tinecu Posted June 28, 2008 Report Share Posted June 28, 2008 If you own gold, you'll love this one: Preserve Your Wealth Buy Gold Commodities / Gold & Silver Jun 27, 2008 - 12:54 PM By: Adrian_Ash http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5246.html Just check out the affect of real inflation rates on the YOY change in the gold price :D Great stuff. Thanks. Yep its all about real INTEREST rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted June 28, 2008 Report Share Posted June 28, 2008 Great stuff. Thanks. Yep its all about real INTEREST rates. Interesting point was made on FSN today; the myth that raising interest rates has to be negative for gold. They made the point that throughout the 70's rates went from 3% to 21% while at the same time gold also went up. http://financialsense.com/fsn/main.html The third hour, 42 minutes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgnao Posted June 28, 2008 Report Share Posted June 28, 2008 Cgnao... ... I read most of your posts. You never mention silver? Not true The next parabolic move? Silver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted June 28, 2008 Report Share Posted June 28, 2008 Just wondering what peoples opinions of last weeks rally are. Based upon increasing popularity of gold and improving sentiment, plus the inflation story, plus the long term chart technicals (price got ahead of itself at 1030, needed to ease off, but is now back to its trend line) then I think we're at the start of a big move. However, it won't be a straight line - we'll probably range a bit between 900-950, with the latter taking a few tries to pass. But by late summer we will be past 950 and on the way to 1000, such that the September boost will mark the real take off. I feel that gold is some 6-12 months behind oil, and may line up the charts with a timeshift if I have a chance this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted June 28, 2008 Report Share Posted June 28, 2008 Any news about the supposed IMF gold sales? I haven't heard anything in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted June 28, 2008 Author Report Share Posted June 28, 2008 Any news about the supposed IMF gold sales? I haven't heard anything in a long time. No, but here is an update on official ( :lol: ) gold reserves by the World Gold Council. (oops, sorry can't upload) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted June 28, 2008 Report Share Posted June 28, 2008 Marc Faber yesterday said: "don't listen to Ben Bernanke" "people should buy gold" "real interest rates are negative" "the biggest speculator is the FED, as they they force people to speculate" He reckons commodities during the second half of this year will be bearish, although the commodities bull will continue for many years. He reckons it's better now to buy gold rather than commodities as gold hasn't increased so much and is still quite cheap. In this CNBC video yesterday (13 minutes): http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=779857797&play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dietcolaaddict Posted June 28, 2008 Report Share Posted June 28, 2008 Based upon increasing popularity of gold and improving sentiment, plus the inflation story, plus the long term chart technicals (price got ahead of itself at 1030, needed to ease off, but is now back to its trend line) then I think we're at the start of a big move. However, it won't be a straight line - we'll probably range a bit between 900-950, with the latter taking a few tries to pass. But by late summer we will be past 950 and on the way to 1000, such that the September boost will mark the real take off. I feel that gold is some 6-12 months behind oil, and may line up the charts with a timeshift if I have a chance this weekend. Bigtbigt, I agree with your comments. I still see September as the most likely timing for the next leg up, based on the historical performance of gold over the last eight years (my graph enclosed). I'd be interested in your oil and gold time lag findings, and I'd be keen to do some analysis that expands on the results you post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BelfastBoy Posted June 28, 2008 Report Share Posted June 28, 2008 Not true Ok. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted June 28, 2008 Author Report Share Posted June 28, 2008 If you own gold, you'll love this one: Preserve Your Wealth Buy Gold Commodities / Gold & Silver Jun 27, 2008 - 12:54 PM By: Adrian_Ash http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5246.html Just check out the affect of real inflation rates on the YOY change in the gold price :D Adrian Ash/BV come always dig up good charts. They try to get the message out that negative IRs are pushing gold up. People really are not aware of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgnao Posted June 28, 2008 Report Share Posted June 28, 2008 http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/gold...0629E1A6F5D7%7D Gold revs its engine and squeals down the track Prices were stuck in a $50 trading range until the Fed sent the dollar reeling Last update: 7:30 a.m. EDT June 27, 2008 SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. Federal Reserve gave gold the fuel it needed to restart its engine and the precious metal has already driven through the trading range barrier it's been stuck in for the past month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted June 28, 2008 Report Share Posted June 28, 2008 Marc Faber yesterday said: "don't listen to Ben Bernanke" "people should buy gold" "real interest rates are negative" "the biggest speculator is the FED, as they they force people to speculate" He reckons commodities during the second half of this year will be bearish, although the commodities bull will continue for many years. He reckons it's better now to buy gold rather than commodities as gold hasn't increased so much and is still quite cheap. In this CNBC video yesterday (13 minutes): http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=779857797&play Link was very slow for me but fine on utube. link http://youtube.com/watch?v=3g7Ln2wc4Ww Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LargelyIgnorant Posted June 28, 2008 Report Share Posted June 28, 2008 Just found a good thread on buying silver in the UK on Kitco: https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=17978&page=7 (link is to page 7 of the thread where they are discussing VAT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted June 28, 2008 Report Share Posted June 28, 2008 I'd be interested in your oil and gold time lag findings, and I'd be keen to do some analysis that expands on the results you post. I think there may be something to this... Oil rose steeply from ~30 to get to 70, then plateaued for about 1 year in a range of 60-70. Gold rose steeply from ~300 to get to 700, then plateaued for about 1 year in a range of 600-700. Next, oil started its big run up at the START of 2007, it hesitated at 90-100, but then picked up again in Feb 2008 (speculators) to reach 140 (or more) Whereas, gold started its big run up in the AUGUST 2007, it hesitated at 900-1000, but.... [prediction would be...] then picked up again in SEPT/OCT 2008 to reach 1400 (or more) Most satisfyingly: a big run up from Sept is what I felt would happen anyway, before I discovered this shared pattern with oil. So come on you speculators.... now move on to gold!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted June 28, 2008 Author Report Share Posted June 28, 2008 I think there may be something to this... Oil rose steeply from ~30 to get to 70, then plateaued for about 1 year in a range of 60-70. Gold rose steeply from ~300 to get to 700, then plateaued for about 1 year in a range of 600-700. Next, oil started its big run up at the START of 2007, it hesitated at 90-100, but then picked up again in Feb 2008 (speculators) to reach 140 (or more) Whereas, gold started its big run up in the AUGUST 2007, it hesitated at 900-1000, but.... [prediction would be...] then picked up again in SEPT/OCT 2008 to reach 1400 (or more) Most satisfyingly: a big run up from Sept is what I felt would happen anyway, before I discovered this shared pattern with oil. So come on you speculators.... now move on to gold!!! Interesting observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted June 29, 2008 Report Share Posted June 29, 2008 Marc Faber yesterday said: "don't listen to Ben Bernanke" "people should buy gold" "real interest rates are negative" "the biggest speculator is the FED, as they they force people to speculate" He reckons commodities during the second half of this year will be bearish, although the commodities bull will continue for many years. He reckons it's better now to buy gold rather than commodities as gold hasn't increased so much and is still quite cheap. In this CNBC video yesterday (13 minutes): http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=779857797&play cheers for that link... always good to listen to marc faber... he seems in good spirits these days despite being the author of the doom and gloom report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gatesy Posted June 29, 2008 Report Share Posted June 29, 2008 Tim Wood on FSNH this week again totally clueless. That's what happens when you only look at TA, and not at the fundamentals. Puplava sort of disclassifies him. One of his absolute worst yet ! "Err Jim Ar jurst hayde id, win ar doant havv the datar " Hadn't even heard the oil supply / demand arguments Jim has been spouting for years. "whadt, 84 millyun barrels?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted June 29, 2008 Report Share Posted June 29, 2008 Everyone should be buying silver as well. I believe that in the years to come silver will make astonishing gains. Buy it whenever you get the chance. Obviously, this is the gold thread so that's why silver doesn't get much of a mention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted June 29, 2008 Report Share Posted June 29, 2008 Everyone should be buying silver as well. I believe that in the years to come silver will make astonishing gains. Buy it whenever you get the chance. Obviously, this is the gold thread so that's why silver doesn't get much of a mention. When Gold is discussed often the case for silver is included if not mentioned. Peter Schiff was asked about silver and said gold and silver are the monetary metals and he makes a case for both, even if he only seems to talk about gold. They go hand in hand. The Hunt brothers cornering the silver market is what led to its $50 spike in the 80s. How high would it have gone otherwise? $20? Photographic use has fallen, one of the main industrial uses. On the upside, silver has some unique properties, thermal and electrical conductivity, reflectivity and anti bacterial. Theres potential for silver zinc batteries & rfi tags etc. Silver looks better value than gold as you get much more of it for your money, which seems to be the reason why some people I know have bought some. Although I'm in silver as well as gold I don't see why silver has any greater potential than gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted June 29, 2008 Author Report Share Posted June 29, 2008 One of his absolute worst yet ! "Err Jim Ar jurst hayde id, win ar doant havv the datar " Hadn't even heard the oil supply / demand arguments Jim has been spouting for years. "whadt, 84 millyun barrels?" Oh, yes, I also noted this. I wonder what kind of people read his reports and get confused: "is this 1930, or do we have a bottom and it's going up from here?" Anyway, IMO Puplava is too bullish on stocks/the Dow. The 'creamy filling' also hasn't happened yet. But we will see. Everyone should be buying silver as well. I believe that in the years to come silver will make astonishing gains. Buy it whenever you get the chance. Obviously, this is the gold thread so that's why silver doesn't get much of a mention. We should still talk about silver. My name is GF, but I hold 50% silver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted June 29, 2008 Report Share Posted June 29, 2008 NOT ENOUGH FEAR ... VIX versus SPX SPX ... update VIX ... update It looks like the SPX will fall to fresh LOWS for the year. There isnt enough FEAR in the market to make a bottom yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted June 29, 2008 Report Share Posted June 29, 2008 When Gold is discussed often the case for silver is included if not mentioned. Peter Schiff was asked about silver and said gold and silver are the monetary metals and he makes a case for both, even if he only seems to talk about gold. They go hand in hand. The Hunt brothers cornering the silver market is what led to its $50 spike in the 80s. How high would it have gone otherwise? $20? Photographic use has fallen, one of the main industrial uses. On the upside, silver has some unique properties, thermal and electrical conductivity, reflectivity and anti bacterial. Theres potential for silver zinc batteries & rfi tags etc. Silver looks better value than gold as you get much more of it for your money, which seems to be the reason why some people I know have bought some. Although I'm in silver as well as gold I don't see why silver has any greater potential than gold. Yep, silver looks as good as gold. Some commentators are arguing that the ratio between silver and gold, now at 50-1, may eventually move to 20-1. I am stocking up in August and plan to buy 20 ounces of silver to every ounce of gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted June 29, 2008 Report Share Posted June 29, 2008 I am stocking up in August and plan to buy 20 ounces of silver to every ounce of gold. 20 of silver to 1 of gold is my favoured ratio also. Gonna load up on silver next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIGA Posted June 29, 2008 Report Share Posted June 29, 2008 Oh, yes, I also noted this. I wonder what kind of people read his reports and get confused: "is this 1930, or do we have a bottom and it's going up from here?" Anyway, IMO Puplava is too bullish on stocks/the Dow. The 'creamy filling' also hasn't happened yet. But we will see. We should still talk about silver. My name is GF, but I hold 50% silver. Jim has stated clearly the creamy filling isn't as creamy as he originally thought and the dark outer layer later this year may be a lot darker than he expected. Re: tim wood, so funny he pretty much gave up this week - 'sorry i don't know, I havent got a clue.' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted June 29, 2008 Author Report Share Posted June 29, 2008 20 of silver to 1 of gold is my favoured ratio also. Gonna load up on silver next month. I think I am at 48:1, i.e. I have only slightly more gold (measured in paper currency; at a ratio of 53:1) than silver. Jim has stated clearly the creamy filling isn't as creamy as he originally thought and the dark outer layer later this year may be a lot darker than he expected. Fair enough. And bad enough that it will come even worse than he thought. Re: tim wood, so funny he pretty much gave up this week - 'sorry i don't know, I havent got a clue.' Yeah. Well, at least he admits it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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