GOLD

[pieshop]

I thought my questions were reasonable? And you still haven't provided anything more than extremely vague answers. Now don't take offense, but my trolldar went off when I saw your post. However, it wasn't an all klaxons blaring signal, hence my suggestion that more contextual detail from you might encourage responses. Is that input satisfactory?

 

 

Why : because it is my homework.

with whom : my training buddies.

why: because that's the scenario I have been given to defend.

 

any input from you?

 

[Johan van der Smut]

Hi Johan van der Smut

Am I right in sensing that you're looking for something solid to grasp onto to help you choosing how to manage your PM investments? If so, please may I suggest you bring it back to basics: Just decide for yourself whether you think the next few years will be all about inflation/stagflation or deflation - without getting confused into thinking the credit crunch 'is' deflation (as its not)

 

If the former, keep and buy, if the latter then sell

 

Hi bigbigt

 

As you'll have gathered, I'm a layman in these matters. I mean, I'm a sharp guy, but if the world's top economic minds can't decide what's going to happen, what hope do the rest of us have? So yes, I guess you could say I'm looking for something solid to grasp onto. Thanks for your advice.

[torino]

pieshop

 

Is that input satisfactory?

 

no.

 

[G0ldfinger]

The problem that some of us have is that it's difficult to judge whether your position is self assured or fundamentalist.

Smut

 

My position is well-researched. I spent a lot of time on reading almost anything I could find on gold.

 

The main phase of the gold bull has not even started yet.

 

Edit: typos.

[frizzers]

http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68

[qwerty]

What are peoples thoughts on the 300dma? We are at about that level, and that has held well over the past 3-4 years.

 

 

I believe Marc Faber likes that indicator.

 

 

Gold remains my favourite asset class, but I wouldn’t rule out a decline in prices to below US$800 before the next upward leg gets under way. As Ron Griess observes, the gold price has tended to bounce off the 300-day moving average – currently at US$741. The US dollar may have reached a selling climax in mid-March and I expect a rally, which may have some legs as dollar shorts will be quick to cover their positions.

 

By Marc Faber for The Daily Reckoning May 2008

[Johan van der Smut]

Smut

 

My position is weel-researched. I spend a lot of time on reading almost anything I could find on gold.

 

The main phase of the gold bull has not even started yet.

 

Glad to hear it.

 

(It's not my real name, btw. It was Goldmember's name in the Austin Powers film.)

[pieshop]

Well then, good luck with the 'research'.

 

pieshop

 

Is that input satisfactory?

 

no.

 

[G0ldfinger]

Hi bigbigt

 

As you'll have gathered, I'm a layman in these matters. I mean, I'm a sharp guy, but if the world's top economic minds can't decide what's going to happen, what hope do the rest of us have? So yes, I guess you could say I'm looking for something solid to grasp onto. Thanks for your advice.

Are you talking of Aladdin Greenspan, Heli Ben and Hank "Strong Dollar" Paulson? If so, just disregard EVERYTHING they say (to be on the safe side).

 

If you're talking of Jim Puplava, Jim Sinclair, Jim Rogers, Matt Simmons, Puru Saxena, John Williams, James Turk, our very own DrBubb and many more*, they have been saying the same for years and their minds are made up as far as I can tell.

 

EDIT: * like Marc Faber, Antal Fekete, Bill Bonner, John Stepek, and our very own cgnao...

[torino]

Well then, good luck with the 'research'.

 

pieshop: your answer and attitude are interesting.

Do you always react like that or do the questions disturb you?

[pieshop]

lol

 

pieshop: your answer and attitude are interesting.

Do you always react like that or do the questions disturb you?

 

[electroweak]

Hi bigbigt

 

As you'll have gathered, I'm a layman in these matters. I mean, I'm a sharp guy, but if the world's top economic minds can't decide what's going to happen, what hope do the rest of us have? So yes, I guess you could say I'm looking for something solid to grasp onto. Thanks for your advice.

I know my advice was not solicited, but here's one thing that immediately comes to mind:

real interest rates.

 

Sure, if the Fed or BoE put IRs up to 15%, I'd think probably sell my gold. But that just ain't gonna happen until a Volker-like hawk takes the helm.

[G0ldfinger]

What's going on in the peanut gallery today? Newbies like Smuttie and Pieshop suddenly come out from the woods where they have been hiding and start stiring up our lovely gold thread here.

[pieshop]

Point taken - i'll shut up now

 

What's going on in the peanut gallery today? Newbies like Smuttie and Pieshop suddenly come out from the woods where they have been hiding and start stiring up our lovely gold thread here.

 

[torino]

pieshop: you are funny.

Tell me : do you hold gold?

[Johan van der Smut]

What's going on in the peanut gallery today? Newbies like Smuttie and Pieshop suddenly come out from the woods where they have been hiding and start stiring up our lovely gold thread here.

 

It's called "crapping yourself because your investments appear to be tanking" and "challenging what was arguably becoming an increasingly complacent discussion (except when Magpie or wrongmove stuck their oar in) in the hope of gaining reassurance and enlightenment".

 

 

PS I like the moniker "Smuttie" though.

[G0ldfinger]

It's called "crapping yourself because your investments appear to be tanking" and "challenging what was arguably becoming an increasingly complacent discussion (except then Magpie or wrongmove stuck their oar in) in the hope of gaining reassurance and enlightenment".

 

The fundamentals have not changed. What we see is a nice correction in a roaring bull market.

 

The same people who were asleep at the wheel when the whole mortgage mess developed (or who even caused it) are now telling us the (commodities) inflation threat is over? Yeah, sure. I am betting against them with all I have.

 

Edit: typo.

[pieshop]

Not really. I'm in with 10% gold and currently subscribe to the 'hold a percentage in gold, and hope it does badly' view. I'm interested in what happens, but certainly not 'crapping myself'.

 

It's called "crapping yourself because your investments appear to be tanking" and "challenging what was arguably becoming an increasingly complacent discussion (except then Magpie or wrongmove stuck their oar in) in the hope of gaining reassurance and enlightenment".

 

 

PS I like the moniker "Smuttie" though.

 

[Johan van der Smut]

Not really. I'm in with 10% gold and currently subscribe to the 'hold a percentage in gold, and hope it does badly' view. I'm interested in what happens, but certainly not 'crapping myself'.

 

Sorry, I wasn't presuming to speak for your bowels; only my own.

[torino]

on this 'poetic' imagery, I am off for some rest.

 

I think I am starting to have my scenario : 99% psychology, 1% logical!

[Johan van der Smut]

If you're talking of Jim Puplava, Jim Sinclair, Jim Rogers, Matt Simmons, Puru Saxena, John Williams, James Turk, our very own DrBubb and many more*, they have been saying the same for years and their minds are made up as far as I can tell.

 

EDIT: * like Marc Faber, Antal Fekete, Bill Bonner, John Stepek, and our very own cgnao...

 

Ah, now, you were doing well until you mentioned cgnao. I don't want to get into the debate about whether he's a visionary or a nutter, because frankly I don't know. He's clearly a clued-up guy. But can someone answer me this: why aren't more of the City and Wall Street's finest preparing for the end of civilisation as we know it? Isn't it just possible that he's a pathological catastrophist with an advanced knowledge of finance?

 

I'm not trying to be rude - I'm just throwing peanuts because I've found many of the discussions here to be rather incestuous of late. And tonight, with my money on the line, I'm asking the kind of questions that have been bugging me for some time.

 

EDIT: As for John Stepek - well, I enjoy his Money Mornings very much, but the question remains: why would any financial whizz worth his salt go into a badly paid profession like journalism when there are much bigger rewards elsewhere?

[malco]

It is a little unsettling to see gold drop >$30 in a day. A similar slump happened after the peak in Spring 2006, with the price falling briefly below the 200 day MA, as it has done again in the last few days. I think the slump is so deep this time because not only do you have seasonal demand low but also the fall in oil prices and people thinking that the worst is past.

 

The POG should pick up again towards the end of the month.

[G0ldfinger]

Ah, now, you were doing well until you mentioned cgnao. I don't want to get into the debate about whether he's a visionary or a nutter, because frankly I don't know. He's clearly a clued-up guy. But can someone answer me this: why aren't more of the City and Wall Street's finest preparing for the end of civilisation as we know it? Isn't it just possible that he's a pathological catastrophist with an advanced knowledge of finance?

 

I'm not trying to be rude - I'm just throwing peanuts because I've found many of the discussions here to be rather incestuous of late. And tonight, with my money on the line, I'm asking the kind of questions that have been bugging me for some time.

So far, cgnao has been pretty spot on. Also, there are some guys in the City who seem to know that the whole thing has to collapse at some stage. As for the City's and Wall Street's 'finest', they bought triple-A until they went bust and had to be bailed out with our money. What exactly do you expect from THEM?

[warpig]

There are 13 question marks in your original post.... No one is going to give you the detailed answers you ask for. If you can summarise it in to a couple of direct questions then you will probably get a reply.

 

on this 'poetic' imagery, I am off for some rest.

 

I think I am starting to have my scenario : 99% psychology, 1% logical!

 

[Armchair]

My thanks to everyone for their thoughts.

 

For myself, I remain someone who believes that on the balance of probabilities gold will probably go up in the medium/long term. I have to admit though that my confidence has fallen from - to give an illustrative figure - maybe 70% to 55% today.

 

Goldfinger et al are quite correct in that the fundamentals*, on a historical basis, are very strong. But, as someone once said the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. I certainly don't think it's possible to trade in and out of this market regularly and expect anything but losses.

 

My worry is that despite the fundamentals, despite a new russian war... the reality is that since March the average price has dropped steadily. The five year chart looks ugly.

 

This recent drop from $950ish has been precipitous, I told myself I'd sell at a safe-ish $840 if it dropped that far, and today I duly did. This is by no means the end of my flirtation with Gold though I hope, I will buy back in at some stage as long as the price does not continue its current fall.

 

...I see the price as an elastic band, the markets/PPT/whatever you want to call the realities moving the price, can push and push the price down, but in the end if they slip for a second it just means that the harder they pushed on the way down the harder it will spring back into their faces on the way up... this spring back up could be the price rocket many have predicted...

 

It is of course also possible that the markets push the elastic band so hard it snaps.

 

*-Monetary inflation for 15 years

-HPC

-Stock market over-valuation

-Transfer of wealth from west to east and possibility/likelihood of financial paradigm shift occurring in the process

-Real interest rates negative

-Close to? at? peak oil

 

In the final analysis I may have less confidence in gold than I did a month ago, but where else is a better place for your cash right now?