Justin Thyme Posted July 9, 2008 Report Share Posted July 9, 2008 What's happening with gold these last few days ? It just seems very feeble - I mean, the dollar's got a big fat bullseye right over its heart today and yet gold falls away in sympathy with the mildest sell-off in crude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgnao Posted July 9, 2008 Report Share Posted July 9, 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted July 9, 2008 Report Share Posted July 9, 2008 I'm confident that this time you are right to get the rockets out. Gold has done its consolidating and is seasonally ready to make some gains. Inflation is getting worse, banks more unstable, stocks crashing, war more likely with Iran, oil likely to rocket, housing market crashing etc.. A perfect storm in golds favor (and silver) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexreeve Posted July 9, 2008 Report Share Posted July 9, 2008 What happened to: Exit all trades, long and short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgnao Posted July 9, 2008 Report Share Posted July 9, 2008 What happened to: That refers to USD trades, because I expect volatility and whipsaws which will wipe most out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted July 9, 2008 Report Share Posted July 9, 2008 <rocket pic> Is that a gold/silver rocket cgnao, or an Iranian missile? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgnao Posted July 9, 2008 Report Share Posted July 9, 2008 This is it. http://english.vietnamnet.vn/biz/2008/07/792484/ Selling land for gold, not VND 07:34' 08/07/2008 (GMT+7) VietNamNet Bridge – After a long period of quoting land prices in VND, landlords are now setting prices in gold instead of VND in order to avoid risks from the VND’s devaluation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BelfastBoy Posted July 9, 2008 Report Share Posted July 9, 2008 VietNamNet Bridge – After a long period of quoting land prices in VND, landlords are now setting prices in gold instead of VND in order to avoid risks from the VND’s devaluation. To quote a fat TV presenter. 'But this is Britian!' As if we won't be affected by the global crisis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CharlieSays Posted July 9, 2008 Report Share Posted July 9, 2008 doesnt dare look..... DOW - 237!!! wtf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted July 9, 2008 Report Share Posted July 9, 2008 Sorry, just quoting the YouTube info I just realised. Maybe the guy who wrote it meant "worth less" rather than "worthless" Sometimes a space means everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted July 9, 2008 Report Share Posted July 9, 2008 I'm wondering if a graph monkey can plot the base rate against the price of gold over the last 100 years for me please? I read earlier this week it is a myth that gold falls with falling interest rates, is this correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted July 10, 2008 Report Share Posted July 10, 2008 I just realised. Maybe the guy who wrote it meant "worth less" rather than "worthless" Sometimes a space means everything A bit like two positives cannot make a negative. Yeah, right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted July 10, 2008 Report Share Posted July 10, 2008 I'm wondering if a graph monkey can plot the base rate against the price of gold over the last 100 years for me please? I read earlier this week it is a myth that gold falls with falling interest rates, is this correct? This graph monkey has just created a US$ gold price with the Fed Funds Rate for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted July 10, 2008 Author Report Share Posted July 10, 2008 THIS is going to explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted July 10, 2008 Author Report Share Posted July 10, 2008 I'm wondering if a graph monkey can plot the base rate against the price of gold over the last 100 years for me please? I read earlier this week it is a myth that gold falls with falling interest rates, is this correct? The key seems to be real interest rates. When they're low, gold rises. But it is then difficult to get gold slowing down again. Several articles out there on it. Google Adrian Ash, Head of Research at BullionVault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted July 10, 2008 Report Share Posted July 10, 2008 The key seems to be real interest rates. I agree. I just have to find the data ! I either need CPI numbers or the real rates. It would be good to get the real CPI data Off to try and find it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted July 10, 2008 Report Share Posted July 10, 2008 I think you guys will find these two articles interesting. Some neat charts, but I can't find the right data. Gold is a "Crisis Hedge" not an Inflation hedge Updated September 20, 2007 http://inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflati...d_Inflation.asp Inflation Warning!!! How do you protect yourself now? July 18, 2006 http://inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflati...ion_Protect.asp This is funny: Bonds as we know are paper financial instruments. And traditionally paper investments do poorly in times of high inflation. Bonds are especially bad because you invest high value dollars and get paid back in "cheaper" dollars that are worth less (worthless?). ShadowStats only let you have the data by subscription. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted July 10, 2008 Report Share Posted July 10, 2008 I do not think gold holders have much to fear from the prospect of rising interest rates. Though interest rates continued to rise during the seventies, so too did gold. It took a Volcker and phenomenally high rates to finally dampen inflation and put the brakes on the gold bull then. Also, the macro-economy today looks a lot more dire than that of the seventies. If only it was a simple case of inflation.......but it seems to be a lot more complicated than that. If you have inflation, buy some gold. If, as Steve points out, you have a crisis, buy a lot of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted July 10, 2008 Report Share Posted July 10, 2008 OK, I hope I've got this right. This is the (Fed_Funds_Rate - Consumer_Price_Inflation), which I hope is the Real_Fed_Funds_Rate. Now the consumer price info includes all items (so does NOT exclude Food, energy etc) Even so, I still thinks it's way too low, but unless I can find better data..... My impression is that gold rises, and THEN the Fed raises rates. Which I think makes sense, because they keep rates low until inflation picks up, and then try to stop it. And gold is the good measure of inflation, is it not. Does that put us in about 1976 ? Does anyone remember how hot that year was ? There sure was global warming that year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted July 10, 2008 Report Share Posted July 10, 2008 I do not think gold holders have much to fear from the prospect of rising interest rates. Though interest rates continued to rise during the seventies, so too did gold. It took a Volcker and phenomenally high rates to finally dampen inflation and put the brakes on the gold bull then. Also, the macro-economy today looks a lot more dire than that of the seventies. If only it was a simple case of inflation.......but it seems to be a lot more complicated than that. If you have inflation, buy some gold. If, as Steve points out, you have a crisis, buy a lot of it. Yes, it seems that some people get frightened that they will raise rates and instantly gold will plummet and stay down. I think history shows that that is not how it works. I think you have to look carefully at the charts, and then you see how, as you say, gold goes up, and then higher rates eventually stop the bull run. I guess the summary of it is: Gold goes up when: real rates are low and people are nervous. Gold goes down when: real rates are high and everyone feels safe. That's the whole purpose of gold isn't it ?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted July 10, 2008 Report Share Posted July 10, 2008 This chart dummy has been trying to cut and paste a chart of the DOW for the past half hour. I will give you the link instead. My thought is that gold may repeat the pattern of the DOW. Now before you get upset, I mean repeat the bull market of the DOW from 1980 onwards. The DOW, like gold, traded for a long time below 1000...... before finally soaring to 14,000 over the following years. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:DJIA_historical_graph.svg I have liked Peter Schiff's idea that the DOW and gold will at some stage in the future be at the same price. I am now starting to further think that they may quickly part company, with gold continuing to soar while the DOW continues it's dive. The DOW bear nearly down to 11,000 now and can only see bad news on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gatesy Posted July 10, 2008 Report Share Posted July 10, 2008 Veerrry slow on here today. Gold and silver having a good knock on door of resistance again. Strong action in general i think over the last couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rich6400 Posted July 10, 2008 Report Share Posted July 10, 2008 Veerrry slow on here today. Gold and silver having a good knock on door of resistance again. Strong action in general i think over the last couple of weeks. So, I thought I would have a quick look at pog.. Have a look yourselves... http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted July 10, 2008 Report Share Posted July 10, 2008 So, I thought I would have a quick look at pog.. Have a look yourselves... http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html Nice... but I prefer it in white... http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegoldw.html (and http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilverw.html for silver) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tl8177 Posted July 10, 2008 Report Share Posted July 10, 2008 Nice... but I prefer it in white... http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegoldw.html (and http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilverw.html for silver) Ha. Like those. Well Gold is booming. Silver is just messing about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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