romans holiday Posted July 3, 2008 Report Share Posted July 3, 2008 My thinking was simply that a move by (any) central bank toward mitigation of inflation will have a temporarily detrimental effect on Gold. Simply because Gold is the classic inflation hedge (the best there is!). Bigger picture : This makes no difference IMO, (providing the FED don't raise rates in a big way) Gold will fly in latter 1/2 of '08! It is a common misconception today that an interest rate rise must be negative for the POG. Throughout the course of the 70's as interest rates were being raised... so too the POG went up. No doubt we will see history repeat. Let them raise their petty rates and watch them recoil in horror as that orthodox instrument fails to vanquish the vampire of inflation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted July 3, 2008 Report Share Posted July 3, 2008 The rate hike had been priced in for about a week and a half so a classic "buy rumour, sell fact" on eurodollar which weakens gold. Trichet's statement apparently wasn't hawkish enough and the payroll numbers weren't as bad as they could have been - even though they were worse than estimates . My guess on the size of the drop is that there were lot of sell orders just in case Trichet held. They were probably positioned - like mine - around $940 although, I didn't figure the hike and worse -than-estimate numbers would trigger it. What a daft world, eh ? Thanks, and yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Dali Posted July 3, 2008 Report Share Posted July 3, 2008 It is a common misconception today that an interest rate rise must be negative for the POG. Throughout the course of the 70's as interest rates were being raised... so too the POG went up. No doubt we will see history repeat. Let them raise their petty rates and watch them recoil in horror as that orthodox instrument fails to vanquish the vampire of inflation. You're quite right! Only Volcker-style moves can do gold ant real damage. Helicopter Ben just won't do that. His Keynesian upbringing means he can only continue to debase the dollar in an attempt to deavalue his chums debts. I think REAL interest rates would need to be 4-5% to turn Gold bearish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted July 3, 2008 Report Share Posted July 3, 2008 Looks like the second sortie of fighters are incoming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted July 3, 2008 Report Share Posted July 3, 2008 I'd just like to say thanks, CG. I sold about 20% this am, set my buy order and went to the park. Fully back in now, and feeling stronger than ever. Gold is showing strngth on it's up moves, not to say they've finished yet though! This manipulation is sooooooo obvious!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted July 3, 2008 Report Share Posted July 3, 2008 You're quite right! Only Volcker-style moves can do gold ant real damage. Helicopter Ben just won't do that. His Keynesian upbringing means he can only continue to debase the dollar in an attempt to deavalue his chums debts. I think REAL interest rates would need to be 4-5% to turn Gold bearish. Yep,...hmmm...... let me do the math.... 10% + 4-5% = 15% .... and we ain't gonna see that from Bernanke soon. [i wonder if this would still be too low to derail runaway inflation in the near future ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HPCSucks Posted July 3, 2008 Report Share Posted July 3, 2008 I'd just like to say thanks, CG. I sold about 20% this am, set my buy order and went to the park. Fully back in now, and feeling stronger than ever. Gold is showing strngth on it's up moves, not to say they've finished yet though! This manipulation is sooooooo obvious!! Sold 20% of what at what price and bought back at what price? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted July 3, 2008 Report Share Posted July 3, 2008 Sold 20% of what at what price and bought back at what price? 20% of my Au holding at USD945 and bought back at USD 934. Sorry, I was a bit vague! (but happy!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HPCSucks Posted July 3, 2008 Report Share Posted July 3, 2008 20% of my Au holding at USD945 and bought back at USD 934. Sorry, I was a bit vague! (but happy!) You have more courage than me. I don't like selling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!) Posted July 3, 2008 Report Share Posted July 3, 2008 Another one... yep god some days its depressing US Dollar on the Edge Imagine hurricane preparations devised by town officials, with nobody changing daily activity and habits. For two decades, the public has subsidized corrupt, crooked, conniving Wall Street elitists without a peep of objection. The problem is that the public citizenry in the Untied States is profoundly ignorant, based upon lack of reliable information and lack of ability to discern much beyond video games and reality television shows and new hamburger options and Hollywood star drug habits. The majority is clueless, while the enlightened few feel helpless to contend with a corrupted system that controls the media networks, regulatory bodies, and law enforcement. Lawsuits against JPMorgan have all failed. Challenges against the USTreasury on gold management have all failed, yet are ongoing. Challenges against the commodity exchanges on oversized short position concentration have all failed. Meanwhile, most Wall Street information shared publicly is patently untrue, self-serving, and acts as part of their corporate brokerage trading strategies. In order to act defensively in defiance, one must invest in gold and silver, or else buy into an energy firm. One should consider the possibility that either or both the GLD or SLV exchange traded funds, managed by the cartel members JPMorgan and Barclays respectively, might be assisting in suppression of mining stocks in order to acquire them later for a price as cheap as a song. This pair of titans surely is shorting gold and silver with paper futures contracts. We live in a corrupt financial world. Its mafia dons reside in New York and London. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
headmelter Posted July 3, 2008 Report Share Posted July 3, 2008 Looks like the second sortie of fighters are incoming... Not doing very well, are they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted July 3, 2008 Report Share Posted July 3, 2008 You have more courage than me. I don't like selling. I was probably just lucky, but it was a last minute decision for a short term sale and buy-back. I will be holding my position for now, though I do trade a lot on BV; I'm almost at the 0.02% trading comission threshold now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted July 3, 2008 Report Share Posted July 3, 2008 Looks like the second sortie of fighters are incoming... Indeed, I suggested they might :-) Half way back up already, and likely to finish today where we ended yesterday - not bad at all :-) Goldbugs 1: PPT 1 ...a draw today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marmite Posted July 3, 2008 Report Share Posted July 3, 2008 Indeed, I suggested they might :-) Half way back up already, and likely to finish today where we ended yesterday - not bad at all :-) Goldbugs 1: PPT 1 ...a draw today! Watch out for thin markets tommorrow. London could whack gold in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted July 3, 2008 Report Share Posted July 3, 2008 Watch out for thin markets tommorrow. London could whack gold in the morning Agreed - I'm expecting we'll consolidate for a few days/weeks - not going below 910 and fighting a bit before we get through 950. Then more of the same to 1000 by the autumn whereupon a big run up will launch. Tomorrow could be a down day, but more than 1-2% would be very surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted July 3, 2008 Report Share Posted July 3, 2008 euro at 1.5700 looks weak to me, hope gold will resist further euro failures, if they happend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted July 3, 2008 Report Share Posted July 3, 2008 euro at 1.5700 looks weak to me, hope gold will resist further euro failures, if they happend. Boy, Wall Street really put two fingers up at Trichet, didn't they? He raises by 0.25% and the EUR/USD goes from 1.5890 to 1.5692, the DOW, S&P go up, gold down.. wow.. this system needs to be destroyed and remade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted July 3, 2008 Report Share Posted July 3, 2008 Looks like the second sortie of fighters are incoming... Bandits at 2 o'clock (New York time). A second knockdown to 932.00 at the moment. Not very impressive. Aces High by Iron Maiden: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pZ5laxg8Un4 Bandits at 8 o'clock move in behind us Ten ME - 109's out of the sun Ascending and turning out spitfires to face them Heading straight for them I press my guns. Rolling, turning, diving Rolling, turning, diving, goin' again Run, live to fly, fly to live, do or die Run, live to fly, fly to live, Aces high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Thyme Posted July 3, 2008 Report Share Posted July 3, 2008 Easy, fellas ! The dollar bulls needed something to go into the Independence Day holiday on a high. Let's look at what they're coming back to next week . . . The ECB's credibility is intact, the Fed's is in tatters. The non-farm payrolls and the jobless claims confirmed the economy is in recession in everything but name. GM is worth $6bn. Trading in Ambac's shares were halted yesterday and heavy bank writedowns are just around the corner. The dollar's still toast and gold's still heading up. This time last week we were under $900 . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted July 3, 2008 Author Report Share Posted July 3, 2008 ...GM is worth $6bn. ... Hmm. Optimists! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted July 3, 2008 Report Share Posted July 3, 2008 The dollar's still toast and gold's still heading up. This time last week we were under $900 . . . I bet Asia will wake up and finish the green back after reading the ECB decision. there is no volume in this sell off of gold today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted July 4, 2008 Report Share Posted July 4, 2008 Could this be a big day for gold? Bradford Bingley is on its **** in the UK and the USA are on a bank holiday. http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=3551 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Compounded Posted July 4, 2008 Report Share Posted July 4, 2008 Could this be a big day for gold? Bradford Bingley is on its **** in the UK and the USA are on a bank holiday. http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=3551 I just believe in the fundmentals - they will out. Never in a day though - never ever. I have had a few thoughts on GF's very high gold values - they seem silly but Fundamental will out - we have had three generations now of pretty much the whole population deprived of gold money - now fiat is all the population know - gold to them is not money never has been gold is jewellry. In Law's Mississippi scheme's 5 year fiat experiment gold was circulating alongside the paper money throughout, the transfer back to gold was rapid. In pre 1900 examples of fiat fiascos that we gold bugs cite circulating gold coin was in the memory of most of the population. This is different fiat has been around so long that nobody can remember anything else - it has to utterly fail IMO before the dispossed will turn to something else - that will be gold because there is nothing else but even then it may take time for them to realize the fact - they will IMO look for a safe fiat any fiat first. In 20th Century hyperinflations in mid and lower tier countries the dollar or other more stable fiat was held as the main safe currency not gold. Gold is not recognised as a currency by nearly everyone. In short gold is undervalued and still mostly seen as a sort of weird inflation beating commodity that is unlike anything else that may boom to make hansome profit in a crisis; IMO gold has a hell of a long way to go, it may get there if the dollar collapses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted July 4, 2008 Report Share Posted July 4, 2008 Some bedtime reading: ...this guys monthly reports (Evan Koenig: senior policy advisor in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas) are REALLY worth keeping an eye on http://www.dallasfed.org/research/update-us/archive.cfm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted July 4, 2008 Report Share Posted July 4, 2008 check this out: "Orange Juice: Drink It In Last Friday, the June 27 Weekly Wrap-up drew a bold arrow pointing UP on O.J.’s price chart. " "On July 3, lumber prices soared to their highest level in one week" "Pork Bellies: The Pig Picture Back when bellies were just below a fresh contract high" http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/arc...pportunity.aspx Is Orange Juice in high demand? Are Orange trees depleting?? Pork bellies??? (what the heck is a pork bellie, never eat that) Lumber soar in a global housing crash ??? This is the commodities panic, they buy everything that is cheap. I wonder, what should be the price of gold in corn bushels or orange juice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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