Jump to content

SILVER


Recommended Posts

 

The masses happily getting fiat for their granny's old jewelry-I pity their desperation and despise their greed. Many of them deserve to be fleeced for their lack of research. Many are genuinely short of cach to pay the mortgage/food/credit card. And I feel sorry for them. I am happy to be a 'nutter' and have alienated friends and family members for my pains. Now I just shut up and buy.

 

<snip>

 

So I dont think anyone knows what to expect. All we can do is try as best we can get prepared. The UK's route will not be as decorous as Iceland if the going gets bad. They've only got a handful of a population and are all probably well educated and philosophical. The UK on the otherhand...well, look around on Saturdays, it's scary.

 

Better get onto Chards website again and cheer myself up...

 

Informative post Jake, thanks. Lots of food for thought.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 6.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Informative post Jake, thanks. Lots of food for thought.

 

Sorry I wasn't of more concrete arguments. It seems to me we really are in uncharted waters hence the lack of idea of how it is going to all pan out in the near future from our financial thinkers. It makes me really consider that another currency IS being thought about for us all, in a world where all our debts are somehow written off, or written down, or inflated away somehow. I mean it is unthinkable for a modern so called 'first world' country like ours or the USA or Japan to be in a situation where our money doesn't work. What the hell are people going to do? How are we going to get food? And it is not like those with a few tradeable ounces of silver or gold are going to be ok and the others just quietly crawl away into the third world. Sure those with tradeable/barterable assets will do better for a time but when/if others got wind of 'Bloggs down the road' with his SHTF pot of gold, then I'd rather not be him. More like were going to wind down (like we have been for many years), our money becoming more and more worthless in the world as we slip down the slope of the economic table until we all realize that we are in fact piff poor and apart from a puffed up past and a superiorirty complex, we are actually worth little and our world opinions irrelevant.

 

Likewise for America I can't just see them slipping down the road into bankruptcy and taking it willingly. They surely will lash out like a dying beast, supplanting the blame of their failures at the feet of another alien country who is 'intent on breaking the spirit of the American people' or some other rubbish. War? I hope not, but probably yes. I can see the day when gold and silver-the hoarding of-will be criminalized in an instant, blamed on terrorists or some other hogwash. The majority will go along with this and the prudent will be punished for their insight, just as the prudent have been unrewarded for not stacking up on huge irresponsible debts with tracker mortgages that reflect the base rates twists and turns down to the 0.5% or whatever it is. Meanwhile savers get stuffed for their pains and the worry of losing their cash which is a whisper away from becoming 'worthless' and guaranteed to the cost of a luxury car!

 

It really is a huge balls up this misuse of credit. Where we go next is anyones guess. I suggest changing all your money to PM's if you havent already done so-and getting the hell out of the UK. But it isnt that easy for everyone and where will escape? Perhaps the next best thing would be to buy freehold with plenty of land. Hopefully they can't take that off you. But to lose out on the market falling over itself seems such a waste of good money-besides property in the UK is still a jokers paradise. Quarter of a mill, buys you a dump! I would rather buy a campervan and drive off into the sunset for a few years, picking up bullion wherever I was, taking my chances. Who knows when the government could close the door on exit strategies for your cash. I imagine the time is getting nearer.

 

And all the while people are basically continuing without a care in the world. 'Oh it'll be allright'. Maybe they are right. But maybe they are wrong. Unfortunately the evidence weighs against positive thinking and goes against history as long as any of us can remember. It really does seem to me like the chicken fed all his life by the friendly farmer. Then one day he comes not with corn but a sharpened knife.

 

The buying of PM's for 'survival' is so counter intuitive for the majority ( which is why the elite always stay rich perhaps) is perhaps THE reason to continue to purchase them. For the time being I have largely lost faith in fiat currencies and use it only for daily useage. I would much rather have PM's nowadays and I think if you do the research you'd come to the same conclusion: convert it as sensibly as you possibly can with what you like. Ironically I have become an 'irresponsible consumer'. Luckily for me it is 'real money' that I want to buy and not HDTV or some other crap on offer. For the last few years it has been a very wise and lucrative trade. It makes me laugh out loud at times how ludicrous it seems, using fiat cash I earn to buy gold and silver which could earn me more fiat cash if I was interested. Likewise the more I buy PM's the cheaper property becomes priced in the PM's. Its a win win situation.

 

For sanity sake I sometimes step back and consider the 'nutter' label. I have been reading 'nutter' articles and 'nuttter' internet forums since about 2003 and it has done me the world of good. Just about everything said about gold and silver has been true. I'm really not sure about the web bot stuff. In fact i dont even know what that means. A lot of it seems more intelligent than the BBC or CNN. What I mean is FS, Kitco, old HPC, GEI and related sites. The mainstream seems intent on keeping people the real 'nutters' IMHO. From never having had an interest in business or economics the whole ride has been an eye opener. It has also been easy to sort the wheat from the chaff. Its also been fairly simple. Sell Property and rent. Buy PM's. Watch as the pile of cards crashes around you.

 

A turning point for me was finding' Ian Gordons work around 2003/4. A chance article I read. I followed that up with other research and was quite moved by 'This is It'. It was/is a marvellous article and I recommend it to everyone who hasn't read it. Every word he spoke of has been born out and it is written so well. A serious scholar of economic history I have no doubt the rest of what he says will be born out likewise. Like Bob Prechter and Cliff Droke, Gordon proposes that there is no soft way out of this deflation. The debts and sums are simply too big to escape from. Debt has to be wrung out of the system and it will be very painful. There is nothing anyone can do to change the story, not Bernanke, King, Trichet, GS, the Banks (lol). What we have now is just making the endgame worse. Of course there are ways to make money along the way but the way to stay safe is...well give it a read.

 

Right now the interesting thing for me is to see how PM's hold up in the next big leg down. It seems only Prechter thinks gold and silver especially will be hit in the next deleveraging. Others have moved within a deflationary context to a fully fledged 'flight to safety' mode for PM's. And Prechter recommends gold despite the coming EW fall! So it seems to me you cant lose.

 

Regarding silvers rarity I can see the arguments and understand them. I dont know if it will become 'extinct' any time soon or not. But it will become rarer. Ths it has to be a good investment. And it has so many uses-what could we use instead of it? I dont know.

 

So for all options I think gold and silver are best. Keeping hold of it safe is another chapter. I am glad mine isnt in the UK anymore. Same goes for me, despite how much I miss it.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With your foreign currency or with your gold or silver. If you don't have this you will have to rely on your salary which means you will be very poor. Forget about trading silver chains in a supermarket - it will never happen - you will have to go through the intermediary of fiat.

You are missing why we use fiat from your thoughts. Using PM's on a daily basis still happens in a lot of non-westernised countries and has for thousands of years.

 

The Chinese originally thought of fiat because they had a stable political system that lasted for generations. Its purpose was never to make trade easier but to reduce loss of tax. As soon as a payment is made in weight of PM's and not the value of a token you break that key link to the government coffers, that of control of the currency. The government can monitor and control tokens but they can’t control metal that has its own intrinsic value, the black or natural market flourishes. The more stable the country the less the black or natural exists and the further the people can been weaned from metals with value.

 

Tesco’s, Wal-Mart and the other chains cannot react fast enough when a fiat economy is under severe stress because they are built on the fundamentals of fiat. They do not make their money by selling goods. They make it from renting shelf space to the food producers along with built in distribution and payment facilities. Their store managers have little to do with pricing as this is done centrally along with purchase and stock control. Independent stores don’t have this problem as they control the price, stock and where they purchase stock from. Look at the news footage from countries like Argentina and Zimbabwe and you can see that the chain stores have empty shelves but the independents are still well stocked.

 

Go to an independent and ask a non-westernised Asian or Middle-Eastern owner if you can pay in precious metals, the result may surprise you.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There is a pub in Derby that accepts PM's, the owner even has signs outside saying he buys gold and silver.

I expect you could get a whole crew really drunk for a sovereign :lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You are missing why we use fiat from your thoughts. Using PM's on a daily basis still happens in a lot of non-westernised countries and has for thousands of years.

 

The Chinese originally thought of fiat because they had a stable political system that lasted for generations. Its purpose was never to make trade easier but to reduce loss of tax. As soon as a payment is made in weight of PM's and not the value of a token you break that key link to the government coffers, that of control of the currency. The government can monitor and control tokens but they can’t control metal that has its own intrinsic value, the black or natural market flourishes. The more stable the country the less the black or natural exists and the further the people can been weaned from metals with value.

 

Tesco’s, Wal-Mart and the other chains cannot react fast enough when a fiat economy is under severe stress because they are built on the fundamentals of fiat. They do not make their money by selling goods. They make it from renting shelf space to the food producers along with built in distribution and payment facilities. Their store managers have little to do with pricing as this is done centrally along with purchase and stock control. Independent stores don’t have this problem as they control the price, stock and where they purchase stock from. Look at the news footage from countries like Argentina and Zimbabwe and you can see that the chain stores have empty shelves but the independents are still well stocked.

 

Go to an independent and ask a non-westernised Asian or Middle-Eastern owner if you can pay in precious metals, the result may surprise you.

 

Yes, this is the whole point as this is where most people get their food.

 

There is a clear difference between the universal daily use of PMs and the situation where a shop owner (or even thousands of shop owners) will trade with you for gold to cash to goods. State employees are paid in fiat - they have to eat and if the supply chain and credit system collapses then we are in deep shit. That is why it will be made to function long after it seems to be a farce. I am not suggesting that there will not be a dual economy - of course there will be - there always is and PMs and stable foreign currencies will buy you anything, I am merely pointing out that most people will have to use the government fiat as they have no choice.

 

IMO one good indication for when things are on the cusp of going hyper (not just high inflation) is when you notice that expensive luxury foods are no longer available in the big supermarkets. By the time only grey bread and dodgy sausages are on the shelves and the loaf costs £120,000000, even Realistbear from HPC may admit he made a bad call.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What happened in Zimbabwe? I thought they used gold for grocery purchases.

 

It's the most recent currency collapse and the behaviour was different and it never went Mad Max.

 

I think you may be wrong on this.

yes they did according to the video i watched where gold was being used to acquire supplies,a total breakdown in the percieved value of paper.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes, this is the whole point as this is where most people get their food.

 

There is a clear difference between the universal daily use of PMs and the situation where a shop owner (or even thousands of shop owners) will trade with you for gold to cash to goods. State employees are paid in fiat - they have to eat and if the supply chain and credit system collapses then we are in deep shit. That is why it will be made to function long after it seems to be a farce. I am not suggesting that there will not be a dual economy - of course there will be - there always is and PMs and stable foreign currencies will buy you anything, I am merely pointing out that most people will have to use the government fiat as they have no choice.

 

IMO one good indication for when things are on the cusp of going hyper (not just high inflation) is when you notice that expensive luxury foods are no longer available in the big supermarkets. By the time only grey bread and dodgy sausages are on the shelves and the loaf costs £120,000000, even Realistbear from HPC may admit he made a bad call.

 

That loaf now costs 190,000000 :o

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes, this is the whole point as this is where most people get their food.

 

There is a clear difference between the universal daily use of PMs and the situation where a shop owner (or even thousands of shop owners) will trade with you for gold to cash to goods. State employees are paid in fiat - they have to eat and if the supply chain and credit system collapses then we are in deep shit. That is why it will be made to function long after it seems to be a farce. I am not suggesting that there will not be a dual economy - of course there will be - there always is and PMs and stable foreign currencies will buy you anything, I am merely pointing out that most people will have to use the government fiat as they have no choice.

[/quote

When the realisation is felt that fiat is just paper and has no intrinsic value it doe'snt matter what any so called government says the people will decide wether to accept or not accept something has value.There is always a choice just most dont realise it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes, this is the whole point as this is where most people get their food.

 

There is a clear difference between the universal daily use of PMs and the situation where a shop owner (or even thousands of shop owners) will trade with you for gold to cash to goods. State employees are paid in fiat - they have to eat and if the supply chain and credit system collapses then we are in deep shit. That is why it will be made to function long after it seems to be a farce. I am not suggesting that there will not be a dual economy - of course there will be - there always is and PMs and stable foreign currencies will buy you anything, I am merely pointing out that most people will have to use the government fiat as they have no choice.

...

Good points Schaublin.

 

Presumably, Iraq will still accept Sterling for oil?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We are discussing the use of gold and silver in a SHTF scenario not the universal daily use of PMs, your statement in your post was

 

I have read many posts on the subject of SHTF use of silver and gold in daily transactions for groceries etc. IMO it will not happen.

....

 

Yes, this is the whole point as this is where most people get their food.

 

There is a clear difference between the universal daily use of PMs and the situation where a shop owner (or even thousands of shop owners) will trade with you for gold to cash to goods. State employees are paid in fiat - they have to eat and if the supply chain and credit system collapses then we are in deep shit. That is why it will be made to function long after it seems to be a farce. I am not suggesting that there will not be a dual economy - of course there will be - there always is and PMs and stable foreign currencies will buy you anything, I am merely pointing out that most people will have to use the government fiat as they have no choice.

...

Key State employees, like the politicians and military forces already come under the National Emergency system and will get their rations from that distribution source. The National Emergency system has been in place since the cold war and has not been dismantled just reduced in scale. Any other State employees will be in the same boat as the rest.

 

Take a look at the graphs of the UK food security and the worked example from this report https://statistics.defra.gov.uk/esg/reports...oodsecurity.pdf from DEFRA. Note also that when this report was produced they do not evaluate and associated little risk with economic crisis, perhaps they believed that the risk of severe economic stress is too low. Their worked example using 2004 data shows that the UK is only 74.2% self sufficient in food.

 

Iceland collapsed whilst other countries could still help them by paying for imports because their 2 tonnes of gold reserves could not support them. If UK fiat collapses on its own then the country can pay for the 25% with the gold reserves that Gordon has left because it will not be able to pay by selling bonds. The UK will need 140 tonnes of gold per year at today’s gold value to purchase that 25% and the same amount in oil to keep the country going, with other costs such as the important state employees, it will soon be eaten up. If two or more large countries fail then the world may not be able to help as quickly as is needed. The government will not be able to purchase food imports, panic will set in, Tesco’s will have empty shelves and those without the means to pay the independents for food will suffer.

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good summary of the current technical stuff including COT here from Clive Maund:

 

Gold and Silver Update 4th October

 

He also considers a variety of scenarios on the inflation/hyper and deflation front, and what gold and silver may predict in this regard.

 

Defo worth a read. Charts very intriguing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ya, I don't know that anyone gives the full-service approach to this stuff and does it in a way you can make money. I haven't tried out a lot of these fellas cause I don't trade in shares these days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good summary of the current technical stuff including COT here from Clive Maund:

 

Gold and Silver Update 4th October

 

He also considers a variety of scenarios on the inflation/hyper and deflation front, and what gold and silver may predict in this regard.

 

Defo worth a read. Charts very intriguing.

 

This (below) is better. The maths are very compelling. Having recently jumped back in after Merv's devaluation talk and trip to Sweden, this article made me think more cgnaoesque hold physical. I may have to get my tin foil hat out and give it a polish. BV and CID may not be as safe if TSHTF.

 

Regards to all.

 

Nick

 

The Tiny $0.001 Trillion Silver Market

 

By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report

 

 

 

-- Posted 26 September, 2009 | Share this article| Discuss This Article - Comments: 7 Source: SilverSeek.com

 

 

 

(Millions, Trillions and Billions, Oh My!)

Silver Stock Report

The Silver Market is small. Very small. I don't think people quite understand how small it is, nor understand fully the implications, meaning how much higher silver prices must go as the market grows to accommodate future silver buyers.

 

Confusing matters is that the terms million, billion, and trillion mean different things, in different nations, and other nations also have different notations for how to write numbers exceeding 1000. Furthermore, most Americans are also unfamiliar with the terms, since most people don't use these terms in daily life. Who needs a billion french fries? But you do need to understand the numbers, in order to interpret political events, such as the amounts being spent by Congress.

 

Here are the American conventions, which I use in my writings. A thousand is written as 1000 and is notated with commas as 1,000. In America, we use a comma after every three zeros, starting from the far right, so every comma signifies another multiple of 1000.

 

A million is a thousand thousand. 1000 x 1000 = 1,000,000, also written as a million.

A billion is a thousand million. 1,000 x 1,000,000 = 1,000,000,000 also written as a billion.

A trillion is a thousand billion. 1,000 x 1,000,000,000 = 1,000,000,000,000 also written as a trillion.

A quadrillion is a thousand trillion 1,000 x 1,000,000,000,000 = 1,000,000,000,000,000 also written as a quadrillion.

 

Knowing that, we can now interpret the following key figures:

 

The annual Federal Budget these days is about $3 trillion, which can also be written as $3000 billion, or $3,000,000 million, or $3,000,000,000,000.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_budget

 

World annual silver production is about 600 million ounces. World annual silver investment is about 50-100 million ounces. All of mine production, and more, including recycling, is consumed by industry, leaving very little left over for any investment.

 

At $16/oz., x 75 million oz. = $1,200 million, or $1.2 billion, or $0.0012 Trillion.

 

Again, let's compare:

 

US annual government spending: $3 trillion

World annual silver investment demand: $0.0012 Trillion

 

Can you say, "The US government is spending way more than exists in the entire world?" I can. It sounds funny to say it, but I understand what I mean when I say it.

 

But that's only silver, some will protest. But adding gold to the mix does not help. Watch.

 

World annual gold mine production is 2500 tonnes, which is (x 32,151 oz/tonne) is 80.3 million ounces. At $1000/oz., that's $80 billion dollars, or $0.08 Trillion.

 

See, not even all the gold in the entire world's annual production would help the US budget. Gold would have to increase by a factor of 3000 / 80, which is 37.5 times, in order for the entire world's gold production to equal the US government's annual budget. See, gold will go way above $37,500/oz. by the time this bull market in gold is finished, because there are other people in the world who want gold in addition to the US government.

 

China wants gold. China has said they want $80 billion worth of gold. China has $2130 billion to spend on gold, or $2.13 trillion of foreign exchange reserves.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_excha...public_of_China

 

If China tries to buy a mere $80 billion of gold within one year, the gold price will likely head to $1500 to $2000/oz. this year. But China does not want to push up the price of gold to make it double in price. If they do, the value of the remainder of their $2130 billion will be cut in half.

 

Too bad for China, they have no choice. The value of their paper money will be cut by 95% or more anyway, even if they do nothing, as other nations, besides the US and China, also want gold. So it will come down to the reality, for everyone, that some gold is better than no gold! And silver, of course, is always better than gold, because silver will increase in value much faster!

 

China also wants their own people to buy silver!!! !!!

 

How will $2,130 billion of China's foreign exchange reserves fit into the annual silver market of $1 billion? Think about it. Think carefully. Think hard. Think!

 

Here's what I think. If China's people started buying $1 billion of silver per year, the silver price would head to $25/oz.

 

If China's people started buying $10 billion of silver per year, the silver price would head to $75/oz.

 

If China's people started buying $100 billion of silver per year, the silver price would head to about $750 per oz.

 

Can you say "Not enough silver!"? I can. There is a world silver shortage, and there will be a world silver shortage for the next few decades to come, probably until silver exceeds thousands of dollars per ounce in price!

 

There is no possible way that the silver price can be contained for very long, unless they discover a way to divert investment demand away from the limited physical silver, and convince people to hold things like ETFs, or futures contracts, or 'bullion accounts' instead. Oh yes, they have. But not for long, as the truth is getting out.

 

Sprott's Embry warns investors to make sure ETFs backed by precious metals

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/minewe...6&sn=Detail

 

The Bank of International Settlements reports there are $111 billion in "Other Precious Metals (IE, Silver) over the counter derivatives, as of Dec. 2008. (We await June 2009 stats.)

http://www.bis.org/statistics/otcder/dt21c22a.pdf

from

http://www.bis.org/statistics/derstats.htm

 

A man asked me this week at the JH MINT, "How'd you get into this?" I laughed and said, "The obvious!" He laughed too. What's not obvious to me is why everyone else is so deceived by paper money. It's really not all that special at all. it's just numbers on paper, signifying nothing!

 

One of my major wholesalers has a bullion precious metals inventory of $1/2 billion including both silver and gold. Another major wholesaler is a major warehouse for the COMEX. I don't think either one would let me order more than a few million dollars at once at a fixed price, because that would probably move the price up.

 

Yes, we can handle multi million dollar silver orders by placing orders direct with many of the nation's largest wholesalers, but be prepared to move up the price as you buy. And we can order for delivery in Grass Valley at the JH MINT. Call us today.

 

 

Sincerely,

 

 

Jason Hommel

 

http://silverstockreport.com/

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

... I have to say I have no trust anymore in any paper markets so it's bullion only for me from now on.

I gave up on trying making money in shares from either tipsters or by using my own analysis. I am still making money in FX and will continue to do so whilst profits are there but I am keeping the account value steady and moving profits from it into PM's via GM and then into physical.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I gave up on trying making money in shares from either tipsters or by using my own analysis. I am still making money in FX and will continue to do so whilst profits are there but I am keeping the account value steady and moving profits from it into PM's via GM and then into physical.

+1. With silver being the most volatile currency. B)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Neither do I, having tried a few a while back. Maund, Chan and Casey. Nearly lost my shirt on AUY Yamana. Was at 15-16+ once, last time I looked it was 4 or 5. One of Maund's and Casey's top picks. It is v v tough to make gains in metals shares unless you time it just right. And if you make some gains, you have to deal with the taxman. So much manipulation. Of course long term most metals shares should pay off handsomely but it has been a tough road the last few years. I have to say I have no trust anymore in any paper markets so it's bullion only for me from now on.

I am 70% bullion and 30% gold and silver miners. I do think the miner are a lot riskier, but like having something to do while I wait :lol:

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Dare I ask what miners? I must admit miners are temting, as in theory they could leverage any big metals moves by many times. I just have a hunch something nasty is coming down the pike and all shares will suffer.

Hochschild LSE:HOC

Great Panther TSE:GPR

Jinshan TSE:JIN

Silver Wheaton TSE:SLW

Silver Corp Metals TSE:SVM

 

+ one other which is heavily into Gold & Oil.

 

Endeavour Financial TSE:EDV

 

Luckily I bought most of those around November/December last year and am up quiet nicely, over x2 on all except EDV with SLW being my best at +250%. I have been trading with HOC but the rest I am on buy and hold. I agree they maybe hit initially with the coming crash, but feel they will recover very quickly as bullion will go up during the crash IMO. Who knows we may go into hyperinflation before the crash happens. I will not touch my bullion even if I think the shares are going to move faster, I treat my bullion as cash in storage.

 

As you can see I am quiet silver biased on my shares.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fair enough, I'm glad that you can make a few bob with FX plays. That takes a fair amount of nouse and i don't really have it! I presume you may be using Gmoney? You can move fairly quickly from cash to metals. I'd personally be worried about not having exposure to metals if/when the big move up occurs, you may be able to move quick enough, or you may not. I think we'll see some fireworks relatively shortly either way.

Yes, I have a GM account as I said in my post. I am currently 38% FX via multi-currency accounts, 38% GM and 24% physical. On the seasonal downturn next spring I will go to 60-70% physical. If there is no downturn then I will hit the button on GM's physical devlivery option and collect from Bairds or the vault myself in a mix of gold & silver.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...