GOLD

[stobar]

Was searching for that and found it on Yahoo Tech Ticker. But this link is useful too.

 

http://economiccrisiswatch.blogspot.com/20...-on-august.html

 

This must be the one (?)

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/artic...,-Prechter-Says

[warpig]

Nicely made presentation boxes, they're not for me though. If you could come up with some webbing so I could smuggle 50 * 1KG gold bars over the boarder and my jacket won't look too bulky then I'm all ears.

 

I am currently developing a box to hold bullion coins. Please see attachments. These will hopefully be on sale in the winter. Each coin will have their own capsule. There will be 20 capsules to a tray and 5 trays in the box, so each box can hold 100 coins. I may develop these boxes further for larger investors, perhaps to hold tubes.

 

I am also considering marketing the investment boxes already containing silver coins from around the world. I am hoping to sell these through mass market retail chains.

 

Any feedback would be very welcome.

 

Thanks.

[enrieb]

I am currently developing a box to hold bullion coins. Please see attachments. These will hopefully be on sale in the winter. Each coin will have their own capsule. There will be 20 capsules to a tray and 5 trays in the box, so each box can hold 100 coins. I may develop these boxes further for larger investors, perhaps to hold tubes.

 

I am also considering marketing the investment boxes already containing silver coins from around the world. I am hoping to sell these through mass market retail chains.

 

Any feedback would be very welcome.

 

Thanks.

 

They look good, but ultimately for most of us on here we can only judge from an investment point of view, and with that in mind, the deciding factor is going to be the price. Most investors tend to get the best prices deals on large silver bars, but large silver bars are not divisible in a practical way. I suppose once an individual has purchased a full box then it would not be practical to sell, say 5 coins from of the box, because then you would be left with an uncompleted box.

 

There are two basic types of PM buyers, one is the investor and the other is the collector(numismatician), I sort of consider myself a hybrid of the two. When I first became interested in buying bullion as an investor I was slightly paranoid about being ripped off, because I had no idea how to tell a real coin/bar from a fake one. From an investors point of view, the most important issue was not what the cheapest price I could get a coin for, it was the cheapest price that I could get a 'real coin' for, and I was willing to pay a higher premium for the genuine article. My own strategy was to buy at least one of each major gold/silver bullion coin, then I would have an original coin that I could compare other coins purchased cheaply from less trustworthy sources, like Ebay.

 

I think that unless you have the right market contacts to be able to ensure a competitive price, big investors may choose to go for large bars or companies like Gold Money. If you cannot compete on price, you could target new investors who would like to have at least 1-10 of each of the major coins. A wealthy investor could easily afford a full box of 100, though perhaps you could also target less wealthy investors by selling a box with just one of the main bullion coins in each of the ten compartments, giving them more of an incentive to build up the box, coin by coin, until it is a complete box of 100 containing 10 of each bullion coin. You could also have a two way trade where you could buy back your own complete boxes and pass them onto a new customer for a small commission.

 

From the perceptive of a coin collector, there are also other non bullion (exonumia) coin that can be collected, better known as silver rounds. There are collections of commemorative coins for Olympics, Royals, WWF etc... Completing a collection would be a good hobby for a numismatician, and a complete box could potentially be worth a premium price. It could become a bit like trying to complete those Panini football sticker albums in school (got, got, got, got, got.. not got! , I'll trade you five Phill Nevill's for a John Terry!)

 

http://www.24carat.co.uk/coinsbytheme.html

 

 

I own silver and gold bullion coins mostly for investment purposes, as I believe that my wealth is more secure in the metals at this moment in time. At some-point I will see a new investment opportunity and I will sell the majority of my bullion, but I will always keep a small percentage of my wealth in the metals as a hedge. It would be good to have a box to keep at least one of each main gold/silver coin, or if wealthy enough, ten of each.

[Jake]

This must be the one (?)

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/artic...,-Prechter-Says

 

 

Thanks Stobar! That's the one. I think THIS TIME Prechter might be right regarding gold. Mind you I am not brave enough to sell like in the hope of buying it back again.

Good luck to everyone in what they decide!

[DoctorSolar]

Thanks Stobar! That's the one. I think THIS TIME Prechter might be right regarding gold. Mind you I am not brave enough to sell like in the hope of buying it back again.

Good luck to everyone in what they decide!

I think you are right to keep a core gold holding that you do not trade.

 

For the average joe such as myself it seems far too dangerous to try and finesse the purchase of a core holding by waiting off for a low that may never come. Most ordinary folks simply don't have the time to constantly monitor for the optimal buying opportunity. A slow and steady nibbling is what is called for. Set aside a set amount of GBP every month or every week and buy gold till you have enough to make a difference to you. That's what i have been doing and its been working out well.

[drbubb]

I had also planned to make another move into gold during August and September but the COT data does not convince me.

I'm watching but so far I've stayed on the sidelines.

 

There is one possibility...

I wont bet on this, since it is a very rare occurance:

The Large Specs (Hedge Funds) might BEAT the Commercials.

 

If price rose far enough, and fast enough, the commercial might at some stage be driven to cover.

I think this is unlikely, because on the other side of at least SOME of those big shorts, are mining companies

that own the Gold in the ground, and they can simply deliver gold production into their shorts.

 

Normally the Commercials win. The price drops, and they can cover their "excess shorts" at a lower price.

 

Within this year (since January), we have seen, Commercial Shorts vary from

 

==== : CmlShts: =Pct= ( GLD at / Day ) L.Spec.Longs

High . : -385,177: 70.0% (90.95- 24.Mar) 185,442

Low .. : -299,023: 63.8% (86.89- 21.Apr) 166,953

Latest : -370,114: 71.3% (94.68- 04.Aug) 223,607 -2nd highest of year!

 

The way I think of it:

The rise in Commercial shorts, is as if they are trying to "slap down" the price.

 

There is probably, a limit on the extent to which Large Specs (Hedgies) are willing to go Long gold, and so

I have added the Net Long positions to the right of the date, above.

 

The highest (Large Specs Long) was 226,535 on 02.Jun.2009 when Gold/GLD hit $96.36

[drbubb]

I am currently developing a box to hold bullion coins. Please see attachments. These will hopefully be on sale in the winter. Each coin will have their own capsule. There will be 20 capsules to a tray and 5 trays in the box, so each box can hold 100 coins. I may develop these boxes further for larger investors, perhaps to hold tubes.

 

I am also considering marketing the investment boxes already containing silver coins from around the world. I am hoping to sell these through mass market retail chains.

 

I like the look - are they expensive?

Do you think there's enough to demand to sell through chains?

 

I'm not sure that "showing off" one's Gold holdings in presentation boxes is a wise thing to do.

I used to keep some precious metals coins in the fridge, looking like packaged food.

But now I use a bank vault

[Jake]

Thanks Stobar! That's the one. I think THIS TIME Prechter might be right regarding gold. Mind you I am not brave enough to sell like in the hope of buying it back again.

Good luck to everyone in what they decide!

 

 

This has just come in my in box, too. Well woth another read.

 

http://www.elliottwave.com/press_room/seen...rd/default.aspx

 

 

 

 

DrSolar, I think you have the right strategy for the 'average joe'...well not quite average joe who has no gold whatsoever. Your strategy has been mine since 2004 and it hasnt done any harm. I've slowed off for the time being and switched to silver as it seems so cheap for ounces of Brittanias or whatever you fancy. If it falls to 4 quid/coin I'm really not bothered because 1. I'll have it and 2.I won't have the worry of my sterling cash.

 

I dont know whether I am right or wrong any more. But I would rather have 'real money' than fiat cash and be able to get it while it is available. Thus keep chipping away and buy on the dips.

 

I think after a few years of reading around the problems we are having I know who I believe and I know who I trust. I know who to take with a pinch of salt and I know who to dump in the garbage. Just wish I had bags more useless cash to exchange for the 'real thing'. As it is I just keep working and hoping I make my targets before they move away from me.

 

At the mo I will heed RP as it seems like good advice. Patience is like the devil, though I am learning and keeping an open mind.

[romans holiday]

This must be the one (?)

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/artic...,-Prechter-Says

Cheers for posting that vid. Always good to hear what Prechter has to say. Though I agree with his larger view of deflationary decline in commodities and stocks, I differ on him on some points...... fwiw.

 

1] I think we could see stocks and commodities go a bit higher yet before they roll over after the summer.

 

2] Prechter, though he has started to look at gold as a currency in other articles, still views it here as primarily a commodity. I think this is a mistake and gold in particular, as opposed to silver, is increasingly being "monetized" in the minds of investors. This monetization reflects in reduced volatility in gold which has been the case since the advent of QE. Also, keep in mind that some currencies, such as the Aussie, Kiwi and I would suggest Sterling. move up and down on the risk trade. With a renewed safety trade, those waiting in pounds for a dip in gold might be disappointed. Maybe the dip will come with dollars and Yen, but then again it might be a very small dip given the "monetization" of gold.

 

3] A distinction has to be drawn between gold and silver. Where gold is starting to achieve a higher status as a currency, silver for now has a foot firmly in the commodity world. It will soar on the inflation trade and dive on the deflation trade. Silver surfing anyone? [i am thinking of starting to move out of silver, which I am heavily in, into dollars, Yen and gold when/if it gets above $16].

 

4] Though I agree with Prechter that the dollar is not toast anytime soon, I am not as bullish as I imagine Prechter is on the long term future of the dollar. Listening the the video, it seems Prechter has firmly in mind a dollar/gold inverse relationship carrying on into the future. I think this could slowly break down as gold comes to be increasingly seen as an alternative currency given the increasing burden of debt on conventional currencies. The deflation dynamic will see the dollar rise short term, yet the fundamentals of the dollar will see it decline in the long term. The dollar's loss here will be gold's gain as investors become less certain about the dollar. Though they will both benefit as safe havens in deflation, this would reduce the volatility between them and also the chance of a massive dip in gold.

 

So in sum, in the short term, I remain bullish on gold, but am turning bearish on silver.

In the long term, I remain bullish on both.

[TrueNorth]

So in sum, in the short term, I remain bullish on gold, but am turning bearish on silver.

In the long term, I remain bullish on both.

 

I would agree with you on these points. I just traded some silver for gold, as evidence of my short-term bearishness. Naturally, the silver price increased promptly thereafter.

[Pixel8r]

So in sum, in the short term, I remain bullish on gold, but am turning bearish on silver.

In the long term, I remain bullish on both.

I think silver will out perform gold this year, as it has been doing already. I wouldn't base any of your thinking on anything Prechter has to say about gold. Just have a check of this google news archive list;

 

Google news results for "prechter gold" - from 2002-2006

 

He has been bearish about gold before every spike in the price and really has missed all of gold's movement since 2003. Why do people still bother listening to him, when he is just plain wrong lots of the time?

 

 

[romans holiday]

I think silver will out perform gold this year, as it has been doing already. I wouldn't base any of your thinking on anything Prechter has to say about gold. Just have a check of this google news archive list;

 

Google news results for "prechter gold" - from 2002-2006

 

He has been bearish about gold before every spike in the price and really has missed all of gold's movement since 2003. Why do people still bother listening to him, when he is just plain wrong lots of the time?

Did you even read my post?

 

It is hardly based on Prechter.

[Pixel8r]

My very simple outlook for gold and silver.

 

We are just about to move into the final quarter of the year, which historically has seen the largest movements in the gold price.

 

 

When gold goes up in price, silver the leveraged version usually goes up at twice the rate, as it has been this year.

 

QE is in full effect, fiat currencies are being created at full speed. The chinese are backing away from buying US treasuries and are continuing to buy commodities, primarily gold & oil.

 

Why try to trade your insurance? Keep it simple and just keep accumulating.

 

 

[romans holiday]

Why try to trade your insurance? Keep it simple and just keep accumulating.

If you considered it "insurance", you wouldn't own much of it.

 

If you thought it was a 100% certainty, you wouldn't own anything else.

 

Best to hedge and own quite a bit, and other stuff besides.... and accumulate by trading these on the swings if you so wish.

[Pixel8r]

If you considered it "insurance", you wouldn't own much of it.

 

If you thought it was a 100% certainty, you wouldn't own anything else.

 

Best to hedge and own quite a bit, but other stuff besides.... and accumulate by trading these on the swings if you so wish.

And the rest of my message, do you have any comment on that?

 

The amount of "insurance" you hold depends on how large the problem you see coming is and how it effects your other activities. Bit like when the owner of the trade towers insured them for $7.2 billion

 

On the 23rd July, 2001, just seven weeks previous to the World Trade Center demolitions, the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey signed a deal with a consortium (Larry Silverstein, Westfield America Inc and Lloyd Goldman) led by Larry Silverstein for a 99 year lease of the World Trade Center complex. The leased buildings included WTCs One, Two, Four, Five and 400,000 square feet of retail space. The Marriott Hotel (WTC 3), U.S. Customs building (WTC 6) and Silverstein's own 47-story office building (WTC 7) were already under lease. Silverstein is seeking $7.2 billion from insurers for the destruction of the center.

[wren]

Rather than buying a presentation box I would be more interested in a leather belt for secreting sovs or half sovs or other ways of hiding coins either on one's person or at home.

 

The presentation boxes posted certainly look good if you want show off your stash.

[aardvark]

Rather than buying a presentation box I would be more interested in a leather belt for secreting sovs or half sovs or other ways of hiding coins either on one's person or at home.

 

good idea.

 

i do like the boxes though.

[TrueNorth]

Rather than buying a presentation box I would be more interested in a leather belt for secreting sovs or half sovs or other ways of hiding coins either on one's person or at home.

 

The presentation boxes posted certainly look good if you want show off your stash.

 

wren, speaking of belts, I am thinking this may be the way to go:

 

 

purty, innit?

 

More demure options available here

[G0ldfinger]

If you considered it "insurance", you wouldn't own much of it. ...

Depends on your future lifetime income, if you have a house, the size and composition of your pension fund.

 

My rough guess is, that 95% of the population should be 100% in gold and silver with whatever spare investments they have besides the above mentioned ones. See also my diversification thread.

[romans holiday]

Depends on your future lifetime income, if you have a house, the size and composition of your pension fund.

 

My rough guess is, that 95% of the population should be 100% in gold and silver with whatever spare investments they have besides the above mentioned ones. See also my diversification thread.

Yes, when people buy insurance, it involves a small fraction of their worth/income. That is why I think the term "insurance" is a misnomer.

 

I agree with you that people would be doing well to buy gold and silver with more than a fraction of their worth... but then they would be thinking of gold and silver as sound currencies.

 

It is hardly "insurance" when you have something like 50% or more of your worth in monetary metals [personally, I think 50% is better than 100% so as to be hedged in other currencies, but I take your point that 100% in gold and silver with your liquid worth would be a lesser percentage considering wider assets you may have].

[routemaster]

Rather than buying a presentation box I would be more interested in a leather belt for secreting sovs or half sovs or other ways of hiding coins either on one's person or at home.

 

This might fit the bill.

 

 

The James Bond attaché case, with 50 sovereigns tucked away in the base, as above. Plus the usual handy special extras of a concealed throwing knife, folding snipers rifle and silencer, ammo and tear gas canister.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[bitbigt]

If you get it wrong with your calculated gamble you will not lose any money, barring banking default, but your money will be worth less.

No - because I have a cunning plan...

We've also still got outstanding mortgages (locked in for 5 years at 2.5%) on rental properties abroad for the same amount of money as we're considerring putting back into gold. So if we miss the boat with gold, we'll just use the money to pay off the mortgage.

 

Having debt is no bad thing in inflationary times.

 

So we can't really loose, other than not making a fortune on golds rising price (but as everyone here keeps insisting, they hold gold to break even in real terms, not to get wealthy)

 

But anyhow...: I still believe I will end up buying gold, and at a very good price.

[bitbigt]

Alternatively it could just go up from here, talk of £450 gold seems wishful thinking to me. We have been in a year and half long battle to get through $1000, what makes you think that it will be still going down?

 

None of the problems seem to be getting sorted, they actually just seem to be getting worse. Towards the end of the year inflation will get a boost as the old 17.5% VAT rate kicks back in. All the additional liquidity which is being created by QE has got to have an effect at some point, they won't be able to remove it as quick as they made it.

Well in my prediction of a drop below GBP 500, I'm in good company... Frizzers also sees a possible/probably drop of USD 100

 

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/preci...gold-93306.aspx

 

"The dollar gold price could easily be taken down $100 from here, so be careful."

[romans holiday]

Well in my prediction of a drop below GBP 500, I'm in good company... Frizzers also sees a possible/probably drop of USD 100

 

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/preci...gold-93306.aspx

 

"The dollar gold price could easily be taken down $100 from here, so be careful."

Surely you would have to be in US dollars to take advantage of this. If gold went down that much, could be a lot of markets and currencies also go down in sympathy.

[bitbigt]

I was curious if your opinion had changed. The fundamental difference between our strategies is still there by the sounds of it. You seem to be describing more of a linear event and I feel certain it will be exponential when it comes. We'll see how it goes, but I feel the more intervention and the longer the system is prevented from returning to equilibrium, the more violent the correction will be when it happens. I certainly subscribe to the theory of unintended consequences.

Yes - I don't think the earthquake will be as soon or as sudden ('exponential') as you and many others here think.

Even back in the 70's where the intervention was less well orchestrated or devious, and where inflation was at 20%, it took 10 years for gold to peak.