wren Posted March 31, 2008 Report Share Posted March 31, 2008 Ooops forgot link: http://www.aci.net/kalliste/Gold3.htm From a quick look, that "book" looks like it could be a good overview of the business. Always so much to read. For those at work, the front page of that interesting site has music and lots of quite artistic pictures of nekkid women. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted March 31, 2008 Report Share Posted March 31, 2008 What do people think, are they being to cautious? Goldseek - Gold Market Update Silverseek - Silver Market Update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted March 31, 2008 Report Share Posted March 31, 2008 From a quick look, that "book" looks like it could be a good overview of the business. Always so much to read. For those at work, the front page of that interesting site has music and lots of quite artistic pictures of nekkid women. WOW !!!! Did you see the flying dolphin one ?! That is so cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted March 31, 2008 Report Share Posted March 31, 2008 WOW !!!! Did you see the flying dolphin one ?! That is so cool Yeah, a nearby link goes to another site about the artist (French, living in Hawaii). What's the track played on the synthesizer? It's a female singer of the original song but I forget the name. Link to site with galleries (fantasy art): http://www.jeanlucbozzoli.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted March 31, 2008 Report Share Posted March 31, 2008 What do people think, are they being to cautious? Goldseek - Gold Market Update Silverseek - Silver Market Update No, they are right. Gold and silver are going to collapse, and everyone is going to do really well investing in US$s. And pigs will fly Short-term who knows ? Th question is, where do you put your money where it's safe in the mean time ? I'd rather be safe and life through dips than get that better price and be prone to losing everything. I also think the idea of correlating gold/silver with other commodities quite ludicrous. We error prone humans tend to see patterns or correlations where none exist. And don't forget, anyone who talks about gold price changes without mentioning manipulation is probably not taking a proper view of things. All just IMO of course. By the way, check out the iTulip thread I started. Some great responses already. http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3708 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted March 31, 2008 Report Share Posted March 31, 2008 Yeah, a nearby link goes to another site about the artist (French, living in Hawaii). What's the track played on the synthesizer? It's a female singer of the original song but I forget the name. I missed all that I've gotta get some sleep. Dead man walking I'll look tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted March 31, 2008 Report Share Posted March 31, 2008 No, they are right. Gold and silver are going to collapse, and everyone is going to do really well investing in US$s. And pigs will fly Short-term who knows ? Th question is, where do you put your money where it's safe in the mean time ? I'd rather be safe and life through dips than get that better price and be prone to losing everything. I also think the idea of correlating gold/silver with other commodities quite ludicrous. We error prone humans tend to see patterns or correlations where none exist. And don't forget, anyone who talks about gold price changes without mentioning manipulation is probably not taking a proper view of things. All just IMO of course. By the way, check out the iTulip thread I started. Some great responses already. http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3708 I was also thinking that the reason we had the big sell off was due to the Bear Sterns rescue. I read somewhere that they had a big holding of gold and a large dollar short, both of which have been sold to raise cash. Hence the drop in the gold price and the gain in the dollar. Was wondering why the dollar would be gaining strength after the FED had cut rates by 3/4%. Have just found the article - Junior Mining Companies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 31, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 31, 2008 Please get your ripe tomatoes ready. Gold Fundamentals Are Being Ignored http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4159.html :blink: :blink: :blink: Is that guy in a drug and drink induced haze ? I assume he is buying the stable US$ One of the most moronic articles I've ever read. The highlights are: The most amazing thing is that gold prices have only increased by 50% over this time, thereby showing the underlying weakness in this commodity. Try removing one quarter of the world's production of live cattle – beef prices would triple. ... There will be no safety net. Unlike with the stock market or house prices, the federal treasury will cheer mercilessly when gold prices start to plummet. He seems ignorant towards the idea that this could be a sign of price manipulation. :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted March 31, 2008 Report Share Posted March 31, 2008 Segment 5 - John Williams, originator of Shadow Government Statistics, explains why he believes we'll end up in a hyperinflationary depression. http://www.kereport.com/audio/0329-05.mp3 Segment 6 - Bill Murphy talks about the volatility in the gold price. http://www.kereport.com/audio/0329-06.mp3 Is The Silver Squeeze On? - by David Morgan, Mar 28 2008 mms://media.kitco.com/weeklyreport/morgan20080328.mp3 Pixel8r, Listen to the Bill Murphy one. Re Bear Sterns gold long sell-off. Then why did silver drop ? No they say - it's just manipulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted March 31, 2008 Report Share Posted March 31, 2008 One of the most moronic articles I've ever read. The highlights are: He seems ignorant towards the idea that this could be a sign of price manipulation. :lol: I can't disagree. I can't think of a worse article Remember gold is a commodity. It's never been used as money :lol: :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinecu Posted March 31, 2008 Report Share Posted March 31, 2008 By the way, check out the iTulip thread I started. Some great responses already. http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3708 I'm getting the impression that '-ve lease rates' be they real or implied are rather bullish for gold...IMO it means there is very little demand to short gold. Suggesting a widespread belief that gold will rise from here? edit:spelling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted March 31, 2008 Report Share Posted March 31, 2008 I wonder what we'll get out of the US today? My gut tells me it's going to be another sell-off attempt. The question is, how far will it get? I just can't get excited about those lease rates. It may mean something, but I seriously doubt it gives us any information from which to derive a trading advantage. If you can't interpret it, what good does it do you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 31, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 31, 2008 I sent this here to Jim Sinclair some time ago. He never responded, which is OK, since he is incredibly busy. But it sort of shows what happens to the price of gold when the Fed monetizes all this mortgage crap. Of course these are all fantasy numbers. But I think it explains the principle quite well. Comments welcome. The Fed can never go bust. The market knows this intuitively. In terms of the balance sheet, market forces therefore sooner or later shape prices such that the Fed has equity greater than or equal to zero. So, what does it mean for gold when the Fed monetizes worthless asset-backed paper at face value? Assume BEFORE MONETIZATION a Fed balance of: T-bills are risk-free, i.e. essentially $1 in T-bills is as good as one Federal Reserve Note (FRN 1). Assuming Assets=Liabilities, we must have 1,000 oz gold equivalent to FRN 750,000, since 750,000 = 1,300,000 - 550,000. The equilibrium price the market wants is therefore 1 oz gold = FRN 750 = $750. Assume now that the asset-backed paper market takes a hit, and the Fed is forced to monetize mortgage-backed securities (MBS) that have lost 75% of their value. The Fed buys them at their face value of $1,200,000 (market value $300,000) with freshly printed FRN 1,200,000. The new Fed balance AFTER MONETIZATION is: Under the old gold price of $750, assets sum up to $1,600,000, and the Fed is bankrupt since liabilities are at FRN 2,500,000. HOWEVER, the market knows that this can't happen! So the market revalues gold to establish equilibrium. The new gold price is then such that once more assets=Liabilities, i.e. 1,000 oz gold = $2,500,000 - $550,000 - $300,000 = $165,000. The result is 1 oz gold at $1,650. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
safebetter Posted March 31, 2008 Report Share Posted March 31, 2008 I sent this here to Jim Sinclair some time ago. He never responded, which is OK, since he is incredibly busy. But it sort of shows what happens to the price of gold when the Fed monetizes all this mortgage crap. Of course these are all fantasy numbers. But I think it explains the principle quite well. Comments welcome. The Fed can never go bust. The market knows this intuitively. In terms of the balance sheet, market forces therefore sooner or later shape prices such that the Fed has equity greater than or equal to zero. So, what does it mean for gold when the Fed monetizes worthless asset-backed paper at face value? Assume BEFORE MONETIZATION a Fed balance of: T-bills are risk-free, i.e. essentially $1 in T-bills is as good as one Federal Reserve Note (FRN 1). Assuming Assets=Liabilities, we must have 1,000 oz gold equivalent to FRN 750,000, since 750,000 = 1,300,000 - 550,000. The equilibrium price the market wants is therefore 1 oz gold = FRN 750 = $750. Assume now that the asset-backed paper market takes a hit, and the Fed is forced to monetize mortgage-backed securities (MBS) that have lost 75% of their value. The Fed buys them at their face value of $1,200,000 (market value $300,000) with freshly printed FRN 1,200,000. The new Fed balance AFTER MONETIZATION is: Under the old gold price of $750, assets sum up to $1,600,000, and the Fed is bankrupt since liabilities are at FRN 2,500,000. HOWEVER, the market knows that this can't happen! So the market revalues gold to establish equilibrium. The new gold price is then such that once more assets=Liabilities, i.e. 1,000 oz gold = $2,500,000 - $550,000 - $300,000 = $165,000. The result is 1 oz gold at $1,650. GF - presumably this also applied to BoE - therefore are we also saying we should expect ~ £815-£825 gold? SafeBetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wheelybin Posted March 31, 2008 Report Share Posted March 31, 2008 The logic sounds good -but without a firm idea for how much bullion (and liabilities) a central bank has, the numbers are purely hypothetical. Are there any credible estimates of how much the Fed is sitting on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 31, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 31, 2008 GF - presumably this also applied to BoE - therefore are we also saying we should expect ~ £815-£825 gold? SafeBetter The logic sounds good -but without a firm idea for how much bullion (and liabilities) a central bank has, the numbers are purely hypothetical. Are there any credible estimates of how much the Fed is sitting on? As pointed out, the numbers are pure fantasy - an illustration. The Fed's balance is published on the web, but they account for their gold with fantasy (read: historic) prices and do not report gold out on lease (potentially not recoverable). In theory, they hold something between 8,000 and 9,000 metric tonnes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wheelybin Posted March 31, 2008 Report Share Posted March 31, 2008 If we don't know the size of the Fed's gold reserves, isn't this like the monetary version of Schrödinger's cat? The fed is simultaneously solvent and insolvent, until you open the box and see what's inside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 31, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 31, 2008 If we don't know the size of the Fed's gold reserves, isn't this like the monetary version of Schrödinger's cat? The fed is simultaneously solvent and insolvent, until you open the box and see what's inside. That's exactly the point of the example above. The market simply establishes prices that make the Fed solvent. Because it won't go bankrupt anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted March 31, 2008 Report Share Posted March 31, 2008 Looks like we're straying back towards the key 12000 level on the DOW. What will be pulled out of the bag to save it this time? Makes a mockery of those who say that the Fed managed to avert a crisis through its actions of the last few months (and there are plenty of them about). They clearly had no idea what the problem actually was, let alone know what needed to be done to fix it. Why is everyone so keen to declare turning points? It's like those clowns declaring the 'end of history' when the Soviet Union collapsed, as if it meant the western powers would rule unchallenged for all eternity, and the lessons of history were irrelevant. What breathtaking arrogance. They drew their conclusions far too quickly, superficially and complacently, something I see again and again in all spheres of life. They fail to appreciate the nature of a situation even in terms of their own history, let alone the history of other nations and civilisations. I suppose we all have a tendency to overestimate our own importance in the grand scheme of things, so it's only natural to believe that your era or predicament really is different to ones that have gone before. What stuns me is that there are many examples similar to our current crisis to be found within the last 100 years alone, surely it's not asking too much for someone in the mainstream to see the bigger picture? Until they do, they'll keep drawing premature conclusions and they'll keep looking like utter fools when those predictions are smashed. It would be funny if the outcome wasn't going to be so serious. Anyway, rant over, back to the DOW. Will more rate cuts be enough to save it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted March 31, 2008 Report Share Posted March 31, 2008 Not a smackdown today but something potentially worse - a slow unwind. There could be a capitulation drop at the end of this so watch out. Anyone got info on the volume? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted March 31, 2008 Report Share Posted March 31, 2008 Not a smackdown today I think you spoke a bit too soon.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted March 31, 2008 Report Share Posted March 31, 2008 I think you spoke a bit too soon.... Looks like we got the capitulation. I'm not sure we're done yet. Could we get a test of $900 today? We haven't really bounced yet either, so we could have further to go. I haven't seen the volume but I'd imagine it's going to be quite large and sustained. Time for caution methinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gatesy Posted March 31, 2008 Report Share Posted March 31, 2008 Silver in the toilet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted March 31, 2008 Report Share Posted March 31, 2008 Silver in the toilet. Fell at exactly the same time but with an even greater force. Silver is like Gold's special "springy" cousin. The question now is, when is the bottom of the dip. Those clever folks out there always say "buy the dips" ... but spotting one without hindsight and/or a time machine is quite tough IMHO. (looking forward to the arrival of a book on TA from Amazon this week!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted March 31, 2008 Report Share Posted March 31, 2008 Fell at exactly the same time but with an even greater force. Silver is like Gold's special "springy" cousin. The question now is, when is the bottom of the dip. Those clever folks out there always say "buy the dips" ... but spotting one without hindsight and/or a time machine is quite tough IMHO. (looking forward to the arrival of a book on TA from Amazon this week!) This level is good support from a few days ago. I don't think it will hold, but we may get some clues from how quickly we drop through $920. There is strong support around $915 and $905 before we even get to $900. If they are going to have a serious attempt at $900, they'll need to take $920 quickly. Edit: Which they just did. Bugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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