GOLD

[drbubb]

Any ideas as to what has sparked this drop Bubb?

I wasnt expecting to see below 850 again

 

Isnt it obvious?

Oil was down, so they "ran the stops"

 

[Justin Thyme]

$822

 

Ah well, we were warned ! Hope we don't see the $650 that's been bandied about.

[bitbigt]

Isnt it obvious?

Oil was down, so they "ran the stops"

...and once they've triggered these stops, they can't do that same trick again!

[harvipark]

Isnt it obvious?

Oil was down, so they "ran the stops"

 

Ok cheers

 

So have they done this to buy on the cheap and so could be see the price rally from here?

 

[LauraB]

...and once they've triggered these stops, they can't do that same trick again!

 

Is that 100% guaranteed bigtbigt?

EDIT:-Ignore, I've just got my head around this one.

 

& may I at this point say a big thank you to a certain European bank who screwed up my transfer to BV today.

[notanewmember]

Dont think the Crude Oil 200 MA is broken, so goldbugs should breath easy.

[drbubb]

...and once they've triggered these stops, they can't do that same trick again!

 

Right.

Have a look at : Oil (USO) vs. Gold (GLD)

 

Gold's huge stop position has allowed them to force it lower than Oil

 

USO Support:

Oil-$110 x 0.80 = USO-$88

But the charts show lower support, namely about USO-$82.

And that's equivalent to WTI-$102.50 per barrel

[azazel]

I have to admit, it's got me scratching my head. Obviously somebody is selling, but who ? Banks ? Private investors ?

 

I'm off to www.gata.org before I start thinking of ringing my coin dealer.

 

To be fair, gold did make a huge gain from August 2007. In the 1970 gold bull the rises and corrections were even more volatile. So I guess we are going to have to get used to the idea if we are going to stay in.

[drbubb]

Gold longs are selling, because their stops got hit.

Triggered by fears that oil will fall lower, and maybe Central bank selling

 

I am kicking myself:

I predicted the drop in Oil, but somehow thought Gold might be immune,

Silly thinking, it turns out

[aardvark]

wow thats a huge drop - and i bought recently as well! doh.

[torino]

Hi again,

 

I still have my presentation to prepare and to defend the "impossible".

Do you mind, putting in some of your thoughts regarding the questions below?

This would really help me ( I usually like winning) .

 

 

 

Hi everyone,

 

I have had the unfortunate role of defending the "impossible" , i.e. gold going

as low as 666. I was myself suspicious when the number 666 came out, but

not being in occultism, I take it as a mere number

 

- how would you, gold holders, react if gold was to go to 800? 750? 700? 666?

up to which level would you hold? when would you expect call margins?

how low would have gold to go for you to sell? If you were to sell, would you

sell bit by bit or all in one go? would any of these numbers make you sweat or bring panick?

 

- how would you react if this movement was slow and steady?

- how would you react if this movement was accompanied with a lot of volatility?

 

- for this to happen : what % of world bank, IMF and other CBs gold reserve would have to be sold?

 

- who would benefit from these falls?

 

What do you believe is the likelihood of these levels being reached ( may be a why would help me win )

and what amount in loss $ this would represent

- 800 : likelihood / why / loss

- 750 : likelihood / why / loss

- 700 : likelihood / why / loss

- 666 : likelihood / why / loss

 

[Silent reader]

To be fair, gold did make a huge gain from August 2007. In the 1970 gold bull the rises and corrections were even more volatile. So I guess we are going to have to get used to the idea if we are going to stay in.

 

 

Indeed, I'll be staying in

 

I just never expected to see a drop like that in the space of an hour

 

Still, buying opportunities present themselves....... as to when though, I don't think I have that kind of foresight to call a bottom, especially after today. But I guess I’ll be getting a better price this month on my physical

 

 

 

[kernull]

Gold longs are selling, because their stops got hit.

Triggered by fears that oil will fall lower, and maybe Central bank selling

 

I am kicking myself:

I predicted the drop in Oil, but somehow thought Gold might be immune,

Silly thinking, it turns out

 

not much time for this sell off left, friday is the lunar eclipse, this day should mark the bottoms in commodities, not sure how low oil would go, I think it will bottom at 105, just as it happend year ago with 55 bottom

[bitbigt]

Gold longs are selling, because their stops got hit.

Triggered by fears that oil will fall lower, and maybe Central bank selling

 

I am kicking myself:

I predicted the drop in Oil, but somehow thought Gold might be immune,

Silly thinking, it turns out

...I suspect you probably thought (as I did) that gold would fall but no where near as much as oil.

 

I still believe that was the 'correct' expectation, had they not manipulated the USDX higher and talked up the deflation story (i.e., had oil just naturally corrected).

 

I agree that Oil still has some falling to do, but

- gold has just had all its stops blown away

- the dollar rally is loosing steam

...so gold may now become more resilient and not fall in lock-step with oil the way it has been

 

Ultimately, these are all short term events - only relevant if your trying to day-trade gold (which I think is madness). For me, the one and only question that I'd like to ask an economic crystal ball would be "what is Western CPI going to be throughout the next several years" ...the truth please, not the story coming out of CBs (i.e., high this year, and naturally falling back to target thereafter)

 

A: If the crystal ball told me the CB story is correct, then gold (buying at these prices) must be seen as a wise investment for the time frame of decades

 

B: If the crystal ball told me that the globe as a whole is entering a period like the 70s, then gold will go through the roof sometime in the next one or few years.

 

Applying my best scientific objectivity to the wealth of current and historical data out there (which is what I'm trained to do) I feel it has to be answer B. And, to bolster my belief further, I'm now looking for articles from the early/mid 70's predicting slowdown and deflation back then also! ...anyone got such texts?

[Silent reader]

not much time for this sell off left, friday is the lunar eclipse, this day should mark the bottoms in commodities, not sure how low oil would go, I think it will bottom at 105, just as it happend year ago with 55 bottom

 

Not being funny, but what has a lunar eclipse got to do with the price of Commodities ?

 

 

[drbubb]

Re: GAPS

I think there is one from Dec. at something like GLD-80, perhaps this move will

fill that, and then find buying

 

Here it is- approx. GLD$79-80

just prior to Christmas

[Bobsta]

I am kicking myself:

I predicted the drop in Oil, but somehow thought Gold might be immune,

Silly thinking, it turns out

I feel the same on the whole "sideways summer" thing. It was predicted by many who are extremely knowledgable in Gold, yet I chose, for some unknown reason, to worry about it but keep my positions open. Similarly with the August low. I knew it was likely but for some reason didn't go with that view.

 

Today's cost me about a twelfth what it would a month ago - so maybe I'm learning.

 

 

[Wanderer]

I am absolutely not enjoying this ride downwards having loaded up pretty heavily at what now looks like a recent top. I am further absolutely not enjoying this ride downwards as I refused to put in stops on my recent purchases on account of having previously been stopped out of profitable occasions on account of price volatility.

 

Some thoughts: I was back in the UK recently and despite the recent drops I was feeling pretty confident about the longer term picture on Gold as a result of rising inflation - very evident when you come back from overseas. However today's action has eroded large chunks of that confidence - Gold always seems to move much quicker coming down than going up! I guess this is the trading dilemma - stay in and risk further losses or get out and take a real live loss. I'm holding (I think) but I guess a lot of people in situations less favourable to holding than my own will be selling up at these levels of losses.

 

Mrs Wanderer won't be impressed. Her 5% in a bank is looking quite profitable in some ways right now!

[torino]

Wanderer,

 

As you have no stops, is there any level - in the most impossible scenario - at which you would have to get out even if

you didn't want to?

[electroweak]

Has gold gone past exchange limits or something? This wide spread I have never seen before!

[Bobsta]

Wanderer,

 

As you have no stops, is there any level - in the most impossible scenario - at which you would have to get out even if

you didn't want to?

fantastic ... Sorry to be blunt, but what is your obsession with people being so badly burned that they have to "get out"?

 

I suspect the level varies massively from person to person and from time to time. For any using easily tradable methods (vs physical holding) they may choose to exit and re-enter the market to a varying degree on a regular basis. As such, there is no "sell up" price.

 

Most people's opinion on when to sell will also based on the wider state of world economies, as such it's difficult to pick an exit price here and now.

[bitbigt]

Hi LauraB - I second everything people have said in response to your posted question, and you're clearly on the ball!

But for whatever its worth (and this is NOT investment advice) I think the bottom is in for gold in Sterling, and there or thereabouts for silver.

Sorry LauraB! ...but I'm glad I made clear it was NOT investment advice

 

I felt the 850 floor would hold, but knew full well that if it didn't we'd drop quite quickly. Then the PPT decided to run the stops and I'm still trying to interpret golds response. Had we hit 800 or below, then I'd have concluded that sentiment had been wiped out for a while. Had we held with just a 1-2% drop I'd have found that very bullish. But ending up in the 820-830 range is mixed ...overall more bullish than bearish is my current view.

 

But we did break through the 850 floor, and oil is still likely to go down, so my short term expectation is that we'll see 800, or even 750 in a worst case scenario (all depends on USD going forward - see next post).

 

So I'm holding off on doubling up my silver holdings for a while longer, and will try to hold fire until we get closer to 14. But if I wasn't holding already, I'd be buying half now and waiting on something closer to 14 to invest the other half. My time frame for this investment is months to decades.

[radge]

Booger me! Did someone discover the Philosopher's Stone @ 16:30A today?

[Bobsta]

Has gold gone past exchange limits or something? This wide spread I have never seen before!

I don't know the source of your data - but is that really spread info? Or just period candles? If the latter, it shows unusually large volatility during the periods (5mins, 10mins, whatever they are).

[Wanderer]

Wanderer,

 

As you have no stops, is there any level - in the most impossible scenario - at which you would have to get out even if

you didn't want to?

 

Fair question fantastic,

 

Yes, but I haven't decided it yet. This may sound naive, but it stems from a considered conviction that Gold will go up. My chief concern is that conviction stems not from a correct analysis of the situation (I still think it does) but from misjudged analysis as a result of incomplete understanding on my part or group-think at GEI etc. Perhaps I should have been hanging out at Singing Pig etc.!

 

I STR'd a while ago (too early, but not much much too early) and that was based on similar convictions about the unsustainability of property (now coming to pass in an aggresive manner). My biggest regret was not acting on my Gold conviction earlier. Unfortunately I didn't then have the luxury of the investment time horizon I have today.

 

I don't need my money to hand for a while, so as long as I remain confident in the medium-long term for Gold I don't want to risk setting a stop just yet.

 

Fantastic, let me ask you the reverse question, do you have a position in Gold and, if so, what is your 'get out' price?

 

Wanderer