GOLD

[romans holiday]

But have you done it gracefully?

I remember Steve Netwriter hammering away at the importance of using log. The irony is that the log chart has so far perfectly supported my central thesis.... that gold will strengthen slowly against the dollar, and the dollar will not explode. But we are going in circles here.

[G0ldfinger]

I have to admit this lack of context to the conversation really "bugs" me.

Communication is a problem. The fault line of short and long term thinkers is aggravating it.

 

It is always the same, both parties think they can do better than the other. Both parties think that their time horizon is the more important one.

 

EDIT: I am focusing on the mid to long term as everyone knows. The problem is, short term, you always have a correction soon. Essentially, you have one every second tick.

[carbon junkie]

I remember Steve Netwriter hammering away at the importance of using log. The irony is that the log chart has so far perfectly supported my central thesis.... that gold will strengthen slowly against the dollar, and the dollar will not explode. But we are going in circles here.

That'll be a no then.

 

[romans holiday]

Communication is a problem. The fault line of short and long term thinkers is aggravating it.

 

It is always the same, both parties think they can do better than the other. Both parties think that their time horizon is the more important one.

 

EDIT: I am focusing on the mid to long term as everyone knows. The problem is, short term, you always have a correction soon. Essentially, you have one every second tick.

Communication sure is a problem.... not to mention the limitations of communicating on a forum.

 

There is always going to be discussion on the short, medium, and long term of gold for all sorts of reasons..... for those up to the gills in the stuff, and those yet to buy. Recognizing the nature of the discussions and keeping them in context helps communication. Flattening it into two-dimensional polar opposites kills it.

[G0ldfinger]

Finally there is a more vital sign of what could become a correction.

 

$950 please! Thank you.

[Peace]

HOPE is for the hopeless.

HOPE is for the ignorant.

HOPE is for the obama fans.

 

Lost count how many times i have said that.You dont need hope you need knowledge and understanding and strategy to deal with any eventuality.The only time hope enters my vocabulary is in the sense of I prepare for the worst and HOPE for the best.So as an example with regards to finances my strategy was to accumulate PHYSICAL GOLD HELD IN MY PERSONAL POSSESION as a strategy for preparation of the worst case scenario and then i hope that my calculated fears are not realised.Sadly with this example my worst fears are becoming reality in front of my very eyes so i think my strategy of worst case scenario will play out to the full.This will leave me in a very strong position to develop my strategy when as ROTHSCHILDS says "buy when the blood is on the streets".

So i feel that hope is an empty word not worth my time and is used as a propaganda tool to convince the masses not to despair when it is absolutely obvious that despair is the truth of their situation.

i am not relying on hope

 

i have planned for bad times but hope that enough people can see the fascists running the show

[G0ldfinger]

I have seen people go broke on the long side in the gold bull market of the 70s. Guess what? They are doing it again.

-- Jim Sinclair

[surfdude]

 

 

Probably the most central technical data point to my views on gold is the above blue line on the long term log chart. It denotes gold steadily strengthening against the reserve currency at around 20% a year. Gold is now continuing to correct/ consolidate as is predictable using that chart. imo it also shows the volatility of gold diminishing due no doubt to its monetization by investors and central banks.

 

Looking at the blue line, it seems the correction in gold will go to somewhere just above $1300 - $1320? and then bounce off that line and start ascending again. This could be an excellent buying opportunity.

[romans holiday]

Looking at the blue line, it seems the correction in gold will go to somewhere just above $1300 - $1320? and then bounce off that line and start ascending again. This could be an excellent buying opportunity.

Exactly. The trend is your friend.

 

Hypothetically speaking, if gold was to correct/ consolidate 50 or $100 at these heights this is really not such a big deal as when gold corrected that much a few years back. The way I look at it is "what is the difference in the actual amount of gold I can buy". When gold was say $700 and corrected to $600 one could then buy another 15% worth of gold on the correction. Now with gold at $1400, a correction of $100 would only enable you to buy an extra 7% odd... a correction of $50 an extra 3.5%. Thus with the volatility decreasing, in real terms, there has to be a point at which you'd have to wonder why you'd wait for such a small [and only possible] gain.

 

The way I see it is the main factor determining whether one should buy or not doesn't depend so much on the present price as on more subjective factors such as, how much liquid wealth do I have, what percentage if any do I have in gold, what is my tolerance for risk, what is my understanding of gold, money, and money illusion etc.

[Errol]

Sinclair - Gold will rise/fall $100-300 in a day.

 

Get ready for massive volatility.

[G0ldfinger]

I see that one of the top callers is now a permanent feature of the site (top left). The other one, Prechter/ElliottWave, is also there, but at least no portrait of him.

 

Let's hope this site won't turn in a tomb of premature top-callerism.

 

EDIT: To be fair, one of the greatest gold bulls is represented too: J. Turk. But with our own Bubb on top of it, the top-callers are 3:1 outnumbering the gold bull. That shows you that we're far from the mania/bubble stage with gold. And this here is "global edge", and not mainstream.

[Pixel8r]

I think "gold-bugs" prefer the linear chart because it looks like gold has exploded when it fact it is just rising at a measured pace. The problem with these charts, as I mentioned, is it also makes the price look precarious for those that are thnking of buying here.

 

Look at the log and linear charts. Which makes it easier to buy?

Right back from my very petty banning, it seems it is okay for certain mods to act how they like on GEI these days. Don't worry I will stick to using the PC emoticons to express myself

 

Here's a log chart I have been showing for the last two years. Now I'm getting confused does this make me a gold bug or not in your eyes? You have been saying that I am a hyper-inflationist goldbug but also that i don't like using log charts, as they don't show what I want. Looks to me that you havn't been playing attention and just like to pick fault at whatever I post because I don't agree that holding dollars over silver is a good move (-45% so far this year ).

 

BTW this is a log chart which shows the rise in the gold price in pounds fits to an exponential curve, I first started showing this two years ago and it is still fitting. I prefer to use whichever chart I feel like as I can read and understand both, you seem to think that if a newbie sees the wrong sort they could lose all their money. I think if a newbie is that stupid they deserve to lose all their cash, this isn't kindergarten we are all adults here.

 

[romans holiday]

BTW this is a log chart which shows the rise in the gold price in pounds fits to an exponential curve, I first started showing this two years ago and it is still fitting. I prefer to use whichever chart I feel like as I can read and understand both, you seem to think that if a newbie sees the wrong sort they could lose all their money. I think if a newbie is that stupid they deserve to lose all their cash, this isn't kindergarten we are all adults here.

Yeah, it's an interesting chart that one. But the only fiat currency I've ever taken seriously, as a benchmark of sorts for gold, is the dollar.... being the reserve currency. I think it's fair to say that most consider the USD gold price as central to the macro picture.

 

I've always considered the pound a marginal currency compared to the dollar. There's a much greater chance that the UK could face hyper-inflation than the US.

 

There's a lot more volatility of the gold price in non-dollar currencies [Yen is a notable exception]... and also a greater pace of decline. The Aussie and Kiwi charts for example are horrendous.

 

edit: For my core holding, I prefer gold to silver, and then silver to dollars. The dollars are a hedge. I'm more interested in managing risk, volatility and the long term as opposed to maximizing profits in what could turn out to be only paper gains in the present. Also, I think the dollar will retain quite a bit of purchasing power against more peripheral currencies such as my native currency the Kiwi... and certainly the pound. Exter's reverse liquidity triangle doesn't pit gold and the dollar against each-other as hyper-inflation theory does... though it does predict gold will strengthen more.

 

 

[Pixel8r]

edit: For my core holding, I prefer gold to silver, and then silver to dollars. The dollars are a hedge. I'm more interested in managing risk, volatility and the long term as opposed to maximizing profits in what could turn out to be only paper gains in the present. Also, I think the dollar will retain quite a bit of purchasing power against more peripheral currencies such as my native currency the Kiwi... and certainly the pound. Exter's reverse liquidity triangle doesn't pit gold and the dollar against each-other as hyper-inflation theory does... though it does predict gold will strengthen more.

I understand your need to manage your risk but still do not understand how holding dollars can be a hedge, wouldn't it be better to hold US treasury bonds instead. That way you would have the same anti gold hedging ability as dollars but would also be gaining some interest. I also get bored listening to you repeating your approach almost daily like it is the only sensible approach, you need to look outside your box IMO.

 

I wouldn't like to do either as I think holding any fiat currency is not very clever at the moment, we are in the middle of a fiat currency crisis where they are being printed to oblivion. IMO Round 2 of QE will be expanded before the 8 months are up, bond holders are already saying that it isn't enough.

 

First Fed QE-2 buying fails to lift Treasury prices

 

* Prices fall farther after Fed purchases

 

* Maturity range for Fed buying is between 4 and 6 years

 

* European debt crisis confounds U.S. bond market

 

* Trading desks understaffed after holiday (Recasts lead, adds quote, sentiment data, updates prices)

 

By Emily Flitter

 

NEW YORK, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Prices of U.S. Treasuries fell on Friday as the first day of heavy purchasing by the Federal Reserve failed to jump-start wider demand for low-yielding government debt.

 

The Fed bought $7.23 billion in Treasury paper on Friday with maturities of between four and six years under its $600 billion bond-buying program announced last week to stimulate the economy. Prices hit session lows after the Fed completed its purchases, with both seven-year notes and 10-year notes trading a full point lower in price.

 

"Bears are still in charge," said Lou Brien, market strategist at DRW Trading in Chicago. "They were waiting for the purchase results and saw no surprises. Then they started selling again."...

 

 

[Pixel8r]

[bitbigt]

I'm with Pixel, it doesn't matter how acurate some posters are on this site there are others who are infuriating with their continued lack of grace in the face of being wrong for months and months on end.

 

I think you should reinstate Pixel and give him/her a bit more leeway as IMO the response given to Pixel was very ungracious in view of the accuracy of Pixels chart.

 

IMO Pixel has given a great deal more to this site than the poster to whom the quote was directed.

 

IMO there are some on this site who need to stop lecturing and start listening to those with a proven track record of being acurate.

 

I might also like to point out that it seems to me that a lot of the posters on this site are British but many of the mods are not - I think its an over reaction in many cases as the language is lost in translation.

 

We do actually swear quite a lot in the UK its is part of our cultural makeup. Now for example if you go across to the North American sites there is virtually no swearing its all hugs and kisses and annoying little smiley blinking icon type things that most Brits would never use. In fact I know it really annoys many UK posters but that is life.

 

I think a lot of the banning these days is merely a cultural misunderstanding.

+1 (yes, I know I'm late. But I've been otherwise occupied, and wanted to support the many good and IMPORTANT points made here by CJ)

[bitbigt]

NOW SOMEONE HAVE THE DECENCY TO REINSTATE PIXEL8R POSTING ABILITIES AND APOLOGIES TO HIM FOR THE RIDICULOUS PETTY BAN.

Perhaps Pixel8R should get a 1 banning credit

 

Personally, I think bans are handed out far too readily. [wonder if I'll be banned for saying that?? ]

[fitkid]

Perhaps Pixel8R should get a 1 banning credit

 

Personally, I think bans are handed out far too readily. [wonder if I'll be banned for saying that?? ]

YES and YES .

[fitkid]

I see that one of the top callers is now a permanent feature of the site (top left). The other one, Prechter/ElliottWave, is also there, but at least no portrait of him.

 

Let's hope this site won't turn in a tomb of premature top-callerism.

 

EDIT: To be fair, one of the greatest gold bulls is represented too: J. Turk. But with our own Bubb on top of it, the top-callers are 3:1 outnumbering the gold bull. That shows you that we're far from the mania/bubble stage with gold. And this here is "global edge", and not mainstream.

"GROUP THINK" be careful GF.

[DoctorSolar]

I see that one of the top callers is now a permanent feature of the site (top left).

 

The true NUMBER ONE gold timer of recent months as far as I can tell has been Stewart Thomson of graceland updates. Yep the same guy who was lambasted as a gold bug nutter full of nonsense on this very forum has called the junior gold market better than anyone. While others were "lightening up" he was encouraging buy programs which have resulted in numerous clear doubles. You would now have your principle back and be riding all these shares for free now.

 

Gold is over 1300 many of these juniors are pulling gold out the ground for under 400. Others have defined resources that the majors will have to buy because they have completely failed to do any exploration of their own. They were to busy forward selling their reserves at 500 an ounce!

 

It seems pretty clear that the time for the juniors with cash and reserves or entering production is now.

[Errol]

Stewart Thomson is excellent. I enjoy reading his stuff.

[Pixel8r]

Be careful this is not a log graph!

 

 

 

[romans holiday]

Be careful this is not a log graph!

Why? There's practically no difference between log and linear on short term graphs. I think we both agree it's the long term that's more important?

 

Looking at the long term trend, there's a good chance this short term trend line will be broken.... if not now, soon.

[Pixel8r]

Why? There's practically no difference between log and linear on short term graphs. I think we both agree it's the long term that's more important?

 

Looking at the long term trend, there's a good chance this short term trend line will be broken.... if not now, soon.

As I have explained to you before the live chart at goldprice.org doesn't allow lines on a log graph and as you have said above it doesn't really make any difference on short term charts. I am posting the graph above to show that even with this sharp pullback we have still not broken the three month uptrend. Of course I expect this uptrend to be broken at some point, but just not at the moment. I am actually expecting this trend to last till February 2011.

 

STOP BEING SO DAMM ANAL ABOUT LOG OR LINEAR GRAPHS! (Does this get me another ban? )

 

 

[romans holiday]

As I have explained to you before the live chart at goldprice.org doesn't allow lines on a log graph and as you have said above it doesn't really make any difference on short term charts. I am posting the graph above to show that even with this sharp pullback we have still not broken the three month uptrend. Of course I expect this uptrend to be broken at some point, but just not at the moment. I am actually expecting this trend to last till February 2011.

 

STOP BEING SO DAMM ANAL ABOUT LOG OR LINEAR GRAPHS! (Does this get me another ban? )

Look Pixel8r, if you read my post again, you will see that I'm agreeing with you... that it makes no difference to a short term chart whether it is in log or linear. "Why?" refers to your comment that we should be careful because it's linear.....

 

What do you think goldfinger? Worthy of another suspension?