romans holiday Posted October 29, 2008 Report Share Posted October 29, 2008 POG... good as gold.. going through 750 and 760... holding up pretty well in this environment IMO. Edit: Feels like the environment could change quickly. Wonder when.. and wonder what will spark it off. Post election there may be a mood swing... then tarp money could break out into the economy.... it is not hard to imagine the pendulum swinging back quickly to an inflationary scare. Then again we may just be in for an extended period of deflation punctuated at times by false hopes. How long for the tweedle dee and tweedle dum market to exhaust the players before they finally capitulate to PMs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWIW Posted October 29, 2008 Report Share Posted October 29, 2008 I need some rockets!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted October 29, 2008 Report Share Posted October 29, 2008 I need some rockets!!!!! Sorry... only got a few thoughts... which I hope are down to earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PricedOutNative Posted October 29, 2008 Report Share Posted October 29, 2008 So Why the spike on NY opening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Thyme Posted October 29, 2008 Report Share Posted October 29, 2008 I reckon maybe investors think the Fed might cut by more than 50 basis points because they've had sight of the GDP figures for the 3rd quarter and they're a lot worse than the 0.5% widely expected but then again, it could be down to some of those repatriated dollars are making their way back into equities and commodities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted October 29, 2008 Report Share Posted October 29, 2008 I reckon maybe investors think the Fed might cut by more than 50 basis points because they've had sight of the GDP figures for the 3rd quarter and they're a lot worse than the 0.5% widely expected but then again, it could be down to some of those repatriated dollars are making their way back into equities and commodities. Also, some investors are no doubt starting to think about the fundamentals of the economy... what earnings for the next few quarters might be... With a recession, why buy equities... better to park some money in metal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Thyme Posted October 29, 2008 Report Share Posted October 29, 2008 Also, some investors are no doubt starting to think about the fundamentals of the economy... what earnings for the next few quarters might be... With a recession, why buy equities... better to park some money in metal. I think we may get a pullback on a 50bp cut but if it's 75 . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted October 29, 2008 Report Share Posted October 29, 2008 possible timing based on eur/usd: thursday: gold shorts tuesday: gold longs http://i430.photobucket.com/albums/qq30/ke.../eurusd1029.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catflap Posted October 30, 2008 Report Share Posted October 30, 2008 Investec Global Gold fund has just put in a higher low. My thoughts are the dollar index may retrace back to around 80 - no technical analysis here I'm afraid, but just research into the 1974 period and spotting similarities...... it might go even higher still for all I know! http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2008/...term-june08.gif The Dow looks like it will put in a 3rd lower high and then drop around 15% over the next 2 weeks (again comparing the points and charts from 1974 and 1938) and that may mark the final bottom. This could lauch the final gold rally this decade before deflation really takes hold, so I still expect gold to hit $1000 again and maybe a little more some time in December. I really don't think we are in the December '74 to August '76 period yet where we had a 40% fall - that starts next year when deflation is well under way and the stock market has definitely bottomed IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 30, 2008 Report Share Posted October 30, 2008 Cgnao could be right. A bullish case for a gold low can be made Here's how I draw the chart: If it can power through $850, we should see fresh highs, maybe fairly quickly (as the dollar falls) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted October 30, 2008 Report Share Posted October 30, 2008 If it can power through $850, we should see fresh highs, maybe fairly quickly (as the dollar falls) So would you wait for $850 (presumably post-election)... or would you risk going long here ($775 currently)? Waiting for a $75 move up slightly concerns me, as that will be buying into huge strength.... but interested in your view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jinbal Posted October 30, 2008 Report Share Posted October 30, 2008 So would you wait for $850 (presumably post-election)... or would you risk going long here ($775 currently)? Waiting for a $75 move up slightly concerns me, as that will be buying into huge strength.... but interested in your view. Personally I'm almost exclusively watching the price in GBP as I average in (with my dry powder) and am looking for nice drops to add to my core holding. the FX fluctuations make the USD price almost useless to me at the moment. Of course this approach requires one to have a view that we are in a long term bull, which rightly or wrongly is what I have. I suppose I'm concentrating on accumulating as many Oz as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrongmove Posted October 30, 2008 Report Share Posted October 30, 2008 You are too kind! Seriously. I am very much an amateur, and I am not putting large sums where my mouth is, because I do not have large sums right now. But the subject interests me at the moment, gold vs. cash seems to be the only game in town for now, but it would be nice to start trying to spot some early bargains in equities. Cambrian mining at 35p, for example!!! .......... It's 52.5p now! It would be nice to return to more general discussion here. People who want gold have got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexreeve Posted October 30, 2008 Report Share Posted October 30, 2008 Last week they weren't buying - the price in Roubles was too high. Now they are back in time for Diwali to take advantage of the drops. If the price goes up again, they will stop buying again. After Diwali, demand will drop too, unless the price comes down. Of course it probably just coincidence that I called fair value yesterday, and this news of Indian demand pick up was released today, and the price is going up now. The Indians buy 800 tons of physical every year. Other jewelry accounts for another 800 tons. Total mine output is 2,500 tons. The remaining 900 tons is split between industry, dentistry and Western investors. Seen this? http://news.goldseek.com/GoldForecaster/1225348020.php Why the Indian Market Buys Gold When the Price is Falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ologhai Posted October 30, 2008 Report Share Posted October 30, 2008 Here's how I draw the chart: If it can power through $850, we should see fresh highs, maybe fairly quickly (as the dollar falls) Assuming a parallel between the peaks in May '06 and Mar '08, then why are we not just expecting another, say, eight months of little more than consolidation (however volatile) before we see any more decisive moves? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!) Posted October 30, 2008 Report Share Posted October 30, 2008 just testing as i cant post from my home pc anymore - i can log in but cant post or send a message Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted October 30, 2008 Report Share Posted October 30, 2008 Investec Global Gold fund has just put in a higher low. My thoughts are the dollar index may retrace back to around 80 - no technical analysis here I'm afraid, but just research into the 1974 period and spotting similarities...... it might go even higher still for all I know! http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2008/...term-june08.gif The Dow looks like it will put in a 3rd lower high and then drop around 15% over the next 2 weeks (again comparing the points and charts from 1974 and 1938) and that may mark the final bottom. This could lauch the final gold rally this decade before deflation really takes hold, so I still expect gold to hit $1000 again and maybe a little more some time in December. I really don't think we are in the December '74 to August '76 period yet where we had a 40% fall - that starts next year when deflation is well under way and the stock market has definitely bottomed IMO. In the short/medium term I see a similiar scenario unfolding. Market psychology is the prime mover short term and deflationary psychology is firmly in the driving seat here. Yet I can see things playing out quite differently in the medium/long term. The actions of an increasingly desperate Fed [and CBs all working in conjunction] may lead to a “breaking” of the currencies. When to buy/sell will all be about timing. Prices may be pushed low in the short/medium term creating good opportunities to buy. However when the currency breaks in the medium/long term it will not matter what price gold will become but rather how much gold you already have. I plan to trade on the ocassional spike/dip with 25% of my holding in the short term. Up to 25% because I already have most of my worth in gold. Only 25% because my fundamental instinct to hold gold always trumps my speculations on where its price may go. Edit: In an effort to combine the short term with the long term into one theory, I coined the phrase hyper-"deflation" a few months back. http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....t=0&start=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!) Posted October 30, 2008 Report Share Posted October 30, 2008 on a more long term perspective http://www.kitco.com/ind/Turk/turk_oct272008.html ok so he has a vested interest - but so has Buffett Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ologhai Posted October 30, 2008 Report Share Posted October 30, 2008 I'm just watching a video that Steve N posted on the Chris Martenson thread and noticed on their oil price chart (around 3:40 into the video) that there was a huge oil price spike -- over $94 a barrel -- at around the same time as the 1980 gold price peak. I imagine this isn't news to anyone else, but I've not really seen any historic oil price charts before so it rather jumped out at me. Are the reasons for those dual peaks independent phenomena, or are they linked either directly or because they occurred as a result of underlying economic reasons? The medium to long term price expectation of oil from today is presumably that it will rise dramatically, purely for supply and demand reasons as Peak Oil is alleged to be around nowish. Again, if gold is to rise also in the medium to long term, will it do so independently of oil, or because of some link? As a related question, for those who consider gold to be a fairly sure-fire investment (or insurance), is oil equally sure (or even more likely) to rise? Considering the price of oil right now, isn't it a good time to put some money that way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted October 30, 2008 Report Share Posted October 30, 2008 Assuming a parallel between the peaks in May '06 and Mar '08, then why are we not just expecting another, say, eight months of little more than consolidation (however volatile) before we see any more decisive moves? 2006 had positive real interest rates. So a bit negative for gold. That is certainly not the case now. So IMO they should not be the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted October 30, 2008 Report Share Posted October 30, 2008 on a more long term perspective http://www.kitco.com/ind/Turk/turk_oct272008.html ok so he has a vested interest - but so has Buffett That's not long-term. This is long-term Interesting to compare the charts: from: Stock Market Predictions Analysis of the S&P500 & Gold from 1880 to 2008 http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=4799 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted October 30, 2008 Report Share Posted October 30, 2008 You have got to read this. From the HPC news ticker. 3 men with gold confuse sheriff's sale They say bidders' paper cash is 'illegitimate.' By Matt Assad | Of The Morning Call October 29, 2008 http://www.mcall.com/news/local/all-b1_3go...0,1837218.story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexreeve Posted October 30, 2008 Report Share Posted October 30, 2008 You have got to read this. From the HPC news ticker. 3 men with gold confuse sheriff's sale They say bidders' paper cash is 'illegitimate.' By Matt Assad | Of The Morning Call October 29, 2008 http://www.mcall.com/news/local/all-b1_3go...0,1837218.story Interesting that they are referred to as anarchists when the basis of their claim is (presumably) the constitution itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted October 30, 2008 Report Share Posted October 30, 2008 Interesting that they are referred to as anarchists when the basis of their claim is (presumably) the constitution itself. Yeah, pro constitution anarchists It's quite funny reading really. And shows what the common world view is like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FWIW Posted October 30, 2008 Report Share Posted October 30, 2008 Yeah, pro constitution anarchists It's quite funny reading really. And shows what the common world view is like. I actually admire these guys...they are following in their founding forefather's footsteps...they are the ones keeping it real. This whole constitution thing must be a real pain in the asre for the ruling elite...When they go to the Amero, you can guarantee that there will be a new constitution that will be in their fiat favour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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