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Paul Tustain of BullionVault has just sent out an email to customers which I think provides a good brief summary of the monetary situation.

 

I hope BV does not mind if I post his email in its entirety here (bolded by me):

 

Anyone know the FT article that says gold bulls are nuts?

 

Great article - thanks for posting!

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Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Co.,

 

“Gold just seems to make sense; it’s a store of value,”

 

 

It's the depth of their research that impressed me :)

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How do gold bugs respond to the TA revealing an overbought position?

 

Look at RSI, Chaikin money flow, and also volume?

 

FWIW, I reckon we are in shortly in a for quite a large short term correction in gold as indicators are all showing overbought without underlying support.

 

I also reckon the dollar will bottom this next week and rally for the short term, and $ dominated commodities such as oil will correct and fall from around $70 which is a top.

 

...at least this is the general theme of how I will be investing for the next few months.

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How do gold bugs respond to the TA revealing an overbought position?

 

Look at RSI, Chaikin money flow, and also volume?

 

FWIW, I reckon we are in shortly in a for quite a large short term correction in gold as indicators are all showing overbought without underlying support.

 

I also reckon the dollar will bottom this next week and rally for the short term, and $ dominated commodities such as oil will correct and fall from around $70 which is a top.

 

...at least this is the general theme of how I will be investing for the next few months.

blah blah blah, sorry bored of answering these sort of questions. Read this forum to find out the answer.

 

Are you putting your money where your mouth is?

 

 

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The Big Collapse Could Be Very Near

 

The Federal Reserve appears to be increasingly nervous about the long term bond market. This is serious. How panicked are they? After leaking a story on Friday, they are back at it on Sunday.

 

The Federal Reserve leaked to CNBC's Steve Liesman on Friday that they weren't targeting long rates. Why such a leak? Probably because the Fed did not want to appear impotent in controlling the long rate. So they put out the word through Liesman that they weren't targetting the long rate. Can you imagine what would happen to the markets if it sensed long rates were beyond the control of the Fed?

 

The Fed can of course print money to buy up every Treasury bond in existence, but the inflationary ramifications would be Zimbabwe like, and crush the dollar on international currency markets. Are we near the phase where all hell breaks loose? I have never even answered, maybe, to this question before. It's always been, "no." Now it's maybe.

 

What really has me spooked is another article out this afternoon (on a Sunday) that Drudge has even picked up. It's a Reuters story by Alister Bull. The headline: Federal Reserve puzzled by yield curve steepening.

 

Translation, the Fed doesn't know what is going on, but they are really scared.

 

It's the Chinese, and any other Treasury bond buyer who follows the markets, that have pulled away, to varying degrees from buying Treasury long securities. No one wants to be the last one holding bonds, where the new debt about to be issued is in the trillions.

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blah blah blah, sorry bored of answering these sort of questions. Read this forum to find out the answer.

 

Are you putting your money where your mouth is?

 

 

Of course I put my money where my mouth is. Indeed I already have done a Gold Short today. In the end I didn't look for confirmation from gold bugs like your goodself as invariably I would get the sort of response like you provided. I just wanted to share some views. So I apologise for doing that.

 

The fact remains that you can not answer why RSI and CMF is so high. I had read the posts - please show me which one answers this - or can't you be bothered "bla, bla bla".

 

 

 

 

 

 

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How do gold bugs respond to the TA revealing an overbought position?

 

Look at RSI, Chaikin money flow, and also volume?

 

FWIW, I reckon we are in shortly in a for quite a large short term correction in gold as indicators are all showing overbought without underlying support.

 

I also reckon the dollar will bottom this next week and rally for the short term, and $ dominated commodities such as oil will correct and fall from around $70 which is a top.

 

...at least this is the general theme of how I will be investing for the next few months.

Some sell a percentage of their position (usually a lot less than 50%), hoping to buy back cheaper.

 

G0ldfinger chastises them saying "you've got to be in to win". :P

 

May was a new all-time monthly closing high. We are close to the important USD 1000 figure and seem to be completeing this much talked about inverted head and shoulders formation. Oil has been increasing steadily over the last weeks. The printing presses are close to overheating. GM is bankrupt and California is 14 days from being broke.

 

We're supposed, by some, to be at the start of a summer doldrums but it feels very edgy.

 

So, I agree that it's beginning to look overbought but there are all these other worries.

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The fact remains that you can not answer why RSI and CMF is so high. I had read the posts - please show me which one answers this - or can't you be bothered "bla, bla bla".

 

 

RSI is high down to the $ weakness, how strong a correlation is there between high RSI high $ and a fall in the POG in sterling specifically. This TA seems based on myths to me. It's easy to get into now with the automation and people are looking for off the shelf answers. Red sky at night and all that..

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Of course I put my money where my mouth is. Indeed I already have done a Gold Short today. In the end I didn't look for confirmation from gold bugs like your goodself as invariably I would get the sort of response like you provided. I just wanted to share some views. So I apologise for doing that.

 

The fact remains that you can not answer why RSI and CMF is so high. I had read the posts - please show me which one answers this - or can't you be bothered "bla, bla bla".

OK, here you go....

 

Interesting what price did you get on your short? I think you are mad, why would anyone want to short gold in the midst of the biggest financial crisis in history and a multi year gold bull run. The chinese must love people like you, just gets them what they want cheaper. Gold is a time tested protection of purchasing power and hedge against government irresponsibility. Wouldn't it be better to go short something like retail, builders, treasuries or a bank?

 

There are many reasons, like for instance the news item about bonds above.

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=111347

 

Also if you look back at the other TA reasons like, the inverse head and shoulders formation. Volume should pickup as we go through $1000 which will propel us to $1200+. Gold is moving into stronger hands at the moment, hedge funds, so the bullion banks can't play there usual games. Give it a couple of weeks and we will see, who is right.

 

RSI shows when a financial instrument has a lot of Relative Strength, so why should a high RSI be negative?

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Of course I put my money where my mouth is. Indeed I already have done a Gold Short today. In the end I didn't look for confirmation from gold bugs like your goodself as invariably I would get the sort of response like you provided. I just wanted to share some views. So I apologise for doing that.

 

The fact remains that you can not answer why RSI and CMF is so high. I had read the posts - please show me which one answers this - or can't you be bothered "bla, bla bla".

 

Careful with your 'Shortz' :unsure:

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Of course I put my money where my mouth is. Indeed I already have done a Gold Short today. In the end I didn't look for confirmation from gold bugs like your goodself as invariably I would get the sort of response like you provided. I just wanted to share some views. So I apologise for doing that.

 

The fact remains that you can not answer why RSI and CMF is so high. I had read the posts - please show me which one answers this - or can't you be bothered "bla, bla bla".

 

Sorry, I should have also added that I went short Oil yesterday too.

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Some sell a percentage of their position (usually a lot less than 50%), hoping to buy back cheaper.

 

G0ldfinger chastises them saying "you've got to be in to win". :P

 

May was a new all-time monthly closing high. We are close to the important USD 1000 figure and seem to be completeing this much talked about inverted head and shoulders formation. Oil has been increasing steadily over the last weeks. The printing presses are close to overheating. GM is bankrupt and California is 14 days from being broke.

 

We're supposed, by some, to be at the start of a summer doldrums but it feels very edgy.

 

So, I agree that it's beginning to look overbought but there are all these other worries.

 

I am only going short for the short term correction as my original post states - I don't disagree with the longer term trend. I just simply think that this is not "it" yet.

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Interesting what price did you get on your short?

Wouldn't it be better to go short something like retail, builders, treasuries or a bank?

 

Also if you look back at the other TA reasons like, the inverse head and shoulders formation.

 

I got $43.1 on SBUL.

Hold on , I am only going short gold for a a few weeks or month(s), maybe picking up the short term correction. I'll see how it goes for the next week or so.

In the long run I agree with you completely. I see a triple top potentially in gold though before the spike or massive movement to 1300++ (which will come next year IMO.)

I am short banks already (XS7S), and short FTSE and to a lesser extent S&P. I am recently short oil too, as I believe we have reached an interim top. This like gold could be a short-term play for me.

I am long Natural Gas from these lows.

I am long Soyabeans too.

I am covered to a degree with inflationary hits by Index linked bonds (INXG).

 

 

 

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So I'm assuming this little pull back to be mostly due to Ben Bernanke:

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e8aa33c6-504c-11...html?ftcamp=rss

Bernanke calls for action on deficits

 

By Krishna Guha in Washington

 

Published: June 3 2009 15:50 | Last updated: June 3 2009 15:50

 

Ben Bernanke on Wednesday called on Congress to take action now to bring down long term US budget deficits, warning that the bond market was concerned about rising US government debt.

 

The Federal Reserve chairman said the recent increases in bond yields “appear to reflect concern about large federal deficits” as well as improved optimism about the economy and other factors.

Wall Street stocks declined in early trade on Wednesday as investors reacted to Mr Bernanke’s testimony and to fresh economic data.

 

Mr Bernanke said it was essential that the US avoided a situation in which sustained large deficits pushed up borrowing costs, increasing deficits further and leading to an upward spiral in debt.

 

The Fed chief said large deficit-funded actions to fight the crisis – including the Obama administration’s fiscal stimulus – were “necessary and appropriate.” But he said “maintaining the confidence of the financial markets requires that we as a nation begin planning now for the restoration of fiscal balance.”

 

Freetrader on HPC http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...&p=1928139:

It's not explicitly an admission of defeat, but it puts Bernanke in a very difficult position now. If next week the Fed announces that QE is being expanded to buy more US Treasuries then I can see the market selling off big-time. It will make today's statement seem like hollow words.

 

Bernanke's thesis for preventing deflation was no doubt predicated on containing the unwinding of a bubble and the subsequent deleveraging. What the Fed cannot cope with is rising interest rates in the face of depression, but until state spending is under control the markets are going keep driving those rates up.

 

Also we don't know what feedback Geithner had from the Chinese. They may have drawn a line in the sand on QE.

 

Everyone knows that the fiscal overspend has less to do with Keynesian deficit spending than chronic structural government largesse. Until that issue is fully addressed rather than having some vague promise that "we'll do it someday, but not today" then interest rates are going to keep going up.

 

We're not quite there yet, but if the Fed throws in the towel and the politicians don't override it, then it's Japan II in my opinion.

 

EDIT: prudence? it will be the end of the stock market, imo. It could be the crash we've been waiting for. No doubt it will crash metals too. Still, they are nice and shiny and paper is just paper.

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Email from ATS bullion......

 

 

The Elusive Krugerrand

 

After months of scarcity we have been lucky enough to obtain a small number of Krugerrands. This instantly recognisable one ounce coin is considered one of the best ways to invest in the gold market.

 

Click here to visit our website...

 

 

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FWIW, I reckon we are in shortly in a for quite a large short term correction in gold as indicators are all showing overbought without underlying support.

 

I also reckon the dollar will bottom this next week and rally for the short term, and $ dominated commodities such as oil will correct and fall from around $70 which is a top.

 

...at least this is the general theme of how I will be investing for the next few months.

Looks like you might have nailed this precisely (next few days will tell)!

I'll watch your predictions very carefully in the future :)

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Has ATS had issues getting Krugs over the past few months ??? Anyone been in there in the last month and asked ????

 

They do not have anything like the range CID has. It seems they only have what the last few sellers through the door sold to them.

 

 

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