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HPC - Giving it a rest (for a while at least)

Why bother with the many jerks there?

================================

 

hpc-1_normal.jpg..hpc-2.jpg

 

Several of my posts were deleted there recently (without any explanation given)

 

I posted this on my Y-shaped clone thread there: (with over 8,200 hits !)

 

I see that quite a number of my posts are getting deleted.

I shall probably give the HPC website a rest for some time.

(Feb 16th)

 

... and got some good support from various channels.

But also some silly postings like this:

 

1/ "cleaned-up" version, without the two original insults follows:

that's because you post s*****, Blubb. With constant references back to your unlicensed 'investment advice' webshite.

If you want to generate traffic, do it legitimately rather than trying to ride piggyback on a successful forum.

(PropertyGuru)

 

2/

DrBubb does seem to be shamelessly hawking his site at every opportunity, perhaps the mods feel that this contravenes the forum rule "No business offers or advertising of any kind".

IIRC Financial Planner had a special agreement with FUBRA so that he could have his web site link in his sig. I could be wrong but I don't think DrBubb has ever mentioned a similar agreement.

He should be thankful to be treated so leniently considering his repeated violation of forum rules, I'd ban him myself.

(Mish Mash)

 

== == ==

 

Frankly, why bother with such a site?

 

Putting quality postings on a site like that, is "casting pearls before swine."

(I have asked that HPC reprimand or suspend PG, but I doubt that they will.)

 

Apart from here, I think I may focus my future postings on sites like:

 

+ Chris Martenson.. : http://www.chrismartenson.com/forums/chrismartensoncom-discussions/general-discussion-and-questions

+ The Kunstler Cast : http://kunstlercast.com/forum

 

If HPC-ers are interested in my postings, they can visit here, FinancialSense, or two sites above.

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HPC - I'm giving it a rest (for a while at least)

Why bother with such a group of jerks?

1/

that's because you post s*****, Blubb. With constant references back to your unlicensed 'investment advice' webshite.

If you want to generate traffic, do it legitimately rather than trying to ride piggyback on a successful forum.

(PropertyGuru)

 

2/

DrBubb does seem to be shamelessly hawking his site at every opportunity, perhaps the mods feel that this contravenes the forum rule "No business offers or advertising of any kind".

IIRC Financial Planner had a special agreement with FUBRA so that he could have his web site link in his sig. I could be wrong but I don't think DrBubb has ever mentioned a similar agreement.

He should be thankful to be treated so leniently considering his repeated violation of forum rules, I'd ban him myself.

(Mish Mash)

== == ==

 

Frankly, why bother with such a site?

 

I see no evidence of investment advice DrBubb, but only opinions and discussions, I would ignore the noise, quite frankly there are some more important things to consider http://www.smh.com.au/business/fed-fires-w...00219-oktm.html

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I see no evidence of investment advice DrBubb, but only opinions and discussions, I would ignore the noise, quite frankly there are some more important things to consider http://www.smh.com.au/business/fed-fires-w...00219-oktm.html

Yes. The Discount Rate rise (+0.25%) is big news.

 

I thought I should start this thread in case some folks are lurking here from HPC,

and wonder why I have stopped posting, and defending some absurd accusations, like this one:

(the trolls try to gang up, since they know "I am giving it a rest", and will not defend myself there.)

 

I hate doing it, but have found if you do not defend, the liars feed on each other.

 

= = = = =

monty1080, on 18 February 2010, said:

 

I was wondering when someone was going to do that ! Haven't been here much recently, but has Bubb admitted he was wrong about predicting HP falling in Q4 2009 ?? Probably not.

 

... and the following was posted by the ridiculous (howlowcanyougo2008) who cannot even spell,

and with 34 postings to his name is an obvious retread with prior sign-ons.

QUOTE

Your too kind. How about being wrong in :

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

and now, o yes it's 6 months away.........again

UNQUOTE

 

What these troll-posters fail to report is:

+ In late 2005/early 2006 when property shares soared, I acknowledged a premature call of a top in 2005

+ I called "the peak" in July 2007 (see

) two months before the actual top

+ On 4.April.2009 I started a thread calling for a rally in UK property prices

+ After getting for a signal from the Builders in Q4.2009, I called a likely top in winter 2009/10

 

Chart

hpiuk2009calls.gif

 

No one on HPC in a position of authority has shown the least interest in keeping the record accurate,

despite my having a thread there which collects all my major property related comment, and can be

easily referenced.

 

-----: Buying Time? Dead Cat Bounce? Or Cycle Low? (24,000+ views)

LINK: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=113818

 

So, I repeat, why bother wasting time informing or sometimes educating a group of people who want to

mis-represent, delete useful posts, and permit constant inaccuracies and regular abuse, to someone

who is still the 5th most proliferic posters on the HPC website. (Those who are interested, probably know

how to find their way to this website.)

 

I hope we can all do a better job here on GEI, and I am encouraged to see much fewer unfair and

abuse posts here now.

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To see off the Trolls over on HPC, I posted this...

 

What DrBubb thinks of us (from a thread on GEI):

(he then takes three lines out of their context)

Hopefully, if he feels like this, he won't be back.

 

Perhaps, I should interrupt my rest briefly, to make clear the the "swine" reference applies to those who make

Troll-like postings on my threads. For example: MM, PG, and HLCYG2008, who for their own bizarre reasons

wish to spin and misrepresent my postings here.

 

A more accurate recapitulation follows:

What some troll-posters fail to report is:

+ In late 2005/early 2006 when property shares soared, I acknowledged a premature call of a top in 2005

+ I called "the peak" in July 2007 (see

) two months before the actual top

+ On 4.April.2009 I started a thread calling for a rally in UK property prices

+ After getting for a signal from the Builders in Q4.2009, I called a likely top in winter 2009/10

 

Chart

hpiuk2009calls.gif

 

All my recent major property related comment, and can be easily referenced.

 

-----: Buying Time? Dead Cat Bounce? Or Cycle Low? (24,000+ views)

LINK: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=113818

 

Some may here may choke a bit, when they bite into the shiny white and round objects, so stay alert.

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I agree Dr B

 

The quality of HPC has gone downhill recently.

 

Your voice of logic and experience rings true. And thanks for highlighting sites such as All Allan and Planet Yelnick - these have given me hope in the coming meltdown that I will be prepared.

 

When I see the likes of Blanchflower on Channel 4 news last night, I know that govts will take the "easy path" mirage...where are the Austrians?

 

Keep up the good work.

 

Borassic Lint

 

(Ponzi over at HPC)

 

 

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Keep up the good work.

Borassic Lint

(Ponzi over at HPC)

Thnx, kindly, B. (& P.)

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HPC - I'm giving it a rest (for a while at least)

Why bother with such a group of jerks?

================================

 

Several of my posts were deleted there recently (without any explanation given)

 

So were mine 2 years ago so I haven't bothered since. It's like the bear version of Singing Pig screaming blue murder about the evil BTL empires formed over the last ten years. Yawn Yawn :lol:

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DrBubb,

 

I've been following you on HPC and just arrived here after you announced you were stopping posting there.

I've been holding on buying for quite a while now, partly thanks to your insights. And I'm glad I did (so far)

 

I'm eager to see how the UK housing market will unfold in the next months, seeing that properties for sale are now gently starting to pile up again, and inflation is coming back.

Of course, I'll be following your insights. Here :)

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DrBubb,

 

I've been following you on HPC and just arrived here after you announced you were stopping posting there.

I've been holding on buying for quite a while now, partly thanks to your insights. And I'm glad I did (so far)

 

I'm eager to see how the UK housing market will unfold in the next months, seeing that properties for sale are now gently starting to pile up again, and inflation is coming back.

Of course, I'll be following your insights. Here :)

 

Thank you, K. And welcome to GEI!

 

There is some haze in my crystal ball (as with anyone), but I think one thing is clear.

You can only justify current UK home prices if interest rates remain at record low levels,

and rents do not fall.

 

I don't think that Low rates, and stable rents are consistent with each other.

In fact, you could see rates rise (thanks to rising inflation), as rents fall (that's to job losses.)

That is called stagflation, and that is where the UK economy may be headed

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HPC - I'm giving it a rest (for a while at least)

Why bother with such a group of jerks?

Ah, not so nice when someone else is holding the big stick is it?

 

Not so nice when others label you a troll.

 

There is a sense of justice with so many posters wanting you banned.

 

Looks like the toys have left Bubbs pram.

 

PRICELESS :lol:

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I use the HPC forum mainly as a "news" resource these days, rather than for discussion.

 

This is mainly due to the immature postings that people there contribute to the discussion, purely because they've got nothing constructive to say.

 

I would imagine, therefore, that when they see one of Dr. B's posts of technical analysis and graphs, and well-thought-out reasoning of the direction of markets.... most of it is above them.

 

And people have a tendancy to shoot down things they don't understand.

 

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Mish Mash and Property Guru are making fools of themselves on the "other" side.

A good half dozen there seem to think they have lost control of their senses.

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Ah, not so nice when someone else is holding the big stick is it?

Not so nice when others label you a troll.

There is a sense of justice with so many posters wanting you banned.

Looks like the toys have left Bubbs pram.

PRICELESS :lol:

No comment.

Perhaps CJ will be welcome on HPC during his now-extended vacation from GEI,

as one of our mods here saw fit to ban CJ for one month based on an aggressive posting

on another thread. He was certainly doing his best to get suspended again

 

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I "gave HPC a rest" many months ago and finally migrated to GEI having been a long time lurker.

 

However, Dr Bubb, I would say that I was grateful for your posts on HPC not only because they were way more informative than most of the other offerings but also because they offered a link to this site. Apart from the HPC link via your posts, I very much doubt I would have found my way here.

 

If you give up posting altogether on HPC, no-one will be able to find their way from there to here - a move that I would thoroughly recommmend.

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I "gave HPC a rest" many months ago and finally migrated to GEI having been a long time lurker.

 

However, Dr Bubb, I would say that I was grateful for your posts on HPC not only because they were way more informative than most of the other offerings but also because they offered a link to this site. Apart from the HPC link via your posts, I very much doubt I would have found my way here.

 

If you give up posting altogether on HPC, no-one will be able to find their way from there to here - a move that I would thoroughly recommmend.

Thanks. I get your point.

And there are still many intelligent posters there, but they are surrounded by a crowd of "thugs",

who are not interested in debate - they just want to sling mud and post dismissive one-liners.

 

I do hope that a "willingness to debate" becomes/remains a core principle here on GEI

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Here's a good example of one of the more interesting posters from HPC.

This was posted on my "Buying Time? Dead Cat Bounce or Cycle Low?" thread: post #132

 

QUOTE /'DrBubb' date='21 January 2010 - 01:09 AM/

Thanks to Goldfinger on GEI for these charts.

Here's what happens when I put them together

001uae.png

 

It is telling me something different, those charts are crystal that firstly, the prolem is getting more extreme per cycle with a blow off in the final one, which ties in with the fact that it encapsulates one complete credit expansion cycle (this is also confirmed that it is taking a lower interest rate peak per subcycle to cause the crash), it is quite clear also from the graph that the actual crash does not happen during the rate rises but during the decreases, the crash each time is deflationary, i see no reason why it wont remain deflationary this time (which will at some point immediately morph into extreme inflation due to govt measures) those charts reinforce to me that this is going to be the severest crash of them all and it will happen in a zirp or negative interest rate environment because unlike in previous mini cycles reducing interest rates was enough to turn the tide they can only do the same this time by taking them negative.(Technically speaking, there is also a classic 70 yr H&S on the interest rates, especially if you take them another 10 years back to the 50s with the mandatory neckline retest in 2007 follwed by sharp reversal, i seriously wouldnt rule out central bank negative 10% interest rates once prices start declining again in the main leg down)

 

Im also pretty confident that the correct trendline is the bottom support line and that will take prices down to around 80K (the downside i think is that they will be the most affordable in decades but the credit / mortgage availability at that time will be practically the square root of feck all) possibly > 50% deposit requirement

 

The argument that we have seen "the end of a credit cycle" is consistent with Chris Martenson's work.

 

TDL should be posting here, don't you think?

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Bubb have you seen this on TMF - Seems your the high priest of HPC.

http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=1...=whole#11842921

Trouble is you predicted the UK crash for ~2005, as did I. And therefore the timing trump card is against you.

 

Thanks for point me to that, and welcome to GEI (3 years ago! But you don't post much.)

 

A statement like this:

"...has he ever predicted anything that has been right."

...is completely ridiculous.

 

I rely on my trading for my livelihood, and had I not got a few things right, I would have starved long ago, rather than being able to buy 10 flats in Hong Kong with 1/3 of my portfolio net worth. And now exiting 7 of those with a profit suggests I must have got something right.

 

But there are bullish idiots out there (probably originally from Singing Pig) who like to tear down anyone who ever said anything negative about property - the opiate of the UK sheeple.

 

If you are a member there, perhaps you can post this chart:

hpiuk2009calls.gif

 

...And maybe say something along these lines: "It looks like he got 2005 wrong, and a few things right since then. It will be interesting to see if the rally fizzles out this winter, as he seems to think will happen."

 

For those who criticise, it would be interesting to see what evidence they may have that they called it better.

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Dr Bubb gets a couple of mentions in this Downfall on Edinburgh Property prices. Strong language

LOL.

That's actually rather well done, if the language is strong.

That film sequence is a watching bit of film which has been used for all sorts of purposes.

 

Making those who have been prudent and patient feel bad, is a usage I hadn't seen before.

You can thank Gordon and his team for robbing the property market of long term health and common sense.

He has more in common with the Hitler character than Geneer, I reckon.

 

Here's the original and more-accurate version on which it was based:

Real Estate Downfall

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I have seen many of these 're-makes' and they never fail to make me laugh. Whilst the latest version may reflect present sentiment of sorts I don't think we have seen the end of these vids and I look forward to the future episodes...

Actually they are fabulous socionomic meters and Prechter would love them as they reflect perfectly the psychology of the moment. Perhaps someone could tell the story using the Dow as the benchmark rather than UK housing. That WOULD be interesting.

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(I am posting on HPC this long argument from the "Why UK prices will drop 30%" thread):

 

Here's a debate from a nameless source that may be of interest to some on HPC:

 

We are in the UK sold our house in 2007 and haven’t bought another yet. I have been bearish on property but now I’m having doubts.

I took a shoot at this on DrB's Diary:

They may try to keep rates low, but matters may spiral out of their control,

as they have in Greece, where a sovereign debt crisis broke out, pushing up rates for Greece.

 

Next stop for the crisis? It could be the UK.

Where 10 year Gilt rates have been climbing, and Builder shares are sliding on big volume.

 

UK Builders : BDEV : PSN

psn.gif

 

I don't understand how ANYONE can be bullish on UK prpoerty if the understand the vulnerability to rising rates,

and how susceptible Britain is to a sovereign debt crisis, and what that woudl do to mortgage rates.

 

Of course, no one could accuse UK property buyers of being savy analysts of global market.

Instead, they show courage (foolhardiness?) in the face of insurmountable odds.

 

== ==

 

Meantime, FTSE (UKX), is threaten to breakbelow a key moving average : UKX-chart

I will answer some individually:

 

Below is a list of the things that worry me. Feel free to shoot them down and try lift my gloom:

 

Financial Regulation/ Bailouts

When Brown created the FSA he abolished it. Despite the banks nearly failing nothing has changed, we still don’t have any. There are no limits on LTVs or salary multiples. The banks are too big to fail and left to self-regulate but all they care about are bonuses. I suspect that all this deferring bonuses is rubbish and later it will come out that staff are being given the cash behind the scenes. The banks are being forced to lend and each week mortgage availability seems to be improving. Santander 90% for FTBs today.

 

(When the next wave - Commercial property or credit cards hits - the banks will find there is little public support for another bailout. Where will the money come from for lending by ruined banks?)

 

QE/ Ultra-low rates

When it started the housing market picked up as people became worried about inflation and could see the value of their cash being eroded. I had hoped that QE was going to give badly indebted people a final chance to sell before prices fell. Higher mortgage deposits were required which seemed to be trying to tempt the cash rich into taking the hit as they can afford it. However now if the housing market starts stalling they will just keep extending QE. This is what Mervyn King was really saying this week. The UK doesn’t have an economy outside house price rises.

 

(The discipline will come from the market, which does not like excessive Sovereign debts. Ever hear of Iceland, Dubai, and Greece?

Creditors are frightened, and want higher rates to compensate for the risk.)

 

Equity and LTV

The UK has a lot higher proportion of house owners than other countries such as say Germany. If house prices have gone up 150% in a decade that means that someone buying a £100k house now has £150k+ in equity. They can afford a large deposit on a larger house and secure a cheaper mortgage, probably much cheaper than they have ever paid. Taken another way someone downsizing could be a cash buyer. Are low mortgage approvals now not as useful a guide as before due to the equity realised on previous purchases? Parents are sharing their equity with children and helping them buy by paying deposits and on it goes.

 

(Much of the percentage equity has been eroded through MEW-ing, and trading up to more expensive homes.

There is probably less net housing equity than 10-15 years ago, and what is there can get lost as home price fall.

The equity there is, is mostly in the hands of boomers, planning to use it @as their pensions.")

 

Wage inflation and National income

I think we have had massive wage inflation outside of your average family in the private sector. Just look at bankers, executive pay, BBC, NHS. I recently read about a council electrician earning £124k last year. There are lots of people who can afford houses no matter how overpriced they appear to me. Talk of freezing public sector pay is shutting the stable door after the horse has already bolted.

 

(That was true in 2005-7, but is not true now. Aggregate wages and salaries are going to fall as jobs are lost.)

 

Brainwashing and Sentiment

The newspapers and TV are not impartial when it comes to house prices. Such as the BBC try to put a HPI positive on everything they report – it’s BUY BUY BUY all the time.

 

(Sentiment alone cannot hold up an over-valued market. It feeds on itself until it reaches a peak, and then crashes.)

 

Second incomes and Lending multiples

When we bought in 1998 we were told 3 times main income, plus 1 times second income. Now it is 4 or 5 times joint income. The strange thing is that families are happy to do it. They will do anything to get on the property ladder. The rise of second income mortgages means that house prices will never return to the old affordability stats which were largely based on main income only.

 

(This is the argument of lemmings, who follow each other, even as they go right over the cliff. The way to beat them, is to become an intelligent contrarian and get off the ludicrous bandwagon. There is also a cycle in bank lending. The idiot bankers, who have no historical perspective, will let "competitive forces" to drive them into high risk lending, until it goes too far, and there is a debt and banking crisis. The housing bubble was only partly reflated, by cutting rates down to ultra-low levels, and pumping back up all the strained and near-broken sentiment. In 2007, we thought we had found the greatest fools, but they have been replenished by the magic elixir of ultra-low rates. I don'y think there is another round after this, excepting perhaps "dropping money from heliocopters" to get more income into people's hands. I wonder if currency markets will allow Britain to come to that end, as a way of temporarily escaping from the QE/low rate corner reckless policies have already painted Britain into.)

 

Government and "the public good"

The expenses scandal has proved that lots of our MPs are corrupt and only have their own interests at heart. They don’t care that lots of people cannot afford to buy a house. Lots of them have property portfolios partially funded by taxpayers via flipping houses. I expect that the next phase of trying to keep house prices inflated will be grants/tax breaks for landlords. Using the public’s council tax and income tax to prop up prices for landlords will be portrayed as if they are doing people a favour instead of pricing them out of the market and using their money to do it. The government may even give the house hungry people what they want - 50 year mortgages and retirement at 80.

 

(This can be stopped, if the housing-dispossessed fight it. If pampered bankers are a target for public anger, would not pampered landlords also be a target? Owner occupiers represent a big voting base. BTL property owners is a mcu smaller block.)

 

Sterling and its value

This is my big mistake as it is all I have. I had my chance but blew it. Now I cannot see how anyone holding sterling can win regarding house prices. I now see one of two outcomes:

 

1 Sterling continues as now with low interest rates for a long time. I cannot see how interest rates can rise while people/businesses in the UK have so much debt to service. This devalues my cash and gives people with mortgages longer to pay them down. House prices do not fall

 

2 Sterling collapses, interest rates rise a bit but that won’t be enough to protect the value of my cash against inflation. House prices won’t fall in desirable areas because those who exited sterling earlier on or foreigners will buy them. In less desirable areas house prices will fall a lot and there will be social unrest – but that won’t help me because I wouldn’t want to live there.

 

(Foriegners are not quite so foolish as you imagine. Especially when they will soon find that foreign property owners in the UK become an obvious target for the tax-hungry Inland Revenue. Where else will it be so easy to get more revenues? )

 

Of course I could try exit sterling now. I could gamble what I have on something I know little about, I have never been a financial investor. From my limited knowledge everything looks to be in a bubble in markets that are government rigged. My feeling is to try find a house to buy so at least I have something tangible.

 

I have been telling people to get out of Sterling for some months. I think this is the real achilles heal of all your arguments.

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