ziknik Posted September 6, 2008 Report Share Posted September 6, 2008 But a dealer who avoids buying into a crash, makes more than a dealer who does not. Since July the falls have been precipitous. I can't believe many seasoned dealers were in any hurry to catch that knife. How many developers are buying land at the moment? Well, they make money by dealing in property, but they also know when it is actually more profitable to shift what you have asap and then to just sit on your arse until market conditions improve. … Yes, speculators can make huge profits by buying and selling at the right time. But quality professional coin dealers are not speculators. Developers are not buying land at the moment because they can’t sell the land. That’s my point. Coin dealers can sell the coins (if they can get them) because there are people queuing up to buy. I know I can’t prove nothing either way, but I would still be buying if all coin dealers put there price to 5x spot because I know I can sell at this price on ebay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johan van der Smut Posted September 6, 2008 Report Share Posted September 6, 2008 1. I am terrified - but that is usually a decent contrarian signal [cos all other silver holders are equally terrified & a lot will have sold] If I'd had tech stocks in 1999 or banking shares in the past year, I might have been terrified when the price had dropped 40%. Still wasn't anywhere near the bottom, though. Or am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrongmove Posted September 6, 2008 Report Share Posted September 6, 2008 Developers are not buying land at the moment because they can’t sell the land. They can sell the land all right. Just not at a profit. But I can't prove anything either. I guess we shall see if this mysterious shortage continues after a period of stabilised or rising prices . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qwerty Posted September 7, 2008 Report Share Posted September 7, 2008 If I'd had tech stocks in 1999 or banking shares in the past year, I might have been terrified when the price had dropped 40%. Still wasn't anywhere near the bottom, though. Or am I missing something? I think you are you said you own Etf's in Pm's are they denominated in dollars or £ when you value/sell them through a broker ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted September 7, 2008 Report Share Posted September 7, 2008 ... But I can't prove anything either. I guess we shall see if this mysterious shortage continues after a period of stabilised or rising prices . OK, but for clarity. I didn’t say there was a shortage of coins. I said logistical problems meeting demand EDIT: ****, I did say short of coins in #160 above. I phoned Chards this morning to get prices for silver coins. I was hoping weak hands will have dumped coins in the last few days. I asked about shortages. I was told that Chards have heard rumours (from other people) about Perth Mint having shortages, but not experienced any problems with Perth Mint themselves. They’ve not got a lot of coins in stock. No Maples, no Eagles. Apparently, there is massive demand for silver coins at the moment and they are having trouble with the logistics associated with transport and shipping. They just can’t get the coins delivered in the quantity they need to meet demand. The have a big shipment stuck in Germany at the moment and another coming from Canada soon. I presume Chards and others do not have contracts in place for the delivery chain to meet the recent demand and are now struggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrongmove Posted September 7, 2008 Report Share Posted September 7, 2008 OK, but for clarity. I didn’t say there was a shortage of coins. I said logistical problems meeting demand EDIT: ****, I did say short of coins in #160 above. I do take your points Zitnik, and the fact that it is you making the points (rather than some [funda]mentalist VI who is incapable of seeing the other side of the argument) makes me take them seriously. I think it is best to just wait and see what happens as the price evolves from here. If the situation persists after a few weeks of stable prices, then I will definitely come round. but in the meantime, in the absence of any evidence either way, I will trust Occam's razor (and maybe buy a few silver coins from azazel's link, just in case. I am spending too much time here - those silver coins look a bargain at £10 just as an object, never mind an investment! ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted September 7, 2008 Report Share Posted September 7, 2008 Difference between trades and long-term investment And whereas the long-term investors tend to look at the fundamental value of something, traders tend to focus only on the prices. I can see prices being caught up in a vortex in a possible crisis [whether it is deflationary or inflationary in my mind is beside the point for reasons I have postd elsewhere]. This sole focus on prices will lead to massive confusion [possibly panic] as prices become extremely volatile in a marketplace unable to establish the value of anything. Edit to add: Go long term for peace of mind. Trade at your peril. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johan van der Smut Posted September 7, 2008 Report Share Posted September 7, 2008 I think you are you said you own Etf's in Pm's are they denominated in dollars or £ when you value/sell them through a broker ? Dollars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Pipples Posted September 7, 2008 Report Share Posted September 7, 2008 The recent posts on this thread made me suddenly think "Hold on a sec, has there been a significant change in the community's view on Silver that I've missed?" and so I asked the question. Thought this worthy of a bump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted September 7, 2008 Report Share Posted September 7, 2008 Anyone who has changed their minds because of this fabricated sell-off should listen to this week's Financial Sense Newshour show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted September 7, 2008 Report Share Posted September 7, 2008 I second that - In the Big Picture, Eric King interviews British Ian MacDonald, Executive Director - Gold & Precious Metals Dubai Multi Commodities Centre in Dubai. [Part 3a] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HPCsoYESTERDAY Posted September 7, 2008 Report Share Posted September 7, 2008 I do take your points Zitnik, and the fact that it is you making the points (rather than some [funda]mentalist VI who is incapable of seeing the other side of the argument) makes me take them seriously. I think it is best to just wait and see what happens as the price evolves from here. If the situation persists after a few weeks of stable prices, then I will definitely come round. but in the meantime, in the absence of any evidence either way, I will trust Occam's razor (and maybe buy a few silver coins from azazel's link, just in case. I am spending too much time here - those silver coins look a bargain at £10 just as an object, never mind an investment! ) Time to buy silver, when wrongmove is tempted to buy, the silver bottom must be in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrongmove Posted September 7, 2008 Report Share Posted September 7, 2008 Time to buy silver, when wrongmove is tempted to buy, the silver bottom must be in! If only my timing was that good! I called the top of the uk housing market about 4 years early! Still, like the PM bulls here, I stuck to my guns and it seems to be working out in the end........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinny Posted September 7, 2008 Report Share Posted September 7, 2008 >I second that - In the Big Picture [FINANCIAL SENSE NEWSHOUR], Eric King interviews British Ian MacDonald, Executive >Director - Gold & Precious Metals >Dubai Multi Commodities Centre in Dubai. [Part 3a]" Agree - was wonderful UNTIL King asked where he say gold going........ "Up, unless there is a world recession, which is unlikely as latest US GDP figures are encouraging [paraphrased]" Not what I was wanting to hear. On the other hand.... Jim Rogers [paraphrasing again] - "I am the worst trader in the world, I just like to buy when prices are declining." He is buying silver, amongst other commodities. http://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com/ ........makes me feel a bit more chilled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gasket37 Posted September 7, 2008 Report Share Posted September 7, 2008 I second that - In the Big Picture, Eric King interviews British Ian MacDonald, Executive Director - Gold & Precious Metals Dubai Multi Commodities Centre in Dubai. [Part 3a] i listened to that but i thought it was a bit of a puff piece for MacDonalds business to be honest. anyone hear Puru Saxena on this weeks goldseek radio (about ½ way in)? he'd predicted the recent fall from $1,000 to $750 - so was pretty damned close he reckoned he'd got a lot of hate mail at the time! he's back in the market if i'd heard it right (can't be more specific -i listen to this stuff when i'm out running and i was being chased by a dog at the critical moment) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted September 8, 2008 Report Share Posted September 8, 2008 Here is what happened to silver/gold in the last reccession 2001/2003 Why the poor performance from silver? etals.png] Can you re-produce that chart up to today’s date please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted September 8, 2008 Report Share Posted September 8, 2008 ... he's back in the market if i'd heard it right (can't be more specific -i listen to this stuff when i'm out running and i was being chased by a dog at the critical moment) ...and you can't be bothered to rewind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted September 8, 2008 Report Share Posted September 8, 2008 If only my timing was that good! I called the top of the uk housing market about 4 years early! Still, like the PM bulls here, I stuck to my guns and it seems to be working out in the end........ FWIW, I’m expecting silver to fall further in price. I think we will see oil sub $100 and silver will come down with it. I’ve got some dry powder in my GM account waiting for the price to come down some more. I’m not waiting to try and spot the bottom before I buy. I’m not lucky enough to get these things right so I’m buying a little more on every big price drop. I don’t see price drops as a loss. Each Oz of silver is still an Oz of silver regardless of price. I haven’t got any intention to sell my silver coins at the moment. I’m trying to build up a holding to keep for the rest of my life (and then I will gift it to my kids at least 7 years before I croak it ;) ). I haven’t got many coins at the moment because I don’t want to keep anymore than is covered by standard house insurance and I’d like to think that I’ve got at least 50 years left to buy I’m going to swap my GM silver for gold at some point and then sell the gold when I buy a house regardless of price/profit/loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gasket37 Posted September 8, 2008 Report Share Posted September 8, 2008 ...and you can't be bothered to rewind? ah - you have no idea how naff my MP3 player is - it cost less than the price on a oz of silver. anyhoo, just for you i listened to the interview again - it starts in the second hour - scroll it forward to just after the (tin foil hattish) adverts. saxena explains his positioning in march '08 at around 1 hour 2 minutes in. sounds like he sold out - he got some grief from some of his subscribers as some of them reckoned silver was going to $30 - $40. FWIW i remember him being on FSN being cautious on the metals some months back. he is "stunned" by the overshoot in silver though - has been buying gold again at around $800 and silver at $15. he says the fundamentals are unchanged. on mining stocks he thinks they are oversold as of now, but prefers bullion. he thinks too many risks in the stocks - management/politics/energy costs etc. he says use ETF's to go long or short (e.g. DBP) rather than use mining stocks - he doesn't hold any mining stocks! bullish on commodities in general - population growth / BRICS increase in living standards / underinvestment in mining in the past. reason for silver price fall - CB intervention (paulson propping up the dollar) and setting up a new round of rate cuts, justified by falling commodity prices. US election is the key. saxena says "most people who are calling for deflation don't understand the monetary system" - he is an inflationista. money supply is still increasing worldwide rapidly and the fall in asset prices (e.g. housing) is just that, a fall in asset prices. CB deflation talk is just propaganda / scare talk. the world has a massive inflation problem. fannie/freddie bailout has increase national debt from $5 to $10 trillion - "a disaster" (unfunded liabilties are $64 trillion or 400% of GDP. money printing will find its way to people eventually. wall street benefits and this is immoral. let businesses go bust e.g. ford/GM. bailouts will be terrible for the $ / world financial system in general. interest rates set by the bond market and not the fed. long bondholders are out of their minds and foreigners will eventually give up holding US bonds & market will collapse. fed will have to increase rates like volker did. asian CB have been more honest about the inflation problem hence fall in their stock markets. in the west, haven't been honest and there will be a stampede out of paper when people realise what is going on. he is back into china now their stock market has halved, despite inflation scare as china raised reserve requirements etc. better CB management in general by china. also buying in vietnam. still a long way to go in bank failures. CDS market failure next shoe to drop. avoid financials however cheap - taxpayer bailouts. european banks are leveraged more than US ones! however get money out of the US banking system. forecast - panic selling is likely to be over now. gold to go back to $1,000 and silver to $17. [i could catch when this is supposed to be!!] still interesting stuff - pick the bones out of that lot. me? i ordered some silver philarmonics @ £9.79 including the dreaded VAT last night from coininvestdirect - so you can expect the price to carry on falling in the short run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johan van der Smut Posted September 8, 2008 Report Share Posted September 8, 2008 expect the price to carry on falling in the short run. It's just bounced off $11.90 and yet I'm strangely Zen-like about it all. Fannie and Freddie have reassured me of the fundamentals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aardvark Posted September 8, 2008 Report Share Posted September 8, 2008 It's just bounced off $11.90 and yet I'm strangely Zen-like about it all. Fannie and Freddie have reassured me of the fundamentals. i feel the same - just got home, checked the spot - phew!!. But i know the system is screwed, so i'm actually happier knowing i have some 'real' money lying around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted September 8, 2008 Report Share Posted September 8, 2008 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YUUrlxhHWBo Talking about real money - bailout is not the end - very grim outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johan van der Smut Posted September 8, 2008 Report Share Posted September 8, 2008 I clicked on to this related video. The most recent comment is: "Karl Denninger is Cgnao, and I claim my £5." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted September 8, 2008 Report Share Posted September 8, 2008 Not sure how reliable this information is. Still interesting. https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=24...164371126975602 Mr Morgan, I am a investor in silver from India who would like to give you the information regarding the silver contract which expired yesterday. The closing price of silver in indian rupees was 18800 per kg but the exchange over here settled all the contract at 20040. Investors who wanted delivery for their silver contracts are not getting it. The exchange is settling their contracts by giving them a marginal premium to the closing price of the contract. Implicitly that means there is a DEFAULT OF SILVER IN THE INDIAN EXCHANGE. Regards Sunil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HPCsoYESTERDAY Posted September 8, 2008 Report Share Posted September 8, 2008 Not sure how reliable this information is. Still interesting. https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=24...164371126975602 Interesting. Not quite the same thing, but I ordered from an international dealer (non-eurozone) a while ago, went through the motions, clearly stated where the del. address was and got the shipping charges up and processed the order............ 3 hours later I got a revised invoice with an additional £100 added because the shipping charges were wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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