G0ldfinger Posted August 20, 2009 Author Report Share Posted August 20, 2009 ... Otherwise charts showing Dow/Gold ratio should not be logarithmic as they are both based on the same currency and fluctuate within a certain range over time. ... I have to differ here, too. A logarithmic Dow:Gold ratio makes sense because changes in the lower ranges otherwise get overlooked too easily. A change in the ratio from 40:1 to 10:1 is as important (for an investor) as a change from 10:1 to 2.5:1. Hence logarithmic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dietcolaaddict Posted August 20, 2009 Report Share Posted August 20, 2009 OK, I have a dilemma here - any advice appreciated. I'm heavily invested in gold and silver + a little 'flirtation' position in platinum (total 85% of savings). Things look bullish for the months ahead in PMs and August is not the time to sell. However, I have a lot of life changes in the months ahead and need to liquidate some cash to pay for them all. Am I best to use my remaining cash (£) savings (15%) to do this, or to sell off some PMs and keep my cash emergency fund? I feel a little uncomfortable having all my eggs in one basket and being 100% PMs, even if only for a few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted August 20, 2009 Report Share Posted August 20, 2009 I have to differ here, too. A logarithmic Dow:Gold ratio makes sense because changes in the lower ranges otherwise get overlooked too easily. A change in the ratio from 40:1 to 10:1 is as important (for an investor) as a change from 10:1 to 2.5:1. Hence logarithmic. I don't care what type of chart one uses - as long as its clear what type it is, and its chosen to suit the data rather than to suit the argument. My initial question instead related to whether we should draw some rather compelling interpretations (that DrB was helpfully flagging up) by using a straight line on a non-log graph. Clearly, there is no absolute answer to this - its just a thought to be pondered. Anyhow: - a quick rant: ...I hate the way the Americans tried to arrogantly interfere with the Scottish judicial system - a quick rant: ...Oil s about to burst up to USD 80, and then I don't what to expect of gold and stocks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted August 20, 2009 Report Share Posted August 20, 2009 OK, I have a dilemma here - any advice appreciated. I'm heavily invested in gold and silver + a little 'flirtation' position in platinum (total 85% of savings). Things look bullish for the months ahead in PMs and August is not the time to sell. However, I have a lot of life changes in the months ahead and need to liquidate some cash to pay for them all. Am I best to use my remaining cash (£) savings (15%) to do this, or to sell off some PMs and keep my cash emergency fund? I feel a little uncomfortable having all my eggs in one basket and being 100% PMs, even if only for a few months. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. 10-20% if PM is healthy given the crazy world we no live in, 50% if you really expect armageddon soon, but 85%?????!!! EDIT: my comments are referring to fractions of a persons total wealth, but if its your savings you're talking about and you have lots of other assets then just ignore me completely (...which is probably a good idea anyway!!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marmite Posted August 20, 2009 Report Share Posted August 20, 2009 OK, I have a dilemma here - any advice appreciated. I'm heavily invested in gold and silver + a little 'flirtation' position in platinum (total 85% of savings). Things look bullish for the months ahead in PMs and August is not the time to sell. However, I have a lot of life changes in the months ahead and need to liquidate some cash to pay for them all. Am I best to use my remaining cash (£) savings (15%) to do this, or to sell off some PMs and keep my cash emergency fund? I feel a little uncomfortable having all my eggs in one basket and being 100% PMs, even if only for a few months. Sell some PMs. You can always buy back later. Maybe sell nearer the time when you need the money. Good chance we will get a pop up in price as the autumn / winter months draw in. Keep your core and rebuild when you can. The reason you bought it was as a store of value, so its done its job. You never know when you might need emergency Fiat money (thats why its there). If its paper gold, sell some now, sell some later, cost average the same as when you buy. If you have any intertesting bullion, why not ask forum members if they want it ??? ( may help you on your margins, rather than having to take a dealer hit ) or you could tread into the murky waters of ebay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marmite Posted August 20, 2009 Report Share Posted August 20, 2009 10-20% if PM is healthy given the crazy world we no live in, 50% if you really expect armageddon soon, but 85%?????!!! +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted August 20, 2009 Author Report Share Posted August 20, 2009 Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. Balance and Diversitifaction. ... Have you had too much beer again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted August 20, 2009 Author Report Share Posted August 20, 2009 ... My initial question instead related to whether we should draw some rather compelling interpretations (that DrB was helpfully flagging up) by using a straight line on a non-log graph. Clearly, there is no absolute answer to this - its just a thought to be pondered. ... Why shouldn't one use straight lines in a normal chart or a log-chart? It always depends on context and argument that is made. E.g. if you want to make the point that something is exponential, heck, yes, a straight line would be not appropriate in a normal chart, but very appropriate in a log-chart. If, however, you wanted to show a linear dependency of two data series, then a straight line in a log-chart would be inappropriate, and it should instead be a straight line in the normal chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted August 20, 2009 Report Share Posted August 20, 2009 OK, I have a dilemma here - any advice appreciated. I'm heavily invested in gold and silver + a little 'flirtation' position in platinum (total 85% of savings). Things look bullish for the months ahead in PMs and August is not the time to sell. However, I have a lot of life changes in the months ahead and need to liquidate some cash to pay for them all. Am I best to use my remaining cash (£) savings (15%) to do this, or to sell off some PMs and keep my cash emergency fund? I feel a little uncomfortable having all my eggs in one basket and being 100% PMs, even if only for a few months. I would keep a fair bit of the cash (for emergencies) and sell some PMs. As said above Sept onwards could be good for gold so I would hang on as long as possible before selling assuming you don't need the cash in the next 3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted August 20, 2009 Report Share Posted August 20, 2009 Have you had too much beer again? Yes - it makes me stutter, stutter, stutter, stutter, stutter, stutter, stutter, stutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted August 20, 2009 Report Share Posted August 20, 2009 For what it's worth, I think now is a good time to sell silver (next 10 days) and a bad time to sell gold. OK, I have a dilemma here - any advice appreciated. I'm heavily invested in gold and silver + a little 'flirtation' position in platinum (total 85% of savings). Things look bullish for the months ahead in PMs and August is not the time to sell. However, I have a lot of life changes in the months ahead and need to liquidate some cash to pay for them all. Am I best to use my remaining cash (£) savings (15%) to do this, or to sell off some PMs and keep my cash emergency fund? I feel a little uncomfortable having all my eggs in one basket and being 100% PMs, even if only for a few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted August 20, 2009 Author Report Share Posted August 20, 2009 For what it's worth, I think now is a good time to sell silver (next 10 days) and a bad time to sell gold. Is it? http://gold.approximity.com/since1968/Gold...-Ratio_LOG.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted August 20, 2009 Report Share Posted August 20, 2009 I can imagine the G:S ratio rising from here, as I feel silver has risen on the back of the extended DCB and is likely to decline in the very short term as the next phase of the crisis evolves. What is it in this graph that makes you think differently? Is it? http://gold.approximity.com/since1968/Gold...-Ratio_LOG.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted August 20, 2009 Author Report Share Posted August 20, 2009 I can imagine the G:S ratio rising from here, as I feel silver has risen on the back of the extended DCB and is likely to decline in the very short term as the next phase of the crisis evolves. What is it in this graph that makes you think differently? I just think that the ratio is comparatively high at the moment anyway. I just don't bet against silver. Like Rogers, I am long only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted August 20, 2009 Report Share Posted August 20, 2009 You might be right... I have high expectations as well. I just think that the ratio is comparatively high at the moment anyway. I just don't bet against silver. Like Rogers, I am long only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dietcolaaddict Posted August 21, 2009 Report Share Posted August 21, 2009 OK, I have a dilemma here - any advice appreciated. I'm heavily invested in gold and silver + a little 'flirtation' position in platinum (total 85% of savings). Things look bullish for the months ahead in PMs and August is not the time to sell. However, I have a lot of life changes in the months ahead and need to liquidate some cash to pay for them all. Am I best to use my remaining cash (£) savings (15%) to do this, or to sell off some PMs and keep my cash emergency fund? I feel a little uncomfortable having all my eggs in one basket and being 100% PMs, even if only for a few months. Thanks everyone for your thoughts. I may have to sell some of my Au+Ag here, but will delay as long as possible to catch as much seasonal gain as I can. The reason I am 85% PMs may be a little unusual and worth explaining (although I am bullish long term on PMs, negative on sterling and heavily influenced by the UK houseprice-to-gold ratio work of Goldfinger). I am attracted to a rarely discussed benefit of gold in bullion form - it allows you to avoid government methods of means testing which only seem to disincentivize the act of 'saving for a rainy day'. Any money kept in shares and cash accounts for bad times is simply counted against you in the UK system no matter how much tax and National Insurance you have paid over the years (in the belief this will provide a short-term safety net). Two scenarios I have had to plan for in recent years: Redundancy - I have poor job security - UK government would deny me benefits until I had eaten through all but £6k of savings/assets. Gold is an untraceable asset in this circumstance that will preserve hard earned savings made from putting aside some of my wage and living prudently within my means. Retraining - I have thought a lot about a switch in career - UK government would expect me to fund my own fees from my savings/assets rather than pay any costs themselves, once more removing the incentive to save for this circumstance through cash or shares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted August 21, 2009 Report Share Posted August 21, 2009 OK, I have a dilemma here - any advice appreciated. I'm heavily invested in gold and silver + a little 'flirtation' position in platinum (total 85% of savings). Things look bullish for the months ahead in PMs and August is not the time to sell. However, I have a lot of life changes in the months ahead and need to liquidate some cash to pay for them all. Why not sell your platinum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted August 21, 2009 Report Share Posted August 21, 2009 I would sell some silver and some platinum as these two of the three would suffer most IF we have another bout of deleveraging. But best of luck with what you decide and I hope it all works out for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesspeed Posted August 21, 2009 Report Share Posted August 21, 2009 Gold down , stocks down - Dollar up ? http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/vermeulen082009.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Pipples Posted August 21, 2009 Report Share Posted August 21, 2009 I would sell some silver and some platinum as these two of the three would suffer most IF we have another bout of deleveraging. But best of luck with what you decide and I hope it all works out for you! +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted August 21, 2009 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2009 I'm sure this has been posted?? Did the WGC report on this? http://jsmineset.com/2009/08/20/in-the-news-today-287/ On the 20th of each month, Russia reports its gold holdings for the prior month. As of Aug 20, the Russian gold reserves now stand at 18.3 million ounces for July of 2009. This is an increase of 600,000 ounces of gold during the month of July 2009. Russia is now also showing their gold holdings for June 2009 on the link above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted August 21, 2009 Report Share Posted August 21, 2009 The reason I am 85% PMs may be a little unusual and worth explaining... ... Redundancy - I have poor job security - UK government would deny me benefits until I had eaten through all but £6k of savings/assets. Gold is an untraceable asset in this circumstance that will preserve hard earned savings made from putting aside some of my wage and living prudently within my means. +1, it doesn't seem that unusual to me! watch out for means testing.. I feel exactly the same. You just know that if you have savings by the time you are ready for a state pension you'll be canned for it. Not only that, but the dire state of the UK finances might call for means testing on all JobSeekers Allowances, or even the health service! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted August 21, 2009 Report Share Posted August 21, 2009 - a quick rant: ...Oil s about to burst up to USD 80, and then I don't what to expect of gold and stocks There she blows!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted August 21, 2009 Report Share Posted August 21, 2009 There she blows!!!! Just some dollar weakness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dietcolaaddict Posted August 21, 2009 Report Share Posted August 21, 2009 Why not sell your platinum? I only hold a very small amount of platinum. It's silly, but I loose interest in price movements when I don't hold a position in that marketplace, hence my small holding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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