safebetter Posted July 14, 2008 Report Share Posted July 14, 2008 "In fact, in theory gold should not be expected to track such events. The main reason is because bank failures are essentially deflationary events because money is destroyed. If government steps in to guarantee deposits, it is essentially a zero sum game as far as inflation-deflation is concerned. Yes, I know some argue that gold goes up in a deflation but note that gold could not even stay up during the milder disinflation of the 1980s and 1990s. No, there is only one main reason why people should hold gold and that is inflation. We have it and it is here to stay for a long time. That is why the price of gold is going up and I submit that this has a lot more to do with the price of gold than any number of bank worries we have seen." Gold and the Credit Crunch Obviously agree with inflation bit, what do we think about the comments on bank failures being 'zero sum' events and not affecting POG? If I recall gold hit $1034 when the Bear Stearn mess unwound SafeBetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
safebetter Posted July 14, 2008 Report Share Posted July 14, 2008 Yes. And that's what some people don't get. Yes. And also, you better have people betting on gold than e.g. on oil or food. No one needs to eat gold or put it in their gas tanks. So, yes, they will let gold run into the stratosphere. Good point GF - never really thought of it like that. There has to be downside for the western banks though if they are no longer hording the quantities they used to? SafeBetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!) Posted July 14, 2008 Report Share Posted July 14, 2008 China stocks leading the way Inflation and Oil Ratio Bullish for Precious Metals be careful with HK property maybe? I don't think it will take that long however, as the US consumer / economy is collapsing far too quickly for this to be dragged out that long. How do we know this for sure? Believe it or not, this can be forecast by looking at Chinese stocks. Here, you may remember it's been our view for some time that the chart of the Chinese stock market resembles that of the South Sea Trading Company , and that a 100-percent retrace of the bubble that took less than 2-years to build (like the South Sea Bubble), would signal that on a global basis, we are dealing with a Grand Super-Cycle Degree economic / market debacle at present. And sure enough, as you can see in the attached above, Chinese stocks continue to deflate, making one wonder whether authorities will be able to stem the tide prior to the Beijing Olympics. Be that as it may, one thing is for sure, if Chinese stocks do indeed continue to deflate in counter-bubble like fashion (crash), one could only come to one conclusion based on such a result – that being the global economy is contracting / crashing. (i.e. if the Chinese economy is contracting / crashing, this means consumers around the world are demanding less cheap manufactured goods in similar degree.) So, this is why I am suggesting such an outcome would likely be a far better indication of future business conditions not just in China , but also in the US , than just looking at domestic factors / variables. What's more, stocks are future discounting mechanisms, providing a ‘heads up' about future business conditions. Fed to be broke by Christmas - I hope so And based on the speed at which things are happening these days, this is it's bound to happen sooner than later, especially when the Fed is fully defrocked in terms of its ability to lie. When will this be? Answer: When it's broke, which will be when it runs out of assets. At the current rate of depletion, where the Fed is now committed to swap its portfolio of Treasuries for all the bad paper its fraudulent agents have been passing off to the public, the Fed's Portfolio will be gone by Christmas, or early 2009. This of course will mean the only means the Fed will have to continue playing the game will involve the printing press, which will be a ‘death-knell' for the dollar. Gold and silver should begin discounting such a development well before it becomes a reality however, which means even if price managers are able to keep a lid on things through summer, typical seasonal strength should occur this fall and winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gatesy Posted July 14, 2008 Report Share Posted July 14, 2008 Sorry to clog up the thread but someone posted a link on here to a streaming media file a little while ago and said they had some (free) software which could download streamed files for viewback offline later. Can anyone point me in the right direction? I have searched and googled but can't find a good free option...thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Compounded Posted July 14, 2008 Report Share Posted July 14, 2008 What the similarity between Margaret Thatcher and a pound coin. It's hard, brassy and thinks it's a sovereign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted July 14, 2008 Report Share Posted July 14, 2008 Sorry to clog up the thread but someone posted a link on here to a streaming media file a little while ago and said they had some (free) software which could download streamed files for viewback offline later. Can anyone point me in the right direction? I have searched and googled but can't find a good free option...thanks Are you using Firefox? https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/3006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narrowescape Posted July 14, 2008 Report Share Posted July 14, 2008 Sorry to clog up the thread but someone posted a link on here to a streaming media file a little while ago and said they had some (free) software which could download streamed files for viewback offline later. Can anyone point me in the right direction? I have searched and googled but can't find a good free option...thanks Depending on the stream type you might have some success with Miro. It's available for Windows, Mac and Linux http://www.getmiro.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLASH Posted July 14, 2008 Report Share Posted July 14, 2008 In August 07 I was 100% invested in Gold and Silver but gradually reduced my positions. I am now thinking of doing the same I will put around half of my money in tomorrow and if there is a decent pullback invest the other half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted July 14, 2008 Report Share Posted July 14, 2008 Sorry to clog up the thread but someone posted a link on here to a streaming media file a little while ago and said they had some (free) software which could download streamed files for viewback offline later. Can anyone point me in the right direction? I have searched and googled but can't find a good free option...thanks Video Download Software, Players & Converters All legally free options http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=3489 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GTG Posted July 14, 2008 Report Share Posted July 14, 2008 They don't need to pour any more. The money is already out there. Unless interest rates climb well above the M4 money supply growth rate, there is no way to stop prices. We are obviously seeing inflation taking hold across the globe in varying degrees, if it remains unchecked (which is almost guaranteed in the UK and USA in the short term) I presume it will manifest itself in a parabolic curve which by it's very nature would have an inflection point where it rockets upwards vertically. Is that correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgnao Posted July 14, 2008 Report Share Posted July 14, 2008 We are obviously seeing inflation taking hold across the globe in varying degrees, if it remains unchecked (which is almost guaranteed in the UK and USA in the short term) I presume it will manifest itself in a parabolic curve which by it's very nature would have an inflection point where it rockets upwards vertically. Is that correct? 100%, guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GTG Posted July 14, 2008 Report Share Posted July 14, 2008 100%, guaranteed. Thanks, I think I'm getting the hang of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GTG Posted July 14, 2008 Report Share Posted July 14, 2008 I am kind of expecting some kind of counter-intuitive reaction to the bail out news though and would expect gold to take another fishing line drop early this week. If it does I'll be buying heavily and holding, if the uptrend is good it will take care of any minor timing errors pretty quickly, and so long as people avoid buying strength I think there is some very easy money to be made in gold over the coming months. I'm looking at anything below $950 as a gift now, the trick will be to stay brave and make those buys after we drop $15-20 in a heartbeat to get there. Nice to see you back again marceau, I'm another one who enjoys reading your learned comments. I'm thinking that with the precarious state of the regional banks I may miss the boat with some cash I have available for investing if I wait for a drop below $950, is that what you mean when you say "the trick will be to stay brave and make those buys after we drop $15-20" ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted July 14, 2008 Report Share Posted July 14, 2008 I'm beginning to think that marceau is the 85%+ gold shorts :D A few thoughts: 1. The green 40%/year line might be a reasonable base line, below which it is unlikely gold will fall. At least in the short-term. 2. The "2 steps up, 1 step back" pattern looks pretty clear on this chart. If repeated, 2 steps up from $850 takes it to about $1200, with a step back possible to around $1000. 3. With the current level of the Real Fed Funds Rate, we might expect the gold price to go up by between 40% and 80%/year. So somewhere in the shaded region. 4. Where have all he bearish articles gone ? 5. I know I'm going to be too conservative on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted July 15, 2008 Report Share Posted July 15, 2008 Yes. And that's what some people don't get. I didn't get any. [cheap money] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted July 15, 2008 Report Share Posted July 15, 2008 In August 07 I was 100% invested in Gold and Silver but gradually reduced my positions. I am now thinking of doing the same I will put around half of my money in tomorrow and if there is a decent pullback invest the other half. I went 100% in a few weeks ago when it first went up to 940ish.... dipped down a little afterwards but did not regret it for a second. Is anyone going to buy an I-phone? Loving that graph Steve. Jim Rogers tells it like it is on Bloomberg. http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipS...IQvD7yNni2I.asf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted July 15, 2008 Report Share Posted July 15, 2008 Loving that graph Steve. I quite like the conclusion myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted July 15, 2008 Report Share Posted July 15, 2008 Loving that graph Steve. Agreed. It's so simple but so effective. One of those "now why didn't I think of that?!" moments. A great way of looking at the returns. ----- BTW, I noticed jsmineset.com was unreachable last night. Being a techie I looked into it quite a bit and it seemed a whole subnet of addresses around the site were unreachable. This would indicated Jim's hoster / ISP were having issues rather than "someone" got in there and shut him down for whatever reason. This morning the site's giving a SQL error. Which leads me to believe the site at which it's hosted may have had a power failure. That would fit with the symptoms that a whole IP space was down for hours, and now the server's back up but with one or more processes not quite running correctly. I guess we'll find out in due course. But when I first couldn't reach it, I must admit a few conspiracy plots kicked off in the darker, more suspicious parts of my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted July 15, 2008 Report Share Posted July 15, 2008 Particularly good article by Adrian Ash today. http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1216054800.php "Is that where investors today should hide their wealth, securely and safely? Inflation in prices and deflation in assets is an ugly combination. It also turns the "Long Boom" of the last 25 years on its head. So a growing number of advisors would point you to that long-forgotten asset class – physical gold or perhaps silver – as a rare store of wealth. It might also help that you can chain down this wealth behind a thick vault door, deep underground. "There really is no other place to hide," believes Stephen Platt, an analyst at Archer Financial Services. "Gold's about the only real currency out there that might hold value." Even after trebling in price from the low of eight years ago, there may be plenty of room for gold to rise from here. "In 1959, the amount invested in gold was about one-fifth of the market value of all US common stocks," writes Peter Bernstein in his classic, The Power of Gold. "In 1980, the $1.6 trillion invested in gold exceeded the market value of $1.4 trillion in US stocks." The sum total of gold investment lags far behind the value of stock and bond markets today. Indeed, a 2005 study from Tocqueville Asset Management noted that, if taken altogether, "the market cap of all above-ground gold – including central bank reserves – [now] equals about 1.4% of global financial assets. "In 1934 and 1982," on the other hand, "when investor stress reached extreme readings, that percentage was between 20% to 25%." If you wanted to steal a march on the market, you might want to consider moving that portion of your wealth into physical gold today. No, the metal isn't guaranteed to keep gaining as "investor stress" rises to match the Great Depression or early '80s recession. But nor will its value fly away into the air. For as long as the cost of living is rising but asset-prices are falling, that should prove a major advantage over holding bonds, stocks or cash." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted July 15, 2008 Report Share Posted July 15, 2008 Agreed. It's so simple but so effective. One of those "now why didn't I think of that?!" moments. A great way of looking at the returns. ----- BTW, I noticed jsmineset.com was unreachable last night. What you mean is "why did it take you so long to work that out?" :lol: Jim's site was/is down due to Vancouver power outage. I managed to catch a post on there just now about it, before it went down again ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotspur Posted July 15, 2008 Report Share Posted July 15, 2008 yes great report go to gold eagle and read what katz got to say we are going ballistic for years to come and all those furtures will come to pass markets can be CLOSED!!! best bet is in your fist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted July 15, 2008 Report Share Posted July 15, 2008 Gold in the mainstream media again http://uk.reuters.com/article/fundsNews/id...dName=fundsNews NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. gold futures climbed to their highest level in nearly four months on Monday as funds poured into the bullion market amid stock jitters and a record high in gold-backed exchange traded funds. At 10:03 a.m. EDT (1403 GMT), the contract for August delivery GCQ8 on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange was up $9.50 at $970.10 an ounce. The session high was $970.40, the loftiest level since March 19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotspur Posted July 15, 2008 Report Share Posted July 15, 2008 Gold in the mainstream media again http://uk.reuters.com/article/fundsNews/id...dName=fundsNews[/quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotspur Posted July 15, 2008 Report Share Posted July 15, 2008 Gold in the mainstream media again http://uk.reuters.com/article/fundsNews/id...dName=fundsNews yeah but furtures are a paper promise that will get caught in the melt down----like i was right but was in the wrong bus thing---us$ index is a horror ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gatesy Posted July 15, 2008 Report Share Posted July 15, 2008 Depending on the stream type you might have some success with Miro. It's available for Windows, Mac and Linux http://www.getmiro.com/ Thanks, and to ziknik and steve, I will take a look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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