for the mini one also... if available. I can imagine a lot of people are looking for these services now.

 

Regards.

 

The other thing I found was insurance for the stash as long as it is in the vault for present market value. To be honest I am not sure that the insurance company thought that one through but I have it in writing

The gold provision is part of an overall contents insurance plan (as my old contents insurance wouldn't cover the bullion).

Insurance from is Echelon from NZI, organised through C&G Rothbury in Wellington

[azazel]

I would agree that gold trading is highly dangerous. Don't do it unless you have lots of money to lose.

 

You're better off buying physical. Hold it in your own hands.

 

Im about a 1/3 sovs, 1/3 bars, 1/3 BV. Id like to be 2/3 BV. I plan to hold the sovs goldfinger style but Im a bit fidgety with the BV gold.

[narco]

Moving away from day trading and looking at the long term weekly chart, it doesn't look to bad imo.

 

We're still well in the upchannel, MACD looks close to a bullish cross. From the EW perspective, it looks like we've had an A,B,C correction from the highs and a wave 1 and 2.

 

I can also see the alternative EW point that we're starting a wave B of a larger correction of the entire bull move. Wave C could suggest possibly somewhere around the $650 level into 2009? I hope so.

 

Maybe someone else can read this better?

 

[azazel]

We're still well in the upchannel, MACD looks close to a bullish cross.

 

Whats MACD? some sort of burger?

[narco]

Whats MACD? some sort of burger?

LOL its Moving Average Convergence / Divergence. Swing traders can use the cross as an indicator of a bullish or bearish move.

 

This one potentially looks bullish but not yet confirmed.

 

[plan9]

That's right - 'money' my arse. Might as well be wheat. However, I still agree with GF that when/if TSHTF, silver will be just what the public want.

I'm not getting rid of mine any time soon either!

[HPCsoYESTERDAY]

I would agree that gold trading is highly dangerous. Don't do it unless you have lots of money to lose.

 

You're better off buying physical. Hold it in your own hands.

 

+1

 

whilst I have nothing against the paper traders per se, it is not for me, keep it simple, move from physical au > ag and back around the ratio diffs if you want excitement!

 

I am more ag now and as I trade a bit of physical ag as well, it has shown me what a different market the silver bullion / coin one is compared to the paper one; since the falls from $13-14 spot price, the difference in physical prices (excluding 1000oz bars) has been negligible. Also, whilst we're on the subject of ag spot price, it really doesn't want to go under $10 - watch it come back to nearer $11 again tomorrow. rinse and repeat, awaiting the breakout

 

 

 

[Mr Pipples]

From Jim's site:

 

Posted On: Wednesday, October 15, 2008, 1:51:00 PM EST

 

Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan

 

Author: Dan Norcini

 

 

Dear CIGAs,

 

It was more of the same type of price action that we have been seeing in gold for some time now. The market is torn between continued deleveraging from speculative

players on account of redemption requests from clients moving to cash versus safe haven buying.

 

It has been interesting reading the comments about this market in the financial press of late. The majority of gold pundits for the most part seems to be reading the same talking points which as usual are utterly and completely wrong. To hear them say it, gold as a safe haven is finished, over, kaput, pushing up daisies, swimming with the fishes, surfing its last wave, worm food, ad infinitum, ad nauseaum.

 

What these mindless robots seem unable to grasp is that the Comex is NOT the gold market. It is a paper market which has been the recipient of large speculative buys by commodity index funds. These funds take large positions in an entire gamut of commodities based on the weightings of those particular commodities in the various commodity indices that they use as a benchmark. It some cases it might be the Goldman Sachs commodity index. In others it is the Reuters/Jefferies CRB index; it still others it is the Dow Jones Commodity Index. That means they buy gold, silver, crude oil, corn, wheat, nat gas, sugar... etc... in the same percentage terms as they are weighted in those indices. For example, if the weighting in one of these indices for gold happens to be 5%, then for every million dollars of client money invested, they are required to buy $50,000 worth of gold futures contracts at the Comex. When these funds get redemption requests from clients, who now want out of the commodity sector, they are forced to sell FUTURES across the board to generate the cash needed to send back to their clients. That is why, for the most part, the entire commodity complex is sinking whether it is corn or soybeans or wheat or platinum, etc. If $20 million of cash is required to meet client redemption requests, then $20 million of commodity futures must be sold REGARDLESS OF THE FUNDAMENTALS IN THAT PARTICULAR MARKET. In other words, it is FORCED liquidation on account of redemption requests. That has NOTHING TO DO with the real physical gold market where demand remains at unprecedented levels, levels so high that it is producing serious shortages of bullion for would-be buyers. This is what is producing the increasing dichotomy between the Comex and the real gold market. I would go as far as saying that we are for all practical purposes seeing a BLACK MARKET in gold beginning to develop.

 

Having said all that, it should still be noted however that while every single commodity futures market is in the red today on account of this forced selling, GOLD IS STILL RELATIVELY STABLE! Hey, you dimwitted pundits who keep pooh-poohing the yellow metal’s safe haven status because it is not trading at $1000, take note. Even in spite of the forced liquidation, gold is hanging in there precisely because there are enough buyers to offset a great deal of this continued forced liquidation. And this is in the arena of the futures market. In the real world, gold is fetching $1000 an ounce out there in some instances. Premiums for one ounce gold bullion coins are running anywhere from $65 - $100 above the quoted spot price and certainly above the phony price quoted on the Comex. Last year at this time you could buy all the one ounce gold bullion coins you wanted for $20 - $30 over the spot price.

 

Meanwhile back in Fairy Tale land at the Comex, open interest registered a bit of an increase in yesterday’s session moving up nearly 2,500 contracts. I suspect that come this Friday, when we review the Commitments of Traders report, we are going to see increases in the fund SHORT category with a sharp drop in the fund long category alongside of short covering by the bullion banks who have been using the forced selling to cover their shorts in order to capture their paper profits allowing them to hit the metal on the next rally and do the same thing all over again.

 

To put things in perspective about this open interest decline – we are down to levels last seen in November 2006. Let’s state this in terms that perhaps convey what I have been trying to say for some time now. NEARLY ALL OF THE SPECULATIVE INTEREST THAT HAS BEEN DRIVING PAPER GOLD HIGHER FOR THE LAST TWO YEARS HAS NOW DISAPPEARED due to this forced liquidation. This is incredible when you think about it a bit. So much deleveraging in gold has already occurred, that nearly all the buyers from the last two years are gone from this market. And yet, in spite of this, gold is still sitting above the $800 level. Back in November 2006, front month gold closed at the price of $646.90. Today, we are nearly $200 higher than that and yet nearly all of the speculative long side interest going back to that date is gone. Someone is buying gold because they see value in it and that buying has been sufficient to hold the price relatively firm compared to nearly every other commodity out there. What can be said about gold cannot be said about any other single commodity out there. If you doubt this, pull up the continuous price charts of corn or soybeans or platinum or copper, etc., and just look at them. Look at the chart of crude oil. Look also at the gold/crude oil ratio which has shot up strongly in favor of gold. (By the way, this alone is the reason why many of the gold mining outfits with quality mines, good management and good balance sheets are going to show some strong profits and continue to be sold down to levels that are extremely undervalued). Gold is even outperforming even longer dated Treasuries right now.

 

To sum up, as the equity markets fall off the cliff thumbing their noses at the monetary authorities, expect further risk aversion to occur which means further forced liquidation in commodities. Watch the Euro/Yen cross and the Yen itself to get a sense of when the bulk of this will abate. The Yen as well as the Swiss Franc are benefiting from the unwinding of carry trades and will tend to be the stronger currencies out there ( along with the US Dollar) as long as the risk aversion play is in vogue.

[Compounded]

 

When I started the gold thread(s) back when the Great Banning over at the madhouse HPC took place, I wanted this to become a thread on gold fundamentals and relationships to other assets like houses.

 

IMO, trading gold is quite dangerous and I would like to encourage everyone to rather follow an accumulating buy & hold strategy.[/quote

 

By having an understanding those fundamentals I have the confidence to hold through dips that are predicted to become much more extreme, I know I would have fear of missing out on a big rise and would therefore be a poor trader - guess its knowing my limits.

 

 

[G0ldfinger]

I think people should be allowed to discuss what they want to discuss, even on 'your' thread... or indeed on a new one...

It would just be a pity if someone got deprived of gold through their trading if it was inspired by a thread that originally wasn't intended to do so.

 

That's all I wanted to say.

[Steve Netwriter]

IMO, trading gold is quite dangerous and I would like to encourage everyone to rather follow an accumulating buy & hold strategy.

 

I agree. IMO if extremely experienced people like Jim Sinclair warn against it, why would I think I could do better than him ?!

It's not as if the long-term prospects really need improving by trading

 

My limit is swapping gold for silver at the 'dips', and vice versa at the 'peaks', if I can pick them, but only for a smallish percentage of the total.

 

IMO for all but experienced traders, if you want to trade gold/silver, it should be viewed as a bit of a gamble on the side. Money you can lose.

 

[azazel]

I agree. IMO if extremely experienced people like Jim Sinclair warn against it, why would I think I could do better than him ?!

It's not as if the long-term prospects really need improving by trading

 

My limit is swapping gold for silver at the 'dips', and vice versa at the 'peaks', if I can pick them, but only for a smallish percentage of the total.

 

IMO for all but experienced traders, if you want to trade gold/silver, it should be viewed as a bit of a gamble on the side. Money you can lose.

 

That's fair enough. My instinct is that you are right. But I think its an important discussion to have, regularly if nessarsary as new people arrive here on a regular basis. Also when and how to buy gold and when to get out etc. All subjects that need discussing regularly.

 

BTW thanks for tidying up the threads Steve.

[Steve Netwriter]

BTW thanks for tidying up the threads Steve.

 

I know, it's about time

 

I have no worries. I've noticed that sometimes we do get a bit of confusion between some people who are thinking short term and others long term.

The trading discussions do help those trying to time buying.

 

I don't like to see anyone following well worn paths to loss though

 

It does rather feel to me like standing in from of a loaded pistol at the moment.

At any time the trigger could be pulled. I wouldn't want to be on the launch pad.....

 

(mixed metaphors )

[gwizzie]

Yeah it's a reverse of yesterday (silver up, gold down), just noise I think really don't think one day counts as decoupling.

Look at what i can only describe as a phase shift between gold (blue)and silver (black)

The big jump down in silver happened on the 15th of August

 

I was trying to find a correllation with something and i laughed at one of the funniest charts i have seen in a long time

Can you tell what it is yet?

 

[G0ldfinger]

Look at what i can only describe as a phase shift between gold (blue)and silver (black)

The big jump down in silver happened on the 15th of August

...

This chart here might illustrate this a little better:

 

 

Maybe also this one here:

 

[qwerty]

From the excellent Jesse's

 

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2...nd-current.html

 

Gold, Oil, MZM, Credit and the Short Term Liquidity Contraction

 

MZM is the Fed's broadest measure of liquidity. Although gold is not as 'immediate' as cash due to the need to convert it to currency, nevertheless it is a liquid store of wealth in that there are no time constraints on it such as on Certificates of Deposit or other time constrained instruments.

 

As we have shown before, the correlation between the growth of MZM and the price of gold in dollars is remarkable.

 

 

[wren]

So, that's it really -- that's as far as I've gone with considering strategy, but I'd be more than happy to hear anyone else's views on trading. Perhaps a separate thread would be useful?

There was an Australian company, I forget the name now (would be grateful if anybody could provide it), which did very nicely trading the gold bull market over the last several years until they blew up, was it last year or early this year?

 

They must have been dedicated and using sophisticated statistical analysis. And yet in the end they came a cropper.

 

Not to discourage people who have sufficiently low fees to make this feasible. But beware.

[wren]

I know what you mean, silver swore she was a lady, but she's acting like a cheap commodities tart!

Silver is the handmaiden of gold.

 

And remember that the Fates and the Norns are female, so be careful how you speak.

[kernull]

if i judge by gold only, we should reverse in the dollar and bottom in commodities on friday:

edit: stocks & oil may put a lower low on thursday

[romans holiday]

I'm certainly of a mind to give the trading thing a whirl.

 

Up until now, I've been buying with the long-term view, and I don't expect to sell that any time soon -- unless my beliefs substantially change, or I get tired of the whole thing.

 

But I decided I'd have some additional funds just for trying out trading.

 

I've considered it before, but what made me actually decide to do it was the reply I gave to someone a few days ago on this thread when they were expressing regret at not having bought earlier in the long run up we had last week (but before the smack down had occurred).

 

In response to them, I said something like: I can almost guarantee that at some point in the future, the price will be lower than it is now (given the general volatility, plus the leg-up that gold had had the few days before)... and it got me thinking... 'Yes, gold WILL be lower that it is now, and if I was in a trading frame of mind, I'd be selling some now and waiting for a lower price to buy back in again.'

 

As it happened, that was a well-timed thought because of the smack-down. I appreciate that the smack-down needn't have happened, but I'm sure most people on here who've watched gold price for a few months would agree that, after a leg-up like that, the price of gold will indeed (with almost 100% certainty) be lower again at some point -- probably within days if not (as on this occasion) hours.

 

So, that's it really -- that's as far as I've gone with considering strategy, but I'd be more than happy to hear anyone else's views on trading. Perhaps a separate thread would be useful?

 

I was very close to selling a few ounces on the last spike. I didn't.

 

My instinct to hold over-rode possible short term gain. For a couple of days I did the "could've would've should've" then realised this was just a confusion of mind. Why risk a large long term gain for a small short term which is uncertain anyway?

 

Investing is future looking. By looking backwards you can always second guess yourself. Once this starts and it becomes a habit of mind you may lose your clarity of vision. The successful investor IMO is one who will maintain their discipline and hold to their vision over some time horizon.

 

Will restrain myself to trading gold for silver when the ratio is favorable.

[kernull]

if i judge by gold only, we should reverse in the dollar and bottom in commodities on friday:

edit: stocks & oil may put a lower low on thursday

i just watched a bit more at my chart, and i see the low of the channel is located in the time frame of tomorrows NY opening, so this is probably to happen:

 

1. stocks likely to put new low tomorrow (and it may be it, the bottom)

2. dollar to make a (new or not new) high

3. gold to make another failed breakout and bashed down to 820, or even 810

all this to ocurr between 8 and 12 NY time

it may not happen this way, but if it does, then it is more likely scaring people out of their positions, than going to 750

[godless]

This chart here might illustrate this a little better:

 

 

Maybe also this one here:

 

 

very useful chart, cheers

[Steve Netwriter]