SILVER

[halight]

Silver Institute Releases Annual Jeweler Survey Report

Dr. Jeffrey Lewis | April 5, 2012 - 7:11am

 

 

 

 

http://www.SilverSeek.com/commentary/silver-institute-releases-annual-jeweler-survey-report

[Perishabull]

Blythe Masters with a myth to dispel....;

 

 

"JPMorgan Not Speculating on Commodities: Blythe Masters

JP Morgan Chase is not in the commodities speculation business, Blythe Masters, head of global commodities for the bank, told CNBC Thursday.

 

"It's not part of our business model. It would be wrong and we don't do it," she said.The misperception, rampant in the blogosphere, comes from what JPMorgan does for clients, Masters said.

 

"We store significant amounts of commodities, for instance silver, on behalf of customers. We operate vaults in New York City, in Singapore and in London. Often when customers have that metal stored in our facilities they hedge it on a forward basis through JPMorgan, which in turn hedges in the commodities market," she said.

 

 

 

"If you see only the hedges and our activity in the futures market but you aren't aware of the underlying client position that we're hedging, then it would suggest inaccurately that we're running a large directional position," she added. "In fact that's not the case at all. We have offsetting positions. We have no stake in whether prices rise or decline.""

 

Video at link

[andrew]

RH

 

I don't know how to post charts, but went to Yahoo Finance and got a two year chart comparing AGQ with SLV

 

The result was using AGQ had no advantage over SLV at all !!

 

You maybe increasing your risk over the two odd years time frame, without getting ANY benefit.

 

Hope this link works........

 

http://finance.yahoo...n&z=l&q=l&c=SLV

 

******Also posted in your trading volatility thread******

[romans holiday]

RH

 

I don't know how to post charts, but went to Yahoo Finance and got a two year chart comparing AGQ with SLV

 

The result was using AGQ had no advantage over SLV at all !!

 

You maybe increasing your risk over the two odd years time frame, without getting ANY benefit.

 

Hope this link works........

 

http://finance.yahoo...n&z=l&q=l&c=SLV

 

******Also posted in your trading volatility thread******

Thanks for posting that. Yes, this is a high risk trade. The kind of trade I'm looking for is to sell in the short/ medium term. On the chart you've posted that would be similiar to the first half of the chart where it spikes to 400%. The important thing about the trade is to sell on the spike... and to have bought on the dip. Just sitting for a fixed term would be a bit senseless.

 

The post above yours also thinks about hedging the Medium term of this instrument by using half of the AGQ position to sell and buy within the shorter term on smaller interim spikes/ dips. A hedge within a hedge so to speak.

[huntergatherer]

Silver is primed for a comeback

 

Posted 4/9/2012 6:00 AM

 

The U.S.monetary authorities will soon be ending their latest stimulus measure, Operation Twist , but investors have been expecting sluggish GDP growth and obstinate unemployment rate to drive further dollar-debasing measures.

 

Friday's weak non-farm payrolls report may lead to a rebound in expectations and a comeback for silver prices.

 

The return of the fear trade from a re-escalation of E.U. debt problems and heightened expectations of further easing by the Fed may drive silver prices over the next few months.

 

Further stimulus measures out of China, expected sometime in the second quarter, will also act to drive silver prices upward.

 

Gold has taken the spotlight over the last few years as inflation protection and a hedge on global economic uncertainty - but silver also fulfills that role.

 

http://community.nasdaq.com/News/2012-04/silver-is-primed-for-a-comeback.aspx?storyid=132337

[halight]

JP Morgan Silver Manipulation

 

 

(And why you need to know why silver is headed up beyond $500/oz.)

 

Silver Stock Report

 

 

http://www.silverseek.com/article/jp-morgan-silver-manipulation

 

There is a lot to read at the link for the story.

 

But I do find it hard to believe that we could see $500 silver.

[halight]

Does the Ubiquitous Red in the Silver Herald a Trend Reversal or Higher Future Profits?

 

http://www.silverseek.com/article/does-ubiquitous-red-silver-herald-trend-reversal-or-higher-future-profits

 

Yellow and silver are our favorite colors, but red is what we are seeing on the boards this week after the U.S. central bank dashed hopes for more monetary stimulus and a weakened euro weighed on sentiment. Silver and gold were caught in a broad market sell-off which spread across commodities and equities. Bullion lost more than 3 percent over two days after the U.S. Federal Reserve released minutes from its last policy meeting which showed policy makers were less inclined to launch more monetary stimulus. This was strange since the Fed did not explicitly take QE3 off the table. In fact, according to the minutes, if the recovery stumbles, or if inflation is too low, the Fed is already prepared to launch QE3. Press accounts report that the sentiment dimmed precious metals' appeal as an inflation hedge.

 

Read more at link

[Carlton]

JP Morgan Silver Manipulation

 

 

(And why you need to know why silver is headed up beyond $500/oz.)

 

Silver Stock Report

 

 

http://www.silverseek.com/article/jp-morgan-silver-manipulation

 

There is a lot to read at the link for the story.

 

But I do find it hard to believe that we could see $500 silver.

Coming from Jason Hommel $500 is a lowball.

 

To prepare a reasonable estimate of a top we would need to know: how much future monetary inflation, how much future price de/inflation, the future velocity of money, and the size of future defaults.

[halight]

“Silver is my second largest holding, just behind gold. I am projecting that silver rises to about $100 per ounce over the next 18 months.”

 

 

http://maxkeiser.com/2012/04/13/silver-is-my-second-largest-holding-just-behind-gold-i-am-projecting-that-silver-rises-to-about-100-per-ounce-over-the-next-18-months/

[halight]

Keiser Report: Return of the Silver Liberation Army (E273)

 

[electroweak]

Double post...

 

Massive mega drop in COnMEX silver inventory at the CME.... will they default this time?

To whomever is withdrawing silver from these criminals. PLEASE KEEP IT UP! IT IS WORKING

 

http://www.24hgold.com/english/interactive_chart.aspx?title=COMEX%20WAREHOUSES%20REGISTERED%20SILVER&etfcode=COMEX%20WAREHOUSES%20REGISTERED&etfcodecom=SILVER

[giantbat]

Double post...

 

Massive mega drop in COnMEX silver inventory at the CME.... will they default this time?

To whomever is withdrawing silver from these criminals. PLEASE KEEP IT UP! IT IS WORKING

 

http://www.24hgold.com/english/interactive_chart.aspx?title=COMEX%20WAREHOUSES%20REGISTERED%20SILVER&etfcode=COMEX%20WAREHOUSES%20REGISTERED&etfcodecom=SILVER

 

I agree supply is reducing, the lack of a full y axis paints a more extreme picture. Things could amble on for nearly two years and not run out. How did supply jump up last time?

[huntergatherer]

Comex silver stocks hit highest in at least 10 years

 

Silver stockpiles in Comex-monitored warehouses rose to their highest level in at least 10 years, showing near-term supply of the metal is plentiful as mine output holds at record levels and the global economic recovery struggles for traction.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/16/precious-silver-stocks-idUSL2E8FGHUI20120416

[drbubb]

JP Morgan Silver Manipulation

Silver Stock Report

http://www.silverseek.com/article/jp-morgan-silver-manipulation

/ from that link / :

 

It is being exposed, and JP Morgan is failing, and losing money on their scheme.

 

On April 5th, we were given the gift of JP Morgan's Blythe Masters giving a TV interview on CNBC where she was trying to claim that JP Morgan does not hold any position in the silver market, but rather, is hedging client long positions in silver.

 

Blythe says, "We store significant amounts of commodities, for instance silver, on behalf of customers. We operate vaults in New York City, in Singapore and in London. Often when customers have that metal stored in our facilities they hedge it on a forward basis through JPMorgan, which in turn hedges in the commodities market," she said.

 

"If you see only the hedges and our activity in the futures market but you aren't aware of the underlying client position that we're hedging, then it would suggest inaccurately that we're running a large directional position," she added. "In fact that's not the case at all. We have offsetting positions. We have no stake in whether prices rise or decline."

 

The article and TV interview are here:

JPMorgan Not Speculating on Commodities: Blythe Masters

http://www.cnbc.com/id/46969993

 

Somebody is Lying here !

The headline says the EXACT OPPOSITE of what Blythe Masters said.

 

With no more evidence than this (and having worked in a similar job at Chase,

and knowing here husband) I tend to believe Blythe.

 

Be careful with the "spin" coming from Silver perma-Bulls like this one !

[drbubb]

"If you see only the hedges and our activity in the futures market but you aren't aware of the underlying client position that we're hedging, then it would suggest inaccurately that we're running a large directional position," she added. "In fact that's not the case at all. We have offsetting positions. We have no stake in whether prices rise or decline."[/i]

Jason Hommel reveals here how completely clueless he is:

 

"Excuse me, my instinct tells me that clients don't want their long silver positions hedged, or sold short. Why would a client with a long silver position want the bank to create an offsetting short position for the client? If you buy stock or shares in a company, do you want your brokerage firm to short the company you just bought to "protect" you from upside gains? This explanation makes no sense."

 

Prices only go up, right Jason ???

 

If JPM is "manipulating" the price it might be, repeat might be,

because "someone" is giving them a large position to go out and hedge.

 

If JPM were taking huge naked positions in Silver and Gold, they

would have to report them in their statements. There are reporting

requirements, and statutory limits on risk, that make me think that

Blythe just might be speaking the truth in the video.

 

Hommel should "go back to school" and learn a few things before

displaying his ignorance on the web

[halight]

I'm not sure if I believe that the price is being controlled, THe silver Market is a very small Market . If the price was being controlled in whatever way, being up or down then as it's so small a Market it should show up everyday

 

That is my thinking anyway. I'm sort of on the fence with it..

[halight]

Bearish pattern of thSilver has formed a "Descending Triangle"

 

Silver has formed a "Descending Triangle" on the daily chart. A descending triangle shows decreasing demand and an increase in supply with each rally off of a fixed level of horizontal support. When the demand at that level has been depleted, the floor underneath can collapse with new supply (those who were long in the current open interest throwing in the towel) and old supply (the previous sellers piling it on to make it hurt good).

 

Read more http://www.silverseek.com/article/bearish-pattern-day-silver

[halight]

How long until silver breaks out of its consolidation phase and heads higher?

 

If you look at the graph below you can clearly see the mini-spike in silver prices last April and the sideways consolidation since then. There was no true spike in prices because there has been no subsequent collapse. Indeed, the silver price has been well supported in the $30-35 an ounce range.

 

Read more http://www.silverseek.com/commentary/how-long-until-silver-breaks-out-its-consolidation-phase-and-heads-higher

[Peppa Pig]

How long until silver breaks out of its consolidation phase and heads higher?

 

If you look at the graph below you can clearly see the mini-spike in silver prices last April and the sideways consolidation since then. There was no true spike in prices because there has been no subsequent collapse. Indeed, the silver price has been well supported in the $30-35 an ounce range.

 

Read more http://www.silverseek.com/commentary/how-long-until-silver-breaks-out-its-consolidation-phase-and-heads-higher

is this fella on drugs. 'there was no true spike in prices'

 

what do you call $17 to $49 in the space of a couple of months!

 

this correction was well on the cards. i have been putting money in the mining stocks since the beginning of april. i am nearly all in, so wish me luck

[halight]

is this fella on drugs. 'there was no true spike in prices'

 

what do you call $17 to $49 in the space of a couple of months!

 

this correction was well on the cards. i have been putting money in the mining stocks since the beginning of april. i am nearly all in, so wish me luck

 

 

Well Good luck!

 

I do not have any mining stocks. I have looked at some but i just can not bring myself to buy any. Its that i do not believe that are under valued . Yes sure the price of Gold and silver has gone up and the mining stocks have not really gone anywhere the lat few years. But with mining you have big risks. This i believe off sets the stock price form the Gold/silver/copper whatever price.

The minening stocks are at a fair price i feel. but Im not going to bet on them going to the moon anytime soon.

 

I hope that you can make some money on them

 

 

As for what you posted about that story. You made a very good point! Thanks for adding your view

[Peppa Pig]

Well Good luck!

 

I do not have any mining stocks. I have looked at some but i just can not bring myself to buy any. Its that i do not believe that are under valued . Yes sure the price of Gold and silver has gone up and the mining stocks have not really gone anywhere the lat few years. But with mining you have big risks. This i believe off sets the stock price form the Gold/silver/copper whatever price.

The minening stocks are at a fair price i feel. but Im not going to bet on them going to the moon anytime soon.

 

I hope that you can make some money on them

 

 

As for what you posted about that story. You made a very good point! Thanks for adding your view

 

i will be brave and show my hand for future reference. here is my disposition to date:-

 

issue / avg price paid per share (profit or loss) relative position size

 

SVM 6.6075 (-3.9%) 5

SSRI 14.095 (-4.5%) 8

PAAS 20.24 (-8.5%) 8

KGC 9.254 (-4.1%) 4

GPL 1.95 (-0.5%) 2

FSM 3.979 (-8.8%) 2

 

i am running out of money now and i am wondering if these buggers will ever stop falling

if the stocks keep falling relative to silver i will sell some silver and keep buying them.

 

i would like to be more diverse in the sector but these are the only stocks that are getting a YES from my valuation model. kgc is the most compelling of all - it is off the charts! what is wrong with kgc? or perhaps there is something wrong with my valuation model ! i plan to buy more kgc in the next few days. may the lord have mercy on my soul

 

i suppose the selling has to end some day. if the price of silver collapse tomorrow, no one would be surprised. that is why i think we're nearly done. in 2008, the collpase was a total shock. who was that irritating commentator who was heard on broadcast almost in tears?

[Ziknew]

i will be brave and show my hand for future reference. here is my disposition to date:-

 

issue / avg price paid per share (profit or loss) relative position size

 

SVM 6.6075 (-3.9%) 5

SSRI 14.095 (-4.5%) 8

PAAS 20.24 (-8.5%) 8

KGC 9.254 (-4.1%) 4

GPL 1.95 (-0.5%) 2

FSM 3.979 (-8.8%) 2

 

i am running out of money now and i am wondering if these buggers will ever stop falling

if the stocks keep falling relative to silver i will sell some silver and keep buying them.

 

i would like to be more diverse in the sector but these are the only stocks that are getting a YES from my valuation model. kgc is the most compelling of all - it is off the charts! what is wrong with kgc? or perhaps there is something wrong with my valuation model ! i plan to buy more kgc in the next few days. may the lord have mercy on my soul

 

i suppose the selling has to end some day. if the price of silver collapse tomorrow, no one would be surprised. that is why i think we're nearly done. in 2008, the collpase was a total shock. who was that irritating commentator who was heard on broadcast almost in tears?

You are doing better than me.

 

I have all of those shares (all bought within 1 year) and I am well down...

 

SVM -17.02%

SSRI -36.95%

PAAS -20.38%

KGC -32.28%

GPL -24.74%

FSM -17.58%

 

I wish I had a valuation model

[Peppa Pig]

You are doing better than me.

 

I have all of those shares (all bought within 1 year) and I am well down...

 

SVM -17.02%

SSRI -36.95%

PAAS -20.38%

KGC -32.28%

GPL -24.74%

FSM -17.58%

 

I wish I had a valuation model

 

it is only luck that i began buying fairly recently. i know your portfolio looks bad, i think it is the nature of this sector to go to violent extremes. if i had begun earlier last year i would have started buying some of those long before you did believing they were undervalued which shows either i am totally wrong or these stocks are exceptionally cheap.

 

i actually made an error in my calculation and the correction of which shows silvercorp metals to be far more undervalued than i originally had it and so i bought more immediately the market opened today.

 

this puts my weighting of silvercorp to 9 with an average of 6.51 per share.

 

I am willing to share my valuation with members here. Hopefully we can exchange and compare data :-

 

Issue / BUY / HOLD / SELL

 

SVM 9.95 12.07 14.19

PAAS 22.17 32.62 43.07

SSRI 13.92 22.19 30.46

KGC 18.97 26.72 34.46

 

notes. i know my average price for SSRI is a little higher than 13.92, above, but i believe this stock bottomed a few months ago around 12.50 and i missed it! i thought the price was close enough though.

 

i cannot value gpl or fsm because i haven't enough quarters of data and i have bought them purely and simply because they have fallen a LOT and they are recommendations from paid for subscriptions. i would like to buy pvg, ag and exk but since i have not yet the sophistication to value them, i will only buy on a significant price break, such as fsm recently.

 

i am no dr.bubb i know, but we're all here to share our experiences, regardless of our level of sophistication and i hope my attempts here are not causing too many sniggers

[halight]

Silver ETP Holdings Slump by Most in More Than Four Years

 

Silver holdings in exchange-traded products slumped by $626.9 million as prices traded near a three-month low and exchange stockpiles climbed, underscoring concern a global economic slowdown may curb demand.

 

http://www.silverseek.com/article/silver-etp-holdings-slump-most-more-four-years

[halight]

Silver Market Update

 

Is silver becoming a bearmarket, or is a bottom pattern completing that will lead to a major new uptrend soon? That is the big conundrum facing investors and speculators in the sector and in this update it will become apparent that the situation must resolve itself with a decisive move soon, one way or the other.

 

http://www.silverseek.com/article/silver-market-update-3