grumpy-old-man Posted October 7, 2009 Report Share Posted October 7, 2009 One day Ted Butler will be right! (That day, I am going to make a very serious profit.) I hope so. what were the reasons/fundamentals that caused the 1981 spike ? (it was 1981 wasn't it?) I bet the reasons/fundamentals will be stronger this time...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THEBIGMAN Posted October 7, 2009 Report Share Posted October 7, 2009 I hope so. what were the reasons/fundamentals that caused the 1981 spike ? (it was 1981 wasn't it?) I bet the reasons/fundamentals will be stronger this time...... Cornering of the silver market by Nelson Bunker Hunt. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Bunker_Hunt This is why the China influence is "interesting" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man Posted October 7, 2009 Report Share Posted October 7, 2009 Cornering of the silver market by Nelson Bunker Hunt. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Bunker_Hunt This is why the China influence is "interesting" I have heard mention recently (last 2 months) of the Hunt brothers iirc. I had never heard of them before or even realised there was a silver spike in the early 80's. "Beginning in the early 1970s, Hunt and his brother William Herbert Hunt began accumulating large amounts of silver. By 1979, they had nearly cornered the global market.[6] In the last nine months of 1979, the brothers earned an estimated $2 billion to $4 billion in silver speculation, with estimated silver holdings of 100 million ounces.[7] During the Hunt brothers' accumulation of the precious metal, prices of silver futures contracts and silver bullion during 1979 and 1980 silver prices rose from $11 an ounce in September 1979 to $50 an ounce in January 1980. Silver prices ultimately collapsed to below $11 an ounce two months later. The largest single day drop in the price of silver occurred on Silver Thursday.[1]" that's why I don't think I will ever lose any big money. I am not greedy. I will never sell at the top or buy at the bottom, just somewhere near the top & near the bottom. wrt selling silver, this will be more difficult imo, in fact very difficult though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted October 7, 2009 Report Share Posted October 7, 2009 ... During the Hunt brothers' accumulation of the precious metal, prices of silver futures contracts and silver bullion during 1979 and 1980 silver prices rose from $11 an ounce in September 1979 to $50 an ounce in January 1980. Silver prices ultimately collapsed to below $11 an ounce two months later. The largest single day drop in the price of silver occurred on Silver Thursday.[1]" that's why I don't think I will ever lose any big money. I am not greedy. I will never sell at the top or buy at the bottom, just somewhere near the top & near the bottom. wrt selling silver, this will be more difficult imo, in fact very difficult though. GOM, here is a close up of this period for you. Also note: the silver price was over $30 Dollar for at least 2.5 months or so. Enough time to sell IMHO. http://gold.approximity.com/1979-1980/Silver_USD.html For many other charts from these two years: http://gold.approximity.com/1979-1980/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man Posted October 7, 2009 Report Share Posted October 7, 2009 GOM, here is a close up of this period for you. Also note: the silver price was over $30 Dollar for at least 2.5 months or so. Enough time to sell IMHO. thanks Goldfinger. looking at that chart I would imagine if I had bought in at say $5 for example, then I would have sold at $20-25 imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InSilverWeTrust Posted October 7, 2009 Report Share Posted October 7, 2009 Any of you picking up on what is brewing up for the end of this month?? TFH time maybe?? Tin market cornered by unnamed commodities buyer - http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/oc...or-buys-all-tin 'Silver market cornered'...now that would be a laugh, but not a surprise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THEBIGMAN Posted October 7, 2009 Report Share Posted October 7, 2009 wrt selling silver, this will be more difficult imo, in fact very difficult though. Yeah. Silver is notoriously volatile; just look at the big peaks and troughs since the shenanigans started a couple of years ago. Ted Butler's worth reading for a while until you realise that every article is, in fact, exactly the same and has been since the mid-90's. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure he's right about price manipulation and I'm glad he's calling "foul", but I don't think there's anything that he, or you, or I can do about it. Of course, assuming he's right and the market has been suppressed for over 30 years, then the free market will eventually correct this, as it always eventually does. Back down to $11 in 1980; back down below $10 in November 2008. Plus ca change. Allowing for currency depreciation, there's an awful lot of potential upside for silver, despite its principal industrial application (photography) being made obsolete by digital technology and ink-jet printing. Personally I think that battery technology will be a significant consumer of silver ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver-oxide_battery ) in the age of the electric car. YMMV ( ) This volatility is why my personal choice is to hold through the physical commodity ETCs (PHAU and PHAG). Cheap 'n' liquid. To each their own... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InSilverWeTrust Posted October 7, 2009 Report Share Posted October 7, 2009 If any of you are in the area and would like to drop in!! The China International Silver Conference (CISC) is accepting registrations for this year’s conference to be held at the Huatian Hotel in Chenzhou, Hunan Province, China from October 21-23, 2009. http://silver2009.antaike.com/en/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THEBIGMAN Posted October 7, 2009 Report Share Posted October 7, 2009 'Silver market cornered'...now that would be a laugh, but not a surprise! Yeah. I've always liked Professor Antal Fekete's articles on monetary metals and basis trading. He argues that the giveaway will be a move from contango into permanent backwardation, indicating a total loss of confidence in fiat currency (http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1228499200.php) although Mike Shedlock (always worth reading, IMHO) has pooh-poohed it (http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/12/nonsense-about-gold-backwardation.html). Who knows if we'll see a short squeeze in silver soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted October 7, 2009 Report Share Posted October 7, 2009 That was a one-off GOM, when the Hunt brothers cornered the market. Very peculiar business, Jim Sinclair was their advisor I believe. ... Sinclair was asked by Volcker to sort out the Hunts' mess after it had collapsed IIRC. it didn't stay near the absolute peak for long at all IIRC Yes. I do not expect to call perfectly a peak at all. All I want to achieve is to ride the "obvious" part up. In silver back then, I'd say 20:1, when silver was $30 and gold was $600, should have been a major exit signal for anyone being in it at the time. So, let's keep this in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted October 7, 2009 Report Share Posted October 7, 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bakachu Posted October 7, 2009 Report Share Posted October 7, 2009 I may regret this, but with the dollar index getting stronger and yesterdays gains based largely on rumours, I've lightened up on some silver. I'm calling it hedging and not trading I don't have a large position, so it's mainly a learning experience for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted October 7, 2009 Report Share Posted October 7, 2009 I may regret this, but with the dollar index getting stronger and yesterdays gains based largely on rumours, I've lightened up on some silver. I'm calling it hedging and not trading I don't have a large position, so it's mainly a learning experience for me. Out of Interest what did you swap to, dollars? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bakachu Posted October 7, 2009 Report Share Posted October 7, 2009 Out of Interest what did you swap to, dollars? 50/50 USD and CAD Edit: Forgot to mention, if the dollar breaks ~76 I'll be back all in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted October 7, 2009 Report Share Posted October 7, 2009 50/50 USD and CAD Edit: Forgot to mention, if the dollar breaks ~76 I'll be back all in Good idea, 76 looks like it is the support line, next support below that is a long way down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted October 7, 2009 Report Share Posted October 7, 2009 I would be very very careful of a silver short, the price could massively break out at anytime due to the massive short position by the bullion banks. Ted Butler has been recently talking about the fact that the rules may be about to change. I would have a big problem with going short anything that does not have an over supply problem. Remember that the silver market is very small. BTW I see £14 silver within 5 months. http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Bro...als_Market.html The article below talks about the limits on commodity positions about to be enforced, can anyone say silver short squeeze. Interest sparked in physical commodities - FT.com - 6/10/09 Facing a limit on holdings in paper futures contracts, bankers say they have received inquiries from pension funds and other big investors about the practicality of warehousing industrial metals or chartering supertankers. The inquiries raise thorny issues for the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission as it devises constraints on holdings of energy futures after last year’s surge in oil prices. Gary Gensler, chairman, has said he wants position limits to be consistently applied across commodity markets. Critics say investors could respond by bailing out of futures and hoarding actual commodities, an ugly prospect in the event of a global shortage. Neither the CFTC nor the UK Financial Services Authority has jurisdiction over spot commodity markets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HPCsoYESTERDAY Posted October 7, 2009 Report Share Posted October 7, 2009 I would be very very careful of a silver short, the price could massively break out at anytime due to the massive short position by the bullion banks. Ted Butler has been recently talking about the fact that the rules may be about to change. I would have a big problem with going short anything that does not have an over supply problem. Remember that the silver market is very small. BTW I see £14 silver within 5 months. http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Bro...als_Market.html yep - agree with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InSilverWeTrust Posted October 8, 2009 Report Share Posted October 8, 2009 $17.80! anyone for $18 today?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorSolar Posted October 8, 2009 Report Share Posted October 8, 2009 Im continually adding to my physical silver stash and I notice on ebay UK that 1oz commemorative sterling silver coins from wee commonwealth islands etc are regularly selling for 10% under spot. They don't state their silver content on the actual coin but come with a certificate stating the purity and weight. Any of you chaps reckon these are a good buy? My thoughts are silver is silver. But maybe folks just prefer the well known bullion coins and are not interested in such things even at a discount? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted October 8, 2009 Report Share Posted October 8, 2009 Im continually adding to my physical silver stash and I notice on ebay UK that 1oz commemorative sterling silver coins from wee commonwealth islands etc are regularly selling for 10% under spot. They don't state their silver content on the actual coin but come with a certificate stating the purity and weight. Any of you chaps reckon these are a good buy? My thoughts are silver is silver. But maybe folks just prefer the well known bullion coins and are not interested in such things even at a discount? Silver is silver IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted October 8, 2009 Report Share Posted October 8, 2009 Silver looks still subdued here. (The red dots are the last 5 trading days.) http://gold.approximity.com/gold-silver_watch.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
id5 Posted October 9, 2009 Report Share Posted October 9, 2009 Im continually adding to my physical silver stash and I notice on ebay UK that 1oz commemorative sterling silver coins from wee commonwealth islands etc are regularly selling for 10% under spot. They don't state their silver content on the actual coin but come with a certificate stating the purity and weight. Any of you chaps reckon these are a good buy? My thoughts are silver is silver. But maybe folks just prefer the well known bullion coins and are not interested in such things even at a discount? Some of these commemeratives are Sterling 92.5% and a few of them are 50% silver but there are a lot that are nickel silver and are exactly the same as the real silver version. The 1977 Queen's Silver Jubilee Commemorative Crown comes to mind as one of these that came as a Sterling proof but all the rest were nickel silver. Be very careful with what you ar buying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorSolar Posted October 9, 2009 Report Share Posted October 9, 2009 Some of these commemeratives are Sterling 92.5% and a few of them are 50% silver but there are a lot that are nickel silver and are exactly the same as the real silver version. The 1977 Queen's Silver Jubilee Commemorative Crown comes to mind as one of these that came as a Sterling proof but all the rest were nickel silver. Be very careful with what you ar buying. Good point. I've only bought a handful of these things and all came with certificates of authenticity stating fineness. At 10GBP a pop I imagine wouldn't be worth folks while to forge? But your right best to be sure what exactly it is your getting. That's why I was wondering if investors might favour recognisable and well known bullion coins that state their fineness on the coin itself? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
id5 Posted October 10, 2009 Report Share Posted October 10, 2009 Good point. I've only bought a handful of these things and all came with certificates of authenticity stating fineness. At 10GBP a pop I imagine wouldn't be worth folks while to forge? But your right best to be sure what exactly it is your getting. That's why I was wondering if investors might favour recognisable and well known bullion coins that state their fineness on the coin itself? If you are an investor then stick to the recognisable and well known bullion coins you will be better off in the long run. Forget certificates and such like these have been forged all over the place and they are only worth the paper they are written on. A common one for Sovereigns are certificates relating to the coin being a part of the consignment of the ship Douro. If you want to collect for numismatic reason then forged certificates add another layer of interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted October 10, 2009 Report Share Posted October 10, 2009 I only buy commonly recognised bullion coins and bars. Eagles, maples, phillis, pandas, argor heraraus, credit suis, Johnson Matthey etc. They are more in demand so are easier to sell. I cant see this changing in the future. Old English silver coins often sell for below spot and this might change as they become more desireable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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