GOLD

[LauraB]

I just checked with Ladbrokes - you can get odds of just 50:1 for Clingon-Clinton winning this autumns presidential election!

 

After a conversation with some thinking Americans in Portugal last week, those odds are very tempting.

 

[bitbigt]

...thinking Americans....

oxymoron? ....or at least a rare breed

[warpig]

You're brave...

 

oxymoron? ....or at least a rare breed

 

[bitbigt]

You're brave...

...or probably just stupid

 

...but at least it earnt me another visit to my profile page

 

But more seriously, whilst the 'American' dig was tongue in cheek, it does underlie my true feelings that "...thinking Western Investors...." is the more relevant oxymoron?

 

EDIT: and lets not even mention "...thinking Western Consumers...." - oops, I just did

[LauraB]

oxymoron? ....or at least a rare breed

 

Rare breed

 

Harvard

 

Maverick

 

Does not salute the flag

 

Retired, but still lectures.

 

Is of the view there is no way the average US citizen will elect a man who only represents a minority

 

& yes he is talking skin colour

 

[warpig]

I'm sure Barack Obama represents more than just his skin colour, not an intelligent comment in my book.

 

Rare breed

 

Harvard

 

Maverick

 

Does not salute the flag

 

Retired, but still lectures.

 

Is of the view there is no way the average US citizen will elect a man who only represents a minority

 

& yes he is talking skin colour

 

[wrongmove]

I agree, this is getting very silly.

 

I am not accusing you of anything. I am expressing my view of your posts. IMO they include expressions which give away a point of view, which does not match those claimed. Yes, I may be wrong, which is my problem.

 

So what on earth in my hidden agenda, in your view? I can confirm I am unaware of it myself. WYSIWYG.

 

IMO if anyone wants to put contrarian views on gold on a gold thread they are best to take care in the expressions they use.

 

For example, I participate on a property investment forum. I am conscious of the feeling of the people who tend to be on such places, and I choose my words carefully to try and avoid annoying them. Rather than just expressing opposing views, I post data, information, and I make arguments based on research.

 

I would say that I present arguments, not just state opinions. I have had many an enjoyable and enlightening (to me) debate here.

 

Now I may inadvertently use expressions that do irk people on there. And I accept that I may not be capable of realising which things I say do irk people.

 

Depends what you mean by "irk". If simply challenging someones view "irks" them, then they shouldn't be on a forum, IMHO.

 

 

I'll give you a simple example:

 

 

 

Might that statement not be a criticism of every poster on here who has talked about gold going up ?

Is that what you intended ?

Do you care about offending people on here ?

 

1. No. I deliberately said many, not all, or even most.

2. See 1.

3. I would not try to deliberately offend. I have certainly not accused anyone of having a hidden agenda or bluffing, Like you have to me. I find that pretty offensive, to be honest, but I wouldn't be in the kitchen if I couldn't stand the heat.

 

Here is another one:

 

 

 

So what did you intend by that ?

Presumably you are referring to Jim Sinclair.

Are you making an accusation ?

Why did you use the word "acolyte" ?

 

Many people on here follow Jim Sinclair. Did you intend to criticise someone who many follow ?

 

I was clearly referring to Jim Sinclair. The guy who wrote the article I posted, dated July 30th (when gold was $900). I am not making an accusation, simply repeated what was reported by GF, that JS is no longer taking phone calls.

 

I used the word acolyte to mean "A devoted follower or attendant."

 

Yes I did intend to criticise JS. Very much so. You complain about the word acolyte, then expect me to treat him like a sacred cow?

 

 

If so, do you think you can do that without getting feedback ?

 

I welcome feedback. It is the reason I post. Are you saying that JS is above critism, just because some on this board follow him?

 

But before you respond to any of this, please let me know how what I think and what I post differ. I am intrigued to know.

 

 

Just to clarify, this is one of JS's articles, July 30 2008, PoG~$900. I am just trying to point out that JS can get it totally wrong. So just because he said something, doesn't mean I am going to treat it as fact.

 

StopWorrying About The Daily Noise

 

Author: Jim Sinclair

 

Dear Extended Family,

 

Please stop your worrying.

 

Today’s market action reflects the opinion that the Fed has everything under control because they are in charge by extending the life of the Begging Bowl lending window. If read clearly, there is a possibility that this window is open to other than financial institutions. That means the system is broken and has to be artificially held up because there is no other practical solution.

 

Today’s market action is because of the President’s housing bill (actually designed by the liberals) that is going to save all the foreclosures, therein reducing home inventories and improving home prices.

 

That thesis assumes the only problem with sub-prime loans is the resetting of rates. That suggests everything is hunky dory because employment figures showed a whopping growth of 9000 jobs.

 

Today’s market action is a product of the glee in media that jobs grew at 9000 after analysts, who will never be named, predicted a 60,000 job drop. The game today is to predict dire results and then put in a better than anticipated number so all looks fine.

 

Today’s market action is in the final distillate, the euro, against which the dollar improved. It seems however to be falling somewhat from its best positions.

 

The calls I am getting today are pretty much standard operating practice.

 

This is Prechter’s and Richard's anticipated meltdown of all assets as if gold bullion holders internationally are also in Merrill and WaMu while also loaded with all kinds of derivatives. Please click here to review the Formula to see how silly that opinion is.

 

Why do people keep calling me scared to death because they read some horrible prediction from an inexperienced person who uses a used laptop to publish their blog?

 

How many metals firms have they owned?

How many exchanges have they been members of?

How much successful trading have they actually accomplished?

Did the CFTC once accuse this person and his partner of manipulating the entire world gold market?

Did the Editor of Barrons call this person a pinhead in an editorial because that person said Volcker was a class act and would succeed?

Did this person catch a top in gold and suggest at least a 15-year bear market?

Who are you listening to?

 

The financial system is broken.

Most financial agents are walking dead zombies.

Gold is going to $1200 this year.

Gold will trade at $1650 on or before 14/01/11.

The US dollar is going to .62 and thence to .52

The euro will trade at $2 or more, simply as the largest cap non-dollar on the planet.

The Asian central banks will soak up any gold the West sells.

The assumption that the West runs the East was made at the "Stupid Factory of Egocentric Xenophobia."

As a final comment, the majority of calls I received until 1am this morning starting again at 6:30am today. Are people up to their eyeballs in margin?

 

Please think twice before calling me if your problem has been reviewed to death by me.

 

If you are simply lonely, I have a soft spot in my heart for that, but not all the time.

 

Respectfully yours,

Jim

 

 

 

 

 

[wrongmove]

Tetchy but kinda fun little chat wrongmove and SteveNetwriter are having

 

Personally I find wrongmoves postings very valuable ...but I can't quite work out if, in his heart of hearts he is really neutral, a goldbug, a gold doubter, or frustrated at not being able to fall into one camp or the other. Those example 'leaks' don't really help answer that question - I've probably committed far worse myself

 

Of course, wrongmove and SteveNetwriter could be one and the same person ...aha!!!!!

 

 

Why, thank you bbt!

 

For the record, my current position in gold is neutral - I am not long or short. I do not hold.

 

Overall, I am in the "buy 10%, and hope it does badly" camp. But until I have a decent sized cache such that 10% would be meaningful, I am out.

 

I really don't have a hidden agenda. What could I possibly achieve if I did? I am not ramping or deramping gold. I am (on the whole) enjoying the debate. My understanding of the intricacies of the economy, and the implications of certain factors have increased greatly from this place, even if I occasionally have the temerity to form my own conclusions I have no interest in playing Devil's Advocate, or simply trying to wind people up. I have been a member here pretty well since the forum began.

 

And no, I am not SN! You cannot claim your fiver!

 

 

 

[wrongmove]

Now I believe Volker's policies are generally believed to be what saved the dollar before and marked the top in the gold market in 1980, If this is to be repeated then I would worry would the gold market signal the top on the very news of Obama’s election due to Volkers involvement or is this piece of information being overplayed and he has very little input on economic policy.

 

I too am interested in the effect the next president. I posted this on the election thread:

 

 

It shows that, in general, Reps tend to run up big public deficits, whereas Dems tend to run them back down again. I can't help feeling that the result in November will be influential. From a PM point of view, I would say possibly McCain good, Obama maybe much less so. But it doesn't seem to be factored at all in analysis.

 

 

 

[bitbigt]

It shows that, in general, Reps tend to run up big public deficits, whereas Dems tend to run them back down again. I can't help feeling that the result in November will be influential. From a PM point of view, I would say possibly McCain good, Obama maybe much less so. But it doesn't seem to be factored at all in analysis.

...or: Clinton just happened to be in charge whilst a global boom took place, and Bush took over as bust-part1 occured, followed by a false/temporary economic recovery (created by flooding the system with even more credit), followed by bust-part2 which is ongoing now.

 

If that analysis is correct - then the US Budget Deficit development will simply depend upon what happens with the global boom/bust cycle

 

Plus - the 'monetize everything whilst the economy resets itself at reasonable levels' approach may be the only option for any incumbent. Not sure there's ever been any alternative in the real world!

[bitbigt]

And no, I am not SN! You cannot claim your fiver!

...but you would say that wouldn't you SteveN ?

[wrongmove]

...or: Clinton just happened to be in charge whilst a global boom took place, and Bush took over as bust-part1 occured, followed by a false/temporary economic recovery (created by flooding the system with even more credit), followed by bust-part2 which is ongoing now.

 

If that analysis is correct - then the US Budget Deficit development will simply depend upon what happens with the global boom/bust cycle

 

Yes - causation vs correlation and all that, but I think US was considered to be booming for much of Bush's reign. I think there is a difference in the US to here. Here you might say the right tend to cut taxes and cut spending, whereas the left tend to raise both. In US, the right seem to cut tax, but not cut spending, whereas, I believe, the left tend to be more responsible.

[wrongmove]

...but you would say that wouldn't you SteveN ?

[Magpie]

Gold in Turdling since 1985:

 

 

Er, speaking of anti-goldbug, here I am...

 

Doesn't that graph make gold look like a pretty awful investment or inflation hedge over the period. From 1985 to the present day, any investment or savings account paying 3% interest would have beaten it. Not terribly impressive. Admittedly it would have beaten a pile of cash in a shoebox under the bed, but that's about it.

 

[azazel]

Er, speaking of anti-goldbug, here I am...

 

Doesn't that graph make gold look like a pretty awful investment or inflation hedge over the period. From 1985 to the present day, any investment or savings account paying 3% interest would have beaten it. Not terribly impressive. Admittedly it would have beaten a pile of cash in a shoebox under the bed, but that's about it.

 

Timing is every thing when investing. I should know because I specialize in bad timing.

[drminky]

Er, speaking of anti-goldbug, here I am...

 

Doesn't that graph make gold look like a pretty awful investment or inflation hedge over the period. From 1985 to the present day, any investment or savings account paying 3% interest would have beaten it. Not terribly impressive. Admittedly it would have beaten a pile of cash in a shoebox under the bed, but that's about it.

 

 

And what return would you have got if you'd invested in the Nasdaq in 2000? Or in property in mid-2007? I'd wager a fair bet nobody on this forum was holding much in the way of investment gold before 2000..

 

 

[G0ldfinger]

I too am interested in the effect the next president. I posted this on the election thread:

...

It shows that, in general, Reps tend to run up big public deficits, whereas Dems tend to run them back down again. I can't help feeling that the result in November will be influential. From a PM point of view, I would say possibly McCain good, Obama maybe much less so. But it doesn't seem to be factored at all in analysis.

Look at that man CLINTON!! Those were the times, my friend...

 

Oh well. I have a colleague who thinks they will try to make Obama's life hell by increasing IRs until the average American has permanent nosebleeding.

[G0ldfinger]

I see that magpie is again stating the obvious. The interesting question is if gold right now has the potential to go up a lot (in the not too distant future, but not instantly). My indicators all scream YES!

[notanewmember]

The bears are making a loud noise of late, and rightly so.

 

Right a bold observation by me here. OIL is breaking the 200D SMA here, so this is rock bottom technically speaking for the hardest of the hard hardcore longs. If it breaks $100 a barrel, then we can kiss the commodity run goodbye for the rest of 2008! I.e. more waiting.

 

 

Fingers crossed!

CRUDE oil ticker with 200D SMA

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/bi...&mocktick=1

[G0ldfinger]

The bears are making a loud noise of late, and rightly so.

 

Right a bold observation by me here. OIL is breaking the 200D SMA here, so this is rock bottom technically speaking for the hardest of the hard hardcore longs. If it breaks $100 a barrel, then we can kiss the commodity run goodbye for the rest of 2008! I.e. more waiting.

 

...

Let's not forget: cars do not drive on paper oil.

[notanewmember]

Don't worry, I m not selling, but hopes in making a small fortune in the near term have been bashed!

[Catflap]

Hopefully the US $ index has peaked.

[bitbigt]

Right a bold observation by me here. OIL is breaking the 200D SMA here, so this is rock bottom technically speaking for the hardest of the hard hardcore longs. If it breaks $100 a barrel, then we can kiss the commodity run goodbye for the rest of 2008! I.e. more waiting.

I'll also stick my neck out with a prediction for this month...

 

- next few days DOW and FTSE start to fall precipitously, such that they reach 10000 and 4500 by month end

 

- emergency base rate cuts happen or are signalled (BoE missed its chance today)

 

- commercial bank baleouts extended / increased

 

- Sterling will fall further, reaching 1.65 vs USD, with the fall only minimised by the fact the USDX will peak out and start to slide

 

- oil does not fall below 90 (and possibly not even or much below 100), and the fact that its refusing to go lower will become a palpable concern to economists/media

 

- inflation stats rise significantly

 

- all the above will cause a ramp up in fear, and gold will start to rally (6-8% up in USD, 10-15% in GBP, by months end)

 

[EDIT: and my bones even sense a black swan approaching ...Russia? major bank collapse? terrorist attack? high-profile Western assasination?] - bundle of fun aren't I

[wren]

The UK house prices in gold graph has appeared in a Scotsman property article (they got it from Dominic Frisby's recent MoneyWeek article.

http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/business/B...urse.4455180.jp

[bitbigt]

The UK house prices in gold graph has appeared in a Scotsman property article (they got it from Dominic Frisby's recent MoneyWeek article.

http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/business/B...urse.4455180.jp

...anyone know the primary source of this graph?

...I thought it emerged from this bb?