GOLD

[bitbigt]

Thanks for taking the time to reply. No stick from me just curious to hear how others are thinking.

When you say gold will be the place to be in 12 months time do you think it will get back above these current levels then? If so a buy and hold type investor would come out ok in the end?

I think that's a very reasonable point of view.

However, I must ask what you think the eventual price of gold is likely to be. IMO it's simply not worth the risk to get what IMO is only going to be a minuscule improvement.

I'll preface my response by pointing out that I believe economists were invented to make weather forecasters look good!

So on that basis, my own predictions are probably worth nothing!!!!

 

I'd currently guess that if gold falls...

- it'll start and complete somewhere between 1 month and 6 months from now. GBP 500 is my best guess of the bottom, but lower is not impossible.

- turn up will come 6 months - 2 years from now.

- peak will come 3 years - 8 years from now, at anywhere between GBP 900 - GBP 1500 (should be higher, but the manipulators will not let it reach a 'fair' value of GBP 2500)

 

Of course, in the fullness of time (years, decades, centuries), gold will pass any level one might set in any currency. So yes - the "buy and hold type investor would come out ok in the end". But I don't want to lock up all my wealth in scenarios that take decades to pay me back, or even longer than my lifetime - and never enjoy my wealth. Compared to that option, I'd rather spend it on having a fullfilling life (e.g., home, holidays, families...) or put it into other safe assets (e.g., rental properties) that also ultimately hold their value (if bought when not overpriced) whilst also yielding a monthly income that tracks inflation.

 

Its about balancing options and risk in the bigger picture, not just through the golden lens.

[bitbigt]

My "Swing Indicator" suggests that Gold (GLD) is a dangerous buy now

 

/see:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=7266

 

The price action gets exaggerated if Commercials shorts vary from 68%.

They were last week at 71.1% which is definitely on the high end, indicating that

Commercials are more happy than usual to be short gold. They usually get it right

at extremes.

 

I am looking for reasons to buy Gold now, since the seasonal window has a limited number

of days left, but I find this to be off-putting.

Very interesting and useful.

Thanks!

[bitbigt]

Alternatively it could just go up from here, talk of £450 gold seems wishful thinking to me. We have been in a year and half long battle to get through $1000, what makes you think that it will be still going down?[\b]

Hi Pixel8r: Please see previous post:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....mp;#entry121707

[id5]

...

The James Bond attaché case, with 50 sovereigns tucked away in the base, as above. Plus the usual handy special extras of a concealed throwing knife, folding snipers rifle and silencer, ammo and tear gas canister.

...

You just don't want to leave that on the 7:45 to Paddington

[warpig]

Now that I like.

 

This might fit the bill.

 

 

The James Bond attaché case, with 50 sovereigns tucked away in the base, as above. Plus the usual handy special extras of a concealed throwing knife, folding snipers rifle and silencer, ammo and tear gas canister.

 

 

[warpig]

I wondered if you might have changed your mind. Interesting you reference the 70's and not the 30's. I hope it works for you.

 

Yes - I don't think the earthquake will be as soon or as sudden ('exponential') as you and many others here think.

Even back in the 70's where the intervention was less well orchestrated or devious, and where inflation was at 20%, it took 10 years for gold to peak.

[TrueNorth]

Did gold just get nailed for ten bucks?!

[bitbigt]

Did gold just get nailed for ten bucks?!

yep - 1% of the 10% drop I anticipate

[Pixel8r]

Hi Pixel8r: Please see previous post:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....mp;#entry121707

Thanks for pointing me to that, I know understand where you are coming from better. I think we will be taking your red path, in reality people are far from delusionaly happy with what is happening currently and most are scared for their jobs and are wondering what is going to happen next. I guess the we will know how is right over the next few months.

[dietcolaaddict]

Did gold just get nailed for ten bucks?!

A textbook friday afternoon smackdown.

But September is fast approaching and gold looking well placed to break four figures in the near future

[routemaster]

You just don't want to leave that on the 7:45 to Paddington

 

The picture illustrates the tear gas feature if an "unautherised" person opened it.

 

 

 

Taking the next Heathrow Airport Express train from Paddington would be highly recommended.

[FWIW]

These $10 off 'sale' prices are so very nice! Like the good doctor has been saying, buy it regularly and relax.

 

BTW - while watching the England game the other night, I saw an advert from this co: http://www.gotgoldgetcash.co.uk/index.html

 

Also, the FT has had on the bottom right corner front page an advert from a company trying to get the message across that Sterling is being debased!

 

advert

http://specials.ft.com/vtf_pdf/130809_FRONT1_LON.pdf

 

company

http://www.sterligoff.com/

 

and a post worth reading: http://www.sterligoff.com/blog-post-12-08-09

[bazmercer]

Average in over the next few weeks to reduce your risk rather than buying all in a single purchase. If the price falls you can take advantage of the lower price, if the price rises then the earlier purchases will have been bargins.

 

Yup, I'm not going to time the market. I have neither the time nor the inclination. I've got cash in GM, I'll just slowly drip feed it in...

[routemaster]

Well in my prediction of a drop below GBP 500, I'm in good company... Frizzers also sees a possible/probably drop of USD 100

 

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/preci...gold-93306.aspx

 

"The dollar gold price could easily be taken down $100 from here, so be careful."

 

 

Fizzers did predict very well in early June that gold would drop from $1000 and hold above $900. Dr Bubb mentioned gold could drop to $860-850 and maybe to $800.

 

As you qouted above, Fizzers is saying it could drop $100, however he does warn:

 

"If this pattern continues it means a major, multi-month move - which will propel the price beyond $1,000 - is coming. You want to make sure you've booked your seat on the rocket, either though gold or an associated share. Yes, somebody might get a seat a little bit cheaper, but better this than not having a seat at all."

[drbubb]

I think your comments about the fact that miners themselves are are on the short side is spot on. Due to the large volatility that has been going on over the last year a fair few of the larger miners had chosen to hedge, to guarantee a level of income. So the short position may not be so made up of the bullion banks as usual and the hedge funds could be the winners this time.

 

The Bullion banks sit between the Short futures and the hedging Gold producers.

I believe that the lion's share of the Gold Futures shorts consist of banks that have a short in the Futures

to cover the long position they have from buying gold forward from mining companies.

They have to hedge those gold loans someplace!

 

Of course, at times the Bullion banks see opportunities to INCREASE their shorts in order to make some

trading profits. So when the Hedgies come in and Bid the market high, some of the selling may come

from position-taking by the banks. And some may come from gold miners topping up their bullion loans

at higher gold prices. The banks know what levels the miners are looking to sell, so they have a big

advantage over all the other traders.

 

I used to report to the same guy, who was the boss of the biggest bullion bank in the world, and I would

sometimes talk to the bullion traders there. They would just laugh at the Gold conspiracy theories, saying that

"those guys just don't understand how the gold business works."

[drbubb]

Gold Watch - Commitment of Traders (COT) Report

Anticipating Gold's next move, using sentiment swings

 

/see: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=7266

 

Comments please, on how clear the descriptions there are.

 

(I think the the Swing and Choke indicators could prove very useful to all Gold traders)

 

The latest Swing of $96.97 is not cheap, and the Choke of 430.0 is near a Bearish extreme

[drbubb]

Very interesting and useful. Thanks!

 

I'm going to redo this chart

 

The 68% level, which I used as the mid-point of adjustments may be too high.

It could be better to use 64%

 

Current levels will look like they have even more "fat"

[bitbigt]

Gold Watch - Commitment of Traders (COT) Report

Anticipating Gold's next move, using sentiment swings

 

/see: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=7266

 

Comments please, on how clear the descriptions there are.

 

(I think the the Swing and Choke indicators could prove very useful to all Gold traders)

 

The latest Swing of $96.97 is not cheap, and the Choke of 430.0 is near a Bearish extreme

Great work, and very well explained.

Thanks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Pixel8r]

I used to report to the same guy, who was the boss of the biggest bullion bank in the world, and I would

sometimes talk to the bullion traders there. They would just laugh at the Gold conspiracy theories, saying that

"those guys just don't understand how the gold business works."

So when James Turk talks about the gold cartel, as on this weeks FSN, it would be that he doesn't understand how the gold business works. I find that hard to believe, is it not the case that certain bullion traders don't really understand how the market is being played.

 

[drbubb]

So when James Turk talks about the gold cartel, as on this weeks FSN, it would be that he doesn't understand how the gold business works. I find that hard to believe, is it not the case that certain bullion traders don't really understand how the market is being played.

 

Jim has been far too bullish on gold for a long time. If he had been right, it would be well above $1,000 now,

not under pressure and on its way (maybe) back to $900 or lower.

 

Jim used to work at Chase too, but left many years before I did, and he was in a different part of the bank.

So he did not have the same access to the gold traders as recently as I did. (And my access was several years

ago too, by now.)

 

I am not saying that Jim doesnt know how the gold markets work, but I do think that he and Gata make too much of the idea of gold manipulation. There is LESS of that going on than Gata would have you believe.

 

And let me ask you this, if the governments keep selling gold to depress the price, then surely at some point they would run out of gold to sell. If not, then they must be buying back the gold they sell short to manipulate the price. So when does that happen, and why do we not hear Gata talking about government manipulators buying gold?

 

 

[drbubb]

Marc Faber is Bullish on the Dollar Now - here's why...

 

When the S&P bottomed in March, the dollar was weak, notes Faber, who expects the next few months will be a period of dollar recovery and “a correction time in asset markets” as the dollar strengthens.

 

“The strong dollar means global liquidity tightening,” Faber told CNBC.

 

“In a scenario where growth will be disappointing, I think emerging markets will be kind of vulnerable.”

 

. . .

 

Sentiment in currency markets seems to be lining up behind the dollar, but if the Fed provides some indication that its quantitative easing and stimulus program will end, the pace of the dollar's acceleration will slow, says Greg Salvaggio, vice president at Tempus Consulting.

 

"Should that wording emerge, I think you're going to see people quickly run for the exits on short dollar positions," Salvaggio told The Wall Street Journal.

 

The Fed on Wednesday extended its extraordinary efforts to support the economy through October. It had planned to end them in September. It left the benchmark rate near zero, as expected.

 

/more: http://moneynews.newsmax.com/streettalk/fa.../13/247459.html

[drbubb]

I'm going to redo this chart

 

The 68% level, which I used as the mid-point of adjustments may be too high.

It could be better to use 64%

 

Current levels will look like they have even more "fat"

 

Using more data now, and revised to a 64% neutral swing point

 

 

From the Gold Watch section of GEI-N.com:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=7266

 

Now I would say:

"The latest Swing of $103.xx is not cheap,

and the Choke of 430.0 is still near a Bearish extreme."

[shawth]

I like the look - are they expensive?

Do you think there's enough to demand to sell through chains?

 

I'm not sure that "showing off" one's Gold holdings in presentation boxes is a wise thing to do.

I used to keep some precious metals coins in the fridge, looking like packaged food.

But now I use a bank vault

 

The large 100 coin box will retail for about $40. The idea behind it wasn't to show the coins off but as a storage container. I figured if I am going to design a storage box I may as well design it so it looks good at the same time. At the moment my coins are in plastic capsules in a plastic bag in my atic (burglers don't normally go in to the atic) which is an untidy storage solution.

 

i agree that a large investor for silver would more likely want bars, these boxes are geared more to the small investor who wants a holding and will want to keep thecoins in a safe place in the home.

 

I think the small investor demand will grow as we see inflation rising. I think the big obstacle at the moment for a small investor is awareness and where to buy at a low premium.

[Pixel8r]

Jim has been far too bullish on gold for a long time. If he had been right, it would be well above $1,000 now,

not under pressure and on its way (maybe) back to $900 or lower.

 

Jim used to work at Chase too, but left many years before I did, and he was in a different part of the bank.

So he did not have the same access to the gold traders as recently as I did. (And my access was several years

ago too, by now.)

 

I am not saying that Jim doesnt know how the gold markets work, but I do think that he and Gata make too much of the idea of gold manipulation. There is LESS of that going on than Gata would have you believe.

 

And let me ask you this, if the governments keep selling gold to depress the price, then surely at some point they would run out of gold to sell. If not, then they must be buying back the gold they sell short to manipulate the price. So when does that happen, and why do we not hear Gata talking about government manipulators buying gold?

Fort Knox has not been audited recently, maybe there isn't as much gold there as there should actually be. I know that Ron Paul has been calling for it to be audited, but it hasn't happened. Also the US store central bank gold for many other countries, such as Germany, which could be used in the cartels actions to control price.

 

I believe that actually what they do is lease the gold rather than sell it, that way they don't need to replace it as they still own it in their accounts, just not actually have it anymore. Leasing gold to companies which they then sell and are short physical, is a great way for the CB's to control price as they also so make money off the gold which was in their vaults. Trouble is the companies which are leasing it from the CB's have built up massive short positions, so when it comes to the crunch the gold is no longer available. That is the thing with owning gold, it should be no one else's liability as when TSHTF you actually don't own any gold, just a paper promise to it. When TSHTF we all know what paper can end up being worth.

 

James does talk about the fact that gold should have been a lot higher than it is currently in this weeks FSN, partly the reason it isn't has been the actions of the cartel and also the many gold ETFs. As people start to not trust the ETFs and want physical, the price will rise. This has recently started to happen in a big way with the Greenlight Hedge fund pulling their holding from GLD and moving to physical - http://etfdailynews.com/blog/?p=4592

 

I think your opinion of James Turk is not right, I believe he is very connected in the gold industry, he currently is holding $607 Million physical gold for customers and is connected with the LBMA. Could it actually be that the paper dealers at chase are less connected with the real market than they believe?

 

 

[drbubb]

So when James Turk talks about the gold cartel, as on this weeks FSN, it would be that he doesn't understand how the gold business works. I find that hard to believe, is it not the case that certain bullion traders don't really understand how the market is being played.

 

Jim seems to find ways of making a bullish argument at most times,

as this interview will show:

 

 

Lara Crigger, associate editor, HardAssetsInvestor.com (Crigger): In a recent commentary, you predicted gold will soon climb above $1,000/oz and stay there. Why do you think so?

 

Turk: I expect it to happen fairly soon, maybe September, October. Really, I've been expecting it all this year, and there's finally enough momentum now in the gold market, I think, to take it higher.

 

The reason is really quite simple: When you debase the dollar, you're going to get a higher gold price. And the federal government and Federal Reserve are clearly on a path where the dollar is being debased. The government is spending and borrowing too much, and the Federal Reserve is just churning out currency. In that kind of environment, a higher gold price can be expected.

 

Actually, that's what's happened all decade long. Gold's up eight years in a row, at an average annual return of 16.3%. This is the ninth year gold is up, and it looks like it's going to finish out the year even higher than it is at present.

 

Crigger: Can gold really keep up this pace?

 

Turk: The real question is: Can the Federal Reserve keep destroying the purchasing power of the dollar? The answer is probably yes. So as a consequence, the gold price will continue to go higher.

 

The $1,000 level is very significant, in that it's going to be like an international "buy" signal. As well as gold has done this decade, it's still not being widely followed. It's not really on many people's radar screens. But once it goes over $1,000, that will be a worldwide news event that will attract a lot of attention to the gold market.

 

Crigger: Right; people will see that $1,000 price point and think, "I've got to get my hands on that right now."

 

Turk: Exactly. Certain levels are important psychological points. For example, look at the Dow Jones Industrial and how long it took to get above 1,000. Then, when it finally did break above 1,000 in 1983, it just kept going. Obviously there was some backing and filling along the way, but that major uptrend lasted for 17 years.

 

So when gold goes through $1,000, I expect it will just keep going as well. There's already been a decade-long bull market, and I think we've got many, many years left before this bull market breathes its last.

 

Crigger: Why do you think gold will breach $1,000 in September or October, specifically, versus any other time?

 

Turk: Normally, autumn is gold's seasonal strong point. There's a lot of buying because of various holidays in different parts of the world. Plus, people are coming back from the summer holidays, and they're looking at what's happened while they were gone. They'll see that the dollar's been debased, so they'll go and buy the metals.

 

Also, my reading of the charts for gold (and silver, for that matter) is suggesting that the sideways action we've been seeing, the backing and selling and the base building, is coming to a conclusion. It looks to me like September or October is really the ideal time frame to see gold break above $1,000.

 

/more: http://seekingalpha.com/article/156138-wil...ticle_lb_author

== == ==

 

Actually, the state of the COT figures and the probability of another deflationary downswing this autumn

is making me LESS BULLISH on Gold than I expected to be at this stage