headmelter Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 I've taken additional longs in silver. Seems to have overreacted yet again to the downside. Tomorrow will be important, if they can't smack gold down below $950 by market close then we'll be on the launchpad for next week. What time (UK) does NY trading close? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 What time (UK) does NY trading close? 10.20pm (BST) IIRC ... See the coloured bars at the bottom of http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegoldw.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 955.00 I guess that's it for today. I'm all in. Thank you cartel. Now I don't have to check the market every day hoping for a smackdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 Where's the buying though? I would've expected to see at least a small push up. We got one in Silver. Put simply there's too much fear. That second drop will have knocked the wind out of the bulls for a while, couple that with a decidedly shaky oil price and you've got brown trousers territory for the gold longs. But back on reality street nothing has really changed, just more bad news being spun as good. JPM release a set of less poor than expected (but still awful) results, oil drops to $129 and suddenly the market will be fine? How are people still falling for this? I'm consistently stunned at how little it takes to scare investors away from gold. Just 3 days ago everyone was sure it was going straight through $1000 without ever pulling back. Now they're all convinced we'll be back in the low $900s by the end of the week. I thought we were going to pullback to the $950s and now we have, there has been no technical violation of the uptrend and from the charts and fundamentals it wouldn't be ridiculous to say we're due a nice rally now. Look back at my posts over the last few days, I mentioned that very few will actually buy near the $950 level, they'll be too scared of more falls to realise they're near the bottom. I've been taking long positions furiously today, fear amongst the sheep generally means it's time to buy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
headmelter Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 955.00 I guess that's it for today. I'm all in. Thank you cartel. Now I don't have to check the market every day hoping for a smackdown. I couldn't help myself I've kept half dry powder. Now I'm off to dig a hole in the back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 I couldn't help myself I've kept half dry powder. Now I'm off to dig a hole in the back yard. Sure, I can understand. I decided I don't want to check the markets every day. This afternoon I saw the buying opportunity when I was at work. But I decided I should not trade when at work (one of my old bids was lined up to fill, but it didn't make it). Of course, it didn't last but a similar opportunity came this evening while I could watch closely and time it. So now I can sit back and relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
headmelter Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 Sure, I can understand. I decided I don't want to check the markets every day. This afternoon I saw the buying opportunity when I was at work. But I decided I should not trade when at work (one of my old bids was lined up to fill, but it didn't make it). Of course, it didn't last but a similar opportunity came this evening while I could watch closely and time it. So now I can sit back and relax. I could be all in tomorrow, who knows. But as we say in my part of the world, 'It's great craic!'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TinBrick Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 The volatility today has been quite astounding. Has it? Change on the day was down about 0.4%, difference from high to low was about 1.7%. Isn't this well within normal trading ranges? (I'm not having a dig by the way - I do genuinely want to know if there's something I'm missing!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 Has it? Change on the day was down about 0.4%, difference from high to low was about 1.7%. Isn't this well within normal trading ranges? (I'm not having a dig by the way - I do genuinely want to know if there's something I'm missing!) I'd tend to agree. The big news today is that after days of blatant manipulative knockdowns, and oil falling (implying IR rises, less inflation, and stronger dollar), gold is still refusing to go below 950. We're where we were this time last night, and so its cost the PPT a lot to even maintain the status quo. So what I'm reading from current charts is a great deal of gold price strength! Well done those of you who held fire and bought at 950. I'd suspect the run up today was hot money from oil speculators flowing out of oil and into gold (those smart guys know this is the next bubble in the making). The PPT know this also, which is why they had to change their plans from taking a day off and instead had to dig deep in their pockets late in the day for more money to try to hold gold down. And they basically failed. So I predict more of the same tomorrow - significant run up (perhaps even starting in Asian trade), followed by a reactionary knockdown by PPT that is even less effective than today. THE BIG BATTLE has now begun - smart oil speculators with loads of cash wanting to buy gold up, vs PPT trying increasingly desperately to hold it down. The PPT will become swamped, possibly in a week or so, but definitely in a month or so when the autumn strength returns and inflation has clicked up even further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIGA Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 $875 is the 200dma never forget the 200dma in this gold bull run and never forsake its power to attract gold back to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 It's a big retrace even to the 20 day moving average. Bubb, what do you make of today's action? I would like to have seen a close nearer to the high of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TinBrick Posted July 17, 2008 Report Share Posted July 17, 2008 It's a big retrace even to the 20 day moving average. Sorry, you've lost me there. Yesterday's close (Jul 17) was $20 above the 20DMA and the intra-day low more than $15 above it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted July 18, 2008 Report Share Posted July 18, 2008 I think CC is suggesting that a drop back to a moving average is possible, and that the nearest one is the 20day one, and the drop could therefore be reasonable large. Forgive me if I misinterpret. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted July 18, 2008 Report Share Posted July 18, 2008 My latest thoughts: I haven't put it on, but there is currently a rising trend on the recent lows too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wanderer Posted July 18, 2008 Report Share Posted July 18, 2008 Short selling opportunity presents itself ! Wanderer has just put another 10% of his savings into Gold through BV... I'm hoping people will get wind, sell (this usually happens when I invest in something ) and, this is the neat trick, I'll then buy in some more at a lower price.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TinBrick Posted July 18, 2008 Report Share Posted July 18, 2008 I think CC is suggesting that a drop back to a moving average is possible, and that the nearest one is the 20day one OK ,got hold of the wrong end of the stick - thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted July 18, 2008 Report Share Posted July 18, 2008 Ron Paul talks about Bernanke's testimony Alex Jones & Bob Chapman on the Economy & Depression 6-26-08 http://video.google.com/videosearch?q=Will...amp;sitesearch= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted July 18, 2008 Report Share Posted July 18, 2008 Has it? Change on the day was down about 0.4%, difference from high to low was about 1.7%. Isn't this well within normal trading ranges? (I'm not having a dig by the way - I do genuinely want to know if there's something I'm missing!) If you were using TA to short term trade yesterday you probably would have been fried, as the price swung dramatically up and down in a highly unpredictable manner. Yes, the numbers weren't big, but look at the intraday chart and tell me that wasn't volatile, particularly that last drop, which totally shattered a solid $20 move up in minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TinBrick Posted July 18, 2008 Report Share Posted July 18, 2008 If you were using TA to short term trade yesterday you probably would have been fried, as the price swung dramatically up and down in a highly unpredictable manner. Yes, the numbers weren't big, but look at the intraday chart and tell me that wasn't volatile, particularly that last drop, which totally shattered a solid $20 move up in minutes. OK, makes sense, thanks for the clarification. (I'll stick to my long term trades - less stressful!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted July 18, 2008 Report Share Posted July 18, 2008 Short selling opportunity presents itself ! Wanderer has just put another 10% of his savings into Gold through BV... I'm hoping people will get wind, sell (this usually happens when I invest in something ) and, this is the neat trick, I'll then buy in some more at a lower price.... I always accept that if I buy I will see it at least 15% less, maybe more, sometime later. So a good correction might be on its way for those waiting. Just glad I don't have to think about it every day now, checking the markets when I should concentrate on other things like work (it's a long term investment for me anyway). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sossij Posted July 18, 2008 Report Share Posted July 18, 2008 THE BIG BATTLE has now begun - smart oil speculators with loads of cash wanting to buy gold up, vs PPT trying increasingly desperately to hold it down. The PPT will become swamped, possibly in a week or so, but definitely in a month or so when the autumn strength returns and inflation has clicked up even further. It's all terribly exciting isn't it? (Just added some more to this weeks haul) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted July 18, 2008 Report Share Posted July 18, 2008 This is interesting: US Government to Intervene to Prevent US Dollar Collapse http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5500.html Artificial Government Manipulation to Fail and Shows Very Strong Fundamentals of Gold While this could lead to short term weakness in the gold price, it would be very bullish for gold in the medium to long term as it would clearly show that the fundamentals of the dollar are very weak and conversely the fundamentals of gold are very strong. Many investors and institutions internationally would take positions accordingly in anticipation of free market forces and real economic fundamentals resulting in markets reaching their corresponding fair value as they always do – this fair value for gold is likely to be multiples of its current price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Thyme Posted July 18, 2008 Report Share Posted July 18, 2008 Smackdown resumes in earnest $951 achieved - time for a long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgnao Posted July 18, 2008 Report Share Posted July 18, 2008 This is interesting: US Government to Intervene to Prevent US Dollar Collapse http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5500.html The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done; and there is no new thing under the sun. http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/judge052101.html. Lessons from the London Gold Pool The ill-fated London Gold Pool affords us many clear lessons today. 1. Manipulation of markets by governments, aided by central bankers and powerful financial institutions does exist, especially when nations' currencies, and particularly the world's reserve currency, are at risk. As stated at the outset, throughout all of history, governments have eventually become deeply involved in the free market process, for their own ends. It is not unreasonable to expect that, if governments became heavily involved in suppressing the price of gold in the 1960's, there is no reason why they would not today. 2. History has conclusively shown that manipulation of the free market process ultimately fails; no amount of government control, regulation or price manipulation can change the workings of the free market over the long term, the London Gold Pool being no exception. No amount of gold, air-shipped to market by the gold pool could satisfy demand when investors decided, on mass, to storm the market. 3. Those behind orchestrating market intervention suffer great loss when their efforts eventually end. By the time the gold pool was officially disbanded in early 1968, it had cost the member countries many billions of dollars (a lot of dollars in those days). The Bank of England never again regained its former position and prestige within the world gold market after the collapse of the London Gold Pool. As one London bullion dealer put it "the Bank of England are no longer the masters, they are just a post office or warehouse where gold is stored before it comes to the market". 4. Markets that have been artificially capped, catapult dramatically when market suppression ends. In the 12 years from 1968 to the peak of the bull market, the price of gold had rallied by 2300%. It has been said that "the greater and the longer the manipulation, the greater the eventual price is going be". Today, with far greater amounts of gold involved in the price suppression scheme (10,000 – 15,000 ton versus 3,000 ton in the gold pool era), over a longer period of time, and with far more at stake, it can only be concluded that the eventual price of gold may well run much higher than the 2300% of the late 60's and 70's. At today's prices, a similar move of just 2300% would price gold at a staggering $6,400 per oz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted July 18, 2008 Report Share Posted July 18, 2008 This is interesting: US Government to Intervene to Prevent US Dollar Collapse http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5500.html They can't just stand idly by and watch all this happen without a fight," O'Neill added. Like the subtle understatement of interesting there Steve. Great article. Yes, I thought it would not all be so easy. I have always thought the dollar would not give up without a fight. Thankfully, it will help me top up my position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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