lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!) Posted February 16, 2009 Report Share Posted February 16, 2009 just a gues but did Japan purchase the gold from the IMF LINK Did Japan Just Buy the IMF's 400 Tonnes of Gold? by Adrian Burridge $100 billion from Japan for 400 tonnes of gold works out to about $7,500 per ounce. http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2009/pr0932.htm What else would Japan have gotten in return for the funds? IMF was selling 400 tonnes. (32,151 ounces per tonne multiplied by 400 multiplied by 7,500 = $96.45 billion). Japan was lending money. What else did the IMF have in the way of assets to sell? http://in.reuters.com/article/domesticNews...B54061420090211 Japan at 765 tonnes per the latest World Gold Council statistical report would have moved past Switzerland into 6th place if I am correct on Japan buying the 400 tonnes of gold from the IMF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lupercal Posted February 16, 2009 Report Share Posted February 16, 2009 What else would Japan have gotten in return for the funds? Power and influence certainly. A good reason not buy US treasuries? Use of the IMF to store money? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted February 16, 2009 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2009 I assume this uses the official RPI numbers. I would like to see the same thing repeated with the ShadowStats numbers for GoldUS$. People like Robert Shiller appear to stick to the official numbers. I understand why, but it gives a false impression. ie the gold price now should be a lot lower. One of the problems is that Shadow Stats time series are proprietary. John Williams should possibly make some of his stats publicly available to get more publicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted February 16, 2009 Report Share Posted February 16, 2009 One of the problems is that Shadow Stats time series are proprietary. John Williams should possibly make some of his stats publicly available to get more publicity. Yes, that's the problem I have, otherwise I'd have done it myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted February 16, 2009 Report Share Posted February 16, 2009 In times of crisis, never forget the value of gold William Rees-Mogg : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Rees-Mogg February 16, 2009 http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/c...icle5740620.ece The dollar is simply a piece of paper. Gold is a much better store of value and is the best insurance against future shocks. Last week was a bad one for bank shares; after the HBOS £8.5 billion loss, Lloyds shares fell by a third and other bank shares fell as well. Yet it was a very good week for the gold price, which closed on Friday at $935 an ounce, after reaching what was nearly a seven-month high of $953.30 on Wednesday. Barclays Capital commented that gold prices were resuming their long-run bull trend after eight consecutive years of gains. For longer than the past eight years I have been arguing that investment in gold is an essential insurance against financial shocks. Last week was a classic example. Respectable British bank shares have now fallen by up to 90 per cent, while the gold price has risen by more than 200 per cent since Gordon Brown began selling the Bank of England's gold reserve. I have been following the gold price since I published The Reigning Error, a short book on inflation, in 1974. I have not consistently advised people to buy gold - like all other assets, gold can become significantly overvalued, as it did in 1980. However, I have found that the movements of the gold price are one of the most useful pieces of evidence about the health of the world economy. Mr Brown's sale of gold was an avoidable error. My friend the MP Peter Tapsell repeatedly warned him in Parliament not to do it. People buy gold when they are nervous about the economy, and they are right to do so because gold is a unique commodity. It has to a high degree two qualities that are seldom found together: liquidity and reality. It has strong liquidity; it can almost always be bought, sold or exchanged. There are other liquid assets, of which the US dollar is probably supreme, but they lack gold's quality of real value. Dollars do not constitute a real asset, such as property or “real estate”. The dollar is simply a piece of paper. Gold has been a much better store of value than the dollar. In 1873 one of the leading British economists, William Stanley Jevons, published a short book, Money and the Mechanism of Exchange. By 1887 it had reached its eighth edition. Unfortunately, there are few modern economists who do not suffer from the delusion that new truths make old ones obsolete. Great mistakes could have been avoided in 2008 if bankers and politicians had studied Jevons, even though his little book was written 136 years ago. Jevons quotes Herbert Spencer as observing that “it is the grave misfortune of the moral and political sciences that they are continually discussed by those who have never laboured at the elementary grammar or the simple arithmetic of the subject”. That was true then, and it is true now. Indeed, there are still some people who believe that poverty can be abolished by the issue of printed bits of paper. Nowadays such people usually call themselves Keynesians, though their doctrine is not to be found in the works of Maynard Keynes, a much less simplistic economist than some of his modern followers. These so-called neo-Keynesians are hostile to gold, usually for two reasons. They see gold as the natural enemy of the paper money in which they put their trust; they see gold-related systems as imposing a discipline on the unlimited issue of paper money, and they reject that. World trade depends on the existing global system, which is one of paper currencies, separately managed and largely unconvertible. These currencies float in terms of each other, sometimes with a fixed rate in relation to a larger currency. Since President Nixon closed the gold window in 1971, there has been no fixed-rate convertibility between any of these paper currencies and gold. In the past 40 years the world exchange system has suffered from two periods of high inflation and is now suffering from the worst depression since the 1930s. In 1873 Jevons could already write: “It is hardly requisite to tell again the well-worn tale of the over-issue of paper money which has almost always followed the removal of the legal necessity of convertibility. Hardly any civilised nation exists, which has not suffered from the scourge of paper money at one time or another... Time after time in the earlier history of New England and some of the other states now forming part of the American Union, paper money had been issued and had brought ruin.” Daniel Webster's opinion should never be forgotten. Of paper money he says: “We have suffered more from this cause than from every other cause or calamity. It has killed more men, pervaded and corrupted the choicest interests of our country more, and done more injustice than even the arms and artifices of our enemy.” In the 1930s some nations tried to beat the slump by competitive devaluations. In the present crisis, Britain has already experienced a very big devaluation of the pound, taking it down by a quarter against the dollar. Every country, led by the United States, has been issuing money, often in very large amounts, in order to bail out its banks. No one knows the total value of these national injections of cash into the banking systems. As the earlier injections have not restored stability to national economies, further injections inevitably will be made. All will be made in unconvertible currency, and overissue will occur. .... Both Jevons and Keynes believed in the need for what Jevons called “a worldwide system of international money”. Without it, recurrent crises, such as the present one, will be inevitable. Governments need to create a new world system, in which gold, as a stabiliser, should play its part. For individuals, gold remains the best insurance against future shocks and the best store of value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted February 17, 2009 Report Share Posted February 17, 2009 This will upset Ker. Gold Bull Market Projects to $2,300 by end of 2010 Remember the three stages? Initial pullback, breakout, retest and blastoff. The market is now at the blastoff phase. In terms of the targets I come up with $1,205 and $2,087. I should also mention that the next strongest Fibonacci targets are $1,500 and $2,300. I neglected to mention that in the cases seen on the last page, the targets were hit in less than a year (after the pullback to support). I would be surprised if our target of $2,087 wasn't hit within two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted February 17, 2009 Report Share Posted February 17, 2009 The Euro seems to be in trouble Gold and Silver - going up. That's GoldUS$ = 950 passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted February 17, 2009 Report Share Posted February 17, 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narco Posted February 17, 2009 Report Share Posted February 17, 2009 Hmm reminds me of the Bear Sterns event where gold spike up to $1030 overnight. Something big has happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted February 17, 2009 Report Share Posted February 17, 2009 I've got to try and fix this or the entire world financial system is going to collapse: :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted February 17, 2009 Report Share Posted February 17, 2009 Just looked at Kitco and saw that they have blasted off. Gold $955.60 and silver $13.86. Euro dropping too - $1.2649. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 17, 2009 Report Share Posted February 17, 2009 (from the GEI Conference call this Wed. thread): To be discussed then ...? Gold uber alles - Is it the "only remaining Safe Haven" ? Banks (BKX) have stayed weak, as money has fled them, seeking a Safe Haven. Here's Gold (GLD) vs. TBonds and Yen ... 6-mos.update : YTD-Since Jan.1 US T-Bonds (TLT) and the Yen (FXY) are tailing off, while Gold (GLD) stays strong. The favoring of Gold is even more pronounced since the beginning of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted February 17, 2009 Report Share Posted February 17, 2009 We're in uncharted GBP territory now... Peaked at £680.9/t oz 30 mins ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ologhai Posted February 17, 2009 Report Share Posted February 17, 2009 We're in uncharted GBP territory now... Peaked at £680.9/t oz 30 mins ago. Is anyone else feeling that we're overdue a bit of a pull-back/consolidation? Perhaps if I were a little more trading-minded, I might be thinking about selling a little in the expectation of being able to buy more gold with the money in the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allyjcambo Posted February 17, 2009 Report Share Posted February 17, 2009 Is anyone else feeling that we're overdue a bit of a pull-back/consolidation? Perhaps if I were a little more trading-minded, I might be thinking about selling a little in the expectation of being able to buy more gold with the money in the near future. Apologies to Goldfinger et al in advance, but yes, I have sold some this morning. Mine is a blunt instrument approach: I don’t have any targets but merely sell some when a new high is hit and buy back when the price falls back. However, I never trade the core, just the froth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexreeve Posted February 17, 2009 Report Share Posted February 17, 2009 Is anyone else feeling that we're overdue a bit of a pull-back/consolidation? Perhaps if I were a little more trading-minded, I might be thinking about selling a little in the expectation of being able to buy more gold with the money in the near future. cgnao called £720/toz for this leg, and he was on the mark with the low. With the amount of random changes introduced by crazy politicians to try and influence the economy I don't know how anything can be predicted. All UK banks could be nationalised tomorrow without any warning and without observing the principles of the rule of law. A blanket shorting ban perhaps. IMF could actually sell some gold (doubtfull). Obama may rush through a 10 trillion stimulus next week. How can anyone forecast anything in this environment (except perhaps disaster, because coherent planning is impossible in this environment). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted February 17, 2009 Report Share Posted February 17, 2009 Is anyone else feeling that we're overdue a bit of a pull-back/consolidation? Perhaps if I were a little more trading-minded, I might be thinking about selling a little in the expectation of being able to buy more gold with the money in the near future. Hey Have you been on recently ? Several times I've wondered where you were. I don't think it's a good idea to try and beat the house. Buy and hold, and enjoy the long-term ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted February 17, 2009 Report Share Posted February 17, 2009 I don't think it's a good idea to try and beat the house. Buy and hold, and enjoy the long-term ride. Seconded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted February 17, 2009 Report Share Posted February 17, 2009 Seconded Thirded. This move has me spooked, either we're looking at imminent meltdown and this really is the moment gold ascends to the heavens, or we're about to set up a doozie of a double top at $1030. Not the time for taking a risk tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pluto Posted February 17, 2009 Report Share Posted February 17, 2009 Take that you gold shorty.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dst Posted February 17, 2009 Report Share Posted February 17, 2009 Linky Karl Denninger getting spooked last night I do not know what is going on here, and I don't think I want to. Someone, apparently someone in Asia, wants dollars. A LOT of dollars. There is a forced-liquidation event underway that is massive, it is against all asset classes and it is spreading. It originated at approximately 7:15 CT this evening and originated out of Asia somewhere. All of the primary currency crosses got hit at once - Euro, Pound, Yen - all weakened dramatically against the dollar and it is still going on. The Asian stock markets got walloped at the same time in coordinated waves of forced selling. At the same time the US futures markets got nailed as well, down some six handles on the /ES in a near-vertical drop. While this sounds "not that big" to move these markets in a coordinated fashion like this is a trillion-dollar enterprise - this is not some small company that went bankrupt, or even a large company. Link also has a youtube clip of nuclear explosions.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lupercal Posted February 17, 2009 Report Share Posted February 17, 2009 Very interesting... How would someone make money out of this? Who could do it? Is this due to a massive cash need due to bad investments or part of a money making scheme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
littledavesab Posted February 17, 2009 Report Share Posted February 17, 2009 Errh, excuse me? Basically ALL the big banks in the US, Europe and the UK are insolvent. This is UNPRECEDENTED. IMO, only a fool would give gold away at the moment. Catflap, some of your arguments sound reasonable every now and then. But don't delude yourself into thinking that we have been here before. Because one thing is for sure: we haven't. For once I agree with GF. We havent been here before - at least as far as the UK is concerned I dont think that we have been this close to the edge of the cliff since the banking crisis of the 1800's Question is what stage are we at? Somewhere near the end of the beginning? The Euro situation is starting to look perilous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
littledavesab Posted February 17, 2009 Report Share Posted February 17, 2009 What else would Japan have gotten in return for the funds? Would make sense for Japan to have bought the IMF gold 1. Japan is a great friend of the US and wants to support it still - as its exports depend on the US market still. IMF needs money and is running out. If it bought the gold it got something in return. If it donated to the IMF it gets nowt. 2. it was for sale - selected extract although the while article is good http://www.business24-7.ae/articles/2009/2...af288efb75.aspx "There is a selling pressure from IMF. There is news that IMF may sell gold at any point of time," said Sajith Kumar PK, Vice-President, JRG Metals and Commodities, UAE. According to IMF, the official gold reserves (including those of IMF and BIS) amounted to around 35,580 tonnes at the end of 1990. By mid-2008, this had reduced to around 29,780 tonnes, a 16 per cent fall. The vast majority of the 5,800 tonnes reduction was due to sales by European central banks, notably signatories to the two central bank gold agreements (CBGA 1 and CBGA 2) whose reported holdings reduced by over 5,500 tonnes. --------------------------------- Ps has anyone else noticed how the price of gold and commodities in general have increased since the 1980's - I do not believe this is solely due to the China factor. I do believe the western world writing down some of Africa's debt which dates back to the 1970's is a contributory factor. Has anyone else here looked at the IMF's reports to see where its gold came from - was taken from African countries as repayment of previous IMF bail outs. Would this not have contributed towards keeping the gold price low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bonobo Posted February 17, 2009 Report Share Posted February 17, 2009 I was under the impression IMF gold sales require approval by the US congress. That would not have happened without word leaking onto the web I would have thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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