nicejim Posted May 30, 2009 Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 Monthly Gold Chart for May - All time monthly high in Gold by Dan Norcini The y-axis goes down to -$50! I'm pretty sure GF would step in before the price hit zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted May 30, 2009 Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 Monthly Gold Chart for May - All time monthly high in Gold by Dan Norcini http://jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/20...or-may-2009.pdf Makes you wonder why he even bothered to put the first chart together tracing nominal prices. The second chart shows how low the present price really is. Given both the low nominal price in present dollars and add to that a depreciated currency in the not too distant future it will not take much to see it at 1800. But at that stage I reckon we will be pricing it in something else... maybe Yuan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted May 30, 2009 Author Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 The y-axis goes down to -$50! I'm pretty sure GF would step in before the price hit zero I promise that I will buy the entire world gold stock at $0.00/oz. I will define the price at $100,000/oz the day after. This should create some sort of equilibrium with the $100 trillion US Gov black hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted May 30, 2009 Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 This is some posters' problem on here: they want to hear and spread the gold negative. Some on here talk constantly about it going down soon (so they can buy more ). Apparently they\'ll never buy more because it always will go down soon. I advise these people to buy US treasuries. You got to be in it to win it! Its interesting you use phrases like "some posters problem" and "want to...negative". It suggests you think they've got some reason to be deliberately biased against gold? I see very few (if any) real gold de-rampers here. Instead, some posters (including me) are just not prticularly biased against gold, or biased for gold - we're just trying to understand it and use it in the context of many other things. Those you criticise are perhaps just less convinced than you that gold is going to the moon, or see things unfolding over a different time frame, or have other priorities beyond getting mega-rich by one single investment. Its a big gamble to put everything into just gold. But if thats the way you've decide to play it, I admire your conviction and wish you well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted May 30, 2009 Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 Why not have some cheap US dollars besides Euros. Given a good position in bullion already, you are waiting for a correction that may come. Have you considered that this correction may only come in the US dollar price? Bernanke the master manipulator may trigger a crash in the markets and another round of de-leveraging. Then again, all that may be required for this is political protest against further printing and for the fundamentals of the economy to play out. If we get deflation scare 2, most currencies are likely to weaken more than gold which may dip a little against the dollar [forced liquidation] but at the same time strengthen against other currencies as a currency. I have a similiar position though less cash and 50/50 silver. I will be looking to swap silver to gold at around ratio of 50. Thanks for your comments. My cash percentage is higher than normal as it is newly acquired cash. In January I ran out of cash in my bullion accounts as I spent it all on silver from November to the first week of January. That was quite fortunate as I might have bought silver as early as July but more for chance reasons than design the purchases were delayed and I managed to catch the low in November and December. I understand your reasoning about buying USD which sounds quite rational. However, being a gold bug, I would feel a bit like an infidel buying USD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted May 30, 2009 Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 No. Slow buying and taking delivery will kill the shorts. No meltdown of any dramatic and fast kind is needed for this. I agree in principle... IF enough people continue to buy and take delivery, AND IF the 'system' isn't changed to prevent the deficiency of real gold becoming apparent, then the fireworks will start But those are big 'IF's I also wonder what those fireworks would look like... if I were holding paper gold (as most people are) then I'd be selling furiously, and the paper price of gold would plummet. Would the price of real gold concidently rocket, or would everyone just loose faith in gold generally (i.e., not distingish paper and real), and also start selling their real gold. It could be like a run on the bank, wre efear and confusion rile the day, with the result that gold would flood the market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted May 30, 2009 Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 I understand your reasoning about buying USD which sounds quite rational. However, being a gold bug, I would feel a bit like an infidel buying USD. Interesting comment. For me gold is just money [more strictly, a currency] and a means to buy property one day.... though at times I can wax poetical about it. I reckon investing, or trying to preserve your wealth, in this anarchic environment is akin to psychological warfare and moral rectitude does not come into it at all. In warfare you try to make use of any ground you can and utilize all the methods and alliances at your disposal. Don't get me wrong, I am not amoral, but do think a pragmatic and flexible approach as opposed to an orthodox one is of more use in the economic sphere.... or should I say when this sphere has broken down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted May 30, 2009 Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 Its a big gamble to put everything into just gold. It hasn't been a gamble for 4000 years. What makes you think it's a gamble now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted May 30, 2009 Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 It hasn't been a gamble for 4000 years. What makes you think it's a gamble now? The answer is in your question... Over long time frames (centuries, or many many decades) gold is arguably the only thing that retains its value. But over years (the time frame on individuals investment horizons) gold can change radically in value. Gold is not now cheap. I actually estimate it to be somewhat above its fair price - due to the fear and problems we've had globally these last 2 years. What is even more surprising is that its price didn't go to twice the levels we've seen, and that is something I put down to manipulation by the PPT. And they aint giving up without a fight! So to now have all your wealth in gold is placing a big bet that i) the PPT won't keep the price under control, and ii) we'll pass straight from a credit crunch period into an era of high inflation (without a significant and stable deflationary gap in between). If those two things apply, gold could simply go up from here. Otherwise, there has to be a risk of a big pull back in the PoG over next 1-4 years. ...IMHO Get this bet right, and you could get wealthy. Get it wrong and you might not break even for the best part of a decade (assuming you have the nerve to leave all your money so invested for that long) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted May 30, 2009 Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 Gold is not now cheap. I actually estimate it to be somewhat above its fair price Have you looked at an inflation-adjusted chart recently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted May 30, 2009 Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 Interesting comment. For me gold is just money [more strictly, a currency] and a means to buy property one day.... though at times I can wax poetical about it. I reckon investing, or trying to preserve your wealth, in this anarchic environment is akin to psychological warfare and moral rectitude does not come into it at all. In warfare you try to make use of any ground you can and utilize all the methods and alliances at your disposal. Don't get me wrong, I am not amoral, but do think a pragmatic and flexible approach as opposed to an orthodox one is of more use in the economic sphere.... or should I say when this sphere has broken down. As I was writing that comment I was thinking the same sort of thing. If I do go ahead and average in between now and September it would make a lot of sense to be holding a paper currency likely to hold up better over that time period. This would mean studying forex markets which gets a bit much for me. How much does it cost to transfer between currencies at GoldMoney? I found that it is 0.49% for transfer between currencies. What are the arguments for and against holding any of the currencies which they offer? The currencies they offer are (just checking the site to get the list) USD, CAD, GBP, EUR, CHF and JPY. Are all purchases of platinum and palladium subject to VAT? One of the nice things about investment silver at GoldMoney is that we can buy without paying VAT. I need to remember that the 2-letter abbreviation for platinum is Pt (not Pl as I wrote in an earlier post). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Compounded Posted May 30, 2009 Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 It hasn't been a gamble for 4000 years. What makes you think it's a gamble now? I hope gold is money and not a gamble and would be very happy if it manages to preserve my current spending power in the storm ahead. History - few have made money with gold many have preserved their wealth through difficult times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted May 30, 2009 Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 History - few have made money with gold many have preserved their wealth through difficult times. That's the whole point. Who said anything about trying to make money? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Compounded Posted May 30, 2009 Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 That's the whole point. Who said anything about trying to make money? In th HPC days of this thread many were of that opinion - including me. I think, I hope, I am wiser now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted May 30, 2009 Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 Have you looked at an inflation-adjusted chart recently? Yes - and that's exactly the reason I think as I do. Those charts show how gold had an unprecedented and short term jump in price to USD850, as and when the gold standard was broken. Its long erm average value equates to something like USD 700-800 in todays money. This is even more true for GBP PoG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted May 30, 2009 Author Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 ... For comparison: http://gold.approximity.com/since1968/UK_H...es_in_Gold.html http://gold.approximity.com/since1968/GBPUSD.html ... Its long erm average value equates to something like USD 700-800 in todays money. ... According to these charts, gold was worth $200 in 1970, and $1,000 today, i.e. today it is 5 times more expensive. But for some reason, it won't buy me 5 times more house. Given that the pound back then was $2.50, we should in fact get 8 times more house! Indeed, I seem to get approx. the same amount of house. How can this be???????????? Conclusion: flush the inflation adjusted chart down the toilet. The numbers are rigged. Gold is still massively undervalued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted May 30, 2009 Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 That's the whole point. Who said anything about trying to make money? Well... pretty much the majority of people who who post here! If the goal was preserving wealth over the course of ones lifetime, then we should be looking for any non-cash asset that did not come with massive volatility. That implies steadily drip feeding into a healthy and mix of property, stocks, company debt, and inflation protected bonds held to maturity. It would not imply buying only or mostly gold (or any PM), where the volatility can be immense and prices can rise or fall many tens of fold over a short number of years. So surely people are seeing the coming inflation tsunami as something that will send gold through the roof, and hence they want to ride that train - to get rich, not just to preserve wealth. The risk is they time it wrong, or don't sell at the top, and actually loose wealth. Gold is a secure way to preserve wealth over many many lifetimes, not over any particular decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted May 30, 2009 Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 Conclusion: flush the inflation adjusted chart down the toilet. The numbers are rigged. Gold is still massively undervalued. I tend to agree for inflation these last 10-15 years - which is when inflation figures have been particularly rigged. But I'm not sure it massively changes ones interpretation of where we are compared to long term average PoG (atypical peak in 1980 notwithstanding). My fear is that the current PoG is just like the initial peak in very early 1970's. Indeed, I think the whole picture argues exactly for that. Hence I'm feeling safer with less in gold just now, planning to buy more if/when we get a 40-50% pull back the next few years, prior to a 10 fold leap over the subsequent decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GatheringStorm Posted May 30, 2009 Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 History - few have made money with gold many have preserved their wealth through difficult times. Excuuuuuuuse me - I was buying Krugers off ebay for around £250 each in 2005 - look at 'em now! As for manipulation I'm not convinced - how come the price goes up every year? If that's manipulation then more please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted May 30, 2009 Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 Excuuuuuuuse me - I was buying Krugers off ebay for around £250 each in 2005 - look at 'em now! As for manipulation I'm not convinced - how come the price goes up every year? If that's manipulation then more please! Likewise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Compounded Posted May 30, 2009 Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 Excuuuuuuuse me - I was buying Krugers off ebay for around £250 each in 2005 - look at 'em now! As for manipulation I'm not convinced - how come the price goes up every year? If that's manipulation then more please! I contend there are few like you - though probably there may be a substantial percentage of posters on a gold investment thread like this! Congrats not many got gold at £250 per oz - I did not get it until £360 (and that is thanks to randomly finding GF a German with family memory of currency collapse on HPC) and I did not move the pension which represents real money for me until the 400's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dietcolaaddict Posted May 30, 2009 Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 So surely people are seeing the coming inflation tsunami as something that will send gold through the roof, and hence they want to ride that train - to get rich, not just to preserve wealth. The risk is they time it wrong, or don't sell at the top, and actually loose wealth. Gold is a secure way to preserve wealth over many many lifetimes, not over any particular decade. Hi bigtbigt I don't expect to 'make money' from precious metals. I just expect to preserve my wealth (and keep it liquid) while 60% of UK owner occupiers loose > half of theirs in the next few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted May 30, 2009 Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 I've made a lot of money of course (though it's not realised as I've not sold any gold) as I started buying in 2000. But making money wasn't the point. The point was to protect myself and the value of my money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huntergatherer Posted May 30, 2009 Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 I contend there are few like you - though probably there may be a substantial percentage of posters on a gold investment thread like this! Congrats not many got gold at £250 per oz - I did not get it until £360 (and that is thanks to randomly finding GF a German with family memory of currency collapse on HPC) and I did not move the pension which represents real money for me until the 400's. I got in at £315 (about $605) in 2006. Thanks to posters on this type of thread. I undertook careful research and fully understood the wealth preservation and insurance reasons for holding. At the time holding dollar denominated assets, not sterling, was identified as a yielding strategy. I put in what would have been the equivalent of a typical FTB property deposit. (but this is only a small share of my total funds) I am not too worried about fluctuations in gains because I hold a core position of insurance against my other currency deposits. My Au hedged my Yen, Swiss Franc, Euro deposits for some time which have since been converted to sterling and Canadian dollars. I doubled up my PM holding by buying Ag in 2008 and then added 50% more metal on the low of $8.81. I sold off my Ag at the end of February (when Ag overshot from its low channel excursion) because this represented a possible high and Ag is very susceptible to deflationary forces. I 'preserved' the dollar gains against sterling by doing this. I bought some more Au after the February correction but am keeping an open mind to possible scenarios. The main one being PMs may not necessarily be a one way ticket to wholesale wealth preservation. (longer term-yes, shorter term-maybe no) This is only because the additional Au is on top of my core position. I hope to be in a position to respond to price rises as well as buy in at lower values should they arise. By being not over committed I can afford to take a longer term view if necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted May 30, 2009 Report Share Posted May 30, 2009 I got in at £315 (about $605) in 2006. Thanks to posters on this type of thread. I undertook careful research and fully understood the wealth preservation and insurance reasons for holding. At the time holding dollar denominated assets, not sterling, was identified as a yielding strategy. I put in what would have been the equivalent of a typical FTB property deposit. (but this is only a small share of my total funds) I am not too worried about fluctuations in gains because I hold a core position of insurance against my other currency deposits. My Au hedged my Yen, Swiss Franc, Euro deposits for some time which have since been converted to sterling and Canadian dollars. I doubled up my PM holding by buying Ag in 2008 and then added 50% more metal on the low of $8.81. I sold off my Ag at the end of February (when Ag overshot from its low channel excursion) because this represented a possible high and Ag is very susceptible to deflationary forces. I 'preserved' the dollar gains against sterling by doing this. I bought some more Au after the February correction but am keeping an open mind to possible scenarios. The main one being PMs may not necessarily be a one way ticket to wholesale wealth preservation. (longer term-yes, shorter term-maybe no) This is only because the additional Au is on top of my core position. I hope to be in a position to respond to price rises as well as buy in at lower values should they arise. By being not over committed I can afford to take a longer term view if necessary. Masterful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now